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Thomas J. Hayes

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H-index: 25
Political science 47%
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

jotatx.bsky.social
@chrischirp.bsky.social is doing a fantastic work here
www.trumpactiontracker.info
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by John Holbein — Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Joanne Spetz, Efrén O. Pérez , and 2 more

johnholbein1.bsky.social
Look at how Trump's tariffs are affecting retail prices.
3 17 82

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Catherine C. Eckel

conradhackett.bsky.social
The balance of public opinion is against abortion being legal in only one state, Arkansas.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
In 34 states and D.C., more people say abortion generally should be legal than say it generally should be illegal. For example, in the District of Columbia, 81% of adults say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Support for legal abortion also stands at about 75% or higher in several New England states, including Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Connecticut. Meanwhile, people in Arkansas are more likely to say abortion should generally be illegal (57%) rather than legal (41%). Arkansas is the only state where the balance of public opinion is against abortion by a statistically significant margin. In 15 states, the shares saying abortion should be legal and saying it should be illegal are not significantly different once the margins of sampling error in each state are taken into account.
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

claireadida.bsky.social
Trump bill is the second most unpopular in recent history. GOP don’t care.

via @gelliottmorris.com
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

albertsonb2.bsky.social
Sharing this one because it should be a bigger story-

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/u...
Pardoned Jan. 6 Rioter Who Threatened Police Joins Justice Dept.
www.nytimes.com
4 30 63

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Christian E. Weller, Michael Jones‐Correa , and 2 more

chrismurphyct.bsky.social
Ok, so Republicans just introduced a 900 page bill none of them have read. But my team is going through it line by line and on this 🧵you can see the hidden provisions we found. Will update all day.

1/ NEW Medicaid cuts, so now 17 million - instead of 16M - lose health care.
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

mirandayaver.bsky.social
To top it all off, as I wrote in @medpagetoday.bsky.social, the bill goes against the federalism principles that Republicans have historically espoused, literally penalizing states for offering more generous health coverage with their own state funds. www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/seco...
Opinion | Will States' Rights Go the Way of Medicaid Funding?
Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' bolsters federal power
www.medpagetoday.com
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

mirandayaver.bsky.social
Now let’s talk behavioral health. The opioid epidemic ravaged Appalachia (where I live, and which largely voted for Trump), and Medicaid is critical lifeline for people requiring treatment for mental health and substance use disorders, as I write on in @statnews.com www.statnews.com/2025/06/12/m...
Medicaid cuts would devastate mental health, substance use treatment services in red states
Though behavioral health conditions do not discriminate between Democrats and Republicans, the Medicaid cuts may be particularly damaging for residents of red states.
www.statnews.com
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

mirandayaver.bsky.social
As Republicans expedite their efforts to rip health coverage from millions of Americans, re-upping my writing on the not so-beautiful bill. First, my piece in The Hill w/ @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social on harms to rural (conservative) communities (ex: hospital closures). thehill.com/opinion/heal...
Medicaid cuts will harm rural Republican communities most
Trump’s budget will actively harm the health and incomes of rural communities and Republican voters, well beyond those who themselves are enrolled in Medicaid.
thehill.com
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

gelliottmorris.com
One of the tough things about covering Trump’s 2nd term is that he is breaking so many laws & norms that when you cover them each on their own, you come off as an anti-Trump Dem pundit w “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” But when you list it all out things indeed look pretty alarming
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

nycsouthpaw.bsky.social
This is America.
Maydee, still confronting the officers, says "Where is the warrant?" Officer Lugo, according to his nameplate, says "Ma'am we are trying our best but they are federal." Morales again asks for the warrant. "They're federal." "They still need a warrant." Another officer, frustrated, says "They don't need a warrant." Finally, one of them tells the truth. Due process is not a matter they're concerned with.
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by Daniel Ziblatt — Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Scott Gehlbach, Daphne Halikiopoulou

dziblatt.bsky.social
Appeasement, as Churchill warned, is like feeding a crocodile and hoping to be the last one eaten.

Levitsky, Way, and me today in New York Times

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/o...
Opinion | No One Has Ever Defeated Autocracy From the Sidelines
www.nytimes.com
14 160 480

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

sky.skymarchini.net
Again: he is not going to back down from tariffs because the imports collapse is an explicitly good thing to him. It’s the whole goal of the policy.

He sees the number of containers going to zero and thinks *that is a success* because it means we’re not buying things from those foreigners anymore.
atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · May 7
Trump: "We were losing a trillion dollars a year. Now we're not losing anything, you know? That's the way I look at it. We were losing with China on trade a trillion dollars a year."
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

jonathancohn.bsky.social
The US government is pumping right-wing conspiracy theories into other countries. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Embattled Voice of America to use newsfeed from hard-right network
One America News will now provide news and video to government-funded organization
www.theguardian.com
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Peter A. Stott, Timon McPhearson , and 15 more

bobkopp.net
There’s so much happening right now, I thought I’d put together a running thread on the dismantling of #climate and research and knowledge infrastructure in the United States 🧵
63 770 1.2K

