Win Monroe
@winmonroe.bsky.social
Another economist.
Views and bad hot takes are my own, if even that.
Likes & RTs =/= endorsements.
Views and bad hot takes are my own, if even that.
Likes & RTs =/= endorsements.
Reposted by Win Monroe
Liberal Democratic Party on course for large majority in Japan election ft.trib.al/XSUIAT9
Liberal Democratic Party on course for large majority in Japan election
Exit polls suggest Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party and its coalition partner could win 366 seats
ft.trib.al
February 8, 2026 at 11:52 AM
Liberal Democratic Party on course for large majority in Japan election ft.trib.al/XSUIAT9
Reposted by Win Monroe
the magic of the Muppets is that there are two fourth walls. they constantly break the one that reminds the audience they are performers. they NEVER break the one that reminds the audience they are puppets. this dynamic is the key to their entire comedy style
MY KIDS: so why are there muppets in the AUDIENCE
ME: THE CONCEIT!! IS THAT THEY'RE PUTTING ON A VARIETY SHOW!!! IN A WORLD WHERE MUPPET AND HUMAN COEXIST!!! YOU ARE WATCHING A DOCUMENTARY!! FILMED!! IN REAL TIME!!!
ME: THE CONCEIT!! IS THAT THEY'RE PUTTING ON A VARIETY SHOW!!! IN A WORLD WHERE MUPPET AND HUMAN COEXIST!!! YOU ARE WATCHING A DOCUMENTARY!! FILMED!! IN REAL TIME!!!
February 8, 2026 at 6:22 AM
the magic of the Muppets is that there are two fourth walls. they constantly break the one that reminds the audience they are performers. they NEVER break the one that reminds the audience they are puppets. this dynamic is the key to their entire comedy style
Reposted by Win Monroe
Indeed. Surprised at the disagreement to this thread - have people forgotten that the markets basically calmed down after Liz Truss because Jeremy Hunt made some (quite small) tweaks to the energy price subsidy and he is reassuringly urbane?
Very bumpy in short term given City assumption is new leader would borrow borrow borrow, so they reallllllllly need to get tax message out quick
Hhhmmm.
Can’t see any of the likely successors making *major* changes to borrowing. You might get more taxes & more spending.
And don’t rule out a more pro-growth attitude to immigration.
www.ft.com/content/c855... Starmer camp warns leadership challenge risks economic chaos
Can’t see any of the likely successors making *major* changes to borrowing. You might get more taxes & more spending.
And don’t rule out a more pro-growth attitude to immigration.
www.ft.com/content/c855... Starmer camp warns leadership challenge risks economic chaos
February 7, 2026 at 11:19 AM
Indeed. Surprised at the disagreement to this thread - have people forgotten that the markets basically calmed down after Liz Truss because Jeremy Hunt made some (quite small) tweaks to the energy price subsidy and he is reassuringly urbane?
Reposted by Win Monroe
Reposted by Win Monroe
It’s obviously a story that has been well understood by markets for a long time. But is the macroeconomic significance of this fully understood? Not sure.
The *upward revision* to capex over the last 12m is more than 1% of GDP.
The *upward revision* to capex over the last 12m is more than 1% of GDP.
February 5, 2026 at 9:31 PM
It’s obviously a story that has been well understood by markets for a long time. But is the macroeconomic significance of this fully understood? Not sure.
The *upward revision* to capex over the last 12m is more than 1% of GDP.
The *upward revision* to capex over the last 12m is more than 1% of GDP.
Reposted by Win Monroe
The Economist parses the policy shifts of Warsh, who Trump would like to be next Fed chair.
This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
February 5, 2026 at 9:31 PM
The Economist parses the policy shifts of Warsh, who Trump would like to be next Fed chair.
Negative. I'm a meat popsicle.
February 4, 2026 at 10:25 PM
Negative. I'm a meat popsicle.
Reposted by Win Monroe
I have (more) news! 👇
Watch out for the FT's exciting new food columnist coming soon to #FTEdit! Register now for free: on.ft.com/4p025v1.
Welcome @nigella.bsky.social 👋
Welcome @nigella.bsky.social 👋
We're delighted to announce that Nigella Lawson is joining FT Weekend's food & drink pages as a columnist.
Her first monthly column will appear in FT Weekend Magazine on April 4. Until then, you can read what she has already written for the FT here ft.trib.al/Vg2IlEI
Her first monthly column will appear in FT Weekend Magazine on April 4. Until then, you can read what she has already written for the FT here ft.trib.al/Vg2IlEI
February 4, 2026 at 5:38 PM
I have (more) news! 👇
Reposted by Win Monroe
If these were real crypto investors they would have commissioned the statue out of bitcoin, not gold.
“I had him very lifelike,” Mr. Cottrill said in an interview last month. “The crypto guys said I had to get rid of some of the turkey neck. I had to thin him down.” www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/t...
‘Don Colossus,’ a Golden Statue of President Trump, Waits for Its Home
www.nytimes.com
February 3, 2026 at 9:33 PM
If these were real crypto investors they would have commissioned the statue out of bitcoin, not gold.
