@microeconomics.bsky.social
Reposted
Meanwhile, Meta's workforce grew 4% in Q1 and keeps growing steadily even alongside the high-profile trickle of headlines about layoffs, cost-cutting, etc.
*There was another ~5% cut in the Feb performance review cycle which may partially land in Q2: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
*There was another ~5% cut in the Feb performance review cycle which may partially land in Q2: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
April 30, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Meanwhile, Meta's workforce grew 4% in Q1 and keeps growing steadily even alongside the high-profile trickle of headlines about layoffs, cost-cutting, etc.
*There was another ~5% cut in the Feb performance review cycle which may partially land in Q2: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
*There was another ~5% cut in the Feb performance review cycle which may partially land in Q2: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted
Trump net approval down to -9.7%, which is the lowest ever for a presidential term after 100 days:
April 29, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Trump net approval down to -9.7%, which is the lowest ever for a presidential term after 100 days:
Reposted
Really in-depth paper on AI hallucinations in medicine, with lots of discussion and analysis about addressing them & what is appropriate for medicine
But I found this bit on how much more
accurate the latest models have gotten to be interesting (though more work is needed) arxiv.org/pdf/2503.057...
But I found this bit on how much more
accurate the latest models have gotten to be interesting (though more work is needed) arxiv.org/pdf/2503.057...
March 11, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Really in-depth paper on AI hallucinations in medicine, with lots of discussion and analysis about addressing them & what is appropriate for medicine
But I found this bit on how much more
accurate the latest models have gotten to be interesting (though more work is needed) arxiv.org/pdf/2503.057...
But I found this bit on how much more
accurate the latest models have gotten to be interesting (though more work is needed) arxiv.org/pdf/2503.057...
Reposted
‼️ THE COVID HOMICIDE WAVE HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED (at least in cities) ‼️
The quietly-released Major Cities Chief Assn violent crime data showed homicides fell by ~17%, to levels below those in 2020; higher still than 2019 (w 2 fewer agencies reporting), but lower than 2016 and 2017.
This is BIG NEWS!
The quietly-released Major Cities Chief Assn violent crime data showed homicides fell by ~17%, to levels below those in 2020; higher still than 2019 (w 2 fewer agencies reporting), but lower than 2016 and 2017.
This is BIG NEWS!
March 4, 2025 at 3:00 PM
‼️ THE COVID HOMICIDE WAVE HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED (at least in cities) ‼️
The quietly-released Major Cities Chief Assn violent crime data showed homicides fell by ~17%, to levels below those in 2020; higher still than 2019 (w 2 fewer agencies reporting), but lower than 2016 and 2017.
This is BIG NEWS!
The quietly-released Major Cities Chief Assn violent crime data showed homicides fell by ~17%, to levels below those in 2020; higher still than 2019 (w 2 fewer agencies reporting), but lower than 2016 and 2017.
This is BIG NEWS!
Reposted
The funniest thing about all this is Joe Biden built a "bring back US manufacturing" button and Trump could have just kept pressing it but instead he insisted on smashing the "crash the stock market" button
March 11, 2025 at 10:38 PM
The funniest thing about all this is Joe Biden built a "bring back US manufacturing" button and Trump could have just kept pressing it but instead he insisted on smashing the "crash the stock market" button
Reposted
The NYT reports that due to pressure from the Trump administration, the Mexican drug cartels haven't felt this much stress in years, with leaders going into hiding and shutting down fentanyl labs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/w...
March 3, 2025 at 1:00 AM
The NYT reports that due to pressure from the Trump administration, the Mexican drug cartels haven't felt this much stress in years, with leaders going into hiding and shutting down fentanyl labs.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/w...
Reposted
Ironic albeit unsurprising: the admin’s eagerness to reconcile and align with Russia has been a major boon for share prices of european banks (many of which were hit hard by sanctions and have…interesting clients)
Not so great for American oil & gas E&Ps’ share prices
Not so great for American oil & gas E&Ps’ share prices
March 1, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Ironic albeit unsurprising: the admin’s eagerness to reconcile and align with Russia has been a major boon for share prices of european banks (many of which were hit hard by sanctions and have…interesting clients)
Not so great for American oil & gas E&Ps’ share prices
Not so great for American oil & gas E&Ps’ share prices
Reposted
Great guest contribution to the Odd Lots newsletter from Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro why downside risks are emerging for the US economy.
