Kieran Lucia
@kieranlucia.bsky.social
Director at Incisive Health. All things health policy and UK politics
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Number crunching: Individuals arrested within five days for suspected manslaughter after fire apparently related to building materials ripped through seven Hong Kong apartment blocks v individuals arrested over Grenfell
From the new Private Eye, out now.
From the new Private Eye, out now.
December 11, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Number crunching: Individuals arrested within five days for suspected manslaughter after fire apparently related to building materials ripped through seven Hong Kong apartment blocks v individuals arrested over Grenfell
From the new Private Eye, out now.
From the new Private Eye, out now.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Just seen an article on BBC Sport suggesting that Trump's FIFA peace prize award may have been in someway corrupt. And I am shocked to my core.
December 9, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Just seen an article on BBC Sport suggesting that Trump's FIFA peace prize award may have been in someway corrupt. And I am shocked to my core.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
between this and evangelicalism’s tendency to downplay Jesus’ Godhood (via the sophistry of Wayne Grudem, et al) in order to shore up complementarianism (???), I’m growing worried that American Arianism with Aryan Commitments is, like, two blog posts away from coming into full existence
ok it’s legitimately funny that they can’t even throw red meat to Catholics without falling into heresy
December 8, 2025 at 8:43 PM
between this and evangelicalism’s tendency to downplay Jesus’ Godhood (via the sophistry of Wayne Grudem, et al) in order to shore up complementarianism (???), I’m growing worried that American Arianism with Aryan Commitments is, like, two blog posts away from coming into full existence
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Some of the best content on the FT.com is not being produced by FT journalists, but by below-the-line commenter Winter Cruise Allowance.
Here's their take on the new taxes on cash held in stocks-and-shares ISAs:
Here's their take on the new taxes on cash held in stocks-and-shares ISAs:
December 8, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Some of the best content on the FT.com is not being produced by FT journalists, but by below-the-line commenter Winter Cruise Allowance.
Here's their take on the new taxes on cash held in stocks-and-shares ISAs:
Here's their take on the new taxes on cash held in stocks-and-shares ISAs:
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
At some point politicians and commentators in Europe might want to start defending our system as really not too bad and far better than any realistic alternative notwithstanding frustration that we aren't all richer.
Elon Musk and his Russian friends call for the abolishment of the EU
December 6, 2025 at 7:56 PM
At some point politicians and commentators in Europe might want to start defending our system as really not too bad and far better than any realistic alternative notwithstanding frustration that we aren't all richer.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
It sure looks like Russian intelligence attempted to use military drones to assassinate the President of Ukraine inside an EU country.
Looking forward to more thoughts from Belgium on why freezing Russian assets is an escalatory move that might compromise the peace process.
Looking forward to more thoughts from Belgium on why freezing Russian assets is an escalatory move that might compromise the peace process.
Christ on a cracker — these seemingly hostile drones only missed Zelensky’s plane because he was unexpectedly early www.thejournal.ie/drones-dubli...
Four unidentified military-style drones breached no-fly zone to target Zelenskyy's arrival in Dublin
Gardaí are investigating whether the drones took off from land in Dublin or from an undetected ship.
www.thejournal.ie
December 5, 2025 at 9:22 AM
It sure looks like Russian intelligence attempted to use military drones to assassinate the President of Ukraine inside an EU country.
Looking forward to more thoughts from Belgium on why freezing Russian assets is an escalatory move that might compromise the peace process.
Looking forward to more thoughts from Belgium on why freezing Russian assets is an escalatory move that might compromise the peace process.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Indeed. This is not the BBC's job and to make it worse, in the same piece, Chris Mason again lurches into opinion and gives government carte blanche when he absolutely should not have!
No that's not *your* on *our behalf*. Your job is to report the story, presenting all sides fairly and then *we* call it. What Mason is saying here is fundamentally not what the bbc is for!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
December 1, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Indeed. This is not the BBC's job and to make it worse, in the same piece, Chris Mason again lurches into opinion and gives government carte blanche when he absolutely should not have!
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
I am very suspicious of this 43 accesses by 32 IPs as I know I accessed it twice and I know at least half a dozen other people who accessed it at least once, probably more.
