@hollyquick.bsky.social
Reposted
It's wild but not surprising that last week the White House was leaning into "these seditious Democrats dared suggest that troops were receiving illegal orders!!!" and this week they are scrambling to figure out who to blame for issuing illegal orders.
December 3, 2025 at 4:00 AM
It's wild but not surprising that last week the White House was leaning into "these seditious Democrats dared suggest that troops were receiving illegal orders!!!" and this week they are scrambling to figure out who to blame for issuing illegal orders.
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✊
Gov. JB Pritzker on Tuesday signed legislation that formally establishes a process for state-level vaccine guidelines and expands pharmacy access to COVID-19 and other shots for young children across Illinois.
Gov. JB Pritzker signs law on Illinois vaccine guidelines amid ongoing tumult with Trump administration
The new law, part of the Illinois governor’s ongoing battle with the Trump administration, expands pharmacy access to COVID-19 and other shots for young children across Illinois, among other …
trib.al
December 3, 2025 at 1:21 AM
✊
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My "Party of Lincoln" Father announced over Thanksgiving that he is ready to abandon the Republican Party altogether.
The normal Republicans are now Democrats & Independents.
The normal Republicans are now Democrats & Independents.
December 3, 2025 at 4:01 AM
My "Party of Lincoln" Father announced over Thanksgiving that he is ready to abandon the Republican Party altogether.
The normal Republicans are now Democrats & Independents.
The normal Republicans are now Democrats & Independents.
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Jain is a fucking asshole and anyone who takes him as a smart good faith operator is a moron.
Everyone has their beats when it comes to politics. For example, I try to tie everything to state legislative elections.
I'm just glad my beat isn't trying to dunk on progressives and promoting an ideology that's rapidly dying because being milquetoast in 2025 is lame as hell
I'm just glad my beat isn't trying to dunk on progressives and promoting an ideology that's rapidly dying because being milquetoast in 2025 is lame as hell
December 3, 2025 at 4:10 AM
Jain is a fucking asshole and anyone who takes him as a smart good faith operator is a moron.
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I guess the good news is, they know it’s indefensible.
Hegseth: "I watched that first strike live. As you can image at the Dept of War, we've got a lot of things to do. So I didn't stick around for the hour to 2 hours, whatever, where all the sensitive sight exploitation digitally occurs. I moved on to my next meeting. A couple hours later I learned..."
December 2, 2025 at 8:46 PM
I guess the good news is, they know it’s indefensible.
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“We’re not going to see those 250 seat margins anymore”—Larry Sabato
Saving this for 11 months from now.
Saving this for 11 months from now.
December 3, 2025 at 4:13 AM
“We’re not going to see those 250 seat margins anymore”—Larry Sabato
Saving this for 11 months from now.
Saving this for 11 months from now.
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I will never get sick of Gavin Newsom trolling Donald Trump.
December 3, 2025 at 3:51 AM
I will never get sick of Gavin Newsom trolling Donald Trump.
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Tonight, we did something everyone counted out. We proved to a nation that states like Tennessee are still worth fighting for. The margin was close, and that can only be attributed to the thousands of volunteers who showed out. This is just the beginning.
December 3, 2025 at 3:46 AM
Tonight, we did something everyone counted out. We proved to a nation that states like Tennessee are still worth fighting for. The margin was close, and that can only be attributed to the thousands of volunteers who showed out. This is just the beginning.
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Kamesha Mumford will be the new senator for Mississippi Senate District 26 after a special election runoff on Tuesday. Though the special election was nonpartisan, she is expected to serve as a Democrat in the Senate.
John Horhn, who is now the mayor of Jackson, had held the seat for 32 years.
John Horhn, who is now the mayor of Jackson, had held the seat for 32 years.
Kamesha Mumford Wins Mississippi Senate District 26 Runoff, Filling Seat John Horhn Vacated
Kamesha Mumford, a municipal court judge, won the Mississippi Senate District 26 special runoff election in Hinds and Madison counties.
www.mississippifreepress.org
December 3, 2025 at 3:23 AM
Kamesha Mumford will be the new senator for Mississippi Senate District 26 after a special election runoff on Tuesday. Though the special election was nonpartisan, she is expected to serve as a Democrat in the Senate.
