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Tom Stephens @tcstephens.bsky.social · Jul 31

We find this would be better at supporting working families to increase hrs, more progressive, & simpler - combining current complex mess of free hrs, Tax Free CC and UC into single offer. And - if parents increased working hrs/earnings - it'd have virtuous fiscal benefits vs. current system. [5/5]

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Tom Stephens @tcstephens.bsky.social · Jul 31

We've looked at the effects of an alternative offer which combines universal and contributory elements:
- A core free 15hrs for all children;
- For working familes, a % cap on childcare spend above that.

To do this, we've built a detailed & dynamic childcare model using a large-scale survey. [4/]

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Tom Stephens @tcstephens.bsky.social · Jul 31

Even for existing working families, the fully expanded free hours aren't enough to support full-time childcare.

It'll remain prohibitively expensive for low-to-middle income families - costing them 2.5-3.5 times more than a family on 90th earnings percentile (& way more for multi-child fams) [/3].

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Tom Stephens @tcstephens.bsky.social · Jul 31

To realise economic benefits from childcare, you really need to support poorest families to access it - where social & labour market gains by far the highest.

Yet current system denies support to those very same families: the richest 8x more likely to benefit from expanded expanded free hours. [2/]

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Tom Stephens @tcstephens.bsky.social · Jul 31

A pretty hefty piece of @neweconomics.bsky.social analysis out today by me & @pollardtom.bsky.social, in collaboration with @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on the problems with free hours-based childcare system Labour inherited - & case for a more progressive alternative 👇[1/]

neweconomics.org/2025/07/the-...

The Universal Family Childcare Promise

Guaranteeing support for parents and children

neweconomics.org

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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · Jul 18

NEW:

There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment.

I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged:

Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.

www.ft.com/content/a9ea...

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Tom Stephens @tcstephens.bsky.social · Jul 18

Refreshing piece here on complexity of graduate job market, going beyond just blaming 'AI'.

Quite like this (👇) on health/care sector - you see a similar picture in UK occupational growth projections. Unsurprising if you think about it given ageing pop, but lost amidst tech-focussed policy debate!

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Tom Pollard @pollardtom.bsky.social · Jun 30

The updated poverty impact assessment for the disability benefits cuts once again offsets the impact of not proceeding with the previous government's proposed changes to the WCA

The impact of actual changes happening in the real world is likely to be closer to 250k people pushed into poverty

Table from government impact assessment suggesting 150,000 people will be pushed into poverty by the amended proposed cuts & changes to disability and health benefits

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Tom Stephens @tcstephens.bsky.social · Jun 19

See also my talk at #LSEFestival with LSE's Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, where I delve into more of the trends in job quality and the state of local labour markets:

www.lse.ac.uk/Events/LSE-F...

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A society free from poverty: how do we get there and what would it look like?

1pm Mon 16 Jun | Abby Jitendra, Abigail McKnight, Thomas C. Stephens | Free event at the LSE Festival: Visions for the Future | Ticket required

www.lse.ac.uk

Tom Stephens @tcstephens.bsky.social · Jun 19

We've seen alarming trends in in-work poverty in the UK - despite rises in the Living Wage.

I've written a piece for @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social looking at the role 'good work' can play in tackling this, based on @neweconomics.bsky.social analysis:

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

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The role of “good jobs” in tackling in-work poverty - British Politics and Policy at LSE

Labour is right to focus on "good jobs" but, Thomas Stephens warns, this Government ambition needs to be coupled with its Industrial Strategy and deeper reforms to the welfare system.

blogs.lse.ac.uk

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Maya Sen @mayasen.bsky.social · Apr 18

Ok so yeah, this has quickly become the #1 misunderstanding about the canceled grants

the grants are not “subsidies” or “entitlements” to Harvard or Princeton or whatever

they aren’t going into universities’ endowments

they are competitive contracts won by these universities to do research

Maya Sen @mayasen.bsky.social · Apr 15

There is a PR narrative quickly emerging about “entitlement” of elite universities, as if this $ is some sort of subsidy

Harvard & others must counter this quickly

The $ doesn’t flow into Harvard’s coffers - this is grant money, most of which goes to research the govt has agreed has social value

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Tom Pollard @pollardtom.bsky.social · Mar 14

This, from a DWP press release yesterday (gov.uk/government/n...), is outrageous

In two short paragraphs it peddles multiple falsehoods about the current system that will be used to justify upcoming cuts & changes

Here's what MPs & journalists should be challenging... 🧵

Text from a DWP press release: In the current dysfunctional system, a person is placed in binary categories of either “fit for work” or “not fit for work” through the Work Capability Assessment (WCA) – an assessment the government has said it will either reform or replace, so it no longer drives people who want to work to a life on benefits.

