Tom Hill
@tomhill.bsky.social
Environmental economist | Stoicism | Wildlife Gardening | Deliberative democracy | Aspiring Hiccup | 🏳️🌈 (he/him) |
Reposted by Tom Hill
Feel like I'm going mad. The Budget's 'headroom' is based on frankly irresponsible and wildly optimistic claims about what Labour will do in the final year of the forecast, and on ignoring a bunch of upward pressures on spending, and the claim is that she was being exaggeratedly *pessimistic*?
Suggestion Rachel Reeves exaggerated fiscal pressures is absurd
Chancellor was instead far too optimistic about public finances and government’s ability to secure cuts
www.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Feel like I'm going mad. The Budget's 'headroom' is based on frankly irresponsible and wildly optimistic claims about what Labour will do in the final year of the forecast, and on ignoring a bunch of upward pressures on spending, and the claim is that she was being exaggeratedly *pessimistic*?
Reposted by Tom Hill
I'm hoping to unite Left and Right - they'll all hate my piece in today's Sunday Times, saying that successive Budgets have overtaxed the highest-earning 20%, and under-taxed both the median earner and the richest 0.1%.https://buff.ly/BqRFpJr
November 30, 2025 at 9:34 AM
I'm hoping to unite Left and Right - they'll all hate my piece in today's Sunday Times, saying that successive Budgets have overtaxed the highest-earning 20%, and under-taxed both the median earner and the richest 0.1%.https://buff.ly/BqRFpJr
Boom.💥
Great to see a robust defence of The Republic.
Great to see a robust defence of The Republic.
Earlier this morning, President Trump threatened me and a group of service and veteran Members of Congress with arrest, trial, and death by hanging.
Here’s my response:
Here’s my response:
November 27, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Boom.💥
Great to see a robust defence of The Republic.
Great to see a robust defence of The Republic.
Reposted by Tom Hill
My column in today’s FT: the vision since 2016 has been that the lever British governments pull to fight poverty is to increase the minimum wage. Time for government to start pulling its weight again too:
The minimum wage is not a cure all — we’re asking too much of business
Politicians spend too much time uttering cheap rhetoric about cheap labour
www.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:26 PM
My column in today’s FT: the vision since 2016 has been that the lever British governments pull to fight poverty is to increase the minimum wage. Time for government to start pulling its weight again too:
Reposted by Tom Hill
I’m going to become the joker
November 26, 2025 at 1:01 PM
I’m going to become the joker
It's interesting that a lot of the commentary appears to under pricing the impact of the salary sacrifice change by only factoring in the impact of employee NICs and ignoring employer NICs. The latter are probably much more significant in terms of their cost and impact.
November 26, 2025 at 9:06 PM
It's interesting that a lot of the commentary appears to under pricing the impact of the salary sacrifice change by only factoring in the impact of employee NICs and ignoring employer NICs. The latter are probably much more significant in terms of their cost and impact.
Reposted by Tom Hill
Take pride in our fellow American, Sen. Mark Kelly, vigorously standing up for the Constitution and against a violence-inciting White House occupant who is failing to intimidate this good man and honorable public servant.
Mark Kelly: "My wife, Gabby Giffords, meeting with her constituents, shot in the head. Six people killed around her, a horrific thing. She spent six months in the hospital. We know what political violence is and we know what causes it too, The statements that Donald Trump made incites others."
November 25, 2025 at 3:55 AM
Take pride in our fellow American, Sen. Mark Kelly, vigorously standing up for the Constitution and against a violence-inciting White House occupant who is failing to intimidate this good man and honorable public servant.
Reposted by Tom Hill
Longer assessment here. There are genuine positives to be found. But by christ there's a lot to criticise too.
share.google/FhopmLj9Eaat...
share.google/FhopmLj9Eaat...
Reeves’s pointless, chaotic Budget reveals the cowardice of this government
Rachel Reeves just closes her eyes and hopes for the best, once again
share.google
November 26, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Longer assessment here. There are genuine positives to be found. But by christ there's a lot to criticise too.
share.google/FhopmLj9Eaat...
share.google/FhopmLj9Eaat...
The OBR's commentary on the salary sacrifice changes is interesting:
November 26, 2025 at 2:05 PM
The OBR's commentary on the salary sacrifice changes is interesting:
Such a cool Senator.
