Jakob Thomae
@jakobthomae.bsky.social
Author - Pocket Guide to Planetary Peril | Co-Founder @Theia Finance Labs | Prof. in Practice SOAS | Research Director @IPR | Columnist @Responsible Investor
I am not sure why we choose to interpolate what the future in 75 years will look like based on a policy reference that ends in 10 years. Especially since the equivalent exercise 10 years ago could not have been more wrong (with projections still at +3.5C
CAT Global Update 2025 🚨 Ten years after the #ParisAgreement we see little to no measurable progress in warming projections - for the fourth consecutive year.
The 2035 #NDCs have made no difference to our warming outlook.
🔗 bit.ly/CAT_Global_2...
The 2035 #NDCs have made no difference to our warming outlook.
🔗 bit.ly/CAT_Global_2...
November 13, 2025 at 1:38 PM
I am not sure why we choose to interpolate what the future in 75 years will look like based on a policy reference that ends in 10 years. Especially since the equivalent exercise 10 years ago could not have been more wrong (with projections still at +3.5C
Its one of the mysteries of climate reporting. This confusion is as old as IEA itself. UNEP production gap report makes the same mistake fwiw. It fundamentally distorts public perception of what to expect, for the worse.
Lot of media outlets stuffing up the distinction between scenarios and "forecasts"/"projections"/"predictions" - but honestly, pretty much every single one of the IEA vs solar charts I've seen presented the IEA's scenarios in exactly this (wrong) way
November 12, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Its one of the mysteries of climate reporting. This confusion is as old as IEA itself. UNEP production gap report makes the same mistake fwiw. It fundamentally distorts public perception of what to expect, for the worse.
Reposted by Jakob Thomae
Reposted by Jakob Thomae
They never seem to think to ask the next question...
Without remembering any knowledge how do you know what question to ask AI? How can you sense check it? What are you "thinking critically" about?
We went through all this already with Google.
Without remembering any knowledge how do you know what question to ask AI? How can you sense check it? What are you "thinking critically" about?
We went through all this already with Google.
Apparently Tyler Cowen is a well-known economist and commentator.
Perhaps he should stick to economics rather than exposing his profound ignorance by saying stuff like 'remembering things and achieving well is irrelevant thanks to AI'.
www.businessinsider.com/ai-reveals-h...
Perhaps he should stick to economics rather than exposing his profound ignorance by saying stuff like 'remembering things and achieving well is irrelevant thanks to AI'.
www.businessinsider.com/ai-reveals-h...
August 2, 2025 at 7:28 AM
They never seem to think to ask the next question...
Without remembering any knowledge how do you know what question to ask AI? How can you sense check it? What are you "thinking critically" about?
We went through all this already with Google.
Without remembering any knowledge how do you know what question to ask AI? How can you sense check it? What are you "thinking critically" about?
We went through all this already with Google.
The issue @ketanjoshi.co raises is at the heart of the footprinting story: we havent decided what they measure. Services provided? Responsibility? Power? Should the emissions from an oil rig go to the company making the screws? If no, how is that different from AWS? Genuine philosophical/ ethical q.
I do not get the people who sort of dismiss this because it includes amazon web services
if amazon provides services of web.............that's stuff the company does and they should be held to account for impacts that has???? what am i missing here
if amazon provides services of web.............that's stuff the company does and they should be held to account for impacts that has???? what am i missing here
May 26, 2025 at 9:07 PM
The issue @ketanjoshi.co raises is at the heart of the footprinting story: we havent decided what they measure. Services provided? Responsibility? Power? Should the emissions from an oil rig go to the company making the screws? If no, how is that different from AWS? Genuine philosophical/ ethical q.
Reposted by Jakob Thomae
According to a Feb. 2025 report from First Street Foundation (firststreet.org/research-lib...), climate migration of over 55 million Americans will occur by 2055: about 15 million from heat, 13 million from wildfires/smoke, 12 million from flood, and 11 million from drought.
May 1, 2025 at 5:10 PM
According to a Feb. 2025 report from First Street Foundation (firststreet.org/research-lib...), climate migration of over 55 million Americans will occur by 2055: about 15 million from heat, 13 million from wildfires/smoke, 12 million from flood, and 11 million from drought.
Reposted by Jakob Thomae
As a result, what is coming, that few want to talk about, is the end of an availability crisis and the beginning of an affordability crisis for homeowners in California. And I'm not talking about underinsurance. I'm talking about just affording enough coverage to keep your mortgage servicer happy.
April 26, 2025 at 5:48 PM
As a result, what is coming, that few want to talk about, is the end of an availability crisis and the beginning of an affordability crisis for homeowners in California. And I'm not talking about underinsurance. I'm talking about just affording enough coverage to keep your mortgage servicer happy.
