Thomas Hughes
@thomashughes.bsky.social
Assistant Prof Mount Allison Uni and Dep Director Centre for Defence and Security Studies Uni of Manitoba. Arctic and N. Am Defence, NATO and European Security. And fly fishing with a dose of NUFC.
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
I may be overdoing it with the optimism, but I think it’s good to have if black on white. Makes it easier for (or forces) European politicians to adjust.
Also, the policy spelled out in the strategy to interfere in European affairs for the benefit of the far right hopefully backfires.
Also, the policy spelled out in the strategy to interfere in European affairs for the benefit of the far right hopefully backfires.
The headline, the main takeaway from a European viewpoint is this:
The transatlantic relationship as we know it is over. Yes, we kinda knew this. But this is now official US White House policy. Not a sppech, not a statement. The West as it used to be no longer exists.
The transatlantic relationship as we know it is over. Yes, we kinda knew this. But this is now official US White House policy. Not a sppech, not a statement. The West as it used to be no longer exists.
December 5, 2025 at 10:14 AM
I may be overdoing it with the optimism, but I think it’s good to have if black on white. Makes it easier for (or forces) European politicians to adjust.
Also, the policy spelled out in the strategy to interfere in European affairs for the benefit of the far right hopefully backfires.
Also, the policy spelled out in the strategy to interfere in European affairs for the benefit of the far right hopefully backfires.
There are already, and no doubt will be more, interesting (for better or worse) takes on the US Nat Sec Strategy. This is a great one to start with.
A few thoughts on the new US national security strategy that was released today.
🧵
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
🧵
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 1:48 PM
There are already, and no doubt will be more, interesting (for better or worse) takes on the US Nat Sec Strategy. This is a great one to start with.
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
A really cool project that brings together experts from 16 countries making up the Coalition of the Willing. They assess the political resolve and military capacity to send forces—by land, sea, or air—to secure Ukraine’s future. The country briefs are posted here. www.nupi.no/en/projects-...
Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine Tracker | NUPI
This project surveys the political willingness of allies to deploy troops—on the ground, in the air, or at sea—to establish a military presence in or around Ukraine.
www.nupi.no
December 2, 2025 at 2:28 PM
A really cool project that brings together experts from 16 countries making up the Coalition of the Willing. They assess the political resolve and military capacity to send forces—by land, sea, or air—to secure Ukraine’s future. The country briefs are posted here. www.nupi.no/en/projects-...
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
"Canada has reached a final agreement to join the EU’s €150 billion Security Action for Europe program, two EU diplomats told POLITICO, marking the first time a third country will formally participate in the bloc’s flagship joint procurement initiative." www.politico.eu/article/cana...
Canada clinches deal to join Europe’s €150B defense scheme
The deal concludes months of tough talks and will allow Ottawa to take part in procurements financed by the EU’s SAFE program.
www.politico.eu
December 1, 2025 at 3:25 PM
"Canada has reached a final agreement to join the EU’s €150 billion Security Action for Europe program, two EU diplomats told POLITICO, marking the first time a third country will formally participate in the bloc’s flagship joint procurement initiative." www.politico.eu/article/cana...
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that a Russian victory is not inevitable. The actual pace of the occupying forces’ advance shows that a rapid capture of the entire Donetsk region is unlikely, despite the Kremlin’s claims.
understandingwar.org/research/rus...
understandingwar.org/research/rus...
November 27, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that a Russian victory is not inevitable. The actual pace of the occupying forces’ advance shows that a rapid capture of the entire Donetsk region is unlikely, despite the Kremlin’s claims.
understandingwar.org/research/rus...
understandingwar.org/research/rus...
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
This won't happen but it would be incredibly funny if the Canadian part of NORAD refused to work on the yearly Santa tracker thing by citing intelligence sharing risks
November 26, 2025 at 3:54 AM
This won't happen but it would be incredibly funny if the Canadian part of NORAD refused to work on the yearly Santa tracker thing by citing intelligence sharing risks
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
This latest iteration of the ”peace plan” for Ukraine reeks of a Russian info op - and as such it’s quite successful, even if the plan itself is not serious or implementable.
This and an update on military (im)mobility in the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social
This and an update on military (im)mobility in the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social
On "Peace Plans" and Military (Im)Mobility in Europe
In this week’s Europe Dispatch, Minna Ålander discusses persisting lack of military mobility in Europe and likely yet another nothingburger, served by Trump.
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 12:15 PM
This latest iteration of the ”peace plan” for Ukraine reeks of a Russian info op - and as such it’s quite successful, even if the plan itself is not serious or implementable.
