Pau Grau-Vilalta
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paugrau.bsky.social
Pau Grau-Vilalta
@paugrau.bsky.social
370 followers 480 following 10 posts
🛠 PhDing @eui-sps.bsky.social www.paugrau.cat
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Barcelona this week! Today at @politiquesupf.bsky.social (IPA) I’m presenting joint work with Alejandro López Peceño and @eliasdinas.bsky.social on how Civil War refugees mobilized the left in postwar France. Next Thursday @ IBEI JCPOP: career incentives vs. ideology in Fascist Italy’s surveillance.
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Regrettably relevant research today

Disguised Repression: Targeting Opponents with Nonpolitical Crimes to Undermine Dissent
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Colleagues have backed up the point with data and infographics. The answer is no: political violence in the US is if anything declining, not rising. The far right commits more than the far left, but both are rare, and fewer than 10% of Americans endorse violence for political goals.
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🧪 We ran a preregistered endorsement experiment with 4,000+ Spaniards.
We tested whether VOX voters support funding for cultural orgs, including the Francisco Franco Foundation (which glorifies the dictatorship).
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Please share this thread. It is important that political scientists, in Europe and across the world, understand why EPSS exists and why we are encouraging people to attend our inaugural conference, in Belfast next June.
EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026.

😵‍💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA.

👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things.

A short 🧵
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Been a busy year in the data mines.📊 Just published my mid-year roundup: 29 data visualizations on the state of US democracy, tracking everything from judicial resistance to billionaire influence to why Dems have a mobilization crisis, not a moderation problem.

All charts free to use:
On Data and Democracy (Mid-Year Roundup): Charting the Assault on American Democracy and A Path Forward
A narrative of a democracy in the balance, told through 29 data visualizations.
open.substack.com
"This paper finds that Jews are included in “the people” when this is ideologically conducive to the parties, when it can appear to justify Islamophobia and anti-immigration sentiment, and when antisemitism can be used to argue that “the elite” are ignorant and incompetent"
Happy to share my first published article based on my PhD in Party Politics with @journals.sagepub.com in open access!

doi.org/10.1177/1354...
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Currently in FirstView: In “The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Political Science,” @dwlee.bsky.social, @melissazrogers.bsky.social‬, and Hillel David Soifer discuss the MAUP and how the size of spatial units and the location of their borders affect empirical results.
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On the one hand, a complex sense of how race, ethnicity, nationalism, migration, bias, displacement, intermarriage and acculturation forge an identity and, on the other, puzzlement that decades of this history doesn’t fit cleanly in a five-item box.
The Mamdani Columbia story is an example of a microgenre where ethnic communities have had complex internal conversations about identity for generations and white people pratfall into them to go "what the fuck, why are you trying to trick me"
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Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies.

osf.io/preprints/os...

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What shapes repression levels? We argue that bureaucrats' incentives play a major role.

Come to the presentation of the work with Lorenzo Vicari and Andrea Xamo at #EPSA2025 today.

🗓️ Friday 11:20-13:00
📍 Room -1.A.03 | Panel P7-S164
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
This is fantastic. Very excited by this development in European Political Science.

Please come and join us. Get involved. Sign up to the listserv. Etc
🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.

🔗 epssnet.org

Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.

🧵
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El Gobierno catalán anuncia préstamos a jóvenes para pagar la entrada de su primera vivienda (incentivar la demanda). Cuando hicieron una política similar en Reino Unido (help-to-buy):

❌Aumentaron 8% precios.
❌No aumentó la oferta.
❌Los promotores se apropiaron de toda la ayuda.
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Re-upping this, as I've had a few conversations since, and think we're on to something about how the Right coordinates a coalition against the Left.

On Riker, and breaking coalitions by adding cross-cutting issues, I recommend The Art of Political Manipulation: yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
We have been discussing amongst ourselves how AJPS should handle the issue of artificial intelligence (AI) in the creation and review of journal submissions. These are important issues we feel we must address. Read the AJPS AI Policy for authors and reviewers here: ajps.org/2025/06/17/a...
AJPS AI Policy
We have been discussing amongst ourselves how AJPS should handle the issue of artificial intelligence (AI) in the creation and review of journal submissions. These are important issues we feel we m…
ajps.org
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Based on crowd-sourced records of No Kings Day event turnout, and extrapolating for the cities where we don't have data yet, it looks like roughly 4-6 million people protested Trump across the U.S. yesterday. That's nearly 2% of the U.S. pop!

Mobilized anti-Trump resistance is exceeding 2017 levels
"No Kings Day" protests turn out millions
Our unofficial estimate is that around 4 million people attended a protest event yesterday. Anti-Trump resistance is outpacing 2017.
www.gelliottmorris.com
Indeed! The mean was taking other variables, now should be correct. Other than the north-south divide, no clear pattern emerges:
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta
Thanks guys!

This data shows what we conjectured in the late afternoon of June 9 - it was always gonna be a hard fight to get to the 50%+1, but the citizenship in particular made for a super hard fight.

A note: parties’ positions were *a bit* split, so party cues may have mattered indeed.

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Together with @paugrau.bsky.social, we have just posted our first Substack, which is our quick take on the outcome of the labour rights and citizenship referendums in Italy on 8-9 June
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open.substack.com/pub/simonhix...
Divide and Lose
One Reason Why Italy’s Progressives Lost the June 2025 Referendums
open.substack.com
First substack with @simonhix.bsky.social — was it a good idea to join labour and citizenship questions in the same referendum? Illustrated with scatterplots and (arguably) aesthetic maps!
Together with @paugrau.bsky.social, we have just posted our first Substack, which is our quick take on the outcome of the labour rights and citizenship referendums in Italy on 8-9 June
1/
open.substack.com/pub/simonhix...
Divide and Lose
One Reason Why Italy’s Progressives Lost the June 2025 Referendums
open.substack.com
Reposted by Pau Grau-Vilalta