Do I really know a third of the people who got it early, directly? Or is this an undercount?
Do I really know a third of the people who got it early, directly? Or is this an undercount?
For the record, one of these was a sketchwriter who downloaded it to his phone for the LOLs.
December 1, 2025 at 3:16 PM
I am very suspicious of this 43 accesses by 32 IPs as I know I accessed it twice and I know at least half a dozen other people who accessed it at least once, probably more.
Do I really know a third of the people who got it early, directly? Or is this an undercount?
Do I really know a third of the people who got it early, directly? Or is this an undercount?
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
There is an actual interesting little deceit in the budget, namely ther have the OBR still forecasting based on increasing net immigration back to 300-350k whilst the Home Secretary is promising to bring it down from 200k, which does dissolve about half the headroom, but somehow we're doing vibes.
Think this is exactly right - political journalism that is completely abstracted from policy, which was not the norm before 2017, has become the default. Impossible to have a serious attempt to either shrink what the state does or widen the tax base (have to do at least one) on that basis.
All this budget news, claims, counter claims is confusing, but two things of consequence.
1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.
2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.
2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
December 1, 2025 at 1:38 PM
There is an actual interesting little deceit in the budget, namely ther have the OBR still forecasting based on increasing net immigration back to 300-350k whilst the Home Secretary is promising to bring it down from 200k, which does dissolve about half the headroom, but somehow we're doing vibes.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
I am consistently amazed the Building Safety Regulator isn’t a much bigger story. It’s brought house building in London to a total halt, but it’s also brought cladding remedy works to a halt, too. Which is costing leaseholders FORTUNES, halting sales, and leaving people living in unsafe buildings.
... at the Building Safety Regulator - which has lead to 9 month delays at this stage alone:
www.building.co.uk/news/nine-mo...
www.building.co.uk/news/nine-mo...
Nine month wait to get building safety sign-off for new builds, regulator admits
When new regulations were introduced 18 months, planned target was to get decisions made with 12 weeks
www.building.co.uk
December 1, 2025 at 9:28 AM
I am consistently amazed the Building Safety Regulator isn’t a much bigger story. It’s brought house building in London to a total halt, but it’s also brought cladding remedy works to a halt, too. Which is costing leaseholders FORTUNES, halting sales, and leaving people living in unsafe buildings.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
The Chancellor's interviews today are the definition of the performance of scrutiny - it looks dogged and aggressive, but there was absolutely no chance that it was going to reveal anything important or in any way actually probe the decisions in a budget built on sand!
It is *flabbergasting* that we’ve had a budget delivered that increases borrowing in the short term, when costs are very high, and depends on spending cuts and tax rises in election year to hit its overall targets, and the broadcast media are more interested in inane process stories.
It’s an indictment of our media that more time is being spent on whether Reeves lied about the need to raise taxes than on the actual substance of the policies announced on Wednesday.
November 30, 2025 at 11:27 AM
The Chancellor's interviews today are the definition of the performance of scrutiny - it looks dogged and aggressive, but there was absolutely no chance that it was going to reveal anything important or in any way actually probe the decisions in a budget built on sand!
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Funny to think a year ago, most Tory MPs thought Starmer had a clever but cynical plan to bank the changes Sunak made on immigration and declare victory, rather than to keep holing himself under the waterline.
PM describes net migration of 205k as "a step in the right direction". His govt has no public position on a sustainable level of immigration is, nor any known process to decide what, why & how. Starmer is now implying he wants it significantly lower
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Net migration drop ‘step in the right direction’ – Starmer
Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has fallen sharply since then.
www.standard.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Funny to think a year ago, most Tory MPs thought Starmer had a clever but cynical plan to bank the changes Sunak made on immigration and declare victory, rather than to keep holing himself under the waterline.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Headline on The World at One just now:
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
November 27, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Headline on The World at One just now:
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Feels like the most important Budget chart from a market point of view. Same game being played again.
November 27, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Feels like the most important Budget chart from a market point of view. Same game being played again.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Doing a U-turn on a tax the market both wanted and expected on the day of the budget itself would have been absolute smackhead behaviour. From great piece by @pronouncedalva.bsky.social www.newstatesman.com/cover-story/...
