Raphael Cunha
@raphaelcunha.bsky.social
Political scientist at King's College London @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social @kingsqpe.bsky.social, international political economy, politics of money & finance, https://raphaelcunha.info
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 PM
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
November 25, 2025 at 8:38 AM
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
New paper: Triply Robust Panel Estimators (TROP) by @susanathey.bsky.social @guidoimbens.bsky.social Zhaonan Qu @vivianodavide.bsky.social.
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
November 23, 2025 at 10:39 PM
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
This is a wonderful book! So happy to see this out! Congrats @mduque.bsky.social
Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen?
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
The Making of International Status
Abstract. With great power rivalry on the rise again, many worry that struggles for status among states could lead to war. As a growing consensus indicates
academic.oup.com
November 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM
This is a wonderful book! So happy to see this out! Congrats @mduque.bsky.social
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen?
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
The Making of International Status
Abstract. With great power rivalry on the rise again, many worry that struggles for status among states could lead to war. As a growing consensus indicates
academic.oup.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen?
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Is this what hell is like?
AI-powered nimbyism could grind UK planning system to a halt, experts warn
Tools that help people scan applications and find grounds for objection have potential to hit government’s housebuilding plans
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Is this what hell is like?
Is this what hell is like?
AI-powered nimbyism could grind UK planning system to a halt, experts warn
Tools that help people scan applications and find grounds for objection have potential to hit government’s housebuilding plans
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Is this what hell is like?
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
📣Call for papers now open for our annual Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration. Rome🔥, May 28-29, 2026.
More details below👇
More details below👇
CfP🗣️: 7th edition of the Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration. 28-29 May 2026, in Rome!
Organised by CEPR/King's College/EBRD/Sapienza
Keynotes are Paolo Pinotti (Bocconi) and Vicky Fouka (Stanford).
Submit your papers: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Deadline 23 Jan.
🤓🔥🍕🍝🍷
Organised by CEPR/King's College/EBRD/Sapienza
Keynotes are Paolo Pinotti (Bocconi) and Vicky Fouka (Stanford).
Submit your papers: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Deadline 23 Jan.
🤓🔥🍕🍝🍷
November 12, 2025 at 11:20 AM
📣Call for papers now open for our annual Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration. Rome🔥, May 28-29, 2026.
More details below👇
More details below👇
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
A win for economics (who predicted this), a loss for Britain
New @nberpubs: "The Economic Impact of Brexit" www.nber.org/papers/w34459
"by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time." 😲
"by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time." 😲
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
A win for economics (who predicted this), a loss for Britain
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Sandra Sequeira (LSE) on "Financial Security, Climate Shocks, and Social Cohesion".
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
🔥 Excited to share our 2025/26 QPE Seminar lineup!
Externals welcome. Please get in touch at [email protected] or [email protected].
📅 Full schedule 👇
Externals welcome. Please get in touch at [email protected] or [email protected].
📅 Full schedule 👇
November 10, 2025 at 10:01 AM
This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Sandra Sequeira (LSE) on "Financial Security, Climate Shocks, and Social Cohesion".
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Do you teach #rstats? Do your students complain about how lame and old-fashioned dplyr is? Don't worry: I have the solution for you: github.com/hadley/genzp....
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
GitHub - hadley/genzplyr: dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap
dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap. Contribute to hadley/genzplyr development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Do you teach #rstats? Do your students complain about how lame and old-fashioned dplyr is? Don't worry: I have the solution for you: github.com/hadley/genzp....
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
An Imbens retrospective on experimental v. non-experimental methods — looks like a must-read www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Comparing Experimental and Nonexperimental Methods: What Lessons Have We Learned Four Decades after LaLonde (1986)?
