Victor Galaz
banner
vgalaz.bsky.social
Victor Galaz
@vgalaz.bsky.social

🇸🇪 🇨🇱 🌎 Associate Prof Pol Sci Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Uni + Beijer Institute at Royal Swe Academy of Sciences. Politics, AI, nuclear and new tech in the Anthropocene.
👨🏽‍💻ibland för Svenska Dagbladet Kultur.
https://linktr.ee/victorgalaz .. more

Environmental science 35%
Physics 10%
Pinned
This took me a while to finish. My new book "Dark Machines - How Artificial Intelligence, Digitalization and Automation is Changing our Living Planet" can now be pre-ordered at Routledge (UK/US).

www.routledge.com/Dark-Machine...

Reposted by Victor Galaz

Inte mycket nytt under årets klimatmöte. Om det inte vore för det ”vibbskifte” hos världens ultrarika: ”Supereliten bryr sig inte längre om klimatet, eftersom de har en plan B.” www.svd.se/a/V6lxl4/ult...
Ultrarika förbereder sig – med bunkrar | Victor Galaz
KOMMENTAR. Supereliten bryr sig inte längre om klimatet, eftersom de har en plan B. Efter COP30 i Belém anas ett skifte i tonen kring klimatet.
www.svd.se

Klimatförhandlingarna #COP30 är slut. Vad är nytt denna gång, egentligen? Min spaning om supereliten, tech-miljardärer, och alla vi andra i dagens SvD Kultur (online).

www.svd.se/a/V6lxl4/ult...
Ultrarika förbereder sig – med bunkrar | Victor Galaz
KOMMENTAR. Supereliten bryr sig inte längre om klimatet, eftersom de har en plan B. Efter COP30 i Belém anas ett skifte i tonen kring klimatet.
www.svd.se

Reposted by Victor Galaz

This is a remarkable paper on the climate-induced heatwave death in Europe and how they will increase in a warming world.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Increasing risk of mass human heat mortality if historical weather patterns recur - Nature Climate Change
The authors couple calculations of historical heatwave intensity at present and future global temperatures with exposure–response functions to quantify mortality from extreme heat events in Europe. Th...
www.nature.com

Stay safe colleagues and others at #COP30 !

www.bbc.com/news/article...
COP30 evacuated after fire breaks out
Thousands of people are attending the UN climate talks in Brazil.
www.bbc.com

Reposted by Victor Galaz

Asylum seekers’ jewellery could be seized to pay for processing costs, says Home Office minister- UK government sinks even lower!
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Asylum seekers’ jewellery could be seized to pay for processing costs, says Home Office minister
Idea borrowed from Denmark is latest attempt to reduce number of people seeking asylum in UK
www.theguardian.com

Herregud, vilken unik formuleringsförmåga som Lena Andersson besitter ändå, som kan få bloggosfärens stinkande kloaker av klimat- och vetenskapsförnekelse att framstå som sanningssökande och ”den ljuslåga som fria människor strävar mot”.
The ethics council to the vast Norwegian sovereign wealth fund (largest in the world) has been suspended by the Norwegian government.

Important & troubling piece by @martinsandbu.ft.com

www.ft.com/content/f6b3...
How Norway jeopardised its integrity overnight
Oslo abruptly changed the ethics rules for the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund
www.ft.com
A new state-by-state evaluation of the projected energy and water use of "AI" data centers in the US. Looks… real bad. Like, "undoing tech sector climate gains" bad.

Strongly recommends immediately ensuring any & all new "AI" data centers to run on existing & expanded renewables grids. Which… yeah.
Environmental impact and net-zero pathways for sustainable artificial intelligence servers in the USA - Nature Sustainability
The rapid expansion of AI server installations in the United States poses sustainability challenges in terms of water usage and carbon emissions. A study now quantifies these potential impacts and out...
www.nature.com

Whoever said that digital tech is neither bad nor good, just depends on how you use it, should read this article.

www.404media.co/google-has-c...
Google Has Chosen a Side in Trump's Mass Deportation Effort
Google is hosting a CBP app that uses facial recognition to identify immigrants, while simultaneously removing apps that report the location of ICE officials because Google sees ICE as a vulnerable gr...
www.404media.co
With current pledges, the world's on track for 2.6°C of warming in 2100 compared to preindustrial levels.

10 years ago, before the Paris agreement, it was 3.6°C

20+ years ago, we thought it would be 4-5°C

So 2.6°C is better, but the problem is that climate impacts are way worse than we predicted.
World still on track for catastrophic 2.6C temperature rise, report finds
Fossil fuel emissions have hit a record high while many nations have done too little to avert deadly global heating
www.theguardian.com
This is why we always need to tell people that the climate system and the living planet are one integrated whole. You can't stay within the Paris targets without also stewarding the biosphere.
A new Nature paper accompanying the Global Carbon Budget finds that the land and ocean sinks are 25% smaller and 7% smaller, respectively, than they would have been without the effects of climate change over 2015-24:
Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget | Nature
Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise, pushing atmospheric CO2 levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36°C, within years of breaching the 1.5°C limit 1,2. Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO2 sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers 1. Here, we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in the global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, while net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards 1. The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with new evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations 3,4. Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO2 increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation turn Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO2 sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO2 sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy.
www.nature.com
A new Nature paper accompanying the Global Carbon Budget finds that the land and ocean sinks are 25% smaller and 7% smaller, respectively, than they would have been without the effects of climate change over 2015-24:
Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget | Nature
Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise, pushing atmospheric CO2 levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36°C, within years of breaching the 1.5°C limit 1,2. Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO2 sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers 1. Here, we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in the global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, while net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards 1. The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with new evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations 3,4. Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO2 increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation turn Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO2 sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO2 sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy.
www.nature.com

Reposted by Victor Galaz

Chinese and EU emissions were more or less flat in 2025 (Chinese emissions may have actually declined slightly, but its too early to know for sure: www.carbonbrief.org/...).

