Michael Tobis (mt)
@mtobis.bsky.social
PhD atmospheric/oceanic sciences 1996 but a bit rusty.
Opinionated.
Main topics: climate, sustainability, Canada, AI and ML, journalism.
Also: roots music, art, healthy plant-based food.
Please think like a planet!
https://initforthegold.blogspot.com
Opinionated.
Main topics: climate, sustainability, Canada, AI and ML, journalism.
Also: roots music, art, healthy plant-based food.
Please think like a planet!
https://initforthegold.blogspot.com
Pinned
Michael Tobis (mt)
@mtobis.bsky.social
· May 24
Climate change summarized.
"Carbon is Forever"
🧵 0/6
"Carbon is Forever"
🧵 0/6
Cold outbreak/ disrupted jetstream? Not necessarily more likely in a changed climate. Disputed among experts. Tired of seeing this posed as consensus.
More moisture available to exacerbate the clash of airmasses? Yes. Clearly exacerbated by climate change.
So, a complicated climatological story.
More moisture available to exacerbate the clash of airmasses? Yes. Clearly exacerbated by climate change.
So, a complicated climatological story.
Not everything's always climate change. Not everything's always climate change. Not everything's always climate change.
But then...
Climate change → Higher ocean temperatures → More moist air → More intense (winter) storms
Yes, there's a link csi.climatecentral.org/ocean?lat=26...
But then...
Climate change → Higher ocean temperatures → More moist air → More intense (winter) storms
Yes, there's a link csi.climatecentral.org/ocean?lat=26...
January 24, 2026 at 12:05 AM
Cold outbreak/ disrupted jetstream? Not necessarily more likely in a changed climate. Disputed among experts. Tired of seeing this posed as consensus.
More moisture available to exacerbate the clash of airmasses? Yes. Clearly exacerbated by climate change.
So, a complicated climatological story.
More moisture available to exacerbate the clash of airmasses? Yes. Clearly exacerbated by climate change.
So, a complicated climatological story.
If this storm is as severe and consequential as people are suggesting, the recovery process will depend to a considerable extent on the capacities and resources of the US federal government.
Watching with interest.
Wishing the many affected people good luck and strength.
Watching with interest.
Wishing the many affected people good luck and strength.
January 23, 2026 at 11:37 PM
If this storm is as severe and consequential as people are suggesting, the recovery process will depend to a considerable extent on the capacities and resources of the US federal government.
Watching with interest.
Wishing the many affected people good luck and strength.
Watching with interest.
Wishing the many affected people good luck and strength.
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
Adults: I may not love Carney, but that was a pretty darn respectable speech.
Brian Lilley: He didn't even praise Trump or eat an apple loudly!
Brian Lilley: He didn't even praise Trump or eat an apple loudly!
January 21, 2026 at 1:33 PM
Adults: I may not love Carney, but that was a pretty darn respectable speech.
Brian Lilley: He didn't even praise Trump or eat an apple loudly!
Brian Lilley: He didn't even praise Trump or eat an apple loudly!
The UK government has quietly released a report entitled
"Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security"
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696e0e...
Notable for Canada: a "realistic possibility of collapse" of the Canadian boreal forest ecosystem starting as soon as 2030
"Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security"
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696e0e...
Notable for Canada: a "realistic possibility of collapse" of the Canadian boreal forest ecosystem starting as soon as 2030
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
January 21, 2026 at 5:57 PM
The UK government has quietly released a report entitled
"Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security"
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696e0e...
Notable for Canada: a "realistic possibility of collapse" of the Canadian boreal forest ecosystem starting as soon as 2030
"Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security"
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696e0e...
Notable for Canada: a "realistic possibility of collapse" of the Canadian boreal forest ecosystem starting as soon as 2030
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
Powerful Guardian editorial on urgent need for #climate adaptation & for “real plans, real finance, real justice”. And good to see shout out to work of @climatemajority.bsky.social & GlacierTrust showing adaptation as both essential in itself & as a spur to greater decarbonisation👇
The Guardian view on adapting to the climate crisis: it demands political honesty about extreme weather | Editorial
Editorial: Over the holiday period, the Guardian leader column is looking ahead at the themes of 2026. Today we look at how the struggle to adapt to a dangerously warming world has become a test of gl...
www.theguardian.com
December 27, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Powerful Guardian editorial on urgent need for #climate adaptation & for “real plans, real finance, real justice”. And good to see shout out to work of @climatemajority.bsky.social & GlacierTrust showing adaptation as both essential in itself & as a spur to greater decarbonisation👇
You don’t have to love everything about Mark Carney (or the Canadian Liberal Party) to appreciate how valuable and timely his speech was today.
January 21, 2026 at 2:38 AM
You don’t have to love everything about Mark Carney (or the Canadian Liberal Party) to appreciate how valuable and timely his speech was today.
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
If we had a halfway decent opposition party in Canada, they’d endorse the words Carney used today, and then hammer him relentlessly on implementation or lack thereof.
January 20, 2026 at 10:23 PM
If we had a halfway decent opposition party in Canada, they’d endorse the words Carney used today, and then hammer him relentlessly on implementation or lack thereof.
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
We can build walls or we can be more ambitious — and build something better, stronger, and more just.
January 20, 2026 at 10:56 PM
We can build walls or we can be more ambitious — and build something better, stronger, and more just.
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
Worth your time to listen to the whole thing
January 20, 2026 at 11:36 PM
Worth your time to listen to the whole thing
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
Suspiciously asking my wife who's funding her anytime she criticizes me
January 17, 2026 at 6:10 PM
Suspiciously asking my wife who's funding her anytime she criticizes me
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
It's a category error.