(Fall 2025) - In 1986, Robert LaLonde published an article comparing nonexperimental estimates to experimental benchmarks (LaLonde 1986). He concluded that the nonexperimental methods at the time coul...
www.aeaweb.org
November 6, 2025 at 4:47 PM
An Imbens retrospective on experimental v. non-experimental methods — looks like a must-read www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Please share!: Last week to apply for @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
EPSS 2026 submissions FAQ - EPSS
Submissions are coming in fast for Belfast 2026 and so are your questions about submissions. Here are answers to the most common questions: Where do I go to submit? For panel submission: https://app.oxfordabstracts.com/events/75765/symposia/create For paper submission: https://app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/79266/submissions/new? How many papers can I submit? We put a constraint of max one presentation per person. This does …
epssnet.org
November 3, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Please share!: Last week to apply for @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting
⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
October 31, 2025 at 2:00 PM
🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
I just ordered @vincentab.bsky.social 's epic new book Model to Meaning.
This project is one of the most exciting recent developments in data science. The book & #rstats / #python package show how to understand your model *within* its real-world context/use case.
www.routledge.com/Model-to-Mea...
This project is one of the most exciting recent developments in data science. The book & #rstats / #python package show how to understand your model *within* its real-world context/use case.
www.routledge.com/Model-to-Mea...
Model to Meaning: How to Interpret Statistical Models with R and Python
Our world is complex. To make sense of it, data analysts routinely fit sophisticated statistical or machine learning models. Interpreting the results produced by such models can be challenging, and re...
www.routledge.com
October 31, 2025 at 1:19 PM
I just ordered @vincentab.bsky.social 's epic new book Model to Meaning.
This project is one of the most exciting recent developments in data science. The book & #rstats / #python package show how to understand your model *within* its real-world context/use case.
www.routledge.com/Model-to-Mea...
This project is one of the most exciting recent developments in data science. The book & #rstats / #python package show how to understand your model *within* its real-world context/use case.
www.routledge.com/Model-to-Mea...
Absolutely beautiful performance.
Céu : Tiny Desk Brasil
YouTube video by Tiny Desk Brasil
www.youtube.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Absolutely beautiful performance.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
Prosecuting the Powerful
Historical data shows putting leaders on trial is a healthy democratic practice.
foreignpolicy.com
October 28, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
If people in government want my longer thoughts on why arbitrarily extending the time to ILR for people who are already here is bad (let alone the mass deportation policies of their rivals), and a sense of what I think a sustainable policy might be, then see:
benansell.substack.com/p/select-and...
benansell.substack.com/p/select-and...
October 28, 2025 at 11:14 AM
If people in government want my longer thoughts on why arbitrarily extending the time to ILR for people who are already here is bad (let alone the mass deportation policies of their rivals), and a sense of what I think a sustainable policy might be, then see:
benansell.substack.com/p/select-and...
benansell.substack.com/p/select-and...
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
New paper: LLMs are increasingly used to label data in political science. But how reliable are these annotations, and what are the consequences for scientific findings? What are best practices? Some new findings from a large empirical evaluation.
Paper: eddieyang.net/research/llm_annotation.pdf
Paper: eddieyang.net/research/llm_annotation.pdf
October 20, 2025 at 1:57 PM
New paper: LLMs are increasingly used to label data in political science. But how reliable are these annotations, and what are the consequences for scientific findings? What are best practices? Some new findings from a large empirical evaluation.
Paper: eddieyang.net/research/llm_annotation.pdf
Paper: eddieyang.net/research/llm_annotation.pdf
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
BTW let's appreciate the sheer bathetic comedy of Trump's threats sliding from WE'RE GOING TO BAN ALL CRITICAL SOFTWARE WE WILL BRING YOUR ECONOMY TO A HALT down to WE'LL MAKE OUR OWN COOKING OIL SEE IF WE DON'T.
Don't look now but Trump just freaked out the market again by continuing to escalate the trade war.
October 14, 2025 at 9:11 PM
BTW let's appreciate the sheer bathetic comedy of Trump's threats sliding from WE'RE GOING TO BAN ALL CRITICAL SOFTWARE WE WILL BRING YOUR ECONOMY TO A HALT down to WE'LL MAKE OUR OWN COOKING OIL SEE IF WE DON'T.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Massimo Morelli (Bocconi) on "The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe"
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
🔥 Excited to share our 2025/26 QPE Seminar lineup!
