Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Mihail Chiru

@mihailchiru.bsky.social

2.8K followers 2.6K following 23 posts

Political scientist at the University of Oxford working on legislative studies and party politics in Central and Eastern Europe and the European Parliament.

Videos

Political science 73%

Business 9%

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Jan W. Mueller, Mark Robinson , and 4 more Ben H. Ansell, Jan W. Mueller, Mark Robinson, Steven Fielding, Wolfgang Huber, Philipp Sarasin, Mihail Chiru

Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 29d

As far as the Anglo consensus is concerned, Spain's assertive centre-left government has done everything wrong: Keynesian, redistributive, socially open, net-zero-friendly, multilateralist, Trump-sceptical.

Yet the governing PSOE just hit 33% in latest CIS poll, above even its 2023 election win.

18 130 410

Reposted by Florence Faucher

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Sep 1

Happy to share that today is my first day as Associate Professor in Central and Eastern European Politics @politicsoxford.bsky.social & @osgaoxford.bsky.social‬. It has been a long journey & I am grateful to all the people who helped me, especially to my brilliant collaborators & generous mentors

5 4 72

Reposted by R. Daniel Kelemen, Mihail Chiru

JEPP Journal @jeppjournal.bsky.social · Aug 6

⚖️ Poland has a new president, but democratic backsliding and rule of law concerns remain.

❗ For anyone wanting to learn more about democratic backsliding or planning their course syllabi on the topic, look no further! Discover our JEPP collection on how the EU responds to democratic backsliding 👇

Reacting to democratic backsliding in the European Union

Explore the article collection: Reacting to democratic backsliding in the European Union. Published in Journal of European Public Policy.

www.tandfonline.com

1 7 15

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Mary Bosworth, David M. Farrell , and 11 more Ben H. Ansell, Mary Bosworth, David M. Farrell, Dave O’Brien, Maarten Vink, Silja Häusermann, Tom van der Meer, Manuela Moschella, Thomas Hegghammer, Werner Krause, Federica Genovese, Joost van Spanje, Claudia Landwehr, Mihail Chiru

Politics_Oxford @politicsoxford.bsky.social · Jul 15

📢APPLY NOW!: DPIR seeks a Departmental Lecturer in Comparative European Politics to provide teaching and supervision at the undergraduate and graduate level and contribute to the Departmental examining and graduate admissions processes.🗓️ CLOSES: 12pm, 5 Aug: ow.ly/brXi50WpZav

17 12

Reposted by Marc Lynch, Nina Jankowicz, Elizabeth Saunders , and 11 more Marc Lynch, Nina Jankowicz, Elizabeth Saunders, Anna Nagurney, Joe R. Feagin, Jon Pierre, Gavin A. Schmidt, Michael A. Clemens, Martin Tomko, Jessica A. Gephart, Naazneen H. Barma, Cullen S. Hendrix, Mihail Chiru, Fiona Armstrong

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.bsky.social · Jul 15

"Five months into its unprecedented dismantling of foreign-aid programs, the Trump administration has given the order to incinerate food instead of sending it to people who need it"
@hana-kiros.bsky.social, on spending $130,000 to burn food worth $800,000
www.theatlantic.com/health/archi...

The Trump Administration Is About to Incinerate 500 Tons of Emergency Food

Federal workers warned for months that the high-energy biscuits would go to waste.

www.theatlantic.com

370 3.2K 4.5K

Reposted by Mihail Chiru

Zia Weise @ziaweise.bsky.social · Jul 9

NEW: For years, the extreme right was content pooh-poohing the EU's climate efforts from the back benches. No longer.

Why the far right ended up in charge of parliamentary talks on the 2040 climate target, what it means and what's next w/ @maxgriera.bsky.social:

www.politico.eu/article/the-...

The far right’s climate power grab

The Patriots for Europe, a new far-right force in Brussels, has won the right to lead the European Parliament’s 2040 climate target discussions.

www.politico.eu

1 8 21

Reposted by Martin McKee, Ron Boschma, Simon Chapman , and 8 more Martin McKee, Ron Boschma, Simon Chapman, Alex Coad, Dirk Pilat, Martin Tomko, Clayton Littlejohn, Jay Shambaugh, Andrew Baillie, Mihail Chiru, Stijn Smismans

David Roberts @volts.wtf · Jul 2

Elon Musk casually, and illegally, dismantled USAID. According to a new study in the Lancet, that action will lead to *14 million* premature deaths between 2025 and 2030.

Again: Elon Musk is directly responsible for 14 million coming deaths. 4.5 million will be children.

Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis

USAID funding has significantly contributed to the reduction in adult and child mortality across low-income and middle-income countries over the past two decades. Our estimates show that, unless the a...

www.thelancet.com

130 2.3K 4.6K

Reposted by Mihail Chiru

Carla Denyer @carladenyer.bsky.social · Jul 2

I just voted against proscribing Palestine Action, a civil disobedience group, as a terrorist organisation. But I'm furious that in doing so, the government forced me and others to vote against proscribing two other clearly terrorist groups. Cynical and dangerous from govt.

84 640 2.4K

Reposted by Mihail Chiru

Politics_Oxford @politicsoxford.bsky.social · Jun 21

DPIR’s 25th anniversary: Read our 25 in 25 Collection - celebrating staff, students, alumni, and the impact of our world-leading research.

Meet @ktertytchnaya.bsky.social‬ - Associate Professor in Comparative Politics: www.politics.ox.ac.u...

