Scholar

Isabelle Guinaudeau

Videos
H-index: 14
Political science 73%
Sociology 8%
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Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau, Simon Hix, Sara B. Hobolt , and 2 more

zeynsom.bsky.social
Still confused about EPSA vs. EPSS? Which conference should you go to? Here is a link to clarify things: epssnet.org/uncategorize... TL;DR: "EPSA" community will be in Belfast. Same community, new organisation, bigger mission; slightly new name; and a very different foundation @epssnet.bsky.social
a man with glasses says look can 't you see it 's obvious netflix
ALT: a man with glasses says look can 't you see it 's obvious netflix
media.tenor.com
15 28

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
Our paper on issue competition now with page numbers 😊 Grossman & Guinaudeau (2025), "Tunnels of Attention: Reconsidering Issue Competition", Comparative Political Studies, vol. 58, no. 2, pp. 2559-2593.
egrossman.bsky.social
Emiliano Grossman @egrossman.bsky.social · Nov 28
Some papers are a long time in the making. This one, written with the excellent @iguinaudeau.bsky.social, took long and I am incredibly grad to see it published. 1/8 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
19

Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau, Ruth Dassonneville, Stefan Müller , and 2 more

ronjasczepanski.bsky.social
Ever asked yourself how to detect and extract social groups from texts with computational social science? @haukelicht.bsky.social and me have a solution for you out at @bjpols.bsky.social. You can also find the pre-trained models on huggingface!
bjpols.bsky.social
British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · Sep 1
NEW -

Detecting Group Mentions in Political Rhetoric A Supervised Learning Approach - cup.org/45WZppQ

- @haukelicht.bsky.social & @ronjasczepanski.bsky.social

#OpenAccess
BJPolS Abstract discussing a social science research method that uses text analysis for understanding group language patterns and political leanings, mentioning the use of British articles and generating new empirical insights.
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Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau, Ruth Dassonneville, Stefan Müller , and 2 more

bjpols.bsky.social
NEW -

Detecting Group Mentions in Political Rhetoric A Supervised Learning Approach - cup.org/45WZppQ

- @haukelicht.bsky.social & @ronjasczepanski.bsky.social

#OpenAccess
BJPolS Abstract discussing a social science research method that uses text analysis for understanding group language patterns and political leanings, mentioning the use of British articles and generating new empirical insights.
1 7 24

Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau, Cas Mudde, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

williamlallen.bsky.social
As we enter September, you may see posts with news of jobs, promotions, grants, fellowships, and the like. That’s great! We should celebrate with colleagues, especially in an industry where rejection is the modal outcome. 1/n
1 11 49

Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau

sciencespo.bsky.social
Vous cherchez à explorer les attitudes électorales sous la Vᵉ République ?
Grâce à ReQuest, retrouvez les enquêtes par sondage en sciences humaines et sociales pertinentes pour vos sujets de recherche.
Un outil précieux du @cdsp-sciencespo.bsky.social pour comparer les données➡️ request.sciencespo.fr
4 8

Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau, Ben H. Ansell, Catherine E. De Vries , and 2 more

valentimvicente.bsky.social
The Portuguese far right party CH has been growing spectacularly, shattering views of the country as immune to this phenomenon.

This has prompted a discussion about where their votes come from.

Some thoughts on this, prompted by newly released survey data:
Plot with the evolution of vote share for CH: 1.3% to 7.28 % to 18.06% to 22.08%
2 56 120

by Stefan Müller — Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau, Sara B. Hobolt

stefanmueller.bsky.social
Received a complimentary copy of “Foundations of European Politics” after commenting on new chapters. Such a good textbook: clear theory, empirical evidence, and free interactive data exercises.

@catherinedevries.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @sopro.bsky.social @jbslapin.bsky.social
Book “Foundations of European Politics” Vote shares of populist parties across Europe Frequency of majority, minority, and caretaker governments in Europe Table of contents
3 5 34

by Ruth Dassonneville — Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau, Hugo Mercier, Lucas Leemann , and 4 more

rdassonneville.bsky.social
‼️ There are a few more days left to apply for the PhD positions in my group at KU Leuven. Make sure to send in applications by July 4! 👇
rdassonneville.bsky.social
Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · Jun 3
I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices!

Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...

Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!
2 PhD positions in Electoral behavior
2 PhD positions to research how social group memberships become connected to vote choices
www.kuleuven.be
46 50

by Joanna Bryson — Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau, Ruth Dassonneville

cornelius-erfort.bsky.social
I took a closer look at the program #EPSA2024 and found some interesting trends – there seem to be more US based scholars than last year 🇺🇸

@epsanet.bsky.social‬

A thread on this year's authors and affiliations 🧵
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by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
Very happy to be at the EPSA conference in Madrid and to ne about to meet so many colleagues on the programme - including the Paris folks I had missed while in Germany 😊
sciencespo-cee.bsky.social
Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social · Jun 25
#EPSA2025 starts tomorrow!

A dozen of our scholars have papers on political lotteries, challenges to democracy, autocratic legacies, the fate of mainstream parties, group-targeting in politics and media, climate politics, culture wars / backfire...

👉Details here: www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
EPSA 2025 - Madrid 26 - 28 June espanet.org
8

Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau

sciencespo-cee.bsky.social
#EPSA2025 starts tomorrow!

