Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
@macromau.bsky.social
Research economist at the Bank of England. Opinions are mine alone, RT and likes are inscrutable!
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
NEW from me:
DOGE is officially the largest one-year cut in the federal workforce since the end of WWII, with 279k jobs lost—though it didn't come close to its supposed goal of reducing the deficit & cut some of the federal government's most effective programs 🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/the-econom...
DOGE is officially the largest one-year cut in the federal workforce since the end of WWII, with 279k jobs lost—though it didn't come close to its supposed goal of reducing the deficit & cut some of the federal government's most effective programs 🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/the-econom...
The Economic Legacy of DOGE
DOGE is the Largest Peacetime Cut to the Federal Workforce in Modern US History, But it Failed its Supposed Budget-Cutting Goals & Broke Important Agencies
www.apricitas.io
January 20, 2026 at 11:07 PM
NEW from me:
DOGE is officially the largest one-year cut in the federal workforce since the end of WWII, with 279k jobs lost—though it didn't come close to its supposed goal of reducing the deficit & cut some of the federal government's most effective programs 🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/the-econom...
DOGE is officially the largest one-year cut in the federal workforce since the end of WWII, with 279k jobs lost—though it didn't come close to its supposed goal of reducing the deficit & cut some of the federal government's most effective programs 🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/the-econom...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
My quote on the current mess:
"A classic boom-bust cycle....the result is a system that oscillates between openness and restriction. Employers, universities and migrants face uncertainty; public services face discontinuous shocks to labour supply; and public trust erodes.”
"A classic boom-bust cycle....the result is a system that oscillates between openness and restriction. Employers, universities and migrants face uncertainty; public services face discontinuous shocks to labour supply; and public trust erodes.”
January 13, 2026 at 10:22 AM
My quote on the current mess:
"A classic boom-bust cycle....the result is a system that oscillates between openness and restriction. Employers, universities and migrants face uncertainty; public services face discontinuous shocks to labour supply; and public trust erodes.”
"A classic boom-bust cycle....the result is a system that oscillates between openness and restriction. Employers, universities and migrants face uncertainty; public services face discontinuous shocks to labour supply; and public trust erodes.”
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
✍️ Please sign and share my latest petition!
In November, the government announced plans to amend the British Nationality Act to make citizenship harder to obtain.
So after migrants meet new ILR requirements, they'll wait longer, pay more, jump through MORE hoops.
🧵 Here's why this is unfair… /1
In November, the government announced plans to amend the British Nationality Act to make citizenship harder to obtain.
So after migrants meet new ILR requirements, they'll wait longer, pay more, jump through MORE hoops.
🧵 Here's why this is unfair… /1
Petition: Do not increase the time migrants with ILR need to wait to apply for citizenship
We ask the Government and Parliament not to amend the British Nationality Act 1981 to increase the qualifying period for migrants with indefinite leave to remain (ILR) to become eligible to apply for ...
petition.parliament.uk
December 31, 2025 at 3:53 PM
✍️ Please sign and share my latest petition!
In November, the government announced plans to amend the British Nationality Act to make citizenship harder to obtain.
So after migrants meet new ILR requirements, they'll wait longer, pay more, jump through MORE hoops.
🧵 Here's why this is unfair… /1
In November, the government announced plans to amend the British Nationality Act to make citizenship harder to obtain.
So after migrants meet new ILR requirements, they'll wait longer, pay more, jump through MORE hoops.
🧵 Here's why this is unfair… /1
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Mexico is a puzzle. Exports to the US are better than ever, but the country is back to the same kind of growth stagnation that defined the 5 years before COVID. The reason is weak private consumption, so the benefits from trade aren't reaching enough people.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/mexicos-gr...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/mexicos-gr...
December 28, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Mexico is a puzzle. Exports to the US are better than ever, but the country is back to the same kind of growth stagnation that defined the 5 years before COVID. The reason is weak private consumption, so the benefits from trade aren't reaching enough people.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/mexicos-gr...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/mexicos-gr...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Whoomp there is is! You knew this was coming…
BESSENT: SUGGESTS THE FED REVISE ITS 2% INFLATION TARGET TO 1.5%–2.5% OR 1%–3% U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Federal Reserve should re-examine its inflation target as inflation declines toward 2%. He proposed shifting from a fixed target to a range, such as 1.5%–2.5%
December 23, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Whoomp there is is! You knew this was coming…
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
The UK will celebrate net emigration and depopulation come 2027.
And by 2028 it will start to realise, with an ageing society and low growth, what a really silly thing it has done.
The right will go "pro-natalist", the centre-left will be completely stuck.
And by 2028 it will start to realise, with an ageing society and low growth, what a really silly thing it has done.
The right will go "pro-natalist", the centre-left will be completely stuck.
December 22, 2025 at 7:28 AM
The UK will celebrate net emigration and depopulation come 2027.
And by 2028 it will start to realise, with an ageing society and low growth, what a really silly thing it has done.
The right will go "pro-natalist", the centre-left will be completely stuck.
