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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

@paulgp.com

17K followers 1.5K following 3.1K posts

Yale SOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. He/him/his

Economics 47%

Mathematics 9%

more

Posts Replies Media Videos

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

So glad I'm not an admin now

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

When people see high PE ratios, they apparently predict higher stock returns -- new NBER WP using experimental info treatments #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/system/files...

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

Any algorithmic decision-making has both a prediction/inference AND a preference function over errors -- new NBER wp highlights how preference alignment can be too narrow within a given setting #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/system/files...

Reposted by Simon Hix, Ben H. Ansell, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham , and 3 more Simon Hix, Ben H. Ansell, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Brian Weatherson, Michael Larkin, David Darmofal

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

People on BlueSky: AI is useless! A stochastic parrot!

Mathematicians/biologists/physicists: It is already helping us do frontier technical research and in some cases solve open problems arxiv.org/pdf/2511.16072

(There are of course, as always, many caveats, but the paper is genuinely remarkable)

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Florian Keusch

Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 1d

About to kick off a peer review workshop with our brilliant @sriucl.bsky.social PhD students right now. Thanks to my colleague Alina Pelikh for hosting and I wish something like this was available when I started out.

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Alex Gude @alexgude.com · 1d

Seventy years ago Walter M Miller Jr wrote how creative work would be the first thing we automate. The Darfsteller follows an actor replaced by robots, which are both cheaper and preferred by the audience.

It's more relevant than ever in the age of Gen AI.

alexgude.com/books/the_da...

#BookReview

The Darfsteller

The Darfsteller, by Walter M. Miller Jr., is a Hugo Award-winning novelette about the obsolescence of the human artist. It follows Ryan Thornier, a former stage idol reduced to working as a janitor in...

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Kristina McElheran

Tifa | Sacred Ho🧘🏾‍♀️ @chicmojo.blacksky.app · 1d

These French babies arguing 🤣

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

I think probably 60/40. But they feed off each other — the 50 minutes of working out are much more efficient, which makes me more likely to go, and so on

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Josh Gottlieb @gottliebecon.bsky.social · 2d

Don’t let the macro environment stop anyone from looking closely at my student Joe Battles on the market this year. x.com/GottliebEcon...

Thank you for the shoutout and the data, Paul.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

💯

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

🤷‍♂️procrastination!

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

Could you describe your counterfactual experiment to me please?

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

European Econ Job market appears to pull from EJM, which has this:

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

I found this buried deep: econjobmarket.org/marketState/...

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

No, there's just no good way to pull that data easily. I'd love to see it.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

Yeah I agree with this -- I think there are other measurement issues going on simultaneously. Clear platform fragmentation

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

US job defined as "UNITED STATES" in the location field.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

Hard to read, here's with all and then just 2015, 2020, 2034, 2024 and 2025

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Yeah, I thought that might be it, although I don't see how I would get that from the data.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

I’m not sure how Cawley has so many more posts than I do. My numbers come from just the raw counts exported on the AEA JOE website. All of the trends seem very similar, but he has far larger numbers.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

This is in line with @johncawley.bsky.social recent post: bsky.app/profile/john...

John Cawley @johncawley.bsky.social · 21d

New data on the #EconJobMarket as of Nov 2. Based on total # of job listings on JOE, this year continues to be even weaker (by 11%) than during COVID (2020). 1/many #EconSky

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Looks like we're in the worst year in since 2015.

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Ryan Enos, Scott A. Imberman , and 2 more Richard S.J. Tol, Ryan Enos, Scott A. Imberman, Todd Pugatch, Peter Bergman

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Update on the state of the job market courtesy of a nudge by @gottliebecon.bsky.social

It's bad!

paulgp.com/2025/11/24/j...

Economics Job Market Update: November 2025 - A Historic Low

Reposted by Norbert Schwarz, Philip N. Cohen, Jacob Montgomery , and 7 more Norbert Schwarz, Philip N. Cohen, Jacob Montgomery, David R. Miller, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Michael D. McDonald, Dana R. Fisher, Josh Pasek, Manisha Sinha, David Darmofal

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 3d

My @nytimes.com op-ed: The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o... (gift link)

The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."

Opinion | The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z?

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Michael A. Clemens, Valerie Mueller, Aaron Sojourner , and 4 more Michael A. Clemens, Valerie Mueller, Aaron Sojourner, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul Nightingale, David L. Anderson, Ezra Golberstein

Susan Athey @susanathey.bsky.social · 3d

ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.

Golub Capital Social Impact Lab @gsbsilab.bsky.social · Oct 20

New paper: Triply Robust Panel Estimators (TROP) by @susanathey.bsky.social @guidoimbens.bsky.social Zhaonan Qu @vivianodavide.bsky.social.
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 4d

Results are in, Millenials are just less lonely than others

Chris Ferguson @cjferguson1111.bsky.social · 5d

New chart from Mike Males using MTF and Pew Research data finds that trends in teen social media and smartphone use are unrelated to teen loneliness (which hasn't changed much over the years anyway aside from an unexplained dip in the 2000s).

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 4d

Explainer thread when

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 4d

Karl gotta get some long pca posts on bluesky!!

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 4d

Preventative once you had twins, makes sense

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 4d

Same