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Larry Warren @lfwarren.bsky.social · 23d

Main takeaway: UI generosity modestly raises reservation & reemployment wages, but much of action is in increased collection of UI. This take-up margin dampens wage response. Policy levers on eligibility and costs of claiming and collecting UI benefits important, and interact with benefit levels.

Larry Warren @lfwarren.bsky.social · 23d

We build a directed search model with endogenous take-up. Key insight: Higher generosity draws in lower-wage claimants, dampening the average wage response. In the absence of a collection margin, the wage response is stronger.

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Larry Warren @lfwarren.bsky.social · 23d

From CPS: • Reemployment wage premium for UI-eligible ≈ +9% vs. ineligible during expansions. • Take-up rate jumped from ~30% to ~40%, entirely due to higher benefits — not from changes in composition of unemployed or eligibles.

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Larry Warren @lfwarren.bsky.social · 23d

From BAM data we find: • Cross-section elasticity of reservation wages to UI is very small • Pandemic expansions raised reservation wages by only 8–12%. • Composition shifts: Relative to pre-pandemic, collectors were younger, nonwhite, and leisure/hospitality workers.

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Larry Warren @lfwarren.bsky.social · 23d

During COVID, UI generosity increased significantly ($600/$300 weekly supplements, plus expanded eligibility). A natural experiment to measure the pass-through from benefits to wages and who collects UI.

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Larry Warren @lfwarren.bsky.social · 23d

How do more generous unemployment benefits affect job search, reemployment wages, and the decision to claim UI benefits? We study this using detailed admin & survey data from BAM and CPS — and a directed search model with UI and endogenous take-up.

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Larry Warren @lfwarren.bsky.social · 23d

Hey #EconSky 📈📉
Excited to finally share this working paper with Roozbeh Hosseini and Martin Gervais.
"Unemployment Insurance, Wage Pass-Through, and Endogenous Take-up"
www2.census.gov/library/work...
A Short 🧵:

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Reposted by Larry Warren

AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · Sep 9

Forthcoming in the AER: "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter" by J. Carter Braxton, Kyle Herkenhoff, Jonathan Rothbaum, and Lawrence Schmidt. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter

(Forthcoming Article) - For whom has earnings risk changed, and why? We answer these questions by combining the Kalman filter and EM-algorithm to estimate persistent and temporary earnings for every i...

www.aeaweb.org

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Olivier Simard-Casanova @o.simardcasanova.net · Aug 21

I love economic history because for instance, you discover that a bicycle bubble happened in Great Britain during the 1890s

Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · Aug 21

V good, v interesting & open access. An excellent combination.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Reposted by Larry Warren

David Wiczer @davidwiczer.bsky.social · Aug 21

A fun/important little piece with @AtlantaFed
colleagues. Our survey center asked firms how exposed their supply chain was to imports. More import-intensive firms expect to raise prices more *and* the more their competitors import,the more they'll raise.
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...

Will Tariffs Touch Off an Inflationary Impulse? Business Execs Think So.

This Policy Hub paper uses survey data to explore tariffs' potential inflationary impact and how it could spill over beyond those firms directly affected.

www.atlantafed.org

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Ethan Struby @estruby.bsky.social · Aug 4

reminder that midwest macro's submission deadline is coming up!

www.clevelandfed.org/events/2025/...

Fall 2025 Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland will host the Fall 2025 Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting on November 13-14, 2025. All conference activities will take place at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland...

www.clevelandfed.org

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · Jul 14

ROFL = Real Outliers Fatally Lanced
TLDR = Too Lazy; Didn't Research
SMH = So Many Hypotheses
BRB = Bayes ... Really, Bayes?
IMHO = Is My Hypothesis Obvious?
DND = Distribution Not Defined
FAFO = Fanciful Analysis of Four Observations
JC = Jointly Comical
NFI = Never Forget Independence

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Reposted by Larry Warren

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · Jul 10

N = 16 workers

Workers were assigned to do multiple tasks

The authors don't cluster standard errors

I don't think we learn much from this study.