Through this process, those not fit for work are told they have Limited Capability for Work Related Activity (LCWRA) – meaning they won’t receive employment support or further engagement from the system at any point following their assessment – effectively abandoning and locking them out of work indefinitely.

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Dr Calum Carson @drcalumcarson.bsky.social · Mar 13

Pleased to see the launch of the first output from our @irhws.bsky.social project today, exploring disabled workers' experiences of remote & hybrid working and putting forward a number of policy recommendations for the government. Thread below on some of our key findings 👇

Beyond the Office? How remote and hybrid working can help close the disability employment gap - Lancaster University

New interim report from Lancaster University, the Work Foundation, Manchester Metropolitan University and Universal Inclusion - funded by the Nuffield Foundation - reveals that five years on from the ...

www.lancaster.ac.uk

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Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Mar 12

Interesting piece.

There's a related but different point which sounds techy but matters. Under UC those without kids & not on UC-health (though many will still have a health condition) don't receive a 'work allowance'. Which makes p/t work much less attractive than it should be....

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · Mar 12

Government wants more people to return to work, but at the same time, is consciously eliminating the jobs that offer the best paths back into work:

Government’s employment reforms clash with its welfare plans

Jobs market policies could threaten the part-time vacancies that ease people back into work

www.ft.com

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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · Mar 6

Civil servant source says DOGE has made agencies much less efficient: "Work has ground down to a stunning degree and management is spending a significant amount of time responding & preparing to respond to the chaos incited by the never ending barrage of EOs & accompanying memos"
Many make no sense🧵

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Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · Mar 6

Why do we see so few working class and ethnic minority young people in professional jobs?

Important new @nuffieldfoundation.org funded research using large-scale employer data sheds new light on the processes through which these inequalities arise.

Lindsey Macmillan @lindseymacmillan.bsky.social · Mar 6

📢 New report out today! 📢

➡️ Access the report here: repec-cepeo.ucl.ac.uk/cepeow/cepeo...

📊 What did we find?

🔸 Most of the socio-economic background (SEB) and ethnic inequalities in entry to professional occupations are driven by employer-side decisions made during the recruitment process

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Tom Clark @tom-clark.bsky.social · Feb 17

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The rocketing Council Tax burden at the bottom of the income distribution quietly recreating the worst problems of the Poll Tax www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/risi...

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Jess McCabe @jessmccabe.bsky.social · Feb 13

I’m not keen on the framing of this story, which veers at least close to blaming Rayner for not reporting the messages about herself in 2022. Let’s not pretend that for women reporting sexist abuse about yourself is some kind of risk free exercise
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Angela Rayner reportedly told about offensive WhatsApp joke in 2022

Deputy prime minister reportedly told separately by two councillors about lewd messages about her on group

www.theguardian.com

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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · Feb 8

Here we see a slightly different UK pattern: young men appear more liberal than they used to be, but women becoming more so [this is 'two-speed liberalisation' in the UK vs 'polarisation' in the US/South Korea]. But nb the indicator here is patterns of party support so unpicking this tricky

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · Jan 26

This is why you don't design curricula around "jobs of the future".

We can't predict the future but we do know what general skills and knowledge will be valuable whatever job you do.

James Bloodworth @jamesbloodworth.bsky.social · Jan 26

‘Learn to code’

Should’ve done a proper degree like sociology or political science

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Cassia Rowland @cassiarowland.bsky.social · Jan 9

Great article from @lizziedearden.bsky.social on the Single Justice Procedure, which now accounts for more than half of all criminal cases. Vast majority have no representation for the defendant and they can be decided in under a minute - w/ lifelong consequences. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01...

‘I was charged for fare dodging when I was 7,000 miles away. Britain’s fast-track justice is flawed’

A Telegraph investigation has uncovered numerous wrongful prosecutions under the Single Justice Procedure, used to deal with minor offences

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire.bsky.social · Jan 4

Some people in recent days have alleged a ‘cover-up’ over the grooming & rape of hundreds of young girls in predominantly northern UK towns, leading to calls for a ‘national’ public inquiry into child sexual exploitation

FWIW here’s a non-exhaustive list of inquiries into #CSE in last 12 yrs…

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Martin Lodge @martinlodge.bsky.social · Jan 3

Christopher Hood has died today. Public administration has lost one of its absolute best. RIP

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Chris Terry-Enescu @cjterry.bsky.social · Dec 10

Big shout out to the 36% of Lib Dem voters who don't have a favourable view of liberalism.

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · Dec 10

How does favourability of ideologies vary between parties?

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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Reposted by Tom Stephens

Daniel Keywan Hollister @dkh.bsky.social · Dec 8

Storytime.

In 2005, my mom died from cancer, but the real cause was the actions taken by an insurance company 12 years earlier. What happened to her was evil, hard to identify or fight, and hidden from the public by legal mechanisms. Because of that, I have no idea how often it has happened.

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