Adam Smith
@aipsmith.bsky.social
2.5K followers 1.4K following 53 posts
Professor of US Political History at Oxford. Director of the Rothermere American Institute. Research conservatism, parties, Civil War. Host of The Last Best Hope? Podcast.
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aipsmith.bsky.social
This is great stuff.
lewisbaston.bsky.social
I've written a little essay - my first productivity for a while, so be gentle - about 'bellwether' UK constituencies. Where is the best bellwether? You WILL be surprised. open.substack.com/pub/lewisbas...
Bellwethers
Which constituencies go most consistently with the national tide?
open.substack.com
Reposted by Adam Smith
orkneylibrary.bsky.social
Today is the 81st anniversary of #DDay. This is issue 178 of The Orkney Blast, published on 9th June 1944 just 3 days after the Allied invasion of Europe. The weekly paper ran for 202 issues from 1941 to 1944, for the thousands of armed services personnel based here during WW2.
The front cover of The Orkney Blast newspaper which was an armed forces paper published in Orkney during World War Two. The main headline reads This Is The Invasion and it was published just after D-Day in 1944
aipsmith.bsky.social
I am so old that my PhD was funded by a direct application by me to the British Academy for a doctoral award, which allowed me to hilariously claim that I was an “Academy Award Winner”.
aipsmith.bsky.social
It’s such an extraordinarily awful decision. Throughout my career every time the PhD funding landscape has changed I’ve thought they’d discovered the worst possible model but each time they manage to invent something even more destructive. I can’t even begin to imagine how the AHRC can defend it.
Reposted by Adam Smith
jackjenkins.me
BREAKING: The Episcopal Church has announced it will end its decades-old partnership with the government to resettle refugees, citing moral opposition to resettling white Afrikaners from South Africa who have been classified as refugees by the Trump admin. religionnews.com/2025/05/12/e...
Episcopal Church refuses to resettle white Afrikaners, ends partnership with US government
(RNS) — In light of our church’s steadfast commitment to racial justice and reconciliation and our historic ties with the Anglican Church of Southern Africa, we are not able to take this step,' the pr...
religionnews.com
aipsmith.bsky.social
Great thread, Rob. Brilliantly put. And All so very true.
Reposted by Adam Smith
robertsaunders.bsky.social
"Democracy is a conversation, not a proclamation".

A thread on the rise of "authoritarian democracy": what it is, why it's dangerous and why we need to rebuild the case for "liberal democracy". ⬇️
robertsaunders.bsky.social
A core feature of the Trump regime is its embrace of "authoritarian democracy", as a battering ram with which to demolish any obstacle to its power.

The very notion of "authoritarian democracy" can sound contradictory.

But it's an old & dangerous idea, that needs to be better understood. [THREAD]
thebulwark.com
Stephen Miller on the court order to release Tufts student Rümeysa Öztürk: "There's a judicial coup in this country....This judicial coup by a handful of Marxist judges...can only be understood as an attack on democracy."
Reposted by Adam Smith
caitlindeangelis.bsky.social
If I were JD Vance, I would consider whether God is perhaps sending me some fairly specific messages
Reposted by Adam Smith
reichlinmelnick.bsky.social
The new Pope didn't tweet once in 2024. In 2025, he's posted 5 times, in which he:

- Criticized JD Vance's views on Catholicism and Jesus
- Posted an article opposing Trump's immigration policies
- Retweeted twice about the Pope's health
- Retweeted a criticism of Trump & Bukele's laughter at KAG.
Robert Prevost reposted
Rocco Palmo
@roccopalmo
·
Apr 14
As Trump & Bukele use Oval to 🤣 Feds’ illicit deportation of a US resident (https://bit.ly/3ROMjnP), once an undoc-ed Salvadorean himself, now-DC Aux +Evelio asks, “Do you not see the suffering? Is your conscience not disturbed? How can you stay quiet?” https://bit.ly/4j700KN

