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Reposted by Marta Miori

Maria Sobolewska @profsob.bsky.social · 7d

An important new paper from my talented, but BlueSky-less PHD Jose Lopes

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe

In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 8d

This was such a good read @benansell.bsky.social !! Delivered on the graphs *and* the jokes

Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 10d

‼️⬇️ The most important part:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10d

Absolute must-read from @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social. It's hard to imagine how Labour could be getting it more wrong - not least by talking up the replacement of the Conservatives by Reform, which will only accelerate the cannibalisation of the former's vote by the latter!

Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 10d

Come for the argument, stay for the nice data viz! 🤓

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 10d

Thanks Stuart! 🙏

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 10d

New 📊 with @profjanegreen.bsky.social on why Labour's electoral challenges are being misunderstood ⚠️

1) We show that Labour are losing few voters to Reform *even in their most pro-Leave seats*, and explain why

2) Instead, Reform risk overtaking Labour in ++ seats by taking '24 Cons and non-voters

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10d

NEW!
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...

Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.

Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 11d

It's probably a feature of the Brexit realignment? And shows how "permanent" it's been. If the 2017 Lab to 2019 Cons are the Leave supporters who switched away from Labour, they now fit nicely into the right-wing bloc in a seemingly durable way

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 16d

Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.

Peston @itvpeston.bsky.social · 16d

PESTON LIVE - 22/09/2025 👇

Join ITV’s Flagship Politics show

Tonight Robert Peston and Pippa Crerar will be joined by:

💼 James Murray MP
🔶 @eddavey.libdems.org.uk
🌏 Aaron David Miller
🌹 @bellribeiroaddy.bsky.social
➡️ Maria Caulfield

#Peston

youtube.com/live/P-ku4ly...

Recognition of Palestine | UK’s economic outlook | Reform’s latest immigration policy | ITV Peston

YouTube video by Peston

youtube.com

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 26d

You can read our paper here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...

academic.oup.com

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 26d

BES Research Fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has spoken with The Economist about our Parliamentary Affairs paper on how British voters are volatile, but their choices are now structured by party blocs after the Brexit realignment.

Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...

The new battle for Britain

Once elections were fought between left and right. Now the main fight is within these camps

www.economist.com

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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · Jul 14

📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨

"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"

Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

🧵👇

Article abstract, which says:

The educational cleavage is restructuring electoral competition in many democracies, yet there has been insufficient attention on how variation in educational content affects this. In order to address this, this article combines English administrative school records with a unique representative panel of adolescents to estimate the within-individual effect of studying different subjects at school on political party preference. This analysis finds that studying arts and humanities subjects leads to greater support for socially liberal parties, whilst studying business and economics increases support for economically right-wing parties. Students who study technical subjects become more likely to support socially conservative and economically right-wing parties. These relationships between particular subjects and party support also persist into adulthood. As such, this article provides new evidence on the importance of subjects taken in secondary school for political socialisation, during the impressionable years of adolescence.

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Kenn Rushworth @kennrushworth.bsky.social · Jul 3

Mine and @profsob.bsky.social paper
Comparing registration systems using the International Difficulty of Registration Index (IDORI). How difficult is electoral registration in the UK?
has been published. Please read it here,
url: academic.oup.com/pa/article/d...

Comparing registration systems using the International Difficulty of Registration Index (IDORI). How difficult is electoral registration in the UK?

Abstract. Electoral registration in the UK is often critiqued for making it hard for voters to participate in elections. However, without a tool for a syst

academic.oup.com

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · Jun 1

Largely driven by change in party image, i.e. voters not seeing Labour as a working class party anymore... (also from Evans & Tilley 2012:

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · Jun 1

Absolutely not garbage. Regardless of policies & what the party delivered, the composition of the Labour Party became significantly more middle class under Blair

Graph below is from Evans and Tilley doi.org/10.1017/s002... and shows Labour becoming less wc and more mc in early 2000s

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · May 29

Nothing 30 years of EPOPs can't fix :)

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · May 27

Opponents of the radical right often use - I'd argue, with some success - the argument that their opponents are a threat to democracy. But this argument is largely absent in Britain. Farage is a racist, he is incompetent, he's pro-Russia, but he's almost never portrayed as anti-democratic. (1)

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 22

For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems

Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · May 22

Our postdoc @eoghanly.bsky.social has co-developed
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮

You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.

More info ⬇️

scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · May 21

I agree that the Reform threat can coalesce progressive votes in seats where this happened against the Tories in 2024. But I'd be weary about taking this for granted - and to underestimate how big of an impact even a small degree of tactical unwinding can have given how Lab's 2024 vote is spread out

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · May 21

The "a) Labour can lose votes in safe seats, and b) people will vote tactically in marginals" argument largely applies to a pre-2024 distribution of Labour votes. Both have, to a large extent, already happened - especially b). The party's majority now rests on that tactical coalition *holding up*

John Rentoul @rentouljohn.bsky.social · May 21

Excellent myth-busting by Luke Akehurst for Labour List labourlist.org/2025/05/labo...

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Chris Butler @chrisbutlerpol.bsky.social · May 19

Did you know about the hidden way that parties in the UK receive political donations? @politicalquarterly.bsky.social have just published @markpackuk.bsky.social & mine's research into donations made directly to candidates at election time. Details of these donors are not publicly published....

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · May 16

I've been surprised at how good voters can be at feeling what the tactical context in their seat is. For instance, individual perceptions of local contexts in 2024 was often closer to the 2024 outcome than 2019 results. But definitely getting messier (for voters, and for us...)

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · May 16

I would definitely expect some tactical voting (especially if you look at the examples of other places like France)! I guess it comes back to the question of how unliked Labour has to get for these voters to just stay at home/ go elsewhere despite the tactical context

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · May 16

The caveat here though is that Labour's likely to loose these seats to the right *anyways*, because many are three-way with the right vote completely split, so as soon as there's more Con > Rfm switching (or vice versa, if tactical!) they're at v. high risk of losing even if the left coalition holds

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · May 16

Not sure, Reform are in contention in 207 Labour seats (defined as either 2nd, or very close 3rd). Which is huge! And these are mostly the seats Labour took from the Conservatives, thanks to fragmentation on the right & tactical voting on the left, and so low shares for other left parties

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