(Ben) 本记明
@ulyssecolonna.bsky.social
Creative speller, fanatical aggadist, I dabble in economics.
Member @tochnyi.bsky.social
Member @tochnyi.bsky.social
Pinned
(Ben) 本记明
@ulyssecolonna.bsky.social
· Jan 19
Hi folks!
And now for @tochnyi.info's (slightly delayed) monthly coverage of the slow-motion crash of Russia's piggy bank, the so-called NWF.
Of course, the decembers numbers were highly expected. Let's see what they reveal.
And now for @tochnyi.info's (slightly delayed) monthly coverage of the slow-motion crash of Russia's piggy bank, the so-called NWF.
Of course, the decembers numbers were highly expected. Let's see what they reveal.
good point
FT reporting on some Chinese company investments in Russian drone makers. Article highlights how tough tracking these corporate structures. The cos already rely extensively on Chinese parts, raising qs (to me) if the stake trading reflects difficulty paying.
www.ft.com/content/e907...
www.ft.com/content/e907...
Chinese parts supplier takes stake in leading Russian drone maker
Tie-up marks new level of co-operation between Moscow and Beijing’s military industrial complexes
www.ft.com
November 30, 2025 at 11:52 PM
good point
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
🧵The Unsustainable Cost of Russia’s Regional Recruitment Model - a new article from Tochnyi’s @Judas-Everett.bsky.social As regional budgets feel the strain, with many having posted significant deficits, the very system the Russian war machine runs on appears to be under threat. 1/11
November 30, 2025 at 3:52 PM
🧵The Unsustainable Cost of Russia’s Regional Recruitment Model - a new article from Tochnyi’s @Judas-Everett.bsky.social As regional budgets feel the strain, with many having posted significant deficits, the very system the Russian war machine runs on appears to be under threat. 1/11
Interesting dilemma for the Russian navy. Until now, tankers could avoid long-distance weapons by leaving the whole Black Sea between them and the Ukrainian coast.
Now that’s not sufficient any longer so two equally unpleasant options:
1) close the southern oils export route and lose billions daily
Now that’s not sufficient any longer so two equally unpleasant options:
1) close the southern oils export route and lose billions daily
🛳️ One of the tankers of the Russian shadow fleet that burned off the coast of Türkiye - “Kairos”. Probably no longer operational.
November 30, 2025 at 11:08 PM
Interesting dilemma for the Russian navy. Until now, tankers could avoid long-distance weapons by leaving the whole Black Sea between them and the Ukrainian coast.
Now that’s not sufficient any longer so two equally unpleasant options:
1) close the southern oils export route and lose billions daily
Now that’s not sufficient any longer so two equally unpleasant options:
1) close the southern oils export route and lose billions daily
Fair amount of pearl-clutching on this matter.
Yes it’s unfortunate but:
1) 🇷🇺 sabotaged the intl solution in 2022
2) 🇷🇺 does not respect many other intl law (killing POWs, bombing civilians, etc)
3) 🇷🇺-aligned actors (Houthis, China, the Trump admin) have repeatedly done the same. Payback time!!!!
Yes it’s unfortunate but:
1) 🇷🇺 sabotaged the intl solution in 2022
2) 🇷🇺 does not respect many other intl law (killing POWs, bombing civilians, etc)
3) 🇷🇺-aligned actors (Houthis, China, the Trump admin) have repeatedly done the same. Payback time!!!!
The oil tanker M/T Mersin is sinking off the coast of Senegal 👀
In August, it visited the Russian port of Taman before heading to Africa, where it later remained idle.
In August, it visited the Russian port of Taman before heading to Africa, where it later remained idle.
November 30, 2025 at 10:56 PM
Fair amount of pearl-clutching on this matter.
Yes it’s unfortunate but:
1) 🇷🇺 sabotaged the intl solution in 2022
2) 🇷🇺 does not respect many other intl law (killing POWs, bombing civilians, etc)
3) 🇷🇺-aligned actors (Houthis, China, the Trump admin) have repeatedly done the same. Payback time!!!!
Yes it’s unfortunate but:
1) 🇷🇺 sabotaged the intl solution in 2022
2) 🇷🇺 does not respect many other intl law (killing POWs, bombing civilians, etc)
3) 🇷🇺-aligned actors (Houthis, China, the Trump admin) have repeatedly done the same. Payback time!!!!
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Here I go again with my message about the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia.
open.substack.com/pub/ireneken...
open.substack.com/pub/ireneken...
Are Sanctions Ineffective?
Look again
open.substack.com
November 30, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Here I go again with my message about the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia.
open.substack.com/pub/ireneken...
open.substack.com/pub/ireneken...
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 24th to the 30th of November.
November 30, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 24th to the 30th of November.