And by 2028 it will start to realise, with an ageing society and low growth, what a really silly thing it has done.
The right will go "pro-natalist", the centre-left will be completely stuck.
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Excellent piece by @tomcalver.bsky.social on the collapse in UK immigration, based in part on @jamesbowes01.bsky.social analysis for @ukandeu.bsky.social.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
December 21, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Excellent piece by @tomcalver.bsky.social on the collapse in UK immigration, based in part on @jamesbowes01.bsky.social analysis for @ukandeu.bsky.social.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
The Migration Advisory Committee has published its annual report today
They have supplemented their earlier analysis of the fiscal impact of migrants on skilled work and health/care visas with those on family visas.
Full results below:
www.gov.uk/government/p...
They have supplemented their earlier analysis of the fiscal impact of migrants on skilled work and health/care visas with those on family visas.
Full results below:
www.gov.uk/government/p...
December 17, 2025 at 6:39 PM
The Migration Advisory Committee has published its annual report today
They have supplemented their earlier analysis of the fiscal impact of migrants on skilled work and health/care visas with those on family visas.
Full results below:
www.gov.uk/government/p...
They have supplemented their earlier analysis of the fiscal impact of migrants on skilled work and health/care visas with those on family visas.
Full results below:
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
📢 New Data & Paper 📢
We released the U.S. Monetary Policy Event Study Database, a public, transparent, and regularly updated dataset of high-frequency financial market reactions to all official FOMC communication since 1994.
Data: sffed.us/USMPD
Paper: frbsf.org/research-and...
We released the U.S. Monetary Policy Event Study Database, a public, transparent, and regularly updated dataset of high-frequency financial market reactions to all official FOMC communication since 1994.
Data: sffed.us/USMPD
Paper: frbsf.org/research-and...
December 16, 2025 at 9:07 PM
📢 New Data & Paper 📢
We released the U.S. Monetary Policy Event Study Database, a public, transparent, and regularly updated dataset of high-frequency financial market reactions to all official FOMC communication since 1994.
Data: sffed.us/USMPD
Paper: frbsf.org/research-and...
We released the U.S. Monetary Policy Event Study Database, a public, transparent, and regularly updated dataset of high-frequency financial market reactions to all official FOMC communication since 1994.
Data: sffed.us/USMPD
Paper: frbsf.org/research-and...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
“Making the tragedy of the horizon”
Mark Carney’s fossil fuel pivot bewilders climate experts and business leaders
Canadian prime minister’s legacy as one-time UN envoy and clean power advocate undermined by energy shift
www.ft.com
December 13, 2025 at 5:16 PM
“Making the tragedy of the horizon”
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Migration Advisory Committee report on fiscal impact of main work migration routes.
Key table: they estimate 2022/23 cohort (those arriving in 2022/23) will over lifetimes pay about £47 billion more in taxes than they "cost" in public spending.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/693810...
Key table: they estimate 2022/23 cohort (those arriving in 2022/23) will over lifetimes pay about £47 billion more in taxes than they "cost" in public spending.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/693810...
December 11, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Migration Advisory Committee report on fiscal impact of main work migration routes.
Key table: they estimate 2022/23 cohort (those arriving in 2022/23) will over lifetimes pay about £47 billion more in taxes than they "cost" in public spending.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/693810...
Key table: they estimate 2022/23 cohort (those arriving in 2022/23) will over lifetimes pay about £47 billion more in taxes than they "cost" in public spending.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/693810...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Hi #Econsky! I’ve got a new working paper on central bank lending facilities in crises and their transmission to broader credit supply.
🚨A summary thread🚨
🚨A summary thread🚨
December 9, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Hi #Econsky! I’ve got a new working paper on central bank lending facilities in crises and their transmission to broader credit supply.
🚨A summary thread🚨
🚨A summary thread🚨
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Tighter visa rules will cost UK up to £10.8bn giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
December 9, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Tighter visa rules will cost UK up to £10.8bn giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
New Home Office impact assessment finds that cutting skilled and social care visas will cost the UK up to £10 billion with a central estimate of -£5.4 billion.
It would be good if this got even a fraction of the coverage devoted to the endless debate about boats, flags and Turkish barber shops
It would be good if this got even a fraction of the coverage devoted to the endless debate about boats, flags and Turkish barber shops
December 9, 2025 at 2:36 PM
New Home Office impact assessment finds that cutting skilled and social care visas will cost the UK up to £10 billion with a central estimate of -£5.4 billion.
It would be good if this got even a fraction of the coverage devoted to the endless debate about boats, flags and Turkish barber shops
It would be good if this got even a fraction of the coverage devoted to the endless debate about boats, flags and Turkish barber shops
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
"If governments want to boost growth, making visas for skilled workers simpler and cheaper is an obvious place to start."
www.personneltoday.com/hr/uk-and-us...
www.personneltoday.com/hr/uk-and-us...
