Christy Quirk
@cequirk.bsky.social
Opinion research and advocacy/political strategy in declining democracies and emerging autocracies. Don’t ask questions you don’t want the answers to. Nice, FR
quirkglobalstrategies.com
linkedin.com/in/christinequirk
Quirkglobalstrategies: Substack
quirkglobalstrategies.com
linkedin.com/in/christinequirk
Quirkglobalstrategies: Substack
Reposted by Christy Quirk
Marco Rubio just flew to Budapest to deliver a speech in which he provided a full endorsement of Viktor Orbán in the upcoming Hungarian elections.
Here is the letter he signed in 2019 warning about Hungary's "downward democratic trajectory" under Orbán
h/t Carrick Ryan
Here is the letter he signed in 2019 warning about Hungary's "downward democratic trajectory" under Orbán
h/t Carrick Ryan
February 17, 2026 at 11:42 AM
Marco Rubio just flew to Budapest to deliver a speech in which he provided a full endorsement of Viktor Orbán in the upcoming Hungarian elections.
Here is the letter he signed in 2019 warning about Hungary's "downward democratic trajectory" under Orbán
h/t Carrick Ryan
Here is the letter he signed in 2019 warning about Hungary's "downward democratic trajectory" under Orbán
h/t Carrick Ryan
Reposted by Christy Quirk
The other day I heard Bluesky described as a "discourse diaspora community" and I haven't been able to shake it as the skeleton key to the form and shape of conversations here. Everyone is sitting at the emigre cafe reading reports of the same dispatches from Old Twitter, idly dreaming of the fall.
February 17, 2026 at 2:33 AM
The other day I heard Bluesky described as a "discourse diaspora community" and I haven't been able to shake it as the skeleton key to the form and shape of conversations here. Everyone is sitting at the emigre cafe reading reports of the same dispatches from Old Twitter, idly dreaming of the fall.
He did what now
Via PBS News Hour, Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, today endorsed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
"Your sucess is our sucess," Rubio said.
Orbán, of course, has been the model for controlling the news media as a way to stay in power.
www.pbs.org/newshour/wor...
"Your sucess is our sucess," Rubio said.
Orbán, of course, has been the model for controlling the news media as a way to stay in power.
www.pbs.org/newshour/wor...
Viktor Orbán’s Hail Mary.
I was editor in chief of Hungary’s most-read independent daily until a pro-government media network bought the newspaper. It’s the fifth time in thirty years that politics has cost me my job—and it’s ...
www.cjr.org
February 17, 2026 at 12:52 AM
He did what now
Reposted by Christy Quirk
We really do need to underline this for people - because somehow the prevaling myth seems to be Russia is winning: the invasion of Ukraine has been the largest political, military and strategic blunder by a state since the Franco-Prussian war. Maybe greater
Russia has lost on every concievable axis
Russia has lost on every concievable axis
Not a single strategic goal has been met. Russia's losing a Vietnam's worth of soldiers every few months. The economy is sprinting toward stagnation, while Moscow is turning more and more every month into a Chinese vassal—all while the Kremlin's allies topple elsewhere.
Staggering historic failure.
Staggering historic failure.
February 16, 2026 at 11:39 PM
We really do need to underline this for people - because somehow the prevaling myth seems to be Russia is winning: the invasion of Ukraine has been the largest political, military and strategic blunder by a state since the Franco-Prussian war. Maybe greater
Russia has lost on every concievable axis
Russia has lost on every concievable axis
My MAGA mother: chirp chirp! Dow up 5000! Chirp! Best economy ever!
DOGE’D me: Read the room, mom
DOGE’D me: Read the room, mom
It's not even worth arguing basic historical or political economic facts with a US MAGA milieu so enclosed in its own echo tomb that is going to meme the United States into self-destruction
February 16, 2026 at 4:35 PM
My MAGA mother: chirp chirp! Dow up 5000! Chirp! Best economy ever!
DOGE’D me: Read the room, mom
DOGE’D me: Read the room, mom
Reposted by Christy Quirk
“This subtle sleight-of-hand is offensive and threatening to Eastern Europeans […] Rubio’s language about Eastern Europe implies that today, the U.S. wants to reconcile with Russia. Most ominously, it seems to implicitly recognize Russia’s claim to domination over its Eastern European neighbours.”
"Europeans who found comfort in the misdirection perpetrated in Munich that all is well in the transatlantic alliance may find themselves slowly losing not only their reassurance, but also their dignity."
www.policymagazine.ca/marco-rubios...
www.policymagazine.ca/marco-rubios...
Marco Rubio's Munich Speech Should Not Assuage Europe - Policy Magazine
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Valentine's Day speech at the Munich Security Conference should do nothing to mollify a Europe still aghast over Vice
www.policymagazine.ca
February 16, 2026 at 4:06 PM
“This subtle sleight-of-hand is offensive and threatening to Eastern Europeans […] Rubio’s language about Eastern Europe implies that today, the U.S. wants to reconcile with Russia. Most ominously, it seems to implicitly recognize Russia’s claim to domination over its Eastern European neighbours.”