Sub to the newsletter here:
www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
Sub to the newsletter here:
www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
February 24, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Great guest contribution to the Odd Lots newsletter from Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro why downside risks are emerging for the US economy.
Sub to the newsletter here:
www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
Sub to the newsletter here:
www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
Reposted
5/7
By undercutting manufacturing in these countries, these cheap imports can result in a net decline in total production, in which case consumers in these countries will actually consume less because their incomes will decline faster than the prices of consumer goods.
By undercutting manufacturing in these countries, these cheap imports can result in a net decline in total production, in which case consumers in these countries will actually consume less because their incomes will decline faster than the prices of consumer goods.
February 14, 2025 at 3:50 AM
5/7
By undercutting manufacturing in these countries, these cheap imports can result in a net decline in total production, in which case consumers in these countries will actually consume less because their incomes will decline faster than the prices of consumer goods.
By undercutting manufacturing in these countries, these cheap imports can result in a net decline in total production, in which case consumers in these countries will actually consume less because their incomes will decline faster than the prices of consumer goods.
Reposted
Anything pink here just shifted with the nation, blue is trending Dem, darker red is trending away from Dems and represents the past more than the future of the party (which doesn’t mean the states will flip, but the 2010’s are over):
February 11, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Anything pink here just shifted with the nation, blue is trending Dem, darker red is trending away from Dems and represents the past more than the future of the party (which doesn’t mean the states will flip, but the 2010’s are over):
Reposted
I have a new piece in @ForeignAffairs titled, "The Post-Neoliberal Delusion and the Tragedy of Bidenomics". They were generous about giving me a lot of words but were less generous with charts--so this long thread partially rectifies that. (And links to the piece at the end.)
February 10, 2025 at 9:24 PM
I have a new piece in @ForeignAffairs titled, "The Post-Neoliberal Delusion and the Tragedy of Bidenomics". They were generous about giving me a lot of words but were less generous with charts--so this long thread partially rectifies that. (And links to the piece at the end.)
Reposted
Reposted
Remarkable: Spain's post-2008 GDP has now grown more in % terms than Germany's, mainly thanks to the last three years (h/t @danielkral.bsky.social).
January 30, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Remarkable: Spain's post-2008 GDP has now grown more in % terms than Germany's, mainly thanks to the last three years (h/t @danielkral.bsky.social).
Reposted
My annual decarbonization presentation is here.
200 slides, covering everything from water levels in Lake Gatún to sulfur dioxide emissions to ESG fund flows to Chinese auto exports to artificial intelligence. www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
200 slides, covering everything from water levels in Lake Gatún to sulfur dioxide emissions to ESG fund flows to Chinese auto exports to artificial intelligence. www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
January 30, 2025 at 12:28 PM
My annual decarbonization presentation is here.
200 slides, covering everything from water levels in Lake Gatún to sulfur dioxide emissions to ESG fund flows to Chinese auto exports to artificial intelligence. www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
200 slides, covering everything from water levels in Lake Gatún to sulfur dioxide emissions to ESG fund flows to Chinese auto exports to artificial intelligence. www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
Reposted
Despite all the headlines about Meta's layoffs and cost-cutting, they've still grown their headcount steadily by 1–3% for the last 5 quarters in a row. In Q4 2024, they grew 2% QoQ (+10% YoY).
January 29, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Despite all the headlines about Meta's layoffs and cost-cutting, they've still grown their headcount steadily by 1–3% for the last 5 quarters in a row. In Q4 2024, they grew 2% QoQ (+10% YoY).
