Andy Berner
@andybrnr.bsky.social
Meteorology PhD, data scientist, ski mountaineer, GSP dad
Reposted by Andy Berner
The load-bearing part of that is "effectively." Many tools (like CAD) are difficult to use AT ALL -- the unskilled are unlikely to be misled into thinking they have gotten good results. What makes current AI dangerous is that is so easy to delude yourself into *thinking* you're using it effectively.
and, like, people like @ed3d.net fully grant that they are difficult to use effectively but argue for certain use cases they are such a multiplier that you better—fine! But the idea that every historian, genre novelist, commercial artist needs to develop this technical skill set because ???, cmon
December 22, 2025 at 12:30 AM
The load-bearing part of that is "effectively." Many tools (like CAD) are difficult to use AT ALL -- the unskilled are unlikely to be misled into thinking they have gotten good results. What makes current AI dangerous is that is so easy to delude yourself into *thinking* you're using it effectively.
Reposted by Andy Berner
Everyone thinks there are just gonna be these “insights.”
(“Insight” being a term of art that means “someone else’s work product that will absolve me of all accountability as a decision maker”)
(“Insight” being a term of art that means “someone else’s work product that will absolve me of all accountability as a decision maker”)
December 20, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Everyone thinks there are just gonna be these “insights.”
(“Insight” being a term of art that means “someone else’s work product that will absolve me of all accountability as a decision maker”)
(“Insight” being a term of art that means “someone else’s work product that will absolve me of all accountability as a decision maker”)
Great thread.
This Yglesias piece in the NYT is horrifically bad. Almost every "fact" it cites is provably false. At best it is cocktail party banter from a pundit who knows nothing of energy. At worst, it was cut/paste from oil industry talking points. So, a rebuttal: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/o...
Opinion | Obama Supported It. The Left in Canada and Norway Does. Why Don’t Democrats?
www.nytimes.com
December 20, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Great thread.
Reposted by Andy Berner
LA machinists -- we need 12 of these ASAP. 12x quantity to start, 7075 AL, dimensions 4.5 * 10.5 * 13.5. Dm me if interested in taking this on
December 20, 2025 at 3:32 AM
LA machinists -- we need 12 of these ASAP. 12x quantity to start, 7075 AL, dimensions 4.5 * 10.5 * 13.5. Dm me if interested in taking this on
Reposted by Andy Berner
“The night everything at DCA finally went wrong” sure looks like the kind of careful, meticulously-sourced story I wanted to read about this disaster.
The level of background knowledge is clear. As is the understanding of the human toll.
I hope it gets widely recognized in journalism circles.
The level of background knowledge is clear. As is the understanding of the human toll.
I hope it gets widely recognized in journalism circles.
For the last few months, I've been working on a story about January's crash near Washington, D.C. What I learned was that it was simply an accident waiting to happen.
Special Report: The night everything at DCA finally went wrong (via @theaircurrent.com) theaircurrent.com/aviation-saf...
Special Report: The night everything at DCA finally went wrong (via @theaircurrent.com) theaircurrent.com/aviation-saf...
Special Report: The night everything at DCA finally went wrong
D.C. midair crash was the result of a complete collapse of the protections designed to keep aviation safe — and the institutions that design and maintain them
theaircurrent.com
December 19, 2025 at 4:16 AM
“The night everything at DCA finally went wrong” sure looks like the kind of careful, meticulously-sourced story I wanted to read about this disaster.
The level of background knowledge is clear. As is the understanding of the human toll.
I hope it gets widely recognized in journalism circles.
The level of background knowledge is clear. As is the understanding of the human toll.
I hope it gets widely recognized in journalism circles.
Reposted by Andy Berner
I said “it sounds like you’re just feeding municipal vehicles to the hill” and the mayor of Montreal started crying
if tumblr dies I need this video to make it's seasonal rotation here instead just in case, Happy holidays 🎄
December 18, 2025 at 6:03 PM
I said “it sounds like you’re just feeding municipal vehicles to the hill” and the mayor of Montreal started crying
Reposted by Andy Berner
And this is the thing that really fucking annoys me, like, that’s all these guys care about, money, money, money, they should be taxed into oblivion
At least Ellison will make lots of money while none of the national security concerns are addressed. Priorities
December 18, 2025 at 11:49 PM
And this is the thing that really fucking annoys me, like, that’s all these guys care about, money, money, money, they should be taxed into oblivion
Reposted by Andy Berner
Good news: The number of people traveling to the U.S. illegally has plunged.
