Frederik A. H. Pedersen
@fahpedersen.bsky.social
Army Officer. Previously @ Princeton. Latest publication: "Narrow windows of opportunity: the limited utility of cyber operations in war" (https://doi.org/10.1093/cybsec/tyae014)
Pinned
Narrow windows of opportunity: the limited utility of cyber operations in war
Abstract. The use of offensive cyber operations in war is no longer theoretical conjecture. Still, as we witness their use, important questions remain. How
doi.org
How much do offensive cyber ops really matter for conventional warfare?
Using data from Ukraine, we found that it's tough for cyber ops to significantly impact warfighting — as we published last year.
A year on, little has changed.
doi.org/10.1093/cybs...
Using data from Ukraine, we found that it's tough for cyber ops to significantly impact warfighting — as we published last year.
A year on, little has changed.
doi.org/10.1093/cybs...
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Some Europeans will be reassured by this, and wind down the (cautious) assertiveness of recent days.
But it shows that displays of European resolve move Trump in ways that the misguided sycophancy of previous 12 months never did. It's a reason to press forward, not pull back.
But it shows that displays of European resolve move Trump in ways that the misguided sycophancy of previous 12 months never did. It's a reason to press forward, not pull back.
Trump on NATO: "We never ask for anything, and we never got anything. We probably won't get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force, where we would be frankly unstoppable. But I won't do that. Okay?"
January 21, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Some Europeans will be reassured by this, and wind down the (cautious) assertiveness of recent days.
But it shows that displays of European resolve move Trump in ways that the misguided sycophancy of previous 12 months never did. It's a reason to press forward, not pull back.
But it shows that displays of European resolve move Trump in ways that the misguided sycophancy of previous 12 months never did. It's a reason to press forward, not pull back.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Can’t be emphasized enough that the US-led global order has been to US advantage.
Trump’s complaint is basically: You accepting that we’re No. 1, with international institutions and conventions tilted in our favor—because you benefit from it too—was really unfair to us, let’s make it worse for all.
Trump’s complaint is basically: You accepting that we’re No. 1, with international institutions and conventions tilted in our favor—because you benefit from it too—was really unfair to us, let’s make it worse for all.
January 21, 2026 at 2:35 PM
Can’t be emphasized enough that the US-led global order has been to US advantage.
Trump’s complaint is basically: You accepting that we’re No. 1, with international institutions and conventions tilted in our favor—because you benefit from it too—was really unfair to us, let’s make it worse for all.
Trump’s complaint is basically: You accepting that we’re No. 1, with international institutions and conventions tilted in our favor—because you benefit from it too—was really unfair to us, let’s make it worse for all.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
This effort to curry favor by acting like an insult comic will be forgotten within the Trump administration in a day, but will make headlines and be remembered for decades in the countries being insulted.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “Denmark’s investment in U.S. Treasury bonds, like Denmark itself, is irrelevant” www.cnbc.com/2026/01/21/b...
Scott Bessent says U.S. is unconcerned by Treasury sell-off over Greenland, calls Denmark ‘irrelevant’
U.S. treasury secretary Scott Bessant addressed reporters at a news conference at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday.
www.cnbc.com
January 21, 2026 at 3:11 PM
This effort to curry favor by acting like an insult comic will be forgotten within the Trump administration in a day, but will make headlines and be remembered for decades in the countries being insulted.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Trump ruling out the use of military force does not defuse this crisis
Europe & Denmark's red lines are territorial integrity & the right of self-determination for the people of Greenland. They do not want to join the US
Trump has to give up his ambition for sovereign control
Europe & Denmark's red lines are territorial integrity & the right of self-determination for the people of Greenland. They do not want to join the US
Trump has to give up his ambition for sovereign control
January 21, 2026 at 4:36 PM
Trump ruling out the use of military force does not defuse this crisis
Europe & Denmark's red lines are territorial integrity & the right of self-determination for the people of Greenland. They do not want to join the US
Trump has to give up his ambition for sovereign control
Europe & Denmark's red lines are territorial integrity & the right of self-determination for the people of Greenland. They do not want to join the US
Trump has to give up his ambition for sovereign control
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
It is very naive to think that the tensions over Greenland have been reduced, along with the threat it represents, after Trump's speech.
Latching on to a single phrase, glossing over the rest of it, is sticking ones head in the sand.
Hoping it just goes over isn't a strategy.
Latching on to a single phrase, glossing over the rest of it, is sticking ones head in the sand.
Hoping it just goes over isn't a strategy.