7 18

Reposted by Mihail Chiru

WWF EU @wwf.eu · Mar 11

📢 100 days are up for @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu! What took years to build can be dismantled in mere months... Here's our take on the Commission's risky bet on deregulation.

From the @brusselstimes.com ⬇️

www.brusselstimes.com/opinion/1481...

The Commission’s risky bet to deregulate threatens European nature and well-being

www.brusselstimes.com

10 21

Reposted by Mihail Chiru

Maarja Lühiste @maarja.bsky.social · Feb 24

🎉🎉🎉 Super excited that our paper -- on how changing public attitudes on gender equality don't seem to affect parties' candidate selection strategies -- with the amazing @ThomasDäubler and @mihailchiru.bsky.social is now accessible OnlineFirst at the EUP: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

1 5 16

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

Yes, those are good proxies. It will depend on the turnout and of how much wasted votes get redistributed. Here a prediction from a decent sociologist, though there have only been two opinion polls published this week and the quality of polls is low: tinyurl.com/mr268748 tinyurl.com/r5yssaj3

Parlamentare 2024: o estimare a intențiilor de vot

Reiau exercițiul de predicție a rezultatelor alegerilor pe baza combinării estimărilor produse de sondaje (pentru prezidențiale, vezi aici și aici). De această dată e rândul alegerilor parlamentare…

tinyurl.com

1 2

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

I mostly agree and it will be sad and frustrating if none of them makes it into Parliament, but SENS are arguing that their potential voters would have stayed home if they accepted to join a coalition with a (economically) more right wing party...

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

Maybe of interest @ralucahippie.bsky.social @timhaughton.bsky.social @benstanley.pl @lenkabustikova.bsky.social @isadesisto.bsky.social @dimitarbechev.bsky.social @zsolt.bsky.social @jrovny.bsky.social @petraguasti.bsky.social @allansikk.bsky.social @medzihorsky.bsky.social

1 7

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

You can read here a somewhat longer explanation I wrote for Oxford Analytica regarding the outcome of the first round of the presidential elections and its implications for Romanian politics: tinyurl.com/ya4kj6v8

(PDF) A hard test for Romania's democratic resilience

PDF | What happened in the first round of the Romanian 2024 presidential elections and what can we expect from the parliamentary elections? | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchG...

tinyurl.com

1 2 7

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

Given the recent backlash against grand coalitions and the likely fragmentation of parliament, the likelihood of a minority coalition cabinet is increasing. However, the parties will be incentivised to compromise, given the constitutional difficulties in calling early elections to resolve deadlock.

1 4

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

Diaspora voters, accounting for around 10% of votes in the presidential elections, will continue to split their options between the far-right and liberal or progressive new parties, but they will influence less the final results as their only elect 6 MPs & they need to demonstrate residency abroad.

1 5

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

New progressive force. Socially liberal voters with leftist economic views have had no party, but two alternatives have emerged recently (SENS & REPER). One of them may clear the 5% electoral threshold with SENS being more likely, having contributed to the election of the first Romanian Green MEP.

2 4

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

Benefiting from their president Lasconi’s unexpected success in the 1st round of presid. elections, the liberal USR could emerge as the main centre-right party ahead of PNL. The Constitutional Court’s decision to ask for a full recount of the presid. election vote will mobilise their voters.

1 4

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

An increased number of far-right MPs. Mainly from the Alliance for Union of Romanians (ECR member), which could become the 2nd largest party, but also SOS Romania & Young People’s Party (POT) which are closer to Georgescu in their extremist views and usage of overt pro-Russian and anti-EU rhetoric.

1 4

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

Substantial realignment. While the protest vote against the 2 parties is likely to continue at the parliam. elections, their leaders’ resignations might limit losses. Bandwagon effects from the shocking 1st round of presidential elections are expected both for far-right parties and for the USR.

1 4

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 30

The results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election were shocking. For the first time since 1989, neither of the candidates from the two largest parties qualified for the run-off and an ultra-nationalist won. What to expect from the parliamentary elections taking place tomorrow?

1 11 29

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 14

Awesome, thanks a lot!

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Nov 14

Agreed. Somewhat related, I keep looking at that directory and hoping to free ride on someone putting together an Eastern European politics scholars starter pack.

Reposted by Mihail Chiru

Tom Ashbyトム ∙ アシュビー @tomaashby.bsky.social · Nov 12

Looking for people to follow? Find here a directory of almost 6500 starter packs & growing. Very useful, do share! blueskydirectory.com/starter-pack...

All - Bluesky Directory

A curated collection of all things relating to the Blue Sky social media platform.

blueskydirectory.com

19 86 130

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Oct 14

Normatively, such actions might be seen as a hijacking of direct democracy for partisan gains, even less justified when a party is represented in Parliament. On the positive side, they can enable passage of bills for which there is popular support, but opposition from mainstream parties.

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Oct 14

The positive outcome appears to have been favoured by an electoral campaign which clearly reused messages from the citizen initiative campaign and a situation in which the main issue promoted by the initiative remained salient on the public agenda at the time of elections.

1 2

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Oct 14

We show that an increase in turnout levels took place in localities with signature collection points & present individual-level data suggesting that the initiative likely contributed to core voter mobilization. The share of signatures in locality is a strong predictor of USR vote

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · Oct 14

The initiative, “No Convicts in Public Office!” was part of USR’s ownership claim over the issue of anti-corruption. Our matched diff-in-diff design corroborates the positive impact of the initiative on USR’s results at the 2019 European Parliament elections & 2020 national elections