Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989–1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989–1991 is out today!

Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...

Thanks @lanoszka.bsky.social for the kind words, and for reminding me to engage in SELF PROMOTION ☝️ Russian ☢️-deployments to Belarus are driven by 🇷🇺 interests: preventing interference in 🇧🇾 and using them as a lever against NATO. At least, that is what I deduce from the limited evidence available.

🚨 How & why do nuclear delivery vehicles proliferate? My article on the spread of delivery vehicles is out at Security Studies! #OpenAccess

It explains:
- Why the NPT allows nuclear delivery vehicles to spread
- How did India acquire its #nuclear delivery technology
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

TL;DR of nukes at China's military parade yesterday:

🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM??
🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader?
✈️ air-launched ballistic missile?
🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time

Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:

🚨 It’s publication day!

THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.

When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.

Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

shorturl.at/qa4T5

Although US credibility not perfect. Plausible Germany might ultimately bank on Fr/UK (less capabilities but more political commitment) over US (more capabilities but less political commitment)? Relevance of US damage limitation is limited if Europe judges the US doesn't care about defending them...

Why did Margaret Thatcher oppose German reunification 35 years ago? Yes, she disliked the Germans - but her deeper fear was socialism creeping into Britain through the Brussels backdoor, driven by an increasingly dominant Germany. Probably my best research. Let me know if you’d like a copy.

Vipin and I wrote a new piece for Foreign Affairs, called "How to Survive the New Nuclear Age". Gift link below.

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

Melissa Hortman, who was assassinated last night, was the Speaker of the Minnesota House in the 2023-2024 session, when Democrats ran the state government.

That means she had a leading role in shepherding the many landmark reforms that Dems adopted in that period—an important legacy. Brief 🧵.

The Israelis are calling this a "preemptive" strike. Whether you agree or disagree with this attack, these are not - from what we know tonight - "preemptive" strikes. The Israelis are using that word for a reason. Read on. /1

🚨The UK Nuclear Deterrence Network's Deterrence Futures Fellowship is now open for applications. Join the conversation on the evolving nature of deterrence in today's complex security landscape. For more details visit our website: bit.ly/4mWPE2F

Without the U.S. nuclear backstop, Europe would be best served by prioritizing nonproliferation and credible deterrence—and accepting a level of strategic instability in Europe-Russian relations, write @marksbell.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists republished my remembrance of Dick Garwin. thebulletin.org/2025/05/h-bo...

My initial impression: Macron is saying he wants France to have an extended nuclear deterrence policy, but without doing anything costly to make such an extended deterrent commitment credible to allies and adversaries. Which... isn't going to work.

Very pleased to have this research note in ISQ! It finds that unconditional signals of U.S. abandonment, and to a lesser extent conditional U.S. threats of abandonment and increased alliance burden-sharing, modestly increase support for nuclear weapons. But effect sizes are fairly small overall.

Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>

Based on what I've seen credibly reported over the last 2-3 hours, it is fair to now call this a full-scale war.

"It's the difference between a kayak and a battleship" -- why building a Golden Dome over the US would be so much harder than Israel's Iron Dome. Leave it to @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social to come up with the striking simile.
I belatedly came across the NPR article.
www.npr.org/2025/04/22/g...

I’ve been honored to serve as the @apsa.bsky.social rep on the committee (a role mandated by Congress) since 2020 + to have chaired the committee since 2021. Congress understood in creating its 1991 statute governing our work the importance of “thorough, accurate, and reliable” accounts of the past

Unhappy to confirm that the entire Historical Advisory Committee at the State Department received termination notices this afternoon (myself included). The HAC, set up by Congress, oversees the office that produces the FRUS series. history.state.gov/about/hac/in... 1/

American politics powerhouse and professor Kathryn Pearson @kpminnesota.bsky.social has been named @umncla.bsky.social's 2025 Dean's Medalist.

Learn how she came to specialize in American politics, her current research, and her approach to teaching: cla.umn.edu/news-events/...

I'm excited to share that my book, Rebels in the Field, will be coming out with Oxford University Press this summer. The book focuses on the military processes involved in deploying force in substate conflicts.

Good explainer from @wired.com on long-term plans globally to store used nuclear fuel in deep geological repositories.👇

Finland's is just about ready to go, with Sweden, France, Switzerland, Canada and others advancing similar projects.

#NukeSky 🔌💡