Externals welcome. Please get in touch at [email protected] or [email protected].
📅 Full schedule 👇
Externals welcome. Please get in touch at [email protected] or [email protected].
📅 Full schedule 👇
October 13, 2025 at 11:11 AM
This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Massimo Morelli (Bocconi) on "The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe"
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Highly recommend @nikhil-kalyanpur.bsky.social's substack The Price of Power for anyone interested in money and politics and what the latest social science research has to say about it.
The Price of Power | Nikhil Kalyanpur | Substack
Analysis at the intersection of money, corruption, and geopolitics based on the latest social science research. Click to read The Price of Power, by Nikhil Kalyanpur, a Substack publication.
thepriceofpower.substack.com
October 8, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Highly recommend @nikhil-kalyanpur.bsky.social's substack The Price of Power for anyone interested in money and politics and what the latest social science research has to say about it.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
📢 Call for Papers!
We’re inviting submissions for the @politicalnetworks.bsky.social Online Colloquium (2025–26) (w/ @mtp.bsky.social)
🔹 Monthly, 1-hr sessions
🔹 Read-ahead format (no presentations)
🔹 Open to scholars in poli sci & related fields
🔹 Deadline: 17 Oct 2025
Learn more & submit here 👇
We’re inviting submissions for the @politicalnetworks.bsky.social Online Colloquium (2025–26) (w/ @mtp.bsky.social)
🔹 Monthly, 1-hr sessions
🔹 Read-ahead format (no presentations)
🔹 Open to scholars in poli sci & related fields
🔹 Deadline: 17 Oct 2025
Learn more & submit here 👇
PolNet-PaCSS - Political Networks Online Colloquium
The Political Networks Online Colloquium aims to bring together a community of scholars to provide feedback on ongoing research about political networks. Each month we will meet for one hour to discus...
sites.google.com
October 3, 2025 at 2:30 PM
📢 Call for Papers!
We’re inviting submissions for the @politicalnetworks.bsky.social Online Colloquium (2025–26) (w/ @mtp.bsky.social)
🔹 Monthly, 1-hr sessions
🔹 Read-ahead format (no presentations)
🔹 Open to scholars in poli sci & related fields
🔹 Deadline: 17 Oct 2025
Learn more & submit here 👇
We’re inviting submissions for the @politicalnetworks.bsky.social Online Colloquium (2025–26) (w/ @mtp.bsky.social)
🔹 Monthly, 1-hr sessions
🔹 Read-ahead format (no presentations)
🔹 Open to scholars in poli sci & related fields
🔹 Deadline: 17 Oct 2025
Learn more & submit here 👇
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Kicking off this year's seminar series with Lucy Barnes (@lucy-barnes.bsky.social) on "Economic Orientations and Preferences Over Redistributive Taxation."
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
🔥 Excited to share our 2025/26 QPE Seminar lineup!
Externals welcome. Please get in touch at [email protected] or [email protected].
📅 Full schedule 👇
Externals welcome. Please get in touch at [email protected] or [email protected].
📅 Full schedule 👇
September 29, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Kicking off this year's seminar series with Lucy Barnes (@lucy-barnes.bsky.social) on "Economic Orientations and Preferences Over Redistributive Taxation."
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Just out in the NBER.....identification of a structural model of human capital skill formation amongst adolescents using a field experiment.
www.nber.org/papers/w34274
www.nber.org/papers/w34274
Why Don’t Struggling Students Do Their Homework? Disentangling Motivation and Study Productivity as Drivers of Human Capital Formation
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
September 26, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Just out in the NBER.....identification of a structural model of human capital skill formation amongst adolescents using a field experiment.
www.nber.org/papers/w34274
www.nber.org/papers/w34274