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Jessica C. Huss @j2huss.bsky.social · 12h

One day in the lab, we accidentally discovered that the spines of a cactus 🌵 straighten when exposed to fog. I was intrigued and so were my collaborators. How does this work and what can be gained from it? Here are some of the answers in our new preprint:
doi.org/10.1101/2025...

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Michael Wara @michaelwara.bsky.social · 10h

A hill I will die on is that the Palisades Fire was not “caused” by the person who lit the Lachman Fire. It was caused by systematic failure to prepare landscapes and communities to receive fires that will inevitably occur in a fire prone region in which 25 million people live.

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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 10h

A trio of cyclonic eddies in the Gulf of Mexico are creating record-high Ocean Heat Content values for the date. Absolutely something of importance during this part of hurricane season.
@miamirosenstiel.bsky.social

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Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 13h

Highly unusual situation approaching western Colorado with the moisture from Hurricane Priscilla. Grand Junction has never had precipitable water over an inch (25mm) so late in the year, but looks like it will be near that level on both Fri & Sat. Six standard deviations above average! #cowx 1/2

Global Ensemble Forecast System mean precipitable water and 700-mb winds valid on Saturday morning, 11 October 2025. A big plume of moisture will be transported into the southwest US ahead of decaying Hurricane Priscilla. From https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/ens.php

Standardized anomaly of precipitable water from the ECWMF ensemble mean on Saturday morning, 11 October 2025. It shows a broad swath of greater than +3 standard deviations in the western US. From https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/ecmwf.php

Ensemble forecast plume showing precipitable water at Grand Junction, Colorado in the members of the ECWMF ensemble. Values are predicted to be around 25-30 mm with high confidence on Friday 10 October through Saturday 11 October, far above the 90th percentile for the date. From https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/ecmwf.php

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Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 14h

Jerry's a top 1% in terms of its fast movement through the deep tropics. Its speed is knocking its circulation off kilter but it should organize as it slows and turns near the islands. Also, as Jerry would say, what's the deal with the weekend nor'easter?

Jerry Forms but Slow to Strengthen, Tropical Storm Watches Issued for the Northern Leeward Islands

Jerry forecast to pass near the northern Leeward Islands as a hurricane tomorrow and Friday but turn well east of the U.S.

michaelrlowry.substack.com

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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 14h

Drought is climate change's biggest threat: If this winter is as dry as last winter, and no major reductions in use occur, Lake Powell by 2027 would have no storage left and “would have to be operated as a ‘run of river' facility” in which only the inflow from the river could be released downstream.

‘No One Comes Out of This Unscathed’: Experts Warn That Colorado River Use Needs Cutting Immediately - Inside Climate News

A new report finds that Lakes Mead and Powell, the nation’s largest reservoirs, could store just 9 percent of their combined capacity by the end of next summer.

insideclimatenews.org

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a.s. @wxandbiscuits.bsky.social · 1d

CPC keeps the CAG TC risk going into late October.

CPC tropical cyclone potential next week (top) and Oct 22-28 (bottom). At least a 40% chance for development both weeks with the Central American after. Another Cabo Verde African wave storm could form behind Jerry.

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 1d

Its verification time. As of 15z Today Oct 7th, Tropical Storm #Jerry has formed with 40 kt winds.

Pretty clear at this point the #ECMWF has struggled with this genesis case, possibly due to the same amped up gravity wave issues that have plagued the model in the tropics for some time.

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National Hurricane Center Bot @nhcbot.bsky.social · 1d

Tropical Storm #Jerry Advisory 1: Tropical Storm Jerry Forms Over the Tropical Central Atlantic. The Tenth Named Storm of the Season. http://hurricanes.gov https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1975570820433846750

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GovExec @govexec.bsky.social · 1d

OMB quietly removed language from its #shutdown guidance that referenced the 2019 law guaranteeing retroactive pay to furloughed federal employees. buff.ly/P0AsxeZ

OMB deletes reference to law guaranteeing backpay to furloughed feds from shutdown guidance

An Office of Management and Budget FAQ document now states that only excepted employees forced to work without pay are guaranteed backpay at the conclusion of a lapse in appropriations.

www.govexec.com

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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 2d

Now that the data is backfilled, the deterministic AIFS did quite well with Typhoon Halong - it was the only model I track on my site that consistently depicted a quick recurve south of Japan:

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Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 2d

Though warmth in the Caribbean Sea is not at 2023 or 2024 levels as of yesterday (5 October 2025), it's noticeably beyond what's been observed via area-wide sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in other years since 1982.

Line plots of area-averaged sea surface temperature in the Caribbean Sea as of October 5, 2025. Black shows the 1991-2020 average, red shows 2023, orange shows 2024, and blue shows 2025 (so far). An inset map depicts October 5th's map of anomalies, where the dashed box represents the averaging region used to make the line plot values. These are computed from NOAA's OISST dataset using Python.

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National Hurricane Center Bot @nhcbot.bsky.social · 3d

8am EDT Oct 5th -- NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave (#AL95) which now has a high chance (70% 🔴) of formation over the next week. It is forecast to approach the Leeward Islands by late this week. Late... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1974805335572693115