Matthew Shugart
@laderafrutal.bsky.social
Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science, UC Davis. Researching electoral systems, parties, legislatures. 🍑🍊🌻 Orchardist. 🇺🇸 🇮🇱🇺🇦🇹🇼🇰🇷 Zionist and small-d democrat. Blog/links to pubs: fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Yep, it's very real. People who don't realize I'm Jewish have said all kinds of bizarre things to me. One recently "confided" in me his theory that the Jews killed JFK to prevent him from stopping the building of the Dimona nuclear program in Israel.
No, America's rising anti-Semitism is not an online illusion created by foreign-run social media accounts on X. I wrote about how this comforting fiction is contradicted by real world events and survey data. Foreigners can fan the flames, but they didn't start the fire. We did. Gift link:
People Are Underestimating America’s Groyper Problem
Rising American anti-Semitism isn’t a foreign influence operation.
www.theatlantic.com
November 26, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Yep, it's very real. People who don't realize I'm Jewish have said all kinds of bizarre things to me. One recently "confided" in me his theory that the Jews killed JFK to prevent him from stopping the building of the Dimona nuclear program in Israel.
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
This isn't a foreign psy-op, and it's not the product of social media bots. It's a homegrown menace, and it's getting worse. www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
November 26, 2025 at 3:16 PM
This isn't a foreign psy-op, and it's not the product of social media bots. It's a homegrown menace, and it's getting worse. www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
Comparative politics question of the day: Is there another country where ministers lead protest rallies outside meetings of the cabinet of which they are a part?
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
Coalition minister, MK lead protest outside cabinet meeting, calling for West Bank annexation
* * *
www.timesofisrael.com
November 23, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Comparative politics question of the day: Is there another country where ministers lead protest rallies outside meetings of the cabinet of which they are a part?
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
I’m endlessly fascinated by the things legislators do. And by California’s stupid electoral system. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2025/11/19/a...
A short bill, climate smart agriculture, Burt Lancaster, Diwali, and top-two elections
In the process of some research on bills in the California legislature related to climate change impacts on the state’s agricultural sector, I ran across this one. “It is the intent of …
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:36 PM
I’m endlessly fascinated by the things legislators do. And by California’s stupid electoral system. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2025/11/19/a...
This is entirely what we should expect given the very recent (and not so recent) history. And it’s also important to recognize that no matter what “the rest of the world” might want, Israeli public opinion has a veto here. Those who want the prospects for “peace” to improve need to grapple with that
62% of Israelis, and 73%(!) of Jewish Israelis, said they'd oppose Palestinian statehood, even if it's coupled with normalization with Saudi Arabia.
The Israeli public (not just government) and the rest of the world seem to be moving in 2 very opposite directions. www.jpost.com/israel-news/...
The Israeli public (not just government) and the rest of the world seem to be moving in 2 very opposite directions. www.jpost.com/israel-news/...
Israeli poll shows strong opposition to Palestinian state | The Jerusalem Post
Among Jewish Israelis, opposition is even higher at 79%, up from 76% in the previous JCFA poll. This marks the highest level of Jewish-Israeli opposition in its tracking since the war began.
www.jpost.com
November 19, 2025 at 9:26 PM
This is entirely what we should expect given the very recent (and not so recent) history. And it’s also important to recognize that no matter what “the rest of the world” might want, Israeli public opinion has a veto here. Those who want the prospects for “peace” to improve need to grapple with that
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
One of the President's top advisers: reminding the military and the intelligence community to follow the law and the Constitution is "calling for insurrection"
November 19, 2025 at 3:12 AM
One of the President's top advisers: reminding the military and the intelligence community to follow the law and the Constitution is "calling for insurrection"
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
The media reaction to Joe Biden not doing enough press conferences was orders of magnitude stronger & more negative to what Trump does on a daily basis to denigrate & threaten freedom of the press. Two wildly different standards. Happy week everyone.
November 18, 2025 at 6:58 PM
The media reaction to Joe Biden not doing enough press conferences was orders of magnitude stronger & more negative to what Trump does on a daily basis to denigrate & threaten freedom of the press. Two wildly different standards. Happy week everyone.
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Happy to learn I received the Michael Wallerstein prize in political economy for this article on the political consequences of technological change in agriculture in the US: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Explaining Rural Conservatism: Political Consequences of Technological Change in the Great Plains | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Explaining Rural Conservatism: Political Consequences of Technological Change in the Great Plains - Volume 119 Issue 1
www.cambridge.org
November 16, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Happy to learn I received the Michael Wallerstein prize in political economy for this article on the political consequences of technological change in agriculture in the US: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
November 10, 2025 at 12:34 AM
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
John K. and I summarized political science on the fragmentation myth here: manhattan.institute/article/refo...