One of the most curious outcomes of the ‘climate doom’ narrative is that 2.5c is probably at this stage worst case scenario this century but nobody has noticed
April 25, 2025 at 10:07 AM
One of the most curious outcomes of the ‘climate doom’ narrative is that 2.5c is probably at this stage worst case scenario this century but nobody has noticed
Reposted by Jakob Thomae
An excellent piece by Theia Finance Labs CEO @jakobthomae.bsky.social. What will emerge from the chaos? Will the Phoenix be green? theiafinance.org/blogs/what-w...
What will emerge from the current chaos? A long-term investors guide to interpreting the past few weeks and implications for those that are not just trading volatility - Theia Finance
theiafinance.org
April 14, 2025 at 11:50 AM
An excellent piece by Theia Finance Labs CEO @jakobthomae.bsky.social. What will emerge from the chaos? Will the Phoenix be green? theiafinance.org/blogs/what-w...
Challenge. Explain the current crisis in one chart.
April 9, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Challenge. Explain the current crisis in one chart.
Reposted by Jakob Thomae
The scariest chart in the world right now. Who is selling US treasuries?
Via @johnauthers.bsky.social
Via @johnauthers.bsky.social
April 9, 2025 at 7:53 AM
The scariest chart in the world right now. Who is selling US treasuries?
Via @johnauthers.bsky.social
Via @johnauthers.bsky.social
The “Republican Make-up” pod needs a Pt. II please on JD Vance’s eyeliner. Thank you in advance
@inbedwiththeright.bsky.social @adriandaub.bsky.social @moiradonegan.bsky.social
@inbedwiththeright.bsky.social @adriandaub.bsky.social @moiradonegan.bsky.social
April 8, 2025 at 6:45 PM
The “Republican Make-up” pod needs a Pt. II please on JD Vance’s eyeliner. Thank you in advance
@inbedwiththeright.bsky.social @adriandaub.bsky.social @moiradonegan.bsky.social
@inbedwiththeright.bsky.social @adriandaub.bsky.social @moiradonegan.bsky.social
Reposted by Jakob Thomae
The problem is if all trade surplus countries tried to liquidate their net international investment position surplus, it goes up in smoke. Insanely worrying
Has Mr. Market thought through the implication that it's basically impossible to replace the chunk of aggregate demand that the US provides to the global economy? Demand is not well distributed but even if you had radical policy shifts in China and Europe overnight, you can't just offset US demand.
April 7, 2025 at 6:41 PM
The problem is if all trade surplus countries tried to liquidate their net international investment position surplus, it goes up in smoke. Insanely worrying
Within 1 question, AI just turns the formula around. We are sooo far away from this being useful
April 3, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Within 1 question, AI just turns the formula around. We are sooo far away from this being useful
Something happened in the past 20 years where a) entire industries can lose money forever; b) they market this as ‚scaling‘ and c) this is so common that this isn‘t considered newsworthy
I don't think there's a single company that makes a profit from using NVIDIA's AI GPUs other than NVIDIA, not even the data center companies that sell access to them. What are we doing here exactly. You've got to admit that it's a bit weird right?
March 30, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Something happened in the past 20 years where a) entire industries can lose money forever; b) they market this as ‚scaling‘ and c) this is so common that this isn‘t considered newsworthy
Brillant! I can imagine why solar storms weren‘t mentioned but this is what keeps me up at night. All this plus a Carrington event frying every transformer say in the Northeast Corridor would represent an unimaginable calamity
Good morning to everyone, and especially the Bloomberg crew who just did the deep dive on transformers I’ve been waiting 3 years for someone to write.
And you should read every word of it.
🔌💡
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
And you should read every word of it.
🔌💡
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
Heathrow Shutdown Shows How Electrified World Depends on One Device
A shortage of transformers is causing delays to power projects everywhere, holding trillion-dollar industries hostage—and that was before tariffs.
www.bloomberg.com
March 25, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Brillant! I can imagine why solar storms weren‘t mentioned but this is what keeps me up at night. All this plus a Carrington event frying every transformer say in the Northeast Corridor would represent an unimaginable calamity
Reposted by Jakob Thomae
Ich lese gerade viele Berichte über vergangene Hochwasser. Und dass oft Häuser von Betroffenen abgerissen werden mussten, als das Wasser dann weg war. Aber nicht, weil das Wasser selbst die Bausubstanz zerstört hat. Sondern das ausgetretene Öl der Heizung.
March 24, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Ich lese gerade viele Berichte über vergangene Hochwasser. Und dass oft Häuser von Betroffenen abgerissen werden mussten, als das Wasser dann weg war. Aber nicht, weil das Wasser selbst die Bausubstanz zerstört hat. Sondern das ausgetretene Öl der Heizung.