Hi @nickikenyon.bsky.social
Quick question. We’re the Trump administration to lift OFAC sanctions tomorrow:
1) previous example show that sanctions don’t just vanish or can the admin act super decisively to make them truly go away super fast
2) would other sanctions (vs 🇮🇷 and 🇻🇪) still hinder
Quick question. We’re the Trump administration to lift OFAC sanctions tomorrow:
1) previous example show that sanctions don’t just vanish or can the admin act super decisively to make them truly go away super fast
2) would other sanctions (vs 🇮🇷 and 🇻🇪) still hinder
November 30, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Hi @nickikenyon.bsky.social
Quick question. We’re the Trump administration to lift OFAC sanctions tomorrow:
1) previous example show that sanctions don’t just vanish or can the admin act super decisively to make them truly go away super fast
2) would other sanctions (vs 🇮🇷 and 🇻🇪) still hinder
Quick question. We’re the Trump administration to lift OFAC sanctions tomorrow:
1) previous example show that sanctions don’t just vanish or can the admin act super decisively to make them truly go away super fast
2) would other sanctions (vs 🇮🇷 and 🇻🇪) still hinder
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
The owner of a major 🇨🇳 drone parts supplier has taken a stake in Rustakt, a leading 🇷🇺 manufacturer of the VT-40 FPV drone widely used by 🇷🇺 against Ukraine.
This new tie-up marks a previously unknown level of cooperation between a 🇨🇳 company and a 🇷🇺 military supplier.
www.ft.com/content/e907...
This new tie-up marks a previously unknown level of cooperation between a 🇨🇳 company and a 🇷🇺 military supplier.
www.ft.com/content/e907...
Chinese parts supplier takes stake in leading Russian drone maker
Tie-up marks new level of co-operation between Moscow and Beijing’s military industrial complexes
www.ft.com
November 29, 2025 at 11:02 PM
The owner of a major 🇨🇳 drone parts supplier has taken a stake in Rustakt, a leading 🇷🇺 manufacturer of the VT-40 FPV drone widely used by 🇷🇺 against Ukraine.
This new tie-up marks a previously unknown level of cooperation between a 🇨🇳 company and a 🇷🇺 military supplier.
www.ft.com/content/e907...
This new tie-up marks a previously unknown level of cooperation between a 🇨🇳 company and a 🇷🇺 military supplier.
www.ft.com/content/e907...
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Russian Railways “on brink of collapse,” with debt of 4 trillion rubles. Russian government scrambling to rescue it from insolvency. It employs 700,000 people.
Why is Trump hitching his wagon to this obviously dying country?
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
Why is Trump hitching his wagon to this obviously dying country?
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
November 29, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Russian Railways “on brink of collapse,” with debt of 4 trillion rubles. Russian government scrambling to rescue it from insolvency. It employs 700,000 people.
Why is Trump hitching his wagon to this obviously dying country?
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
Why is Trump hitching his wagon to this obviously dying country?
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
This was always the deal. It had nothing to do with American interests, let alone democracy.
It had everything to do with obliging Russian imperialism, so that American oligarchs could get paid. Sacrificing Ukraine for profit.
Bottomless corruption, making the world safe for dictatorship.
It had everything to do with obliging Russian imperialism, so that American oligarchs could get paid. Sacrificing Ukraine for profit.
Bottomless corruption, making the world safe for dictatorship.
"By dangling multibillion-dollar rare-earth and energy deals, Moscow could reshape the economic map of Europe—while driving a wedge between America and its traditional allies"
Read this excellent @wsj.com account of the business deals behind the "peace"negotiations
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Read this excellent @wsj.com account of the business deals behind the "peace"negotiations
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Make Money Not War: Trump’s Real Plan for Peace in Ukraine
The Kremlin pitched the White House on peace through business. To Europe’s dismay, the president and his envoy are on board.
www.wsj.com
November 29, 2025 at 4:05 PM
This was always the deal. It had nothing to do with American interests, let alone democracy.
It had everything to do with obliging Russian imperialism, so that American oligarchs could get paid. Sacrificing Ukraine for profit.
Bottomless corruption, making the world safe for dictatorship.
It had everything to do with obliging Russian imperialism, so that American oligarchs could get paid. Sacrificing Ukraine for profit.
Bottomless corruption, making the world safe for dictatorship.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Andriy Yermak has resigned!! 🎉 🎉
I’ve been waiting over 5 years for this! Traitor. Corruption is akin to treason while Ukraine is at war.
I’ve been waiting over 5 years for this! Traitor. Corruption is akin to treason while Ukraine is at war.
Happy Thanksgiving and Black Friday!! A lot happened over the holiday break. Russia’s space program is caput thanks to a massive explosion, and Yermak’s home was raided by Ukraine’s anti-corruption agency.
www.wsj.com/world/pressu...
www.wsj.com/world/pressu...
Pressure Mounts on Zelensky as Investigators Search Home of Right-Hand Man
Authorities target Andriy Yermak at a moment when Ukraine’s president needs his experience dealing with Trump.
www.wsj.com
November 28, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Andriy Yermak has resigned!! 🎉 🎉
I’ve been waiting over 5 years for this! Traitor. Corruption is akin to treason while Ukraine is at war.
I’ve been waiting over 5 years for this! Traitor. Corruption is akin to treason while Ukraine is at war.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
HM Treasury sanctioned dark fleet tanker KAIROS may sink in Black Sea after mysterious engine room explosion. Turkish Coastal Safety tugs and nearby vessel are assisting. Dark fleet tanker VIRAT also might be in distress. Another mystery is how deregistered Gambia flagged tankers transit Bosphorus.
