Jacob Montgomery
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jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery
@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
3.7K followers 1.2K following 960 posts

Political (Data) Scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. Data science, social media, American politics, and grumpy Bayesian. All opinions my own.

Videos
Political science 32%
Computer science 20%
Posts Replies Media Videos

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 1h
This is how democracy ends.
Trump Regrets Not Seizing Voting Machines After 2020 Election
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Brian A. Nosek, Jacob Montgomery, Kate A. Ratliff

calvinklai.bsky.social
Calvin Lai @calvinklai.bsky.social · 3d
Project Implicit is facing an existential threat. After almost 30 years, 60 million visitors, and hundreds of published papers, funding for our work has disappeared.

We’ve never held a fundraising drive before, but we need your support to keep our site running. Please consider donating! 🙏
projectimplicit.bsky.social Project Implicit @projectimplicit.bsky.social · 5d
Project Implicit is a research nonprofit behind tools millions use to understand bias. Like many public science orgs, sustaining this work has become increasingly difficult. We are at risk of closing without additional support.

Help protect this impt work by donating here: 4agc.com/donate/impli...

Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, Jan W. Mueller, Matthew Bunn , and 38 more

birchlse.bsky.social
Jonathan Birch @birchlse.bsky.social · 3d
Martin Peterson's creative response to being banned from teaching Plato (shared with his permission).
An email from Martin Peterson to university administrators.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 3d
Has anyone tried teaching stats using Jasp? Thoughts?

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery, Jarome R. Ali

carlbergstrom.com
Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 4d
No one *licensed* anyone to make CSAM of their kids, and the tech company that provides both the production technology and the distribution system should be prosecuted out of existence.
akivamcohen.bsky.social AkivaMCohen @akivamcohen.bsky.social · 6d
Co-signing this. Grok is out there making CSAM on request from pictures posted to the internet.

And if you posted pictures of your kids to Twitter, you LICENSED Grok to do that. Take those pics down NOW
gamzehyaavor.bsky.social GZY ⍼ גז"י @gamzehyaavor.bsky.social · 6d
Parents, if you didn't have a problem until now of not posting pics of your kids on public social media, now might be a good time to start (and maybe scrub what's there already).

Reposted by Stephen M. Walt, Jacob Montgomery, Rebecca Tushnet , and 3 more

brendannyhan.bsky.social
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 6d
In competitive authoritarian regimes, the government deters and undermines opposition by using its powers to inflict costs on those who challenge it rather than recognizing their legitimacy as democratic opponents
cnbc.com CNBC @cnbc.com · 6d
The Pentagon will cut the military retirement pay of Sen. Mark Kelly for what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the Arizona Democrat’s “seditious” statements on a video telling service members they have the right to refuse to execute illegal orders.

Read more: cnb.cx/495FHLo

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

dandrezner.bsky.social
Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 20d
Thanks to Bari Weiss for testing whether the Streisand Effect still has any juice.

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery, Daniel W. Drezner, David R. Miller , and 2 more

lemieuxlgm.bsky.social
Scott Lemieux @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social · 20d
LOL "Bari killed this meticulous story because it was unfavorable to the Trump administration" is literally the story they're giving to their stenographer

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 22d
From a bunch of terrorists dressed up like Fabio for some reason…

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 22d
Her boss flew her estranged husband out for Christmas!? And then he gets triggered because she is using her maiden name? Like a dissertation worth of late 80s male angst.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 22d
Man I had really forgotten the crazy gender dynamics of the first 20 minutes of Die Hard….

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery, Robert C. Richards

bensilverstein.bsky.social
Ben Silverstein ❌👑 @bensilverstein.bsky.social · 23d
ICE is refusing to release a US citizen despite extensive documentation of her citizenship. Presented with her birth certificate, they called it a fake and transferred her from Maryland to Louisiana. www.huffpost.com/entry/us-cit...
Trump Administration Says Maryland Woman's Birth Certificate Is Fake In Dystopian Move
Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales was arrested on Sunday. ICE won’t release her despite extensive documentation of her citizenship, her attorneys told HuffPost.
www.huffpost.com

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Stephen M. Walt, Nina Jankowicz , and 14 more

jonfischer.bsky.social
Jonathan L. Fischer @jonfischer.bsky.social · 23d
NEWS: They're adding Trump's name to the Kennedy Center building right now. www.washingtonpost.com/entertainmen...
Kennedy Center adds Trump’s name to building
The signage change follows a vote by the board of trustees to rename the performing arts complex the Trump Kennedy Center.
www.washingtonpost.com

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 24d
Weird how checking this website persistently hasn't helped me grade. At. All.