Reposted by Win Monroe
Neil Dutta and Skanda being so anti-Warsh (my perspective as well) while people like Jason Furman and El-Erian praised him say a lot about how different types of people judge qualifications and character when it comes to Fed governors.
January 31, 2026 at 12:25 PM
Neil Dutta and Skanda being so anti-Warsh (my perspective as well) while people like Jason Furman and El-Erian praised him say a lot about how different types of people judge qualifications and character when it comes to Fed governors.
Reposted by Win Monroe
Reposted by Win Monroe
Good grief. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
January 24, 2026 at 1:52 PM
Good grief. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Reposted by Win Monroe
Google won’t stop replacing our news headlines with terrible AI
Google won’t stop replacing our news headlines with terrible AI
“This feature performs well for user satisfaction,” claims Google.
buff.ly
January 23, 2026 at 12:10 PM
Google won’t stop replacing our news headlines with terrible AI
Cool chart!
Megan shows us the importance of US and other global factors in driving the rise in UK government borrowing costs. Is clear that UK specific risk factors increased around the time of the LDI crisis in 2022.
January 23, 2026 at 10:33 AM
Cool chart!
Reposted by Win Monroe
Japan's bond market looking a tiny bit more like everyone else's, which might create problems for everyone else, as well as for the government...
By @urbandirt.bsky.social @davidkeo.bsky.social + me
www.ft.com/content/e2ae...
By @urbandirt.bsky.social @davidkeo.bsky.social + me
www.ft.com/content/e2ae...
January 21, 2026 at 11:16 AM
Japan's bond market looking a tiny bit more like everyone else's, which might create problems for everyone else, as well as for the government...
By @urbandirt.bsky.social @davidkeo.bsky.social + me
www.ft.com/content/e2ae...
By @urbandirt.bsky.social @davidkeo.bsky.social + me
www.ft.com/content/e2ae...
Call for Papers: 2026 Nordic Household Finance Summit (Deadline: February 22, 2026) createsend.com/t/j-74A5F0EE...
January 23, 2026 at 9:58 AM
Call for Papers: 2026 Nordic Household Finance Summit (Deadline: February 22, 2026) createsend.com/t/j-74A5F0EE...
Further waller probably means lower long rates bc (1) unlikely to spook markets in any way and (2) will keep inflation down bc not uber dove or in political debt. Bessent, vocal about his focus on long rates rather than short rates, has surely made this pitch to trump
January 22, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Further waller probably means lower long rates bc (1) unlikely to spook markets in any way and (2) will keep inflation down bc not uber dove or in political debt. Bessent, vocal about his focus on long rates rather than short rates, has surely made this pitch to trump
Reposted by Win Monroe
NY Fed finds households ramping up spending plans: "The median reported year-over-year increase in monthly nominal household spending increased to 4.9 percent in December from 4.1 percent in August and 4.6 percent in December 2024."
January 20, 2026 at 4:17 PM
NY Fed finds households ramping up spending plans: "The median reported year-over-year increase in monthly nominal household spending increased to 4.9 percent in December from 4.1 percent in August and 4.6 percent in December 2024."
Good thread here on financial dimensions of US-EU tensions
January 19, 2026 at 1:22 PM
Good thread here on financial dimensions of US-EU tensions
Reposted by Win Monroe
"Capital flowed to high-inflation countries during recent surge, worsening the output-inflation tradeoff. Reversing flows would have reduced volatility & tightening needs."
New paper by Coulibaly & Bengui:
www.restud.com/destabilizin...
#REStud
#EconSky
New paper by Coulibaly & Bengui:
www.restud.com/destabilizin...
#REStud
#EconSky
January 19, 2026 at 10:03 AM
"Capital flowed to high-inflation countries during recent surge, worsening the output-inflation tradeoff. Reversing flows would have reduced volatility & tightening needs."
New paper by Coulibaly & Bengui:
www.restud.com/destabilizin...
#REStud
#EconSky
New paper by Coulibaly & Bengui:
www.restud.com/destabilizin...
#REStud
#EconSky
A good read on government debt and monetary policy: www.ft.com/content/25d3...
Whose fault is fiscal dominance?
Monetisation and its discontents
www.ft.com
January 17, 2026 at 1:09 PM
A good read on government debt and monetary policy: www.ft.com/content/25d3...
Reposted by Win Monroe
Submission deadline for the Philadelphia Fed's Mortgage Market Research Conference is January 20th. Details here: bit.ly/4mT9Ocz
Summary - Mortgage Market Research Conference: Call for Papers
bit.ly
January 16, 2026 at 9:58 PM
Submission deadline for the Philadelphia Fed's Mortgage Market Research Conference is January 20th. Details here: bit.ly/4mT9Ocz
Trump says he wants Fed chair contender Hassett to stay in White House job - www.ft.com/content/ef71... via @FT
Trump says he wants Fed chair contender Hassett to stay in White House job
US president says moving National Economic Council director to lead the central bank would be a ‘serious concern for me’
www.ft.com
January 16, 2026 at 5:24 PM
Trump says he wants Fed chair contender Hassett to stay in White House job - www.ft.com/content/ef71... via @FT