January 21, 2026 at 4:03 PM
It is very naive to think that the tensions over Greenland have been reduced, along with the threat it represents, after Trump's speech.
Latching on to a single phrase, glossing over the rest of it, is sticking ones head in the sand.
Hoping it just goes over isn't a strategy.
Latching on to a single phrase, glossing over the rest of it, is sticking ones head in the sand.
Hoping it just goes over isn't a strategy.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Attn news commentators: Trump saying he could use force to obtain Greenland but won’t is not Trump saying he won’t use force to obtain Greenland. It is Trump using force as a threat to obtain Greenland. That is why he mentions it.
January 21, 2026 at 2:16 PM
Attn news commentators: Trump saying he could use force to obtain Greenland but won’t is not Trump saying he won’t use force to obtain Greenland. It is Trump using force as a threat to obtain Greenland. That is why he mentions it.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
If you're only reading headlines and see "Trump Says He Won't Use Force" it will give you a misimpression of both how bellicose this speech is and how dug in he is on Greenland.
January 21, 2026 at 2:16 PM
If you're only reading headlines and see "Trump Says He Won't Use Force" it will give you a misimpression of both how bellicose this speech is and how dug in he is on Greenland.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
How hard is it to read a book?
January 20, 2026 at 9:47 PM
How hard is it to read a book?
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Here is the full text of Carney's speech. Very much worth reading.
paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
paulwells.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 4:19 PM
Here is the full text of Carney's speech. Very much worth reading.
paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Despite tariff threats France is sending more military support to Greenland.
The frigate Bretagne is deployed, and Arctic elite troops will follow, France’s ambassador says.
“The very existence of the Kingdom of Denmark is at stake. And so is the fate of NATO and the EU.”
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
The frigate Bretagne is deployed, and Arctic elite troops will follow, France’s ambassador says.
“The very existence of the Kingdom of Denmark is at stake. And so is the fate of NATO and the EU.”
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
Frankrig vakler ikke trods Trumps toldtrussel: 'Vi vil være der for jer'
Frankrigs ambassadør i Danmark understreger vigtigheden af at stå sammen.
www.dr.dk
January 20, 2026 at 10:19 AM
Despite tariff threats France is sending more military support to Greenland.
The frigate Bretagne is deployed, and Arctic elite troops will follow, France’s ambassador says.
“The very existence of the Kingdom of Denmark is at stake. And so is the fate of NATO and the EU.”
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
The frigate Bretagne is deployed, and Arctic elite troops will follow, France’s ambassador says.
“The very existence of the Kingdom of Denmark is at stake. And so is the fate of NATO and the EU.”
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
If you listen very carefully, you can hear Charles de Gaulle screaming I BLOODY TOLD YOU SO from some rural French cemetery.
January 17, 2026 at 5:59 PM
If you listen very carefully, you can hear Charles de Gaulle screaming I BLOODY TOLD YOU SO from some rural French cemetery.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
2026 is seeing that the U.S. Army is mobilizing a unit specialized for winter conditions, but not knowing if the intended mission is violent repression of an American city or stealing territory from a U.S. treaty ally.
January 18, 2026 at 3:29 PM
2026 is seeing that the U.S. Army is mobilizing a unit specialized for winter conditions, but not knowing if the intended mission is violent repression of an American city or stealing territory from a U.S. treaty ally.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
I think the White House badly underestimates the strength of the pan-European folk memory of 1930s appeasement, and how deep it still cuts. I suppose this is what happens when you learn in school that WW2 started in 1941 in Hawaii.
January 18, 2026 at 1:04 PM
I think the White House badly underestimates the strength of the pan-European folk memory of 1930s appeasement, and how deep it still cuts. I suppose this is what happens when you learn in school that WW2 started in 1941 in Hawaii.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
US discourses that frame Europe as in eternal decline that have been embedded in American culture since the mid-18th century have left America's elites unprepared for the potential strategic implications of European integration
January 17, 2026 at 10:07 PM
US discourses that frame Europe as in eternal decline that have been embedded in American culture since the mid-18th century have left America's elites unprepared for the potential strategic implications of European integration
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
I want to be clear about what I’m saying here. The only way to restore credibility as a reliable and safe ally is to totally and utterly repudiate this administration. That cannot happen at the ballot box. It has to be done by the Republican Party. That is the only way to regain any level of trust.
I'm game for them deciding that it's easier to get a bunch of quo warranto writs and fail votes to remove the insurrection disqualification.