WATCH: After six Democratic lawmakers posted a video urging members of the military not to follow illegal orders, Trump erupted online, accusing them of “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!” Sen. Elissa Slotkin, one of the senators in that video, joins Chris Hayes to respond.
'HANG THEM': Trump melts down, accuses six Dems of ‘seditious behavior’
YouTube video by MS NOW
www.youtube.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Such a cool Senator.
Reposted by Tom Hill
It's important to understand what this ad does and why it is so threatening to the Trump admin. It gets to social identity theory, which posits that we have many identities, and the one which is salient in a given context will dictate how we think/behave in a particular situation. 1/
WATCH: After six Democratic lawmakers posted a video urging members of the military not to follow illegal orders, Trump erupted online, accusing them of “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!” Sen. Elissa Slotkin, one of the senators in that video, joins Chris Hayes to respond.
'HANG THEM': Trump melts down, accuses six Dems of ‘seditious behavior’
YouTube video by MS NOW
www.youtube.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:00 AM
It's important to understand what this ad does and why it is so threatening to the Trump admin. It gets to social identity theory, which posits that we have many identities, and the one which is salient in a given context will dictate how we think/behave in a particular situation. 1/
Reposted by Tom Hill
Much enjoyed this conversation with @andyostroy.bsky.social
@theguardian.com columnist, author & podcaster @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social is in THE BACK ROOM discussing his incredible new book on the courageous group of high-society Germans who saved Jews from the Nazis. We also discuss UK politics, Nigel Farage & Reform UK podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/j...
November 20, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Much enjoyed this conversation with @andyostroy.bsky.social
Reposted by Tom Hill
This does feel like a major crossing of the Rubicon – the world's best-funded and in many ways most powerful public health agency is now actively pushing disinformation.
I know there's a *lot* going on to care about at the moment, but this one really is significant, and matters well beyond the US.
I know there's a *lot* going on to care about at the moment, but this one really is significant, and matters well beyond the US.
The CDC website now disseminates disinformation about vaccines, claiming erroneously that infant vaccines might cause autism, when we know conclusively that they do not. It is difficult to overstate just how dangerous this is. www.cdc.gov/vaccine-safe...
November 20, 2025 at 2:03 PM
This does feel like a major crossing of the Rubicon – the world's best-funded and in many ways most powerful public health agency is now actively pushing disinformation.
I know there's a *lot* going on to care about at the moment, but this one really is significant, and matters well beyond the US.
I know there's a *lot* going on to care about at the moment, but this one really is significant, and matters well beyond the US.
Reposted by Tom Hill
A lot of it is stuff Cooper refused to do, which is why she was moved, but yeah the detailed policy work hasn't been done.
November 18, 2025 at 10:27 AM
A lot of it is stuff Cooper refused to do, which is why she was moved, but yeah the detailed policy work hasn't been done.
Reposted by Tom Hill
My pet theory is if they actually gave up on winning and Governed like they at 3.5 years to accomplish everything they ever can in politics that they'd actually be *more* likely to win the next election.
November 15, 2025 at 10:30 AM
My pet theory is if they actually gave up on winning and Governed like they at 3.5 years to accomplish everything they ever can in politics that they'd actually be *more* likely to win the next election.
Reposted by Tom Hill
If I seem disappointed with this government it's not because I think the one before was way better. It wasn't at all good. It's because we need this one to be way better than that one. Because the next one could be way worse
November 15, 2025 at 12:54 PM
If I seem disappointed with this government it's not because I think the one before was way better. It wasn't at all good. It's because we need this one to be way better than that one. Because the next one could be way worse
Reposted by Tom Hill
This is what I think of as the most important chart in British politics. It shows the amount people spend on retail sales and the amount they get. Compared to Feb 2022 people are spending about 16% more but consuming 4% less.
October 28, 2025 at 3:50 PM
This is what I think of as the most important chart in British politics. It shows the amount people spend on retail sales and the amount they get. Compared to Feb 2022 people are spending about 16% more but consuming 4% less.
Reposted by Tom Hill
This is why pushback matters. When forced to actually defend racism they get into a muddle. (See also Tory ILR plans).
Reform are into Day Three of Racismsplaining. It's harder than it looks.
thecritic.co.uk/easy...
thecritic.co.uk/easy...