This and an update on military (im)mobility in the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social
This and an update on military (im)mobility in the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
It looks like Ukraine will reach the moment it has been fearing but also probably preparing for: the end of US support.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
This is not a peace deal and it’s not asking anything of the Russians. It’s just the US on behalf of the Russians pressuring Ukraine to surrender www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
U.S. pushing Ukraine to sign peace deal by Thanksgiving or lose support
The U.S. is now sending “signals” that everything could be off the table if Kyiv does not quickly sign a proposal, which was drawn up by special envoy Witkoff.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:16 PM
It looks like Ukraine will reach the moment it has been fearing but also probably preparing for: the end of US support.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
When a Swedish minister gets this sassy, it means that they’re furious.
And rightly so. It’s amazing that the small ones have punched so far above their weight, but inexcusable that the bigger ones haven’t followed suit. There simply are capacity limits for the small ones.
And rightly so. It’s amazing that the small ones have punched so far above their weight, but inexcusable that the bigger ones haven’t followed suit. There simply are capacity limits for the small ones.
Nordic countries paying most for Ukraine ‘not sustainable,’ Swedish foreign minister says
The EU must seize Russia’s frozen assets, Maria Malmer Stenergard believes, because any other solution would be unfair to Ukraine’s biggest backers.
www.politico.eu
November 21, 2025 at 8:15 PM
When a Swedish minister gets this sassy, it means that they’re furious.
And rightly so. It’s amazing that the small ones have punched so far above their weight, but inexcusable that the bigger ones haven’t followed suit. There simply are capacity limits for the small ones.
And rightly so. It’s amazing that the small ones have punched so far above their weight, but inexcusable that the bigger ones haven’t followed suit. There simply are capacity limits for the small ones.
Outstanding (albeit deeply dispiriting) thread.
Some notable things in what's being called the "Trump peace plan" but which could not have been more clearly written in Moscow if it came with a 2 for 1 deal on tickets to the Bolshoi Ballet. 🧵
November 21, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Outstanding (albeit deeply dispiriting) thread.
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
The plan says that "A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States." This implies that both Russia and the Trump administration don't see the US as part of NATO in any real sense. That should deeply alarm every other NATO state.
November 21, 2025 at 10:06 AM
The plan says that "A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States." This implies that both Russia and the Trump administration don't see the US as part of NATO in any real sense. That should deeply alarm every other NATO state.
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
My International Theory article on non-aggression pacts is finally indexed. Available open-access, I show that the literature to date has coded various international agreements erroneously as non-aggression pacts and missed the unique historical context in which they first emerged.
bit.ly/4o8k94W
bit.ly/4o8k94W
November 20, 2025 at 3:24 PM
My International Theory article on non-aggression pacts is finally indexed. Available open-access, I show that the literature to date has coded various international agreements erroneously as non-aggression pacts and missed the unique historical context in which they first emerged.
bit.ly/4o8k94W
bit.ly/4o8k94W
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
“To the historically oriented, the fight for the minds of decision-makers and noncombatants does not expand the battlespace, but it does expand or at least challenge long-held Western conceptions about war.” A superb review of cognitive warfare from Frank Hoffman
smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/14/a...
smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/14/a...
Assessing "Cognitive Warfare" | Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University
Explore the evolving concept of cognitive warfare, its impact on global security, and how China and Russia are reshaping the cognitive domain of conflict.
smallwarsjournal.com
November 14, 2025 at 10:20 PM
“To the historically oriented, the fight for the minds of decision-makers and noncombatants does not expand the battlespace, but it does expand or at least challenge long-held Western conceptions about war.” A superb review of cognitive warfare from Frank Hoffman
smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/14/a...
smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/14/a...
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
I'm delighted to be alongside an impressive group of experts, brought together by @congeostrategy.bsky.social, weighing on this question. I write that the term 'cold war' suggests that we are taking Russia and China seriously enough when arguably we are not. www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...
Are we in a new cold war?
The Big Ask | No. 46.2025
www.britainsworld.org.uk
November 14, 2025 at 2:28 PM
I'm delighted to be alongside an impressive group of experts, brought together by @congeostrategy.bsky.social, weighing on this question. I write that the term 'cold war' suggests that we are taking Russia and China seriously enough when arguably we are not. www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
"NATO’s new Alliance Maritime Strategy ... re-centers maritime hard power within collective defense, integrates digital transformation and industrial strength, and reframes the oceans as the decisive arena of strategic competition." www.fpri.org/article/2025...
Collective Seapower: NATO’s New Maritime Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute
NATO has finally unveiled its new Alliance Maritime Strategy, refreshing a document that had not been publicly updated since 2011. While high-level strategy
www.fpri.org
November 10, 2025 at 9:15 PM
"NATO’s new Alliance Maritime Strategy ... re-centers maritime hard power within collective defense, integrates digital transformation and industrial strength, and reframes the oceans as the decisive arena of strategic competition." www.fpri.org/article/2025...
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
Yeah so several major Ukrainian cities are in a complete blackout right now. 0 generation from thermal plants and 0 idea when the power will be back. Just please don’t forget us
November 8, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Yeah so several major Ukrainian cities are in a complete blackout right now. 0 generation from thermal plants and 0 idea when the power will be back. Just please don’t forget us
Yet another example, if any more were needed, of AI getting the simplest things horrendously wrong, and being devastatingly London-centric. Or, in other words, bearing the hallmarks of almost every British government of the last 70 years.