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

dandrezner.bsky.social
Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 24d
It’s not just that Trump lied constantly during his speech tonight; I’m not sure he said a single thing that was factually correct.

Reposted by Richard E. Lenski, Jacob Montgomery, Aaron Sojourner

cmewing.bsky.social
Connor Ewing @cmewing.bsky.social · 24d
Simpler times

Reposted by Michael E. Mann, Jacob Montgomery, Anders Nilsson , and 1 more

parkermolloy.com
Parker Molloy @parkermolloy.com · 25d
You'll remember that when Biden delivered an address in 2022, networks refused to air it because they said it was "political" www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/0...
As Biden warned about democracy’s collapse, TV networks aired reruns
Broadcasters NBC, CBS and ABC usually air presidential prime-time addresses live. But they found Biden's Philadelphia speech more "political" than newsworthy.
www.washingtonpost.com

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery, David R. Miller

judiciarydems.senate.gov
Senate Judiciary Democrats 🇺🇸 @judiciarydems.senate.gov · 25d
PAINFUL to watch. There’s a clear Trump judicial nominee loyalty test.

They must forever deny, deny, deny that he lost the 2020 presidential election.

Fragile.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 26d
Totally agree. I just think it's early days yet on this. We'll see ...

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 26d
I agree for now.

But I didn't think I could chit chat with a computer about R sytnax 4 years ago, so I think it's worth being at least a bit open minded.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 26d
I think that sounds right as things currently stand.

But that's a distinction in how the model is being trained and used. It is not about the class of models being used to impute per se.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 26d
I think I mostly agree? But then ...

www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Not Asked and Not Answered: Multiple Imputation for Multiple Surveys
We present a method of analyzing a series of independent cross-sectional surveys in which some questions are not answered in some surveys and some respondents do not answer some of the questions po...
www.tandfonline.com

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 26d
I think the idea is we can use it for like pre-testing, working on survey flow, etc? Not that they provide a substitute for real survey response.

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 26d
And to be clear, I remain highly skeptical that we *currently* know how to do this well.

But the position that we cannot possibly use AI to impute survey data in a scientifically valid way seems inconsistent with what we are *already* doing.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 26d
Just to stir the pot a bit ....

If you are really, deeply against using machine learning to create synthetic survey responses, I have bad news for you about MRP.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 26d
American Greatness!
casmudde.bsky.social Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 26d
Holy measles, Batman! 😳

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

casmudde.bsky.social
Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 26d
Holy measles, Batman! 😳

Reposted by Nicholas A. Christakis, Marco Festa‐Bianchet, Lesley A. Hall , and 30 more

andrew.heiss.phd
Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 27d
Grading and googling hallucinated citations, as one does nowadays, and now that LLMs have been around for a while, I've discovered new horrors: hallucinated journals are now appearing in Google Scholar with dozens of citations bc so many people are citing these fake things

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery, Timothy D. McBride

gabbygiffords.bsky.social
Gabby Giffords @gabbygiffords.bsky.social · 28d
13 years ago, 20 children and 6 educators never came home from Sandy Hook Elementary School. They were killed in their classrooms in a shooting that changed our nation forever.

Reposted by Jacob Montgomery

reuning.bsky.social
Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 28d
>Police body cameras equipped with artificial intelligence have been trained to detect the faces of about 7,000 people on a “high risk” watch list in the Canadian city of Edmonton, a

This is terrifying.
AI-powered police body cameras, once taboo, get tested on Canadian city’s ‘watch list’ of faces - ICT
A criminology professor said the police service has had a sometimes ‘frosty’ relationship with its Indigenous and Black residents and it remains to be seen whether facial recognition technology makes ...
ictnews.org