Robert Prevost reposted
Synod.va
@Synod_va
·
Feb 25
We continue praying together the Holy Rosary for the health of #PopeFrancis  this evening at 9 PM in St. Peter’s Square, The prayer today will be presided over by His Eminence Cardinal Louis Antonio Tagle, Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization. #pope #PopeFrancis
Robert Prevost reposted
Synod.va
@Synod_va
·
Feb 15
#PrayForThePope #GoodNews: The Holy See Press Office has announced that Pope Francis' health is improving. Let us pray together for his full recovery 
@franciscus
  Be strong, We are looking forward to seeing you again soon at St. Peter's Square.
#WeLoveOurPope 
Robert Prevost
@drprevost
·
Feb 13
Pope Francis’ letter, JD Vance’s ‘ordo amoris’ and what the Gospel asks of all of us on immigration
From americamagazine.org
Robert Prevost
@drprevost
·
Feb 3
JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn't ask us to rank our love for others https://ncronline.org/node/292716 via 
@NCRonline
Reposted by Adam Smith
ccjones.bsky.social
This comment from Robert Barron, appointed last week to Trump’s WH commission on religious liberty, was spot on, only he didn’t realize it.
aipsmith.bsky.social
I want the BBC commentary to tell us about the various marching bands and military style parades. Where are they all from? What’s their function? Who can tell us?
Reposted by Adam Smith
stephenkb.bsky.social
Others being do most Labour-Liberal-Democrat-Green voters continue to go 'yeah, I'll vote for one of the three?' - a strategic advantage that Labour's 'what are the focus groups screaming about today?' threatens to undermine, who leads on best PM (currently a big Starmer advantage).
Reposted by Adam Smith
samfr.bsky.social
A question that I haven't heard a good answer to: if cutting migration by a third in a year hasn't changed the narrative on it at all - what would make you think cutting it by another third (or half] would?
sundersays.bsky.social
Immigration fell by a third in the 9 months after General Election. (From 1.2m visas to 800k in year to March 2025). The new lower headline migration figure (the 12 months of 2024) will come out 10 days after the white paper. Saying net migration is 700k (last stat: year to June 2024) is out of date
aipsmith.bsky.social
Why on earth is it possible for German MPs to vote anonymously?
jonworth.eu
All right, next round to elect Merz (or not) scheduled for c. 15:15 www.tagesschau.de/inland/innen...

That they've managed to find a way to bring this forward makes me think they will also get the 316 votes this time too

And Merz will begin his Chancellorship with a bloody nose later on
Was bedeutet die Nichtwahl von Friedrich Merz?
Friedrich Merz hat bei der Wahl zum Bundeskanzler im ersten Durchgang nicht die erforderliche Mehrheit bekommen. Wie geht es nun weiter? Und was passiert bei einem erneuten Scheitern? Von Frank Bräuti...
www.tagesschau.de
Reposted by Adam Smith
johnpfaff.bsky.social
Hey! Press covering Trump!

The statute that lets him impose tariffs at will? It EXPLICITLY excludes movies.

He has no authority to do this. Not just bc of an absence of authorization, but bc the law says “you CANNOT do this.”

Do NOT say “Trump has imposed movie tariffs,” bc he did not. He CANNOT.
Reposted by Adam Smith
Reposted by Adam Smith
samfr.bsky.social
The irony is the revolution against technocrats will end with officials running the councils because Reform councillors will have no idea what to do + many don't even want to be doing it.
jimbobuk.bsky.social
@vicderbyshire.bsky.social @chadbourn.bsky.social

Winning reform candidates in emotional meltdown post count in #rugby #warwickshire
aipsmith.bsky.social
Opposition leader Peter Dutton predicted to lose his seat in Dickson by the great ABC election analyst Anthony Green..
Reposted by Adam Smith
robfordmancs.bsky.social
An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils:

Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
aipsmith.bsky.social
mark-carney.bsky.social
Later this month, Canada will have the privilege of welcoming Their Majesties The King and Queen to Canada — where His Majesty King Charles III will deliver Canada’s speech from the throne.

This historic honour matches the weight of our times.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has an audience with His Majesty King Charles III at Buckingham Palace in London.
Reposted by Adam Smith
dylandifford.bsky.social
The 'it's a 1979-83 redux' fans will be delighted to know that Labour losses as a % of contests (-12pts) is the same as the Tories' losses in the 1980 locals (-12pts).

However, Thatcher's losses represented 28% of her defences, Starmer's represent 67% of the seats Labour were defending.
Reposted by Adam Smith
charlotte2153.bsky.social
You can track most of the problems the country has to the fact that local government is woefully underfunded for what it is expected to deliver. Cutting it further is very much not the route to improving people's circumstances, & I hope Reform will quickly realise this in the areas they now control.
liamthorp.bsky.social
As if we needed more evidence that Farage et al are divorced from reality - their big idea is to cut spending from local government, which has suffered more in spending cuts than pretty much any other sector over the past decade
Reposted by Adam Smith
peterwalker99.bsky.social
I think one of the key political tests for Reform councils is how much voters enjoy seeing politicians punching down. Because that's what banning equalities initiatives and home working often does. My sense is the appetite for it in the UK might be less than in the US.
Reposted by Adam Smith
stephenkb.bsky.social
UK I think actually has a remarkably high birth rate, given it has been government policy for eight years that having children above replacement rate is extravagant, we heavily ration IVF and we have a housing shortage.