John Horhn, who is now the mayor of Jackson, had held the seat for 32 years.
John Horhn, who is now the mayor of Jackson, had held the seat for 32 years.
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2006 I managed the campaign for a candidate who in 2004 had lost by 20.
We won by 7.
We won by 7.
As @danahoule.bsky.social can tell you, there's often a silver lining to a loss like this: it helps motivate and organize voters, making the next attempt to flip the seat that much easier.
"Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle," one House Republican said. "Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain." www.politico.com/news/2025/12...
December 3, 2025 at 4:21 AM
2006 I managed the campaign for a candidate who in 2004 had lost by 20.
We won by 7.
We won by 7.
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Looks like TN-07 will end up around R+8, or a 13-point shift toward the Democrats from 2024.
What should worry Rs is that this one is hard to dismiss as a special election. It ended up nationalized, and turnout will be ~95% of 2022. It looked like a midterm general electorate.
What should worry Rs is that this one is hard to dismiss as a special election. It ended up nationalized, and turnout will be ~95% of 2022. It looked like a midterm general electorate.
December 3, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Looks like TN-07 will end up around R+8, or a 13-point shift toward the Democrats from 2024.
What should worry Rs is that this one is hard to dismiss as a special election. It ended up nationalized, and turnout will be ~95% of 2022. It looked like a midterm general electorate.
What should worry Rs is that this one is hard to dismiss as a special election. It ended up nationalized, and turnout will be ~95% of 2022. It looked like a midterm general electorate.
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I'm with you on squeezing Rs to try to get the gavel back. It's harm reduction and the more it looks like the handwriting is on the wall politically, the more dangerous they are.
December 3, 2025 at 4:17 AM
I'm with you on squeezing Rs to try to get the gavel back. It's harm reduction and the more it looks like the handwriting is on the wall politically, the more dangerous they are.
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Pete Hegseth has an affected light vaguely-Southern accent, which for a guy from Minnesota is bullshit.
December 3, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Pete Hegseth has an affected light vaguely-Southern accent, which for a guy from Minnesota is bullshit.
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Release the Epstein Files
December 3, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Release the Epstein Files
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There are people being negative about this? Who TF is that? Is it decent people who just don’t know much? People who are always about how the glass is 1/8 empty? Is it malevolent wreckers?
December 3, 2025 at 3:25 AM
There are people being negative about this? Who TF is that? Is it decent people who just don’t know much? People who are always about how the glass is 1/8 empty? Is it malevolent wreckers?
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What we know, 10:30pm:
—Dems flip mayor's office in Roswell, Georgia.
—GOP defends TN-07. Margin shifts blue by ≈14%.
—Solomon crushes McGreevey to become Jersey City mayor; his progressive slate also dominates city council.
—In Atlanta, establishment ahead in most but not all battles vs. left
—Dems flip mayor's office in Roswell, Georgia.
—GOP defends TN-07. Margin shifts blue by ≈14%.
—Solomon crushes McGreevey to become Jersey City mayor; his progressive slate also dominates city council.
—In Atlanta, establishment ahead in most but not all battles vs. left
December 3, 2025 at 3:26 AM
What we know, 10:30pm:
—Dems flip mayor's office in Roswell, Georgia.
—GOP defends TN-07. Margin shifts blue by ≈14%.
—Solomon crushes McGreevey to become Jersey City mayor; his progressive slate also dominates city council.
—In Atlanta, establishment ahead in most but not all battles vs. left
—Dems flip mayor's office in Roswell, Georgia.
—GOP defends TN-07. Margin shifts blue by ≈14%.
—Solomon crushes McGreevey to become Jersey City mayor; his progressive slate also dominates city council.
—In Atlanta, establishment ahead in most but not all battles vs. left
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I had Williamson at 25,000 and a 20% margin, that was actually pretty close, so I said -5000 and it was minus 6,250 out of 27,000 votes.
Montgomery sadly was a big miss, I said +1,000 and it was -3,450. i did pretty good in Cheatham but the day surge was bad for her.
Montgomery sadly was a big miss, I said +1,000 and it was -3,450. i did pretty good in Cheatham but the day surge was bad for her.