US emissions increases drove much of the increase in global emissions in 2025.

And this summary is 💯 (but note that I have yet to read the actual report).

Trump, air conditioning, and AI are all changing energy and carbon emission projections. Neat summary of the latest IEA analysis by @heatmap.news

heatmap.news/energy/iea-w...
Data Centers and Natural Gas Are Bending the Climate Transition Curve, IEA Says
The group’s latest World Energy Outlook reflects the sharp swerve in U.S. policy over the past year.
heatmap.news

Reposted by Victor Galaz

🧵 New paper thread! 🧵 We use satellite data to assess global methane emissions trends and seasonality. A greenhouse gas second only to CO2 in impact, methane concentrations surged in 2020 and 2021 for unclear reasons. We investigate in our paper. acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/...
Trends and seasonality of 2019–2023 global methane emissions inferred from a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (CHEEREIO v1.3.1) applied to TROPOMI satellite observations
Abstract. We use 2019–2023 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane to quantify global methane emissions at monthly 2° × 2.5° resolution with a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter ...
acp.copernicus.org

The IEA has brought back the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) in the World Energy Outlook (WEO).

I think this will be useful. Fossil CO2 emissions keep rising, when they should be falling. It is time to admit that. So I hope the CPS can help address this issue.

www.iea.org/reports/worl...

1/

Reposted by Victor Galaz

At the same time Trump is bringing back confederate statutes and base names, he is erasing attention to persons of color in American military history. From earlier this year:
open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...
Whitewashing American history
The Trump Presidency as a project of erasure
open.substack.com
1/ The US Government has quietly removed a memorial to Black soldiers who died in World War II from the Netherlands American Cemetery in Margraten, South Limburg. The move follows a complaint from the right-wing Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission. ⬇️

Extremely disturbing article, and the scale of this problem is really concerning. I’ve felt for a long time that many have underestimated the deep influence of the mindless rollout of AI-chatbots on peoples’ emotions at scale.

ffs
The Labor Department launched a social media campaign with illustrations that appear to be AI-generated and that almost exclusively feature White men — part of an effort to promote the hiring of American citizens over foreign workers.
Labor Department social media campaign depicts a White male workforce
The campaign has drawn scrutiny, with critics saying it is not realistically portraying the country’s diversity and is sending messages that feel exclusionary.
www.washingtonpost.com

Reposted by Victor Galaz

The Labor Department launched a social media campaign with illustrations that appear to be AI-generated and that almost exclusively feature White men — part of an effort to promote the hiring of American citizens over foreign workers.
Labor Department social media campaign depicts a White male workforce
The campaign has drawn scrutiny, with critics saying it is not realistically portraying the country’s diversity and is sending messages that feel exclusionary.
www.washingtonpost.com

I think about this widely shared and cited paper by the prominent economist Nicholas Stern a lot (and especially this paragraph in yellow) whenever I read news like this.

www.nature.com/articles/s44...

The US is the world's largest oil and gas producer. Yet, "China is now making more money from exporting green technology than America makes from exporting fossil fuels."
China’s clean-energy revolution will reshape markets and politics
The world’s biggest manufacturer now has an interest in the world decarbonising
www.economist.com

A U.S. firm led by former Israeli government physicists, Stardust seeks to patent its proprietary sunlight-scattering particle.

heatmap.news/climate-tech...
Exclusive: Stardust Solutions Raises $60 Million to Build a Solar Geoengineering System by 2030
A U.S. firm led by former Israeli government physicists, Stardust seeks to patent its proprietary sunlight-scattering particle — but it won’t deploy its technology until global governments authorize s...
heatmap.news

“Hur mycket ska vi betala egentligen?” Ja, kanske så mycket som behövs för att säkra en bra framtid åt alla? Och för att kompensera för de irreparabla skador som de rika ländernas utsläpp åsamkat fattigare länder? Inte svårare än så 👑

www.sverigesradio.se/play/artikel...
Klimatmötet igång – kungen tveksam till om länderna kommer enas - Ekot
På torsdagen inleddes toppmötet i brasilianska Belém, där ledare från hela världen samlas för att debattera hur klimatmålen ska uppnås.Ulf Kristersson ...
www.sverigesradio.se
I fully believe in the corporate death penalty and believe we would be a better world if OpenAI lost its corporate charter and was forcibly dissolved.

www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/u...
ChatGPT encouraged college graduate to commit suicide, family claims in lawsuit against OpenAI | CNN
A 23-year-old man killed himself in Texas after ChatGPT ‘goaded’ him to commit suicide, his family says in a lawsuit.
www.cnn.com