Reposted
January 27, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Reposted
For all the new arrivals, a starter pack for real time economic analysis and commentary
go.bsky.app/6L2nSyU
go.bsky.app/6L2nSyU
January 23, 2025 at 2:26 AM
For all the new arrivals, a starter pack for real time economic analysis and commentary
go.bsky.app/6L2nSyU
go.bsky.app/6L2nSyU
Reposted
Not sure about this. Real cash balances are substantially higher than pre-pandemic across the income distribution after accounting for inflation. Exception: bottom quintile (where incomes are also growing fastest). Debt lower in real terms outside the next 19%, net worth has outperf'd outside top 1%
January 22, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Not sure about this. Real cash balances are substantially higher than pre-pandemic across the income distribution after accounting for inflation. Exception: bottom quintile (where incomes are also growing fastest). Debt lower in real terms outside the next 19%, net worth has outperf'd outside top 1%
Reposted
There were better shows on Netflix when it cost $10 a month
January 21, 2025 at 10:40 PM
There were better shows on Netflix when it cost $10 a month
Reposted
Housing disinflation continues apace in the latest "all tenant" rent index produced by the BLS and that tends to lead the CPI shelter series. With the latest reading of 3.18%, it is very close to the 3.06% average from 2017-19.
January 22, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Housing disinflation continues apace in the latest "all tenant" rent index produced by the BLS and that tends to lead the CPI shelter series. With the latest reading of 3.18%, it is very close to the 3.06% average from 2017-19.
Reposted
5/9
There are literally only three ways China can reduce its trade surplus. One way, obviously, is to produce less, but of course that would be extremely painful economically and would force up unemployment. Beijing would do all it could to avoid this "solution".
There are literally only three ways China can reduce its trade surplus. One way, obviously, is to produce less, but of course that would be extremely painful economically and would force up unemployment. Beijing would do all it could to avoid this "solution".
January 22, 2025 at 3:51 AM
5/9
There are literally only three ways China can reduce its trade surplus. One way, obviously, is to produce less, but of course that would be extremely painful economically and would force up unemployment. Beijing would do all it could to avoid this "solution".
There are literally only three ways China can reduce its trade surplus. One way, obviously, is to produce less, but of course that would be extremely painful economically and would force up unemployment. Beijing would do all it could to avoid this "solution".
Reposted
Men actually not any lonelier than women, per @stephaniemurray.bsky.social
stephaniehmurray.substack.com/p/the-parado...
stephaniehmurray.substack.com/p/the-parado...
January 21, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Men actually not any lonelier than women, per @stephaniemurray.bsky.social
stephaniehmurray.substack.com/p/the-parado...
stephaniehmurray.substack.com/p/the-parado...
Reposted
Reposted
4/6
To the extent that average wages increase by enough to matter to the economy, these wage increases will cut at the core of what makes Chinese manufacturing so globally competitive, i.e. the low share Chinese households retain of what they produce.
To the extent that average wages increase by enough to matter to the economy, these wage increases will cut at the core of what makes Chinese manufacturing so globally competitive, i.e. the low share Chinese households retain of what they produce.
January 17, 2025 at 4:41 AM
4/6
To the extent that average wages increase by enough to matter to the economy, these wage increases will cut at the core of what makes Chinese manufacturing so globally competitive, i.e. the low share Chinese households retain of what they produce.
To the extent that average wages increase by enough to matter to the economy, these wage increases will cut at the core of what makes Chinese manufacturing so globally competitive, i.e. the low share Chinese households retain of what they produce.
Reposted
1/6
SCMP: "Five provincial-level regions – the provinces of Shanxi and Sichuan, the Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous regions, and the southwestern megacity of Chongqing – increased their minimum wages recently."
sc.mp/wa2vj?utm_so... via @scmpnews
SCMP: "Five provincial-level regions – the provinces of Shanxi and Sichuan, the Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous regions, and the southwestern megacity of Chongqing – increased their minimum wages recently."
sc.mp/wa2vj?utm_so... via @scmpnews
Minimum wages being raised across China in effort to boost spending
Sizeable middle- and low-income groups seen as key to expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic growth.
sc.mp
January 17, 2025 at 4:41 AM
1/6
SCMP: "Five provincial-level regions – the provinces of Shanxi and Sichuan, the Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous regions, and the southwestern megacity of Chongqing – increased their minimum wages recently."
sc.mp/wa2vj?utm_so... via @scmpnews
SCMP: "Five provincial-level regions – the provinces of Shanxi and Sichuan, the Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous regions, and the southwestern megacity of Chongqing – increased their minimum wages recently."
sc.mp/wa2vj?utm_so... via @scmpnews