Bad news: The number of people traveling to the U.S. legally has plunged.
The common thread: Nobody wants to come here.
Bad news: The number of people traveling to the U.S. legally has plunged.
The common thread: Nobody wants to come here.
December 18, 2025 at 5:09 AM
Good news: The number of people traveling to the U.S. illegally has plunged.
Bad news: The number of people traveling to the U.S. legally has plunged.
The common thread: Nobody wants to come here.
Bad news: The number of people traveling to the U.S. legally has plunged.
The common thread: Nobody wants to come here.
Straight up vandalism that is making us all less safe.
NSF is about to dismantle NCAR at Russell Vought's direction to protect the fossil fuel industry. It's hard to communicate just how much NCAR does, so let's take a look: I've never worked at NCAR, and I've worked with NCAR researchers once ever. What scientific discoveries has NCAR made possible? 👇
December 17, 2025 at 4:53 AM
Straight up vandalism that is making us all less safe.
I don't understand how anyone could think this is defensible methodology. Not that there aren't lots of good uses for synthetic data, but this will absolutely be used in context where it is utterly inappropriate - as a *substitute* for surveys of real people, and, uh... no. Just, no.
Did you know that from tomorrow, Qualtrics is offering synthetic panels (AI-generated participants)?
Follow me down a rabbit hole I'm calling "doing science is tough and I'm so busy, can't we just make up participants?"
Follow me down a rabbit hole I'm calling "doing science is tough and I'm so busy, can't we just make up participants?"
December 16, 2025 at 6:50 PM
I don't understand how anyone could think this is defensible methodology. Not that there aren't lots of good uses for synthetic data, but this will absolutely be used in context where it is utterly inappropriate - as a *substitute* for surveys of real people, and, uh... no. Just, no.
Reposted by Andy Berner
Reposted by Andy Berner
Rob Reiner, a man who made such amazing movies that even the vilest people who love Donald Trump and hate everything Rob Reiner stood for politically are like, "whoa, too far man, you can't say that about the dude who made The Princess Bride"
December 15, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Rob Reiner, a man who made such amazing movies that even the vilest people who love Donald Trump and hate everything Rob Reiner stood for politically are like, "whoa, too far man, you can't say that about the dude who made The Princess Bride"
Reposted by Andy Berner
My first take on the Michael Green "$140,000 minimum wage" discourse.
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Are we underestimating who is poor?
Michael Green has caused a bit of a dust-up with a piece that was picked up by the Free Press, and which he followed up on at his substack newsletter.
open.substack.com
December 12, 2025 at 9:26 PM
My first take on the Michael Green "$140,000 minimum wage" discourse.
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Reposted by Andy Berner
This guy’s not on bsky but the experiments are really interesting, and fit my sense that LLMs will reliably give good answers about things that only highly specialized nerds have ever written anything about, and do better the larger that community of nerds is and the more unique their jargon is. BUT
December 12, 2025 at 4:17 AM
This guy’s not on bsky but the experiments are really interesting, and fit my sense that LLMs will reliably give good answers about things that only highly specialized nerds have ever written anything about, and do better the larger that community of nerds is and the more unique their jargon is. BUT
Reposted by Andy Berner
cannot stress enough how the leading quality i want in 2028 dem primary fronteunnwr is “vengeful”
One under-appreciated part of this: note the bit below about “and their dependents.”
Under the Trump admin’s new policy, dependent children of visa applicants are not allowed to have their social media set to private during the entire visa process. They MUST make their social media public.
Under the Trump admin’s new policy, dependent children of visa applicants are not allowed to have their social media set to private during the entire visa process. They MUST make their social media public.
From the US Embassy in London today.