MSS, ML, and I reflected on the presidentialism issue here: protectdemocracy.org/work/toward-...
MSS, ML, and I reflected on the presidentialism issue here: protectdemocracy.org/work/toward-...
November 7, 2025 at 8:07 PM
John K. and I summarized political science on the fragmentation myth here: manhattan.institute/article/refo...
MSS, ML, and I reflected on the presidentialism issue here: protectdemocracy.org/work/toward-...
MSS, ML, and I reflected on the presidentialism issue here: protectdemocracy.org/work/toward-...
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
With PR in the discourse again, we’re likely to hear things about incompatibility with presidentialism and a tendency to produce fragmentation.
These views tend to come from a certain corner of American Politics. I reflected on that dynamic last month: open.substack.com/pub/jacksant...
1/2
These views tend to come from a certain corner of American Politics. I reflected on that dynamic last month: open.substack.com/pub/jacksant...
1/2
November 7, 2025 at 8:05 PM
With PR in the discourse again, we’re likely to hear things about incompatibility with presidentialism and a tendency to produce fragmentation.
These views tend to come from a certain corner of American Politics. I reflected on that dynamic last month: open.substack.com/pub/jacksant...
1/2
These views tend to come from a certain corner of American Politics. I reflected on that dynamic last month: open.substack.com/pub/jacksant...
1/2
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
NEW: How did Tuesday's elections affect how you vote, and the rules of democracy?
You know about Prop 50, surely.
But there's a lot more: Here is our round-up at Bolts!
You know about Prop 50, surely.
But there's a lot more: Here is our round-up at Bolts!
Five Ways Tuesday’s Results Will Affect Voting Rules and Democracy - Bolts
From felony disenfranchisement and mail-voting to mid-decade gerrymanders, Tuesday delivered verdicts on election law across these five states.
boltsmag.org
November 6, 2025 at 9:46 PM
NEW: How did Tuesday's elections affect how you vote, and the rules of democracy?
You know about Prop 50, surely.
But there's a lot more: Here is our round-up at Bolts!
You know about Prop 50, surely.
But there's a lot more: Here is our round-up at Bolts!
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
If it's true that RealClearPolitics removed their polling average of the VA Attorney General race because it was wrong, that should really be the nail in the coffin for them. It's GOP polling propaganda that hasn't been rigorous or transparent in a long time (www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-pollin...)
November 6, 2025 at 3:50 PM
If it's true that RealClearPolitics removed their polling average of the VA Attorney General race because it was wrong, that should really be the nail in the coffin for them. It's GOP polling propaganda that hasn't been rigorous or transparent in a long time (www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-pollin...)
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Why is there any doubt about this
PAHO meets this week to decide if we’ve lost measles elimination status. I warned in this interview that we’re marching toward that threshold—and getting this close signals widening vaccination gaps and eroding public health capacity.
🔗 www.scientificamerican.com/article/meas...
#Vaccines #Measles
🔗 www.scientificamerican.com/article/meas...
#Vaccines #Measles
North America May Soon No Longer Be Officially Measles-Free, Experts Say
A meeting of the Pan American Health Organization this week will address the resurgence of measles in the Americas
www.scientificamerican.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Why is there any doubt about this
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Research finding!
“Prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.”
“Prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.”
Off With Their Heads
prosecuting your elected leader is good for the soul
hegemon.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Research finding!
“Prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.”
“Prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.”
Really good.
Also, ouch!
“Cheney’s work put him at the forefront of the quantitative wave in political science that transformed the field from a sleepy and largely useless compilation of descriptive facts … into a research enterprise that occasionally has something useful to say about the world.”
Also, ouch!
“Cheney’s work put him at the forefront of the quantitative wave in political science that transformed the field from a sleepy and largely useless compilation of descriptive facts … into a research enterprise that occasionally has something useful to say about the world.”
This is easily the most interesting of all the Cheney obits I read today
Dick Cheney, ABD
Remembering the greatest alt-ac of them all
musgrave.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Really good.
Also, ouch!
“Cheney’s work put him at the forefront of the quantitative wave in political science that transformed the field from a sleepy and largely useless compilation of descriptive facts … into a research enterprise that occasionally has something useful to say about the world.”