Reposted by Christy Quirk
"if you face things that threaten the stability of your country, I know that President Trump would be very interested" is an interesting thing to read weeks ahead of elections for which Orban is trailing behind badly.
Rubio says Orbán’s leadership is ‘essential’ to US interests ft.trib.al/AFvFw91
Rubio says Orbán’s leadership is ‘essential’ to US interests
US secretary of state hails ‘golden era’ in relations with Hungary
ft.trib.al
February 16, 2026 at 2:01 PM
"if you face things that threaten the stability of your country, I know that President Trump would be very interested" is an interesting thing to read weeks ahead of elections for which Orban is trailing behind badly.
Reposted by Christy Quirk
There are a lot of people out there using polling data to shroud their punditry about politics/electoral strategy in empiricism. I think it’s important to point out that the vast majority of them have never worked as pollsters or for a campaign. They have little domain knowledge
February 15, 2026 at 5:47 PM
There are a lot of people out there using polling data to shroud their punditry about politics/electoral strategy in empiricism. I think it’s important to point out that the vast majority of them have never worked as pollsters or for a campaign. They have little domain knowledge
Reposted by Christy Quirk
Brilliant analysis of an iconic scene from CASABLANCA with too much contemporary relevance. “The Germans are but one small enclave, finding themselves within a community that’s filled with less traditional power but greater numbers and far superior zeal.”
Do I ever *stop thinking about it*? Yes, but never for that long.
seveninchesofyourtime.com/cinemas-grea...
seveninchesofyourtime.com/cinemas-grea...
Cinema’s greatest scene: ‘Casablanca’ and ‘La Marseillaise’
Casablanca is widely remembered as one of the greatest films of all time, coming in at #2 on the AFI’s top 100 list and similarly regarded by many other critics. You can quibble with its exac…
seveninchesofyourtime.com
February 15, 2026 at 2:22 PM
Brilliant analysis of an iconic scene from CASABLANCA with too much contemporary relevance. “The Germans are but one small enclave, finding themselves within a community that’s filled with less traditional power but greater numbers and far superior zeal.”
Reposted by Christy Quirk
it’s a shame that donald trump wasn’t this passionate about checking ids back when he was partying with jeffrey epstein
February 15, 2026 at 8:10 AM
it’s a shame that donald trump wasn’t this passionate about checking ids back when he was partying with jeffrey epstein
Reposted by Christy Quirk
Let me elaborate on what I mean by “afterwards”. Do I think Trump will declare the elections void, somehow keep elected Democrats from being seated? He would if he could, but he doesn’t have enough power to do that.
What he *will* do is treat a Democratic-led Congress as illegitimate.
What he *will* do is treat a Democratic-led Congress as illegitimate.
I will continue to beat this drum: this is not about what happens on Election Day, but afterwards.
The key tell is her articulation of the core MAGA belief that the legitimacy of elections is entirely determined by the results: if they win, it’s legitimate; if they lose, it’s not.
The key tell is her articulation of the core MAGA belief that the legitimacy of elections is entirely determined by the results: if they win, it’s legitimate; if they lose, it’s not.
Kristi Noem: "When it gets to Election Day, we've been proactive to make sure we have the right people voting, electing the right leaders to lead this country."
February 14, 2026 at 11:00 PM
Let me elaborate on what I mean by “afterwards”. Do I think Trump will declare the elections void, somehow keep elected Democrats from being seated? He would if he could, but he doesn’t have enough power to do that.
What he *will* do is treat a Democratic-led Congress as illegitimate.
What he *will* do is treat a Democratic-led Congress as illegitimate.
Reposted by Christy Quirk
Finally some straight talk about the biggest elephant in the room. @slotkin.senate.gov emphasizes: „We‘re in a struggle for our democracy. I‘m very concerned about the 2026 elections.“ References the very concerning comments by Trump and others.
February 14, 2026 at 4:04 PM
Finally some straight talk about the biggest elephant in the room. @slotkin.senate.gov emphasizes: „We‘re in a struggle for our democracy. I‘m very concerned about the 2026 elections.“ References the very concerning comments by Trump and others.
Reposted by Christy Quirk
Democracy is when voters choose their leaders. Autocracy is when leaders choose their voters.
Kristi Noem: "When it gets to Election Day, we've been proactive to make sure we have the right people voting, electing the right leaders to lead this country."
February 14, 2026 at 3:33 PM
Democracy is when voters choose their leaders. Autocracy is when leaders choose their voters.
Reposted by Christy Quirk
Someone for everyone
February 14, 2026 at 3:09 PM
Someone for everyone
Reposted by Christy Quirk
roses are red
violets are great
we need Census data
to properly weight
violets are great
we need Census data
to properly weight
February 14, 2024 at 9:30 PM
roses are red
violets are great
we need Census data
to properly weight
violets are great
we need Census data
to properly weight
Worth reposting
roses are red
violet are magnificent
a change of 1 point's not
statistically significant
violet are magnificent
a change of 1 point's not
statistically significant
February 14, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Worth reposting
Reposted by Christy Quirk
lol. lmao, even
Today a certain pseudo-moderate commentator decided to double down on “politicians shouldn’t waste their time trying to persuade and change public opinion”.