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Reposted by Larry Warren

METR @metr.org · Jul 10

We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers.

The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · Jul 8

The American Time Use Survey is up for renewal, or cancellation.

OMB is gathering input on the data's importance.

@ipums.bsky.social organized a rapid response briefing to equip us with tools to effectively comment.
#EconSky #sociology #policysky

Register:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Rapid Response Data Briefing: American Time Use Survey. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.

Did you know that the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) is up for renewal? Join us to learn: - What's in the ATUS? - Why is ATUS important? - What are the risks facing its continued collection and publi...

us06web.zoom.us

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Martin Gaynor @martingaynor.bsky.social · Apr 16

This is a really good conference put on by the Bureau of Economics of the Federal Trade Commission. Submit a paper for the program via the link below. #economics #antitrust #econsky www.ftc.gov/news-events/...

Eighteenth Annual Microeconomics Conference

The Federal Trade Commission's Bureau of Economics and the Tobin Center for Economic Policy at Yale University will host the 18th Annual FTC Microeconomics Conference on November 13 and 14, 2025 in

www.ftc.gov

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Clément de Chaisemartin @cdechaisemartin.bsky.social · Apr 18

Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Credible Answers to Hard Questions: Differences-in-Differences for Natural Experiments

This book introduces applied researchers to modern Differences-in-Differences (DID) methods, that they can use to obtain credible answers to hard causal inferen

papers.ssrn.com

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Larry Warren @lfwarren.bsky.social · Mar 17

The work is mysterious and important.

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Nikhil Garg @nkgarg.bsky.social · Mar 10

*Please repost* @sjgreenwood.bsky.social and I just launched a new personalized feed (*please pin*) that we hope will become a "must use" for #academicsky. The feed shows posts about papers filtered by *your* follower network. It's become my default Bluesky experience bsky.app/profile/pape...

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Reposted by Larry Warren

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · Mar 7

538-style poll collection has now been recreated by a small group of fans and former staff. all fully transparent and public now. return of live public aggregation is imminent

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Polls

docs.google.com

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Alex MacKay @amackay.bsky.social · Mar 5

Forthcoming at the Journal of Political Economy: We find that consumer product markups increased more than 25 percent from 2006 to 2019.

One contribution is an approach to estimate IO-style models at scale, yielding flexible consumer preferences and estimates of marginal costs.

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Jakob Schneebacher @jschneebacher.bsky.social · Feb 24

Looking to do a fully funded, policy-relevant PhD in economics?

The ESRC has funded another joint CMA PhD studentship, this time with Lorenza Rossi and Stefano Fasani at Lancaster University, on the interaction of market power, price setting and macro dynamics.

Please share widely and apply!

ESRC CASE PhD Studentship - Lancaster University

www.lancaster.ac.uk

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Reposted by Larry Warren

David A. Jaeger (econ) @davidajaeger.bsky.social · Feb 24

It's a very sad day. Just notified that @iza.org is closing its doors as of 31 December 2025. At a time when labor is under attack and technological change moves at an ever-faster pace, I can't help but think that this is a short-sighted decision. My heart goes out to those folks who work there.

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Feb 18

🚀 Exciting Opportunity! 🚀
#AI keeps me up at night. What will happen to work & workers? 🤔
I'm partnering with Schmidt Sciences to offer up to $200,000 in funding for early-career researchers! 💡
🗓️ Apply by March 31 2025
🙏 spread the word!
🔗 Learn more & apply schmidtsciences.org/ai-at-work
#EconSky

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Reposted by Larry Warren

Garth Baughman @econgarth.bsky.social · Feb 13

Call for Papers! 4th DC Search and Matching will be 4/25-26. Submission deadline 3/10. Send us your papers! www.cvent.com/c/abstracts/...

Fourth DC Search & Match Workshop – CALL FOR PAPERS

www.cvent.com

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