Also, ouch!
“Cheney’s work put him at the forefront of the quantitative wave in political science that transformed the field from a sleepy and largely useless compilation of descriptive facts … into a research enterprise that occasionally has something useful to say about the world.”
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
I see Dick Cheney's death has been pushed lower on the NYT page by a new top story about a GOP president deciding which half-assed plan to use for regime change in Venezuela and what a nice tribute to him really. Justifying it based on a drug that Venezuela doesn't traffic in is a great touch.
November 4, 2025 at 7:26 PM
I see Dick Cheney's death has been pushed lower on the NYT page by a new top story about a GOP president deciding which half-assed plan to use for regime change in Venezuela and what a nice tribute to him really. Justifying it based on a drug that Venezuela doesn't traffic in is a great touch.
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Out now! I look at the size of municipal and local assemblies in EU/OECD countries and find that in addition to an effect of municipality population, more autonomous local councils are larger www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Patterns of regional and local council size
There is a growing literature that examines how subnational assembly size affects policy outcomes like turnout and women's representation, but also in…
www.sciencedirect.com
November 3, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Out now! I look at the size of municipal and local assemblies in EU/OECD countries and find that in addition to an effect of municipality population, more autonomous local councils are larger www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
In my paper the other day in @liberalcurrents.com I spent some time on our very weird candidate selection & non-membership based political parties because I don't think Americans know just how strange it is:
www.liberalcurrents.com/the-american...
www.liberalcurrents.com/the-american...
November 2, 2025 at 2:32 AM
In my paper the other day in @liberalcurrents.com I spent some time on our very weird candidate selection & non-membership based political parties because I don't think Americans know just how strange it is:
www.liberalcurrents.com/the-american...
www.liberalcurrents.com/the-american...
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Hey #lawsky, with H5N1 incoming there's going to be a *ton* of money in the #PersonalInjury space. Worth reading up on how we got here, #failuretowarn, and why the COIs around major medical errors made wrt COVID mean reasonable steps to mitigate infectious aerosol hazards are rejected.
Also:
Also:
October 31, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Hey #lawsky, with H5N1 incoming there's going to be a *ton* of money in the #PersonalInjury space. Worth reading up on how we got here, #failuretowarn, and why the COIs around major medical errors made wrt COVID mean reasonable steps to mitigate infectious aerosol hazards are rejected.
Also:
Also:
Excellent overview about how the structural problem of presidentialization, plus non-hierarchical parties, renders it insufficient to implore Democrats (or Republicans for that matter) to just develop better messaging and improve their reputation.
More on diagnosing American politics, and why I am skeptical of simplistic messaging/organizing prescriptions.
Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...
Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...
October 29, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Excellent overview about how the structural problem of presidentialization, plus non-hierarchical parties, renders it insufficient to implore Democrats (or Republicans for that matter) to just develop better messaging and improve their reputation.
Anyone out there happen to know details of the electoral system of #Senegal after 2012? Datasets I am working with disagree on some features and Wikipedia isn’t clear.
October 28, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Anyone out there happen to know details of the electoral system of #Senegal after 2012? Datasets I am working with disagree on some features and Wikipedia isn’t clear.
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
The more I think about all of this, the more I become convinced that democratic reform is the answer, not organizing and messaging.
Ezra Klein is Looking for Change in the Wrong Places – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/ezra-klein-i...
Ezra Klein is Looking for Change in the Wrong Places – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/ezra-klein-i...
Ezra Klein is Looking for Change in the Wrong Places – Outside the Beltway
outsidethebeltway.com
October 27, 2025 at 1:55 PM
The more I think about all of this, the more I become convinced that democratic reform is the answer, not organizing and messaging.
Ezra Klein is Looking for Change in the Wrong Places – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/ezra-klein-i...
Ezra Klein is Looking for Change in the Wrong Places – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/ezra-klein-i...
Reposted by Matthew Shugart
Have you noticed plane turbulence is getting worse?
It’s not your imagination. It’s climate change.
It’s not your imagination. It’s climate change.
Our new study finds that the upper atmosphere is becoming more sheared and less stratified because of climate change. Both these changes are making the air less stable and more conducive to turbulence.
Published in the November issue of Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.
doi.org/10.1175/JAS-...
Published in the November issue of Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.
doi.org/10.1175/JAS-...
October 26, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Have you noticed plane turbulence is getting worse?
It’s not your imagination. It’s climate change.
It’s not your imagination. It’s climate change.