November 25, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Doing a U-turn on a tax the market both wanted and expected on the day of the budget itself would have been absolute smackhead behaviour. From great piece by @pronouncedalva.bsky.social www.newstatesman.com/cover-story/...
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
A ‘mansion tax’ on homes worth over £2m to raise about £400/450m a year is everything wrong with a ‘smorgasbord’ approach.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Homes worth more than £2mn set to be hit by Budget raid on.ft.com/4rocFhe
Homes worth more than £2mn set to be hit by Budget raid
‘Mansion tax’ set to affect more than 100,000 properties, mostly in London and the south-east
on.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:03 PM
A ‘mansion tax’ on homes worth over £2m to raise about £400/450m a year is everything wrong with a ‘smorgasbord’ approach.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Trump in a room with a very charismatic person results in like half a day of Trump agreeing with everything that person said, so this has the potential to be very, very funny.
Trump says he’s meeting with “communist” Mamdani at the White House on Friday
November 20, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Trump in a room with a very charismatic person results in like half a day of Trump agreeing with everything that person said, so this has the potential to be very, very funny.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reeves in Zugzwang
Incremental politics no longer works
open.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Here's an extraordinarily cynical take: did the government talk up the likelihood of a manifesto-breaking income tax rise in the knowledge that it would push down gilt yields in the window the OBR will use for its forecasts? Rowing back now pushes up yields but too late to enter the forecast on 26th
And there we go 10y opened up 11 basis points erasing 1/3 of the rally since October.
39 minutes until the bond markets make reeves reconsider I reckon.
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Here's an extraordinarily cynical take: did the government talk up the likelihood of a manifesto-breaking income tax rise in the knowledge that it would push down gilt yields in the window the OBR will use for its forecasts? Rowing back now pushes up yields but too late to enter the forecast on 26th
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Yes, I think this is what the “it’s smart not to do income tax” stuff is missing. If you remove salary sacrifice on someone’s pension contributions you are increasing their income tax! If you freeze thresholds you are increasing their income tax!
Issue for Labour now isn't whether they break their manifesto pledge on tax. It is whether they do so in a way which is blatant, honest but sustainable - or whether they do so by a myriad of complex and likely insufficient means whilst arguing they are not.
Imho, one seems more toxic than the other
Imho, one seems more toxic than the other
November 14, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Yes, I think this is what the “it’s smart not to do income tax” stuff is missing. If you remove salary sacrifice on someone’s pension contributions you are increasing their income tax! If you freeze thresholds you are increasing their income tax!
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
I am obliged to report that when the No 10 spokesman gave this part of the statement there was a brief but heartfelt outbreak of laughter from journalists, one of whom later asked if the PM might thus be interested in a bridge he had to sell.
November 13, 2025 at 12:35 PM
I am obliged to report that when the No 10 spokesman gave this part of the statement there was a brief but heartfelt outbreak of laughter from journalists, one of whom later asked if the PM might thus be interested in a bridge he had to sell.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.
November 10, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Robbie Gibb once suggested that reporters should reflect if they were getting more retweets from one side than the other - a braindead analysis that ignores that fair and impartial reporting of education might get more Tory retweets than say, criminal justice.
Stephen really does have the best take on this. It’s not clear that the BBC Board or indeed the rest of the News team really understood the message of the previous reviews, which were about getting detail right. Instead they wanted to know what was ‘biased’ or not like they were blotting out stains.
The impossible dream some people on the British right are chasing is that you can have a BBC News operation that retreats from detail and expertise, that takes dictation from the government, but this will only create incompetence and failure when it suits you:
November 10, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Robbie Gibb once suggested that reporters should reflect if they were getting more retweets from one side than the other - a braindead analysis that ignores that fair and impartial reporting of education might get more Tory retweets than say, criminal justice.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
HOW HAVE I NOT WATCHED THIS SHOW BEFORE
November 7, 2025 at 2:10 PM
HOW HAVE I NOT WATCHED THIS SHOW BEFORE
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Debs. Nehru. Dhoom Machale. I’m in danger of believing good things might be possible again
November 5, 2025 at 4:54 AM
Debs. Nehru. Dhoom Machale. I’m in danger of believing good things might be possible again