November 28, 2025 at 5:13 PM
HM Treasury sanctioned dark fleet tanker KAIROS may sink in Black Sea after mysterious engine room explosion. Turkish Coastal Safety tugs and nearby vessel are assisting. Dark fleet tanker VIRAT also might be in distress. Another mystery is how deregistered Gambia flagged tankers transit Bosphorus.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
US claims over Russian frozen assets amount to just US$5bn, or 1.5% of global total
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
November 27, 2025 at 11:00 AM
US claims over Russian frozen assets amount to just US$5bn, or 1.5% of global total
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
‘The guerillas are everywhere’: Mogadishu prepares to fall to Islamist insurgents | The Observer
observer.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Can’t lie… I’m tempted.
November 27, 2025 at 12:53 AM
Can’t lie… I’m tempted.
“You’re so handsome in this new costume. You look like a paralegal.”
What is the best compliment you ever received? Putting aside whether or not you believed it.
November 26, 2025 at 6:43 PM
“You’re so handsome in this new costume. You look like a paralegal.”
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
The Expanding Shadow Fleet Poses a Growing Threat to Maritime Safety
⚓️ The only shadows at sea 🌊 come from the ships 🚢
www.marinelink.com/news/expandi...
⚓️ The only shadows at sea 🌊 come from the ships 🚢
www.marinelink.com/news/expandi...
The Expanding Shadow Fleet Poses a Growing Threat to Maritime Safety
The shipping industry has always been good at navigating uncertainty; however the rapid expansion of the shadow fleet represents a different kind of risk.
www.marinelink.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:33 PM
The Expanding Shadow Fleet Poses a Growing Threat to Maritime Safety
⚓️ The only shadows at sea 🌊 come from the ships 🚢
www.marinelink.com/news/expandi...
⚓️ The only shadows at sea 🌊 come from the ships 🚢
www.marinelink.com/news/expandi...
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Knock on wood - but the Baltic Sea hasn't had any cable/pipeline incidents lately.
More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)
More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)
November 26, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Knock on wood - but the Baltic Sea hasn't had any cable/pipeline incidents lately.
More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)
More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
I feel you, ancient Mongolian ceramic hedgehog. I feel you.
November 26, 2025 at 10:17 AM
I feel you, ancient Mongolian ceramic hedgehog. I feel you.
Bon débarras
France has arrested "activists" on suspicion of working for russian special services.
One of those arrested is Anna Novikova – an organizer of rallies against support for Ukraine, "humanitarian convoys" to Donbas, and a participant in russian propaganda talk shows. #visaban
One of those arrested is Anna Novikova – an organizer of rallies against support for Ukraine, "humanitarian convoys" to Donbas, and a participant in russian propaganda talk shows. #visaban
November 26, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Bon débarras
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Witkoff is not an useful idiot. He is a traitor. Plain and simple: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Witkoff Advised Russia on How to Pitch Ukraine Plan to Trump
US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, fresh from the triumph of the Gaza peace deal, held a phone call last month with a senior Kremlin official to suggest they work together on a similar plan for Ukra...
www.bloomberg.com
November 26, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Witkoff is not an useful idiot. He is a traitor. Plain and simple: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
November 25, 2025 at 7:25 AM
While there is no doubt that the Russian peace plan is a disgusting piece of botched diplomacy, I’m of the opinion that Kyiv should sign it. Why? Glad you ask. Here are 5️⃣ reasons:
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Updated peace plan could be a deal Ukraine will take - eventually - BBC News
The proposed plan is said to have been significantly changed since Sunday - but key sticking points are likely to remain.
www.bbc.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:11 AM
While there is no doubt that the Russian peace plan is a disgusting piece of botched diplomacy, I’m of the opinion that Kyiv should sign it. Why? Glad you ask. Here are 5️⃣ reasons:
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
It has begun, UAZ canceled the camping version of the Bukhanka. Supposedly they will return to building it in February 2026 when parts are again available but for a while there's been talk of a possible full cancellation of the Bukhanka as a whole.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8229413
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8229413
November 24, 2025 at 4:10 PM
It has begun, UAZ canceled the camping version of the Bukhanka. Supposedly they will return to building it in February 2026 when parts are again available but for a while there's been talk of a possible full cancellation of the Bukhanka as a whole.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8229413
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8229413
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
A great article from The Bell about OFZs, printing money, defaults, and what options Russia has left for financing the war.
thebell.io/zhizn-vzaymy...
thebell.io/zhizn-vzaymy...
Жизнь взаймы. Как Россия влезает в долги ради продолжения войны и какие у этого будут последствия
Война и связанные с нею высокие бюджетные расходы вынуждают Россию все больше занимать. Почти весь дефицит бюджета на следующ
thebell.io
November 24, 2025 at 5:48 AM
A great article from The Bell about OFZs, printing money, defaults, and what options Russia has left for financing the war.
thebell.io/zhizn-vzaymy...
thebell.io/zhizn-vzaymy...