November 8, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Yet another example, if any more were needed, of AI getting the simplest things horrendously wrong, and being devastatingly London-centric. Or, in other words, bearing the hallmarks of almost every British government of the last 70 years.
I was going to say something snide about this meaning that the US would now sit on the sidelines for the next two years equivocating over one of the simplest moral decisions in the history of international relations. But given the approach to Ukraine it feels a bit too on the nose
November 7, 2025 at 11:35 PM
I was going to say something snide about this meaning that the US would now sit on the sidelines for the next two years equivocating over one of the simplest moral decisions in the history of international relations. But given the approach to Ukraine it feels a bit too on the nose
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
British military planners have travelled to Bodø in the Arctic Circle, to rehearse what it would look like if Russia decided to unleash hostile activity on its doorstep.
www.politico.eu/article/brit...
www.politico.eu/article/brit...
Deep inside a mountain, Britain prepares for Russian onslaught
British military planners travelled to Bodø, nestled between the sea and snow-capped peaks of the Arctic Circle, to war-game out the response to Russian threats.
www.politico.eu
November 7, 2025 at 9:43 AM
British military planners have travelled to Bodø in the Arctic Circle, to rehearse what it would look like if Russia decided to unleash hostile activity on its doorstep.
www.politico.eu/article/brit...
www.politico.eu/article/brit...
THIS! No fireworks for me this year, but thoroughly looking forward to semi-raw sausages and half-baked potatoes ‘cooked’ on the fire!
On a lighter note, it is Guy Fawkes day in the UK. Every year, I delight in the faces of people who’ve never heard of it, having it explained for the first time
“Sorry an effigy? That you burn? Of Catholics from the 1600s? And everyone turns up to watch it?”
“Sorry an effigy? That you burn? Of Catholics from the 1600s? And everyone turns up to watch it?”
November 5, 2025 at 5:09 PM
THIS! No fireworks for me this year, but thoroughly looking forward to semi-raw sausages and half-baked potatoes ‘cooked’ on the fire!
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
Russia ends seasonal draft model, moves to year-round conscription from 2026 kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-...
Russia ends seasonal draft model, moves to year-round conscription from 2026
While Russian conscripts are officially barred from being deployed abroad, reports indicate that many are pressured into signing contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry and sent to fight in Ukraine.
kyivindependent.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Russia ends seasonal draft model, moves to year-round conscription from 2026 kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-...
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
In my latest opinion piece for the @thebarentsobserver.com, I ask why we believe that a country not capable of producing a decent microchip on its own can make nuclear-powered weapons systems without triggering major accidents.
The Arctic has again become Moscow’s nuclear bluster playground
History is repeating itself.
www.thebarentsobserver.com
November 3, 2025 at 6:39 PM
In my latest opinion piece for the @thebarentsobserver.com, I ask why we believe that a country not capable of producing a decent microchip on its own can make nuclear-powered weapons systems without triggering major accidents.
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
OPINION: For Vladimir Putin and his ex-KGB cohort, threatening with the new reactor-powered, nuclear-capable weapons systems brings Soviet nostalgia back onto the table. A look into history can help elucidating today's escalating Russian nuclear brinksmanship.
The Arctic has again become Moscow’s nuclear bluster playground
History is repeating itself.
www.thebarentsobserver.com
November 2, 2025 at 3:27 PM
OPINION: For Vladimir Putin and his ex-KGB cohort, threatening with the new reactor-powered, nuclear-capable weapons systems brings Soviet nostalgia back onto the table. A look into history can help elucidating today's escalating Russian nuclear brinksmanship.
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
🇬🇱🇩🇰 Following Donald Trump's statements about his intention to annex Greenland, Denmark has begun strengthening the defenses of the island, which is now seen as a vulnerable target in the face of Russia's growing military activity in the Arctic, - Bloomberg
November 1, 2025 at 8:01 AM
🇬🇱🇩🇰 Following Donald Trump's statements about his intention to annex Greenland, Denmark has begun strengthening the defenses of the island, which is now seen as a vulnerable target in the face of Russia's growing military activity in the Arctic, - Bloomberg
Reposted by Thomas Hughes
Your regularly scheduled reminder of one of the pioneering groups of what is now called operations research was a group of teen and twenty something women led by a gamer too ill for sea duty trying to do their part to defend their island home.
This here is one of the great U-boat hunters of the Second World War.
Grab a comfy seat and a glass of something pleasing. We're going on a journey...
Grab a comfy seat and a glass of something pleasing. We're going on a journey...
November 1, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Your regularly scheduled reminder of one of the pioneering groups of what is now called operations research was a group of teen and twenty something women led by a gamer too ill for sea duty trying to do their part to defend their island home.