December 3, 2025 at 3:17 AM
I had Williamson at 25,000 and a 20% margin, that was actually pretty close, so I said -5000 and it was minus 6,250 out of 27,000 votes.
Montgomery sadly was a big miss, I said +1,000 and it was -3,450. i did pretty good in Cheatham but the day surge was bad for her.
Montgomery sadly was a big miss, I said +1,000 and it was -3,450. i did pretty good in Cheatham but the day surge was bad for her.
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Dickson and Hickman had much higher turnout than I expected and it was all red. Roughly I missed by 7,000 in the 3 medium suburban/exurban counties. Pretty big miss. missed by 3,000 for the 8 really exurban/rural low pop counties.
December 3, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Dickson and Hickman had much higher turnout than I expected and it was all red. Roughly I missed by 7,000 in the 3 medium suburban/exurban counties. Pretty big miss. missed by 3,000 for the 8 really exurban/rural low pop counties.
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A big problem for me was I had very good info on Davidson and Williamson but very little for Montgomery or the 3 medium pop counties.
Well at least we now know what to look for in 2026. If I were Aftyn I'd rerun the race in 2026 with a competitive TN-5 and some hard rural campaigning before then...
Well at least we now know what to look for in 2026. If I were Aftyn I'd rerun the race in 2026 with a competitive TN-5 and some hard rural campaigning before then...
December 3, 2025 at 3:17 AM
A big problem for me was I had very good info on Davidson and Williamson but very little for Montgomery or the 3 medium pop counties.
Well at least we now know what to look for in 2026. If I were Aftyn I'd rerun the race in 2026 with a competitive TN-5 and some hard rural campaigning before then...
Well at least we now know what to look for in 2026. If I were Aftyn I'd rerun the race in 2026 with a competitive TN-5 and some hard rural campaigning before then...
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There you have it. With Davidson County reporting every precinct now, TN7 turnout is at 179,634, just barely short of the 181,822 turnout in the 2022 general election. I wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds it when all votes are counted.
December 3, 2025 at 3:17 AM
There you have it. With Davidson County reporting every precinct now, TN7 turnout is at 179,634, just barely short of the 181,822 turnout in the 2022 general election. I wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds it when all votes are counted.
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Past special elections with massive swings to Dems could be explained away by GOPs, because turnout was relatively low. Not this one. Republicans should be deeply concerned.
December 3, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Past special elections with massive swings to Dems could be explained away by GOPs, because turnout was relatively low. Not this one. Republicans should be deeply concerned.
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As an R strategist, you'd probably feel better about a 16-point D shift in a special election with 60% of midterm turnout than a 12-point shift with 100% of midterm turnout.
December 3, 2025 at 2:58 AM
As an R strategist, you'd probably feel better about a 16-point D shift in a special election with 60% of midterm turnout than a 12-point shift with 100% of midterm turnout.
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This would be a VERY good time to donate to help Democrats flip the House blue. #JustSaying #Blue26
secure.actblue.com/donate/house...
secure.actblue.com/donate/house...
Chip in!
Show your support with a contribution.
secure.actblue.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:02 AM
This would be a VERY good time to donate to help Democrats flip the House blue. #JustSaying #Blue26
secure.actblue.com/donate/house...
secure.actblue.com/donate/house...
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A reasonable guess is the electorate will look like 2018, the last Democratic wave. Since that would be 8 years ago, I'd trend the demographics forward. If you guess the electorate will look like 2022, the midterm during Biden's administration, the electorate will be too Republican
December 3, 2025 at 3:10 AM
A reasonable guess is the electorate will look like 2018, the last Democratic wave. Since that would be 8 years ago, I'd trend the demographics forward. If you guess the electorate will look like 2022, the midterm during Biden's administration, the electorate will be too Republican
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The average generic ballot for 2026 is D+4, which isn't consistent with the November elections, other recent special elections, or this election which has turnout on par with 2022 fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...
December 3, 2025 at 3:00 AM
The average generic ballot for 2026 is D+4, which isn't consistent with the November elections, other recent special elections, or this election which has turnout on par with 2022 fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...