David Smith
@preoccupations.bsky.social
Reposted by David Smith
V good thread
This OBR/Treasury row on who said what, when... is very muddy and complicated.
A few points:
• idea that the OBR said on Oct 31 Reeves was already meeting her target by £4b isn't really the full picture - fcast excluded the welfare u-turns since March (some media have pointed that out, others not)
A few points:
• idea that the OBR said on Oct 31 Reeves was already meeting her target by £4b isn't really the full picture - fcast excluded the welfare u-turns since March (some media have pointed that out, others not)
November 30, 2025 at 9:03 AM
V good thread
Reposted by David Smith
I'm near speechless at this framing of overall immigration falling by, like, 60%
Asylum seekers now make up nearly half of net migration to the UK and the number housed in hotels has increased despite Sir Keir Starmer’s pledge to end their use ⬇️
Asylum seekers account for almost half of net migration
New statistics showed a fall in net migration as British citizens and non-EU migrants left the UK, but the number of asylum seekers in hotels has grown
www.thetimes.com
November 28, 2025 at 8:18 AM
I'm near speechless at this framing of overall immigration falling by, like, 60%
Reposted by David Smith
The most interesting OBR paper yesterday was the one that didn't leak - the justification for their productivity downgrade. There's a very important assumption in it that could make or break the government.
November 27, 2025 at 8:13 AM
The most interesting OBR paper yesterday was the one that didn't leak - the justification for their productivity downgrade. There's a very important assumption in it that could make or break the government.
Reposted by David Smith
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Reposted by David Smith
Just a jaw-dropping paragraph in Trevor Phillips's column for The Times.
This is a policy that, by his own account, has left parents of a particular race too frightened to walk their children to school.
And that's the example he chooses of the "vigour" we "need".
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
This is a policy that, by his own account, has left parents of a particular race too frightened to walk their children to school.
And that's the example he chooses of the "vigour" we "need".
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
November 24, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Just a jaw-dropping paragraph in Trevor Phillips's column for The Times.
This is a policy that, by his own account, has left parents of a particular race too frightened to walk their children to school.
And that's the example he chooses of the "vigour" we "need".
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
This is a policy that, by his own account, has left parents of a particular race too frightened to walk their children to school.
And that's the example he chooses of the "vigour" we "need".
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Reposted by David Smith
Although the scale of this is still to be assessed, this is the inevitable outcome of the monetization of the algorithm. Rage-bait becomes a personal revenue model. Nothing about this should be a surprise.
NEWS: I spent the past 24 hours going through major MAGA accounts on Twitter, and a bombshell development has become clear: most of the right-wing ecosphere is being fed propaganda from foreign actors.
This impacts elections. This impacts discourse. This is major. Subscribe to support my work:
This impacts elections. This impacts discourse. This is major. Subscribe to support my work:
NEWS: Major MAGA Accounts on Twitter Exposed as Foreign Actors
A stunning development over the past 24 hours.
open.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Although the scale of this is still to be assessed, this is the inevitable outcome of the monetization of the algorithm. Rage-bait becomes a personal revenue model. Nothing about this should be a surprise.
Reposted by David Smith
will admit i don't fully understand this but POETRY OUTFOXES AI is the best case for preserving English degrees i have ever heard. 'all the teenage girls who were really into Sylvia Plath at one point vs tech bros' is the battle for civilisation we deserve
Looks like LLMs are *very* vulnerable to attack via poetic allusion: "curated poetic prompts yielded high attack-success rates (ASR), with some providers exceeding 90% ..."
https://arxiv.org/html/2511.15304v1
https://arxiv.org/html/2511.15304v1
November 21, 2025 at 1:05 PM
will admit i don't fully understand this but POETRY OUTFOXES AI is the best case for preserving English degrees i have ever heard. 'all the teenage girls who were really into Sylvia Plath at one point vs tech bros' is the battle for civilisation we deserve
Reposted by David Smith
Yes and - this could be really quite relevant to the current situation - there was a lot of "ah well fun and games, easy come easy go" for the first 12 months, as the dot com bust segued into the much more damaging telecom bust, which had much more debt financed capex.
