Adam Smith
@aipsmith.bsky.social
Professor of US Political History at Oxford. Director of the Rothermere American Institute. Research conservatism, parties, Civil War. Host of The Last Best Hope? Podcast.
This is great stuff.
I've written a little essay - my first productivity for a while, so be gentle - about 'bellwether' UK constituencies. Where is the best bellwether? You WILL be surprised. open.substack.com/pub/lewisbas...
Bellwethers
Which constituencies go most consistently with the national tide?
open.substack.com
June 23, 2025 at 3:45 PM
This is great stuff.
Reposted by Adam Smith
Today is the 81st anniversary of #DDay. This is issue 178 of The Orkney Blast, published on 9th June 1944 just 3 days after the Allied invasion of Europe. The weekly paper ran for 202 issues from 1941 to 1944, for the thousands of armed services personnel based here during WW2.
June 6, 2025 at 10:05 AM
Today is the 81st anniversary of #DDay. This is issue 178 of The Orkney Blast, published on 9th June 1944 just 3 days after the Allied invasion of Europe. The weekly paper ran for 202 issues from 1941 to 1944, for the thousands of armed services personnel based here during WW2.
Reposted by Adam Smith
BREAKING: The Episcopal Church has announced it will end its decades-old partnership with the government to resettle refugees, citing moral opposition to resettling white Afrikaners from South Africa who have been classified as refugees by the Trump admin. religionnews.com/2025/05/12/e...
Episcopal Church refuses to resettle white Afrikaners, ends partnership with US government
(RNS) — In light of our church’s steadfast commitment to racial justice and reconciliation and our historic ties with the Anglican Church of Southern Africa, we are not able to take this step,' the pr...
religionnews.com
May 12, 2025 at 4:13 PM
BREAKING: The Episcopal Church has announced it will end its decades-old partnership with the government to resettle refugees, citing moral opposition to resettling white Afrikaners from South Africa who have been classified as refugees by the Trump admin. religionnews.com/2025/05/12/e...
Reposted by Adam Smith
"Democracy is a conversation, not a proclamation".
A thread on the rise of "authoritarian democracy": what it is, why it's dangerous and why we need to rebuild the case for "liberal democracy". ⬇️
A thread on the rise of "authoritarian democracy": what it is, why it's dangerous and why we need to rebuild the case for "liberal democracy". ⬇️
A core feature of the Trump regime is its embrace of "authoritarian democracy", as a battering ram with which to demolish any obstacle to its power.
The very notion of "authoritarian democracy" can sound contradictory.
But it's an old & dangerous idea, that needs to be better understood. [THREAD]
The very notion of "authoritarian democracy" can sound contradictory.
But it's an old & dangerous idea, that needs to be better understood. [THREAD]
Stephen Miller on the court order to release Tufts student Rümeysa Öztürk: "There's a judicial coup in this country....This judicial coup by a handful of Marxist judges...can only be understood as an attack on democracy."
May 12, 2025 at 7:29 AM
"Democracy is a conversation, not a proclamation".
A thread on the rise of "authoritarian democracy": what it is, why it's dangerous and why we need to rebuild the case for "liberal democracy". ⬇️
A thread on the rise of "authoritarian democracy": what it is, why it's dangerous and why we need to rebuild the case for "liberal democracy". ⬇️
Reposted by Adam Smith
If I were JD Vance, I would consider whether God is perhaps sending me some fairly specific messages
May 8, 2025 at 6:25 PM
If I were JD Vance, I would consider whether God is perhaps sending me some fairly specific messages
Reposted by Adam Smith
The new Pope didn't tweet once in 2024. In 2025, he's posted 5 times, in which he:
- Criticized JD Vance's views on Catholicism and Jesus
- Posted an article opposing Trump's immigration policies
- Retweeted twice about the Pope's health
- Retweeted a criticism of Trump & Bukele's laughter at KAG.
- Criticized JD Vance's views on Catholicism and Jesus
- Posted an article opposing Trump's immigration policies
- Retweeted twice about the Pope's health
- Retweeted a criticism of Trump & Bukele's laughter at KAG.
