Ben
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Ben
@btdrawer.bsky.social
hopefully net positive
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on track for a white christmas
December 21, 2025 at 11:56 AM
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I've started a newsletter, The Update.

Today I cover how journalists should use social science, EU-US unemployment convergence, the definition of AGI, and more.

Please subscribe!

theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
December 19, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Not me putting the Geese album on then immediately telling Claude Code to do something, and it tells me it's 'Honking' 😭
December 2, 2025 at 10:25 AM
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Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.

OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 1:03 PM
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AI could end scarcity, end humanity - or boost trend growth by 0.2 percentage points
November 7, 2025 at 1:24 PM
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model’s haunted
October 18, 2025 at 3:40 AM
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I know there's a lot going on, but occasionally it's good to remind people that billions of animals suffer in crazy conditions in factory farms. In the U.S. it's gotten worse / denser in recent yrs, contrary to popular conception.

https://www.palladiummag.com/2025/11/01/factory-farming-is-a-blight/
November 3, 2025 at 5:39 PM
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“Someone else can pay for it”ism seems to have infected huge swathes of British politics. Left variants include wealth tax, more tax on the ultra rich, “debt doesn’t matter”, etc. Right variants include deporting people on welfare, “efficiency” cuts, etc.
November 3, 2025 at 9:17 AM
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Saturday's Start over Chicago's Lake Michigan.
November 1, 2025 at 1:29 PM
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The fundamental problem:

58% of voters want public spending maintained or increased.

67% want taxes to stay at their current level or be cut.

In reality, it’s a binary choice. Taxes go up, or spending is cut. That’s it.
October 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM
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Under Over Over - West Hampstead

So it's taken a while, but I've finally found a location where you can clearly see London Underground trains traveling over London Overground trains.

The vantage point is at West Hampstead Overground station at the end of the platform.
October 20, 2025 at 6:54 AM
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Edinburgh castle failing to render, likely thanks to the AWS outage
October 20, 2025 at 8:35 AM
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wrote about this last year and sure I wasn't in any way the only one but imo people voting for populist politics in the 21st century *is* a sign that they do just have too much faith in institutions, as opposed to not enough - they want to have their little tantrum but assume things will just hold
September 19, 2025 at 8:23 PM
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'The New Camden' (1976) by Jennifer Elizabeth Brown

(London Borough of Camden, Town Hall Extension)
September 12, 2025 at 11:28 AM
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If a Labour government with 400 seats which has nailed its colours to the masts of planning reform and the green transition can't steam roller people like this and their ridiculous selfish BS objections, then what on earth is the point of it?
A solar farm that could have powered “all the households in Witney” has been refused permission by West Oxfordshire District Council. Councillors were concerned about the risk of fire, one drawing parallels to the 1966 Aberfan disaster: “Until someone can guarantee it is safe, I can’t support it.”
September 9, 2025 at 12:21 PM
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In most of the world, bigger cities have stronger economies. It happens in France, the USA, the Netherlands, Belgium, and on, and on. But not in Britain. In Britain, the bigger a city gets the weaker its economy is, except for London. This costs us dearly.
August 13, 2025 at 11:25 PM
George Clanton - I Been Young
YouTube video by GeorgeClantonVEVO
www.youtube.com
August 5, 2025 at 4:59 PM
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A UK wealth tax sounds simple: "tax the super‑rich, fund public services"

But it's not.

Our 16,000 word deep‑dive shows revenues are fragile, it puts growth, investment and jobs at risk, and there's no revenue before 2029.

Here’s the evidence:
July 22, 2025 at 8:15 AM
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launching the concept of having a single espresso followed by a can of diet coke, the elegant daytime equivalent of ordering a shot and a beer
June 11, 2025 at 12:28 PM
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I like this analogy - like DIY, vibe coding can make lots of little things better, and you can learn new tricks along the way. But you wouldn’t want to rely on it for anything where safety, stability or security is essential.
June 3, 2025 at 11:01 AM
We're extremely back
May 15, 2025 at 9:14 AM
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Probably the purest distillation of Trump’s neomercantilist ideology that any time you import something you’re automatically losing. He can’t even grasp the concept of a mutually beneficial transaction.
Trump: "We were losing hundreds of billions of dollars with China. Now we're essentially not doing business with China. Therefore, we're saving hundreds of billions of dollars. It's very simple."
May 4, 2025 at 3:57 PM
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Biggest commitment to a 3 second joke I've ever seen
April 9, 2025 at 6:33 AM
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how to get into smuggling
how to smuggle goods
what goods are easily smuggled
where to smuggle goods from
overseas suppliers of goods
how to speak chinese
least secure trading ports
best boat for smuggling
cheapest boat for smuggling
maritime law
boat driving basics
boat law

how to get into piracy
April 9, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Reposted by Ben
I do think blanket opposition to free trade was kind of a luxury belief for a lot of political actors because it was so assumed that the pro-trade coalition was so strong we'd never get something like this. whoops.
April 4, 2025 at 7:46 PM