October 28, 2025 at 7:15 PM
This is why pushback matters. When forced to actually defend racism they get into a muddle. (See also Tory ILR plans).
Reposted by Tom Hill
This is just mind-bendingly wrong-headed. ‘Let’s just adapt, tech will save us’ has always been a reckless strategy, but as evidence mounts that natural carbon sinks are failing it really does start to sink into a form of climate denialism.
www.newsweek.com/bill-gates-d...
www.newsweek.com/bill-gates-d...
Bill Gates Delivers ‘Tough Truths’ on Climate Just Before Big U.N. Talks
Bill Gates argues against focusing on emissions goals in favor of measures of human development.
www.newsweek.com
October 28, 2025 at 5:51 PM
This is just mind-bendingly wrong-headed. ‘Let’s just adapt, tech will save us’ has always been a reckless strategy, but as evidence mounts that natural carbon sinks are failing it really does start to sink into a form of climate denialism.
www.newsweek.com/bill-gates-d...
www.newsweek.com/bill-gates-d...
Really interesting insight. Ironically, there's probably now a stronger case than ever for a sort of One Nation Conservative approach aimed at the young. Socially liberal but less economically progressive/redistributionist.
Nice summary of the fiscal situation in the UK. I’ll add this - over recent elections the pattern between income and vote choice has broken down. Labour, without quite realising it, have become a party whose younger, graduate, professional voters are now the ones paying much higher marginal rates.
Britain has become a country of high taxes for the few and low taxes for the many and that settlement is now breaking down. www.newstatesman.com/politics/mor...
October 28, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Really interesting insight. Ironically, there's probably now a stronger case than ever for a sort of One Nation Conservative approach aimed at the young. Socially liberal but less economically progressive/redistributionist.
Really interesting insight...
Nice summary of the fiscal situation in the UK. I’ll add this - over recent elections the pattern between income and vote choice has broken down. Labour, without quite realising it, have become a party whose younger, graduate, professional voters are now the ones paying much higher marginal rates.
Britain has become a country of high taxes for the few and low taxes for the many and that settlement is now breaking down. www.newstatesman.com/politics/mor...
October 28, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Really interesting insight...
Reposted by Tom Hill
We take no joy criticising a young left-wing UK political figure who has often spoken up for workers' rights and progressive causes. But these barely coherent comments from Zarah Sultana on Ukraine sum up much of what is wrong with her wing of the left www.instagram.com/reel/DQT62ys...
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October 27, 2025 at 4:20 PM
We take no joy criticising a young left-wing UK political figure who has often spoken up for workers' rights and progressive causes. But these barely coherent comments from Zarah Sultana on Ukraine sum up much of what is wrong with her wing of the left www.instagram.com/reel/DQT62ys...
Reposted by Tom Hill
So my daughter is back from Cambridge just for Sunday lunch. She wants a proper roast dinner with roast spuds and Yorkshires. Takes a bit of work on the timing but no problem, we will have a lovely chill time.
I thought. /1
I thought. /1
October 26, 2025 at 3:53 PM
So my daughter is back from Cambridge just for Sunday lunch. She wants a proper roast dinner with roast spuds and Yorkshires. Takes a bit of work on the timing but no problem, we will have a lovely chill time.
I thought. /1
I thought. /1
Reposted by Tom Hill
All to avoid the shame of acknowledging the horrible, psychologically troubling truth. Labour has for a long time been a party of the PMC, by the PMC, for the PMC. It’s just, here’s the thing about the PMC. They are the electoral majority. And they are how Labour won, will win, and can only win. n/n
September 30, 2025 at 7:16 AM
All to avoid the shame of acknowledging the horrible, psychologically troubling truth. Labour has for a long time been a party of the PMC, by the PMC, for the PMC. It’s just, here’s the thing about the PMC. They are the electoral majority. And they are how Labour won, will win, and can only win. n/n
Reposted by Tom Hill
🚨🚨 "Keir Starmer is betting everything on an America that doesn’t exist any more". Great column by @rafaelbehr.bsky.social on the gamble of British foreign policy
September 17, 2025 at 2:10 PM
🚨🚨 "Keir Starmer is betting everything on an America that doesn’t exist any more". Great column by @rafaelbehr.bsky.social on the gamble of British foreign policy