May 8, 2025 at 5:34 PM
The new Pope didn't tweet once in 2024. In 2025, he's posted 5 times, in which he:
- Criticized JD Vance's views on Catholicism and Jesus
- Posted an article opposing Trump's immigration policies
- Retweeted twice about the Pope's health
- Retweeted a criticism of Trump & Bukele's laughter at KAG.
- Criticized JD Vance's views on Catholicism and Jesus
- Posted an article opposing Trump's immigration policies
- Retweeted twice about the Pope's health
- Retweeted a criticism of Trump & Bukele's laughter at KAG.
Reposted by Adam Smith
This comment from Robert Barron, appointed last week to Trump’s WH commission on religious liberty, was spot on, only he didn’t realize it.
May 8, 2025 at 5:24 PM
This comment from Robert Barron, appointed last week to Trump’s WH commission on religious liberty, was spot on, only he didn’t realize it.
I want the BBC commentary to tell us about the various marching bands and military style parades. Where are they all from? What’s their function? Who can tell us?
May 8, 2025 at 4:47 PM
I want the BBC commentary to tell us about the various marching bands and military style parades. Where are they all from? What’s their function? Who can tell us?
Reposted by Adam Smith
Others being do most Labour-Liberal-Democrat-Green voters continue to go 'yeah, I'll vote for one of the three?' - a strategic advantage that Labour's 'what are the focus groups screaming about today?' threatens to undermine, who leads on best PM (currently a big Starmer advantage).
May 8, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Others being do most Labour-Liberal-Democrat-Green voters continue to go 'yeah, I'll vote for one of the three?' - a strategic advantage that Labour's 'what are the focus groups screaming about today?' threatens to undermine, who leads on best PM (currently a big Starmer advantage).
Reposted by Adam Smith
A question that I haven't heard a good answer to: if cutting migration by a third in a year hasn't changed the narrative on it at all - what would make you think cutting it by another third (or half] would?
Immigration fell by a third in the 9 months after General Election. (From 1.2m visas to 800k in year to March 2025). The new lower headline migration figure (the 12 months of 2024) will come out 10 days after the white paper. Saying net migration is 700k (last stat: year to June 2024) is out of date
May 6, 2025 at 1:28 PM
A question that I haven't heard a good answer to: if cutting migration by a third in a year hasn't changed the narrative on it at all - what would make you think cutting it by another third (or half] would?
Why on earth is it possible for German MPs to vote anonymously?
All right, next round to elect Merz (or not) scheduled for c. 15:15 www.tagesschau.de/inland/innen...
That they've managed to find a way to bring this forward makes me think they will also get the 316 votes this time too
And Merz will begin his Chancellorship with a bloody nose later on
That they've managed to find a way to bring this forward makes me think they will also get the 316 votes this time too
And Merz will begin his Chancellorship with a bloody nose later on
Was bedeutet die Nichtwahl von Friedrich Merz?
Friedrich Merz hat bei der Wahl zum Bundeskanzler im ersten Durchgang nicht die erforderliche Mehrheit bekommen. Wie geht es nun weiter? Und was passiert bei einem erneuten Scheitern? Von Frank Bräuti...
www.tagesschau.de
May 6, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Why on earth is it possible for German MPs to vote anonymously?
Reposted by Adam Smith
Hey! Press covering Trump!
The statute that lets him impose tariffs at will? It EXPLICITLY excludes movies.
He has no authority to do this. Not just bc of an absence of authorization, but bc the law says “you CANNOT do this.”
Do NOT say “Trump has imposed movie tariffs,” bc he did not. He CANNOT.
The statute that lets him impose tariffs at will? It EXPLICITLY excludes movies.
He has no authority to do this. Not just bc of an absence of authorization, but bc the law says “you CANNOT do this.”
Do NOT say “Trump has imposed movie tariffs,” bc he did not. He CANNOT.
May 5, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Hey! Press covering Trump!
The statute that lets him impose tariffs at will? It EXPLICITLY excludes movies.
He has no authority to do this. Not just bc of an absence of authorization, but bc the law says “you CANNOT do this.”
Do NOT say “Trump has imposed movie tariffs,” bc he did not. He CANNOT.
The statute that lets him impose tariffs at will? It EXPLICITLY excludes movies.
He has no authority to do this. Not just bc of an absence of authorization, but bc the law says “you CANNOT do this.”