Happy publishing day to me! Sure, my book has a dinosaur on the cover. But then you‘re way more likely to read it than a 500 page book on microbes that sounds interesting but languishes on the shelf. Buy my the book, no regret guarantee :-) www.penguin.co.uk/books/468076...
March 21, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Happy publishing day to me! Sure, my book has a dinosaur on the cover. But then you‘re way more likely to read it than a 500 page book on microbes that sounds interesting but languishes on the shelf. Buy my the book, no regret guarantee :-) www.penguin.co.uk/books/468076...
I really wish somebody could explain to a non-military expert like me which country would attack the UK? Russia couldnt make it to Kiev. China is on the other side of the world.
Interesting article on sparse UK defence:
“Under [NATO treaty] Article 3…NATO members should first and foremost be able to defend themselves…However, when asked whether they felt the UK could defend itself right now, experts and former senior government figures who spoke to PoliticsHome agreed: no”
“Under [NATO treaty] Article 3…NATO members should first and foremost be able to defend themselves…However, when asked whether they felt the UK could defend itself right now, experts and former senior government figures who spoke to PoliticsHome agreed: no”
🚨Multiple former defence ministers tell @politicshome.bsky.social:
-The UK is not currently capable of defending itself from attack
-The importance of self-defence has been neglected
www.politicshome.com/news/article...
-The UK is not currently capable of defending itself from attack
-The importance of self-defence has been neglected
www.politicshome.com/news/article...
March 19, 2025 at 7:08 PM
I really wish somebody could explain to a non-military expert like me which country would attack the UK? Russia couldnt make it to Kiev. China is on the other side of the world.
We will have +90% EV market share in sales by 2035 globally and nobody is ready for it…in what world would a *normal* consumer buy an ICE in 2035? Like buying a horse and cart in 1950
Chinese EV maker BYD says new fast-charging system could be as quick as filling up a tank
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
Chinese EV maker BYD says new fast-charging system could be as quick as filling up a tank
BYD reveals new platform with charging speeds of 1,000 kW, which would be twice as fast as Tesla’s superchargers
www.theguardian.com
March 18, 2025 at 11:29 AM
We will have +90% EV market share in sales by 2035 globally and nobody is ready for it…in what world would a *normal* consumer buy an ICE in 2035? Like buying a horse and cart in 1950
Reposted by Jakob Thomae
Feels like the right day to announce my English-language book is now available for pre-order wherever you get your books. www.waterstones.com/book/the-poc... I had this long post planned about why this book and why you should pre-order it but honestly, just open any news site today….
The Pocket Guide to Planetary Peril by Jakob Thomä | Waterstones
Buy The Pocket Guide to Planetary Peril by Jakob Thomä from Waterstones today! Click and Collect from your local Waterstones or get FREE UK delivery on orders over £25.
www.waterstones.com
January 22, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Feels like the right day to announce my English-language book is now available for pre-order wherever you get your books. www.waterstones.com/book/the-poc... I had this long post planned about why this book and why you should pre-order it but honestly, just open any news site today….
Feels like the right day to announce my English-language book is now available for pre-order wherever you get your books. www.waterstones.com/book/the-poc... I had this long post planned about why this book and why you should pre-order it but honestly, just open any news site today….
The Pocket Guide to Planetary Peril by Jakob Thomä | Waterstones
Buy The Pocket Guide to Planetary Peril by Jakob Thomä from Waterstones today! Click and Collect from your local Waterstones or get FREE UK delivery on orders over £25.
www.waterstones.com
January 22, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Feels like the right day to announce my English-language book is now available for pre-order wherever you get your books. www.waterstones.com/book/the-poc... I had this long post planned about why this book and why you should pre-order it but honestly, just open any news site today….
Haven taken rental cars for +15 years. Today 1st time rental company called to double check whether I was ok driving a certain make => Tesla. This wasn‘t an EV issue. I had requested an EV. This is 100% reputation. Unparalleled toxicity. Teslas future looking bleak
January 16, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Haven taken rental cars for +15 years. Today 1st time rental company called to double check whether I was ok driving a certain make => Tesla. This wasn‘t an EV issue. I had requested an EV. This is 100% reputation. Unparalleled toxicity. Teslas future looking bleak
Reposted by Jakob Thomae
Has the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakened over the last decades? In our new study, we combine state-of-the-art CMIP6 models and observation-based estimates of the air-sea heat flux in the North Atlantic to show that the AMOC has not declined since the 1960s! 🌊
Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s - Nature Communications
The AMOC is crucial for the global ocean overturning circulation and controls the climate around the North Atlantic. Here, the authors use 24 Earth System Models from the CMIP6 to demonstrate tha...
www.nature.com
January 15, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Has the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakened over the last decades? In our new study, we combine state-of-the-art CMIP6 models and observation-based estimates of the air-sea heat flux in the North Atlantic to show that the AMOC has not declined since the 1960s! 🌊