November 18, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Yes and - this could be really quite relevant to the current situation - there was a lot of "ah well fun and games, easy come easy go" for the first 12 months, as the dot com bust segued into the much more damaging telecom bust, which had much more debt financed capex.
Reposted by David Smith
A question, when did people realise that the dot com bubble had actually peaked?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
November 18, 2025 at 10:58 AM
A question, when did people realise that the dot com bubble had actually peaked?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
Reposted by David Smith
Strikes me that if the rightwing PP win the next election in Spain, governing as they'll have to, in coalition with the Trumpian Vox, webpages like this one from RTVE, Spain's public broadcaster, might well disappear in days...
November 15, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Strikes me that if the rightwing PP win the next election in Spain, governing as they'll have to, in coalition with the Trumpian Vox, webpages like this one from RTVE, Spain's public broadcaster, might well disappear in days...
Reposted by David Smith
New map produced by RTVE, Spanish national TV, of the 6000 mass graves in Spain. In the last 25 years some 17,000 bodies of men, women and children have been exhumed out of the ~120,000 dumped in mass unmarked graves by the Franco regime.
www.rtve.es/noticias/fos...
www.rtve.es/noticias/fos...
November 15, 2025 at 11:40 AM
New map produced by RTVE, Spanish national TV, of the 6000 mass graves in Spain. In the last 25 years some 17,000 bodies of men, women and children have been exhumed out of the ~120,000 dumped in mass unmarked graves by the Franco regime.
www.rtve.es/noticias/fos...
www.rtve.es/noticias/fos...
Reposted by David Smith
also you know refugees are allowed to have unremarkable lives - they don't need to prove that giving them refuge was 'worthwhile' their need is justification enough
November 15, 2025 at 10:38 AM
also you know refugees are allowed to have unremarkable lives - they don't need to prove that giving them refuge was 'worthwhile' their need is justification enough
Reposted by David Smith
NEW - we've data showing huge numbers of people reducing their income to avoid high marginal income tax rates. Not just at the £100k point (as previously reported). But at the £50k point:
November 14, 2025 at 12:47 PM
NEW - we've data showing huge numbers of people reducing their income to avoid high marginal income tax rates. Not just at the £100k point (as previously reported). But at the £50k point:
Reposted by David Smith
Unless someone in the Treasury reassures the markets pretty soon, there’s every chance the UK will need to raise *more* tax for less in return. Total clusterfuck in the making, this.
Having a budget fall apart more than a week before it’s actually be delivered might be a new record.
Having a budget fall apart more than a week before it’s actually be delivered might be a new record.
November 14, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Unless someone in the Treasury reassures the markets pretty soon, there’s every chance the UK will need to raise *more* tax for less in return. Total clusterfuck in the making, this.
Having a budget fall apart more than a week before it’s actually be delivered might be a new record.
Having a budget fall apart more than a week before it’s actually be delivered might be a new record.
Reposted by David Smith
Aaaaaand gilt market hates it
November 14, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Aaaaaand gilt market hates it
Reposted by David Smith
I've noticed the extent to which "do you need a VPN for that?" has cropped up in general conversations about the Web and has become a go-to nudge nudge wink wink on podcasts. But also, there is a whole world in which this could have been easily anticipated by Ofcom and DSIT
The British government admits it is now monitoring VPNs use by UK residents. Regulator Ofcom has contracted with an AI-powered surveillance service to detect the number of citizens using VPNs to evade the Online Safety Act.
The UK tech minister has said a VPN ban is on the table.
The UK tech minister has said a VPN ban is on the table.
Exclusive: Ofcom is monitoring VPNs following Online Safety Act. Here's how
Ignoring VPNs risks creating ineffective laws, but tracking them threatens people's privacy
www.techradar.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:47 AM
I've noticed the extent to which "do you need a VPN for that?" has cropped up in general conversations about the Web and has become a go-to nudge nudge wink wink on podcasts. But also, there is a whole world in which this could have been easily anticipated by Ofcom and DSIT
Reposted by David Smith
"The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal, sources familiar with the matter told CNN." www.cnn.com/2025/11/11/p...
Exclusive: UK suspends some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns in major break | CNN Politics
The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes ...
www.cnn.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:21 PM
"The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal, sources familiar with the matter told CNN." www.cnn.com/2025/11/11/p...