Do NOT say “Trump has imposed movie tariffs,” bc he did not. He CANNOT.
Reposted by Adam Smith
weapons-grade morons
May 3, 2025 at 3:27 PM
weapons-grade morons
Reposted by Adam Smith
The irony is the revolution against technocrats will end with officials running the councils because Reform councillors will have no idea what to do + many don't even want to be doing it.
@vicderbyshire.bsky.social @chadbourn.bsky.social
Winning reform candidates in emotional meltdown post count in #rugby #warwickshire
Winning reform candidates in emotional meltdown post count in #rugby #warwickshire
May 3, 2025 at 1:53 PM
The irony is the revolution against technocrats will end with officials running the councils because Reform councillors will have no idea what to do + many don't even want to be doing it.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton predicted to lose his seat in Dickson by the great ABC election analyst Anthony Green..
May 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Opposition leader Peter Dutton predicted to lose his seat in Dickson by the great ABC election analyst Anthony Green..
Reposted by Adam Smith
An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils:
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
May 2, 2025 at 5:07 PM
An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils:
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
Later this month, Canada will have the privilege of welcoming Their Majesties The King and Queen to Canada — where His Majesty King Charles III will deliver Canada’s speech from the throne.
This historic honour matches the weight of our times.
This historic honour matches the weight of our times.
May 2, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Reposted by Adam Smith
The 'it's a 1979-83 redux' fans will be delighted to know that Labour losses as a % of contests (-12pts) is the same as the Tories' losses in the 1980 locals (-12pts).
However, Thatcher's losses represented 28% of her defences, Starmer's represent 67% of the seats Labour were defending.
However, Thatcher's losses represented 28% of her defences, Starmer's represent 67% of the seats Labour were defending.
May 2, 2025 at 5:05 PM
The 'it's a 1979-83 redux' fans will be delighted to know that Labour losses as a % of contests (-12pts) is the same as the Tories' losses in the 1980 locals (-12pts).
However, Thatcher's losses represented 28% of her defences, Starmer's represent 67% of the seats Labour were defending.
However, Thatcher's losses represented 28% of her defences, Starmer's represent 67% of the seats Labour were defending.
Reposted by Adam Smith
You can track most of the problems the country has to the fact that local government is woefully underfunded for what it is expected to deliver. Cutting it further is very much not the route to improving people's circumstances, & I hope Reform will quickly realise this in the areas they now control.
As if we needed more evidence that Farage et al are divorced from reality - their big idea is to cut spending from local government, which has suffered more in spending cuts than pretty much any other sector over the past decade
May 2, 2025 at 5:21 PM
You can track most of the problems the country has to the fact that local government is woefully underfunded for what it is expected to deliver. Cutting it further is very much not the route to improving people's circumstances, & I hope Reform will quickly realise this in the areas they now control.
Reposted by Adam Smith
I think one of the key political tests for Reform councils is how much voters enjoy seeing politicians punching down. Because that's what banning equalities initiatives and home working often does. My sense is the appetite for it in the UK might be less than in the US.
May 2, 2025 at 5:19 PM
I think one of the key political tests for Reform councils is how much voters enjoy seeing politicians punching down. Because that's what banning equalities initiatives and home working often does. My sense is the appetite for it in the UK might be less than in the US.
Reposted by Adam Smith
UK I think actually has a remarkably high birth rate, given it has been government policy for eight years that having children above replacement rate is extravagant, we heavily ration IVF and we have a housing shortage.
April 29, 2025 at 9:29 AM
UK I think actually has a remarkably high birth rate, given it has been government policy for eight years that having children above replacement rate is extravagant, we heavily ration IVF and we have a housing shortage.
Reposted by Adam Smith
It's quite good fun that the Quebec nationalists suffered because lots of people across Canada behaved in a really French way.
April 29, 2025 at 7:52 AM
It's quite good fun that the Quebec nationalists suffered because lots of people across Canada behaved in a really French way.
Reposted by Adam Smith
3000+ vote lead with 10 polls to go?
Yeah I think we can call this one folks
Yeah I think we can call this one folks
April 29, 2025 at 7:33 AM
3000+ vote lead with 10 polls to go?
Yeah I think we can call this one folks
Yeah I think we can call this one folks
Reposted by Adam Smith