UK and US growth hindered by visa policies
A study has revealed that growth is being hindered by a dearth of local talent coupled with expensive visa processes, prohibiting the hiring of overseas skills.
www.personneltoday.com
December 4, 2025 at 4:14 PM
"If governments want to boost growth, making visas for skilled workers simpler and cheaper is an obvious place to start."
www.personneltoday.com/hr/uk-and-us...
www.personneltoday.com/hr/uk-and-us...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
I joined @RitikaGuptaTV on @CNBC yesterday to discuss my views on the U.K. economy, the budget, risks to inflation and rates. www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
Persistent inflation may delay rate cuts, says Bank of England rate-setter
Megan Greene, external member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England discusses her inflationary outlook for the forthcoming months, the impact of the UK budget on monetary policy, and...
www.cnbc.com
December 2, 2025 at 3:13 PM
I joined @RitikaGuptaTV on @CNBC yesterday to discuss my views on the U.K. economy, the budget, risks to inflation and rates. www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
The recent inflationary episode was shaped unexpected demand surges and supply constraints. Staff Working Paper 1155 by J Chan (BoE), S Diz (CB Paraguay) & D Kanngiesser explores the effect of these dynamics by adding realistic frictions into an NK model. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...
Sticky production and monetary policy
Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.
www.bankofengland.co.uk
December 2, 2025 at 2:37 PM
The recent inflationary episode was shaped unexpected demand surges and supply constraints. Staff Working Paper 1155 by J Chan (BoE), S Diz (CB Paraguay) & D Kanngiesser explores the effect of these dynamics by adding realistic frictions into an NK model. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
1/2 Gianluco Benigno: "Unlike in the United States, where higher interest spending does not automatically force fiscal consolidation, the UK’s legally binding fiscal rules channel monetary tightening straight into the deficit.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Interest Rate Politics II: the Fiscal Footprint of UK Monetary Policy
Through its fiscal rules and institutional constraints, UK fiscal policy depends mechanically on monetary policy.
substack.com
December 2, 2025 at 11:56 AM
1/2 Gianluco Benigno: "Unlike in the United States, where higher interest spending does not automatically force fiscal consolidation, the UK’s legally binding fiscal rules channel monetary tightening straight into the deficit.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Core inflation in each of the G-4 has settled well above its pre-COVID equilibrium and in most cases is above the 2% target. That's not about supply shocks, but about demand and a global economy that's running hot. No wonder we have the "debasement trade..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
December 2, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Core inflation in each of the G-4 has settled well above its pre-COVID equilibrium and in most cases is above the 2% target. That's not about supply shocks, but about demand and a global economy that's running hot. No wonder we have the "debasement trade..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
"immigration has to go up for our growth goals, but our policy is to bring it down"
uk politics in a nutshell
uk politics in a nutshell
There is an actual interesting little deceit in the budget, namely ther have the OBR still forecasting based on increasing net immigration back to 300-350k whilst the Home Secretary is promising to bring it down from 200k, which does dissolve about half the headroom, but somehow we're doing vibes.
Think this is exactly right - political journalism that is completely abstracted from policy, which was not the norm before 2017, has become the default. Impossible to have a serious attempt to either shrink what the state does or widen the tax base (have to do at least one) on that basis.
December 1, 2025 at 6:15 PM
"immigration has to go up for our growth goals, but our policy is to bring it down"
uk politics in a nutshell
uk politics in a nutshell
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
There's only one question for Germany: what policies will stop the inexorable rise of the AfD, which is heading for 30% in the polls. This will literally tip Europe if it continues. Germany with AfD in government won't stand up to Russia. And it also won't stick with the Euro. A storm is coming...
November 29, 2025 at 1:17 PM
There's only one question for Germany: what policies will stop the inexorable rise of the AfD, which is heading for 30% in the polls. This will literally tip Europe if it continues. Germany with AfD in government won't stand up to Russia. And it also won't stick with the Euro. A storm is coming...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK net migration falls sharply with drop in arrivals for work and study
Provisional figures for net migration to the UK show levels dropped to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Today's 70% fall in net migration to 205,000 was not one of the six stories in BBC ten o'clock news.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
November 27, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Today's 70% fall in net migration to 205,000 was not one of the six stories in BBC ten o'clock news.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
One big risk to the OBR forecasts has already materialised -migration is falling more quickly than their projections and that will hit growth and tax revenue.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
UK net migration drops sharply to 204,000 in year to June - live updates
Net migration fell by around two-thirds - from 649,000 in the year to June 2024 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 9:55 AM
One big risk to the OBR forecasts has already materialised -migration is falling more quickly than their projections and that will hit growth and tax revenue.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
A less polite summary would be 'they kicked the can again'.
From what you can gather from the OBR leak this budget will go down well with most labour MPs & will probably have a neutral effect re: voters & markets. So short-term survival of Starmer-Reeves maybe helped but long-term situation for Labour not much changed - but no disaster.
November 26, 2025 at 12:30 PM
A less polite summary would be 'they kicked the can again'.