A dozen of our scholars have papers on political lotteries, challenges to democracy, autocratic legacies, the fate of mainstream parties, group-targeting in politics and media, climate politics, culture wars / backfire...

👉Details here: www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
EPSA 2025 - Madrid 26 - 28 June espanet.org
1 3 15

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
... and impossible to walk through the beautiful streets of Göttingen without having Barbara's song playing in my head. A chanson about reconciliation. www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwW5...
Barbara - Göttingen (Official Lyric Video)
YouTube video by BarbaraOfficielVEVO
www.youtube.com
3

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
I love discovering academic traditions like this one in Göttingen — a handcart parade for new PhDs 😅 It was a real pleasure to read and discuss Robin Rentrop’s excellent thesis on how the youths' descriptive representation shapes their substantive representation in parliament.
theresmatthiess.bsky.social
Theres Matthieß @theresmatthiess.bsky.social · Jun 23
Very proud of Dr. @robrentrop.bsky.social who defended his doctoral thesis on the link between descriptive & substantial youth representation! 🎉👨🏻‍🎓🥳 As the tradition demands in Göttingen, we went to the Gänseliesel with a decorated handcart 😅 @iguinaudeau.bsky.social @ifdemgoettingen.bsky.social
1 1 12

Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau

theresmatthiess.bsky.social
Very proud of Dr. @robrentrop.bsky.social who defended his doctoral thesis on the link between descriptive & substantial youth representation! 🎉👨🏻‍🎓🥳 As the tradition demands in Göttingen, we went to the Gänseliesel with a decorated handcart 😅 @iguinaudeau.bsky.social @ifdemgoettingen.bsky.social
2 1 37

Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau, Christian Nadeau, Charles Girard , and 1 more

aureliabardon.bsky.social
Alors que la trentaine d'autrices et auteurs qui y ont contribué sont en train de corriger les épreuves de leurs chapitres, @bboudou.bsky.social et moi venons de recevoir la couverture de ce traité sobrement intitulé "Théorie Politique" - à paraître, si tout va bien, en septembre 2025!
Book cover with title "Théorie politique"
1 5 12

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
Merci encore de me les avoir fait découvrir !
1

Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau, Ruth Dassonneville, Rafael H. M. Pereira

vincentab.bsky.social
📚😅🎉

Yay!! I just submitted the complete manuscript of my upcoming book to the publisher!

Learn to easily and clearly interpret (almost) any stats model w/ R or Python. Simple ideas, consistent workflow, powerful tools, detailed case studies.

Read it for free @ marginaleffects.com

#RStats #PyData
Model to Meaning: How to interpret statistical models with marginaleffects for R and Python
21 150 600

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
Fantastisch ! Vielen Dank für die sehr nützliche Zusammensetzung und Analyse dieser Befunde.
1 9

Reposted by: Isabelle Guinaudeau

juliusk.bsky.social
Ende letzter Woche gab es einige Einwände gegen diesen Post. Ich habe deshalb nochmals Befunde zu sozial- und wirtschaftspolitischen Einstellungen der AfD-Wählerschaft zusammengetragen. Ebenfalls habe ich zu diesem Thema Survey-Daten der GLES und des ALLBUS ausgewertet. Ein langer Thread.🧵
8 51 180

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
Thanks a lot!
1

by Isabelle Guinaudeau — Reposted by: Marieke Louis

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
📢 The French Political Science Association would like to map initiatives to disseminate political science findings to a broader audience (podcasts, blogs, policy briefs...) 👀 Which ones would you recommend (in english, french or german)?

(self-promotion very welcome, thanks!)
2 4 6

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
Please get in touch if you are interested in reading the full paper and learning more about how coalitions constrain mandate representation!
2

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
We wil see in the coming weeks the compromises CDU and SPD will have to find on the other topics for which they have made antagonist promises (actually most policy areas, as the open expert survey shows). oes25.de/OES25prerele...
Parteienwettbewerb vor der Bundestagswahl im Spiegel des Open Expert Surveys
oes25.de
1 1

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
Merz’s hardline pledge on debt was likely made knowing it would be untenable (because of coalition constraints AND structural investment needs). He likely hoped to win votes on fiscal rigor and shift blame for making huge debts onto partners (which does not seem to work very well).
1 1

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
The need to relax Germany’s constitutional debt brake isn’t new. 🔴 SPD and 🟢 Greens have long made the case that the situation (in particular with regard to infrastructures and climate transition) would become intractable otherwise. Merz and the ⚫️ CDU knew this.
1 1

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
Merz’s U-turn on the debt brake could thus be seen as an example of coalition constraints: election pledges meet the realities of bargaining. Compromise is inevitable when multiple parties must govern together. But there’s more to the story.
1 1

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
... and the SPD has made relaxing the debt brake a precondition. Important pledges (which we measure as those repeated several times in the program) are pushed by the coalition partners and more likely to survive:
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by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
This should favor the CDU which controls almost twice as many seats as the SPD. At the same time, the SPD is pivotal for government-formation. The CDU has not much alternative.
1 1

by Isabelle Guinaudeau

iguinaudeau.bsky.social
8/ Larger parties dominate negotiations and secure more (up to 75%) of their pledges, while small parties place much less (down to 40% for the Greens in 2002). Gamson's Law seems to extend from office to policy payoffs.
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References

Fields & subjects

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