December 12, 2025 at 3:04 AM
cannot stress enough how the leading quality i want in 2028 dem primary fronteunnwr is “vengeful”
Reposted by Andy Berner
Going to create a startup that maintains unhinged pro-MAGA accounts for potential visa applicants
December 12, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Going to create a startup that maintains unhinged pro-MAGA accounts for potential visa applicants
Reposted by Andy Berner
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
December 9, 2025 at 1:58 PM
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
Reposted by Andy Berner
Turns out it didn't have legs
Mark Zuckerberg’s gamble on the ‘Metaverse’ has cost Meta more than $77B
The company now plans to cut spending on it and shift focus to AI wearables instead
(via WSJ)
The company now plans to cut spending on it and shift focus to AI wearables instead
(via WSJ)
December 7, 2025 at 4:24 AM
Turns out it didn't have legs
Reposted by Andy Berner
Committing atrocities is a loyalty test and binds you together with others who have done the same, severing other bonds of care and loyalty.
The atrocity literature highlights this over and over.
The atrocity literature highlights this over and over.
December 4, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Committing atrocities is a loyalty test and binds you together with others who have done the same, severing other bonds of care and loyalty.
The atrocity literature highlights this over and over.
The atrocity literature highlights this over and over.
Reposted by Andy Berner
one of the reasons that the STEM-humanitiies culture war is stupid is that there's a lot of interesting stuff there at the intersection of the two. like it's very sociologically interesting the way that programming languages are maintained, propagated, and evolve.
December 2, 2025 at 9:23 PM
one of the reasons that the STEM-humanitiies culture war is stupid is that there's a lot of interesting stuff there at the intersection of the two. like it's very sociologically interesting the way that programming languages are maintained, propagated, and evolve.
Reposted by Andy Berner
This is why you should act like everything a potential leader says is sincere. If they sincerely believe war crimes are good, that's disqualifying.
If they say it insincerely, their lying is disqualifying.
If they say it insincerely, their lying is disqualifying.
December 2, 2025 at 6:56 PM
This is why you should act like everything a potential leader says is sincere. If they sincerely believe war crimes are good, that's disqualifying.
If they say it insincerely, their lying is disqualifying.
If they say it insincerely, their lying is disqualifying.
Reposted by Andy Berner
They thought it was an act! They assumed Hegseth was insincere in his open advocacy of war crimes because they too are insincere in their beliefs.
I also think this is why the media lets so many Trump insanities slide: they assume he is insincere because they are too!
I also think this is why the media lets so many Trump insanities slide: they assume he is insincere because they are too!
This person who openly advocates war crimes, who lobbied for pardons for war criminals, and repeatedly disdains the laws and ethics of war, the one we confirmed as Secretary of Defense, turns out to have done war crimes. Shocking!
(But hey, if they're finally coming around, better late than never.)
(But hey, if they're finally coming around, better late than never.)
GOP Senator Says Reporting on Hegseth’s Kill Order ‘Shocked Us All’
December 2, 2025 at 6:54 PM
They thought it was an act! They assumed Hegseth was insincere in his open advocacy of war crimes because they too are insincere in their beliefs.
I also think this is why the media lets so many Trump insanities slide: they assume he is insincere because they are too!
I also think this is why the media lets so many Trump insanities slide: they assume he is insincere because they are too!
Yet another parallel with Putin’s Russia - we are led by a cloistered, paranoid leader surrounded by sycophants. Worked out great for them…
".. in his return to the presidency this year, Trump has seldom ventured across the country to anywhere other than his own clubs. .. Everyone around Trump, and everything he is seeing on TV and on his phone, is telling him that he’s right."
Trump’s echo chamber:
Very little U.S travel
No rallies or contact with supporters
Right-wing media
Dinners with rich donors and billionaires
Truth Social
Lack of staff to tell him no www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
Very little U.S travel
No rallies or contact with supporters
Right-wing media
Dinners with rich donors and billionaires
Truth Social
Lack of staff to tell him no www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
December 1, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Yet another parallel with Putin’s Russia - we are led by a cloistered, paranoid leader surrounded by sycophants. Worked out great for them…
Reposted by Andy Berner
Former army clemency & parole board member here. Boards I was on for GWOT war criminals — Mahmudiyah murders; Gibbs’s kill squad — had the common denominator of poor leadership. Leadership vacuum filled by “leaders” who viewed others as sub-human. We’re witnessing the same but at the national level.
November 30, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Former army clemency & parole board member here. Boards I was on for GWOT war criminals — Mahmudiyah murders; Gibbs’s kill squad — had the common denominator of poor leadership. Leadership vacuum filled by “leaders” who viewed others as sub-human. We’re witnessing the same but at the national level.
Reposted by Andy Berner
