Alejandro Schuler
@aschuler.bsky.social
390 followers 120 following 65 posts
Assistant Professor of Biostatistics UC Berkeley semiparametric statistics, machine learning, causal inference, stats/ML pedagogy, social justice Modern Causal Inference Book: alejandroschuler.github.io/mci/
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Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
junoryleejournalism.com
David Simon, creator of ‘The Wire’, being interviewed by Ari Shapiro (NPR)
SHAPIRO: OK, so you've spent your career creating television without Al, and I could imagine today you thinking, boy, I wish I had had that tool to solve those thorny problems...
SIMON: What?
SHAPIRO: ...Or saying...
SIMON: You imagine that?
SHAPIRO: ...Boy, if that had existed, it would have screwed me over.
SIMON: I don't think Al can remotely challenge what writers do at a fundamentally creative level.
SHAPIRO: But if you're trying to transition from scene five to scene six, and you're stuck with that transition, you could imagine plugging that portion of the script into an Al and say, give me 10 ideas for how to transition this.
SIMON: I'd rather put a gun in my mouth.
aschuler.bsky.social
I give 15m but usually all done beforehand. Done in lab/discussion section, TAs photograph all the little bubble answer sheets w/ phone, upload to gradescope, and all get autograded. My class is like 120 students so process has to scale.
aschuler.bsky.social
Although individually low-stakes, cumulatively students must pass a high percentage of the quizzes to pass the class. I use spec grading so that they can't use points in other categories of assessment to substitute
aschuler.bsky.social
More constant but lower-stakes formative assessments. My course has short (3 q) pass/fail, multiple choice, in-person quizzes every week. But students can retake (another version of) them some weeks later to get the credit back upon fail.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
bachpropagate.bsky.social
Look, we’re both very sorry about the widening gyre.
The US president on the phone in Dr Strangelove.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
donmoyn.bsky.social
The elimination of USAID is a moral atrocity and all involved made a choice to enable, and then lie about, ending the lives of some of the most vulnerable people in the world.
MAE SOT, Thailand (AP) - Mohammed Taher clutched the lifeless body of his 2-year-old son and wept. Ever since his family's food rations stopped arriving at their internment camp in Myanmar in April, the father had watched helplessly as his once-vibrant baby boy weakened, suffering from diarrhea and begging for food.
On May 21, exactly two weeks after Taher's little boy died, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sat before Congress and declared: "No one has died" because of his government's decision to gut its foreign aid program. Rubio also insisted: "No children are dying on my watch."
That, Taher says, "is a lie."
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
stevensenior.bsky.social
Just. Reduce. Child. Poverty.
wellcometrust.bsky.social
We want to transform early intervention for youth mental health.

Our new funding award will help achieve this.

We're supporting teams to accelerate the evaluation and roll out of effective social and psychological interventions.

Applications close 11 Nov ⤵️
wellcome.org/research-fun...
Benny Prawira, Lived Experience Advisor at Wellcome says, "My wish is that new psychosocial interventions can do more than just make youth 'feel better' – but actually help them stay in school, find jobs and rebuild relationships."
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
hpsvanessa.bsky.social
I only ever heard second-hand from my German relatives what the 1930s were like but it sounded like this. You see the story, it feels wrong, but everyone else around you is just carrying on, shopping, working, going to the cinema. So you do the same. Keep your head down, maybe this is fine? Normal?
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
alexblechman.bsky.social
Asking “is the postal service profitable?” is a new thing

If you visit a 1950s post office it looks like a Greek temple. They have statues of eagles. There’s a big mural of a flying woman holding a cornucopia. They didn’t whine “is the bronze bas-relief of Prosperity profitable?”
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
itaisher.bsky.social
This op-ed is excellent and I encourage everyone to read it.

Universities must reject the Trump compact.

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/o...
Opinion | Trump’s ‘Compact’ With Universities Is Just Extortion
www.nytimes.com
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
awmercer.bsky.social
I guess my point is it’s unphysical concepts all the way down. But for some reason people really don’t like this one in particular.

Sure, it’s not the only way to frame causal inference, but I’m not sure it’s inherently worse. Different frameworks mostly emphasize different sets of priorities.
aschuler.bsky.social
I don't believe the number 2 is "real" but I use it all the time.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
scottwiener.bsky.social
Literally bragging about sending gestapo into American cities with weapons of war to bust down doors & drag residents out of their beds because they’re Latino.

F*cking psychopaths
trumpwat.ch
Kristi Noem has posted a Michael Bayesque video of that crazy Border Patrol raid of an apartment building in Chicago. Her caption was "Chicago, we’re here for you."
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
scottwiener.bsky.social
The regime’s new proposed “compact” with universities — conditioning federal funds on giving up academic freedom & free speech & throwing trans & non-US students under the bus — is unconstitutional.

Every university must reject it. It’s classic hang together or hang separately.
Opinion | Trump’s ‘Compact’ With Universities Is Just Extortion
www.nytimes.com
aschuler.bsky.social
@jeffhamilton.bsky.social how did you know this is the content I crave
aschuler.bsky.social
Not that I remember! :)
aschuler.bsky.social
Using external data in trials can up power, but also bias. Some of my previous papers have tackled this, zeroing bias at the cost of power. In new work, we take the opposite fork: gaining max power and taking the bias hit, but with a rigorous way to protect from that bias.

arxiv.org/abs/2507.18876
A Non-Parametric Sensitivity Analysis for Bounding Bias in Hybrid Control Trials
In the digital era, it is easier than ever to collect and exploit rich covariate information in trials. Recent work explores how to use this information to integrate external controls, including the u...
arxiv.org
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
berkeleyctml.bsky.social
CTML GSRs Wenxin Zhang, Kaiwen Hou, and Alissa Gordon will be presenting their work next week at the 2025 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM). Innovations in causal inference, adaptive study design, and statistical methodology will be highlighted.
If you’re attending JSM—come show your support!
Mark your calendars: CTML graduate student researchers Wenxin Zhang, Kaiwen Hou, and Alissa Gordon will be presenting their work next week at the 2025 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), held August 2–7 in Nashville, Tennessee. Innovations in causal inference, adaptive study design, and statistical methodology will be highlighted.
If you’re attending JSM, don’t miss their sessions—come show your support!
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
c0nc0rdance.bsky.social
Just to be clear, this is a violation of the fundamental ethical principle in clinical trial design called "equipoise."

Equipoise means that no-one is exposed to excess risk just to test the therapy. That's specifically *why* vaccine trials don't use placebo arms.

Ethical violation as POLICY.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr will require all new vaccines to undergo placebo testing, WaPo reports
U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr intends to shift the way vaccines are tested, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday, citing a spokesperson from the HHS.
www.reuters.com
aschuler.bsky.social
what the fuck are you talking about how dare you talk shit about A Moon Shaped Pool