January 17, 2026 at 8:52 PM
I want to be clear about what I’m saying here. The only way to restore credibility as a reliable and safe ally is to totally and utterly repudiate this administration. That cannot happen at the ballot box. It has to be done by the Republican Party. That is the only way to regain any level of trust.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Trump can put a million-percent tariffs on Denmark, and it still doesn't change the answer about Greenland. There are only two possible endings to this bizarre story. Either Trump gives up, or else he goes through with a military invasion.
January 17, 2026 at 5:05 PM
Trump can put a million-percent tariffs on Denmark, and it still doesn't change the answer about Greenland. There are only two possible endings to this bizarre story. Either Trump gives up, or else he goes through with a military invasion.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
The Danish military gears up to defend Greenland
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
Denmark’s Army Chief Says He’s Ready to Defend Greenland
Danish forces are moving to the island to show NATO—and Trump—that they’re serious about security.
www.theatlantic.com
January 14, 2026 at 6:56 PM
The Danish military gears up to defend Greenland
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
A problem with current geopolitical analysis is how in its lack of attention to internal dynamics of great powers it does not take adequately into account how increasingly wild external projection of power by the US, Russia and China is driven by their growing domestic fragility
January 7, 2026 at 9:30 PM
A problem with current geopolitical analysis is how in its lack of attention to internal dynamics of great powers it does not take adequately into account how increasingly wild external projection of power by the US, Russia and China is driven by their growing domestic fragility
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Not everyone believed me when I wrote that Trump wants Greenland becuase it would make him feel important, but that's what he told the NYT:
When asked why he needed to possess the territory, he said: “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success"
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...
When asked why he needed to possess the territory, he said: “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success"
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...
Trump Lays Out a Vision of Power Restrained Only by ‘My Own Morality’
www.nytimes.com
January 9, 2026 at 5:56 AM
Not everyone believed me when I wrote that Trump wants Greenland becuase it would make him feel important, but that's what he told the NYT:
When asked why he needed to possess the territory, he said: “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success"
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...
When asked why he needed to possess the territory, he said: “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success"
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
I had forgotten this, but it is consistent with Trump's efforts to pressure Zelenskyy into dangerous concessions to Putin. It should be (yet another) alarm signal to European leaders - Trump's goals in Ukraine may be the opposite of Europe's.
During Fiona Hill's testimony to Congress on Oct 14, 2019, she described how Trump and Putin discussed exchanging Ukraine for Venezuela. The quid pro quo was if Trump refuses to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, Putin would not help Venezuela (a Russian ally) resist a US takeover.
January 4, 2026 at 11:22 AM
I had forgotten this, but it is consistent with Trump's efforts to pressure Zelenskyy into dangerous concessions to Putin. It should be (yet another) alarm signal to European leaders - Trump's goals in Ukraine may be the opposite of Europe's.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
I’ve long maintained that it was a mistake for Congress to have abolished itself.
January 3, 2026 at 10:57 AM
I’ve long maintained that it was a mistake for Congress to have abolished itself.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
What if they constantly want culture war because policy war is complicated and hard and culture war is stupid and easy
Marco Rubio ordered diplomats to return to using Times New Roman font in official communications, calling his predecessor's decision to adopt Calibri a “wasteful” diversity move
Rubio Stages Font Coup: Times New Roman Ousts Calibri
The secretary of state called it a "wasteful" diversity move, according to an internal department cable seen by Reuters.
www.huffpost.com
December 10, 2025 at 7:11 PM
What if they constantly want culture war because policy war is complicated and hard and culture war is stupid and easy
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
The new National Security Strategy is a propaganda document, designed to be widely read. It is also a performative suicide. Hard to think of another great power ever abdicating its influence so quickly and so publicly. It will be worth following the reactions around the world, not just in Europe.
Trump's national security strategy is out and some of the Europe sections are shocking. "...the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed
gives cause for great optimism."
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
gives cause for great optimism."
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 12:17 PM
The new National Security Strategy is a propaganda document, designed to be widely read. It is also a performative suicide. Hard to think of another great power ever abdicating its influence so quickly and so publicly. It will be worth following the reactions around the world, not just in Europe.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Holy moly, do people still think the U.S. is an ally of Europe? It is now an officially stated foreign policy goal to undermine the EU and centrist European governments that don't ideologically align with MAGA.
Europeans are waking up this morning to find the new US National Security Strategy (quietly) released. And what it has to say on Europe could not be clearer. On the „stark prospect of civilizations erasure“ for example. 👇
December 5, 2025 at 5:42 AM
Holy moly, do people still think the U.S. is an ally of Europe? It is now an officially stated foreign policy goal to undermine the EU and centrist European governments that don't ideologically align with MAGA.