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

jamellebouie.net
they are literal segregationists apnews.com/article/scho...
The Justice Department ended a decades-old school desegregation order. Others are expected to fall
The Justice Department is lifting a school desegregation order in Louisiana dating to the Civil Rights Movement, calling its continued existence a “historical wrong” and suggesting that others across ...
apnews.com
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by Ryan Enos — Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

dandrezner.bsky.social
“86% oppose the United States trying to take control of Canada. Eighty percent oppose Trump serving a third term, 76% oppose trying to take control of Greenland and 66% oppose sending U.S. citizens to foreign prisons.” abcnews.go.com/Politics/ame...
Most Americans oppose Trump 3rd term, taking control of Greenland and Canada: POLL
The poll finds that Americans widely oppose the U.S. trying to take control of Canada and Greenland, sending U.S. citizens to foreign prisons and a third Trump term.
abcnews.go.com
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

hshierholz.bsky.social
Welp, the federal minimum wage is now officially a poverty wage (as in, a full-time worker earning the federal minimum wage gets paid less than the poverty line for a single person). www.epi.org/blog/the-fed...
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by Adam Bonica — Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

adambonica.bsky.social
Trump's ActBlue attacks serve two goals: Cripple Dems' small-dollar machine (where GOP mega-donors can't compete) while forcing Democrats deeper into the arms of their own billionaires and mega-donors. Not just about winning—it's about kneecapping Dem candidates who refuse to bow to elite interests.
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by Justin Wolfers — Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

justinwolfers.bsky.social
Something has happened in the last three months that has led basically every economic forecaster to predict that inflation will be substantially higher than they previously thought.
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

missingthept.bsky.social
The Accidental Harvard Letter
The Accidental Deportation
The Accidental Tariff on an Uninhabited Island
The Accidental Disclosure of War Plans to a Journalist
The Accidental Firings of Nuclear Safety Workers
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by Ryan Enos — Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, James Q. Wilson

gelliottmorris.com
New from me: Trump's job approval rating on the economy is now at an all-time low, even worse than during COVID-19. Opinion in his handling of inflation is at -18 on average! He has now lost the GOP's single best political asset of the last decade.

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/chart-of-t...
Trump is losing voters on the economy
Inflation got Donald Trump elected in 2024. Now, his ratings on economic issues are at their lowest point ever, even worse than during COVID-19
www.gelliottmorris.com
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

axios.com
In his first 100 days, Trump has declared more national emergencies — more creatively and more aggressively — than any president in modern history.

The emergency powers were originally designed to give the president flexibility in rare moments of crisis.
Trump redefines "emergency" to impose his will
Powers originally crafted to give the president flexibility in rare moments of crisis now form the backbone of Trump's agenda.
www.axios.com
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Gary Hollibaugh

kyledcheney.bsky.social
UPDATE: Trump seems to say for the first time that U.S. lacks ability to recover those sent to El Salvador if government deports someone erroneously. Says it’s totally up to Bukele. Seems to leave out that he could … ask Bukele to help fix an error. www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

axios.com
In less than one week, many Americans will no longer be able to apply for Social Security benefits over the phone, setting the stage for disruptions and upheaval.

Nearly 6 million seniors live more than 46.6 miles, roundtrip, from a field office, per a new analysis. trib.al/5XSPqyL
A choropleth map of the United States showing the share of seniors who live at least 46.6 miles round-trip from the nearest Social Security Field Office. Rates are especially high in the Midwest and Great Plains states, with Montana (40%), South Dakota (45%), North Dakota (49%) and Wyoming (65%) topping the list.
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Joshua L. Rosenbloom, David W. Lawson

pamherd.bsky.social
Trump has cut the NIH budget by more than half in defiance of Congressionally mandated appropriations for the agency. No comparison historically, not even the Great Recession. This is clearly not legal and Congress needs to address it.
Graph from the Washington Post showing declines in spending at NIH. New grants cut from 1 billion to around 400 million. Overall grants down from 4.5 billion to 2.4 billion.
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Anna Gelpern

mjtoma.bsky.social
The Trump administration quietly reinstated a State Dept program allowing the tracking of Ukrainian children sent to Russia. There was enormous pressure--after the story was first reported in the US by @gregsargent.bsky.social in the @newrepublic.com. See newrepublic.com/article/1927...
Trump Admin Nixed Contract Helping Kidnapped Ukrainian Children
The fate of abducted Ukrainian children is a white-hot issue for peace negotiations—and it looks like the State Department may have just undercut the cause.
newrepublic.com
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by Ben H. Ansell — Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Richard Hall, Erik Bleich , and 1 more

chadbourn.bsky.social
Kseniia Petrova, a Russian scientist at Harvard Medical School, was detained at Logan Airport after returning from France and sent to an ICE detention in Louisiana, The Insider reports.

A big critic of Putin and the war in Ukraine, she may now be deported to Russia.
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Brian Schaffner

miacosta.bsky.social
My book is now officially out! How Politicians Polarize introduces and documents the concept of "negative representation" – when representatives focus on the other side rather than their own.

Some key findings: 🧵

www.amazon.com/How-Politici...
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Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

gelliottmorris.com
Here's the historical chart some people have been asking for (@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social)
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