Just noting this because I have cited the trends a lot recently: Tracking data from Civiqs now shows a plurality of the public favors abolishing ICE, with 47% in support and 46% opposed. Independents are net +5 on abolish, up from -40 a year ago substack.com/profile/4791...
February 14, 2026 at 2:14 PM
lol. lmao, even
Reposted by Christy Quirk
The NYT appears to have edited their incorrect paragraphs on public opinion toward Trump’s immigration policies, completely changing the meaning of the paragraph and not offering a note on the piece. Cmon…
There's been a substantial edit, with no correction noted in the article as of now.
February 14, 2026 at 3:13 AM
The NYT appears to have edited their incorrect paragraphs on public opinion toward Trump’s immigration policies, completely changing the meaning of the paragraph and not offering a note on the piece. Cmon…
Reposted by Christy Quirk
It is not merely that one must under no circumstances continue appeasing Putin by keeping Ukraine out of NATO -- now every thinking person should be practically praying for a force like Ukraine to be part of the free world's collective defense.
February 13, 2026 at 11:04 PM
It is not merely that one must under no circumstances continue appeasing Putin by keeping Ukraine out of NATO -- now every thinking person should be practically praying for a force like Ukraine to be part of the free world's collective defense.
Reposted by Christy Quirk
INBOX: Rep. Thomas Massie, who has enraged Trump for his insistence on blocking tariffs and releasing the Epstein files according to the law, just issued what is widely known among Chinese dissidents as "a declaration of no suicidal intent" (不自殺聲明), a sign of extreme distress.
February 13, 2026 at 11:17 PM
INBOX: Rep. Thomas Massie, who has enraged Trump for his insistence on blocking tariffs and releasing the Epstein files according to the law, just issued what is widely known among Chinese dissidents as "a declaration of no suicidal intent" (不自殺聲明), a sign of extreme distress.
Reposted by Christy Quirk
BREAKING: The Project 2025 architect who promised to put federal employees “in trauma” is spending $15 million of former USAID funding—money that would have gone toward fighting HIV, polio, malaria, and other diseases—to bankroll his security detail. trib.al/mRYS7FH
February 13, 2026 at 5:30 PM
BREAKING: The Project 2025 architect who promised to put federal employees “in trauma” is spending $15 million of former USAID funding—money that would have gone toward fighting HIV, polio, malaria, and other diseases—to bankroll his security detail. trib.al/mRYS7FH
Reposted by Christy Quirk
My opinion on this editorially is that if your organization is going to act as the fourth estate/a check on an authoritarian president, it is important to get the data on public opinion correct so you don't end up manufacturing consent for the regime's position. NYT should correct...
February 13, 2026 at 5:59 PM
My opinion on this editorially is that if your organization is going to act as the fourth estate/a check on an authoritarian president, it is important to get the data on public opinion correct so you don't end up manufacturing consent for the regime's position. NYT should correct...
A good explanation of how the Kremlin controls and manipulates its loyal opposition and undermines leaders who might start to build an independent regional power base. ridl.io/the-shrinkin...
The Shrinking Quota for the Systemic Opposition – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (February 9−13)
ridl.io
February 13, 2026 at 6:00 PM
A good explanation of how the Kremlin controls and manipulates its loyal opposition and undermines leaders who might start to build an independent regional power base. ridl.io/the-shrinkin...
This is a great letter from Gallup Nordic, which lays out what’s at stake when trust in statistics and the science of polling is intentionally undermined.
“Educate the public: Be the loudest voice in the room when media outlets present unscientific polls as legitimate population estimates.”
“Educate the public: Be the loudest voice in the room when media outlets present unscientific polls as legitimate population estimates.”
Defending Scientific Integrity: An Open Letter to WAPOR & AAPOR
Is polling science dying? Read the open letter to WAPOR and AAPOR regarding the erosion of scientific integrity, Gallup's decline, and the defense of probability sampling.
gallupnordic.com
February 13, 2026 at 4:44 PM
This is a great letter from Gallup Nordic, which lays out what’s at stake when trust in statistics and the science of polling is intentionally undermined.
“Educate the public: Be the loudest voice in the room when media outlets present unscientific polls as legitimate population estimates.”
“Educate the public: Be the loudest voice in the room when media outlets present unscientific polls as legitimate population estimates.”
Reposted by Christy Quirk
Facebook plans to put facial recognition in its glasses and they think we’re too stupid to fight back.
Their internal memo: “We will launch during a dynamic political environment where many civil society groups that we would expect to attack us would have their resources focused on other concerns.”
Their internal memo: “We will launch during a dynamic political environment where many civil society groups that we would expect to attack us would have their resources focused on other concerns.”
Meta Plans to Add Facial Recognition Technology to Its Smart Glasses
www.nytimes.com
February 13, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Facebook plans to put facial recognition in its glasses and they think we’re too stupid to fight back.
Their internal memo: “We will launch during a dynamic political environment where many civil society groups that we would expect to attack us would have their resources focused on other concerns.”
Their internal memo: “We will launch during a dynamic political environment where many civil society groups that we would expect to attack us would have their resources focused on other concerns.”