So many of these people seem to believe that the goal of education is the thesis or the essay, the written work itself.
Or the grade it receives. Or the diploma.
But the goal of education is to produce people capable of creating the thesis.
So many of these people seem to believe that the goal of education is the thesis or the essay, the written work itself.
Or the grade it receives. Or the diploma.
But the goal of education is to produce people capable of creating the thesis.
January 17, 2026 at 11:51 PM
It's a category error.
So many of these people seem to believe that the goal of education is the thesis or the essay, the written work itself.
Or the grade it receives. Or the diploma.
But the goal of education is to produce people capable of creating the thesis.
So many of these people seem to believe that the goal of education is the thesis or the essay, the written work itself.
Or the grade it receives. Or the diploma.
But the goal of education is to produce people capable of creating the thesis.
This is only the beginning. Future agentic pizza ordering systems will order your pizza for you, pay for it out of your bank account, and then eat it for you.
January 17, 2026 at 7:30 PM
This is only the beginning. Future agentic pizza ordering systems will order your pizza for you, pay for it out of your bank account, and then eat it for you.
Individual resistance to authoritarianism is futile, and this futility is the key to authoritarianism's power.
Collective resistance to authoritarianism is powerful and is the source of hope. But it makes no sense in an individualistic calculation of costs and benefits.
Collective resistance to authoritarianism is powerful and is the source of hope. But it makes no sense in an individualistic calculation of costs and benefits.
January 17, 2026 at 5:30 PM
Individual resistance to authoritarianism is futile, and this futility is the key to authoritarianism's power.
Collective resistance to authoritarianism is powerful and is the source of hope. But it makes no sense in an individualistic calculation of costs and benefits.
Collective resistance to authoritarianism is powerful and is the source of hope. But it makes no sense in an individualistic calculation of costs and benefits.
The concept of "freedom" is a many-sided one and nowadays only the individualist side of it is commonly discussed, especially in English-speaking countries.
But a free people is more than a collection of self-driven individuals. It is free to make decisions about its collective fate.
But a free people is more than a collection of self-driven individuals. It is free to make decisions about its collective fate.
January 17, 2026 at 5:27 PM
The concept of "freedom" is a many-sided one and nowadays only the individualist side of it is commonly discussed, especially in English-speaking countries.
But a free people is more than a collection of self-driven individuals. It is free to make decisions about its collective fate.
But a free people is more than a collection of self-driven individuals. It is free to make decisions about its collective fate.
"Live your life as nearly as possible to how you would live if you were free" (Walesa) does have a libertarian ring to it nowadays but living in total indifference to others isn't what he meant. Walesa's movement was called "Solidarity" after all.
Solidarity is an unselfish kind of freedom.
Solidarity is an unselfish kind of freedom.
January 17, 2026 at 5:25 PM
"Live your life as nearly as possible to how you would live if you were free" (Walesa) does have a libertarian ring to it nowadays but living in total indifference to others isn't what he meant. Walesa's movement was called "Solidarity" after all.
Solidarity is an unselfish kind of freedom.
Solidarity is an unselfish kind of freedom.
Today I am reminded of Lech Walesa's advice before the Soviet empire collapsed (look him up if you're too young to remember) that in an autocratic state you should live your life in the closest approximation one can manage to how you would operate if you were free.
January 17, 2026 at 5:20 PM
Today I am reminded of Lech Walesa's advice before the Soviet empire collapsed (look him up if you're too young to remember) that in an autocratic state you should live your life in the closest approximation one can manage to how you would operate if you were free.
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
Among Those Who Say To Defend Our Nation:
All: 59%
New Democrats: 78%
Liberals: 73%
Bloc Quebecois: 46%
Conservatives: 38%
All: 59%
New Democrats: 78%
Liberals: 73%
Bloc Quebecois: 46%
Conservatives: 38%
"If Canada were ever to face a situation in which the United States used military force against Canadian territory, what do you believe should be Canada primary response?"
Defend and Fight: 59%
Avoid Fighting - Make Concessions: 24%
EKOS / Jan 14, 2026 / n=1012 / MOE 3.1% / IVR
Defend and Fight: 59%
Avoid Fighting - Make Concessions: 24%
EKOS / Jan 14, 2026 / n=1012 / MOE 3.1% / IVR
January 16, 2026 at 7:07 PM
Among Those Who Say To Defend Our Nation:
All: 59%
New Democrats: 78%
Liberals: 73%
Bloc Quebecois: 46%
Conservatives: 38%
All: 59%
New Democrats: 78%
Liberals: 73%
Bloc Quebecois: 46%
Conservatives: 38%
CPC position on the China deal: as always start with Liberals bad, why Liberals bad?
Appears they settled on: because we are not doing the bidding of the US government, who might treat us even worse than they’re already doing!
Cowardly. Can’t help but wonder what Diefenbaker would think!
Appears they settled on: because we are not doing the bidding of the US government, who might treat us even worse than they’re already doing!
Cowardly. Can’t help but wonder what Diefenbaker would think!
January 16, 2026 at 7:21 PM
CPC position on the China deal: as always start with Liberals bad, why Liberals bad?
Appears they settled on: because we are not doing the bidding of the US government, who might treat us even worse than they’re already doing!
Cowardly. Can’t help but wonder what Diefenbaker would think!
Appears they settled on: because we are not doing the bidding of the US government, who might treat us even worse than they’re already doing!
Cowardly. Can’t help but wonder what Diefenbaker would think!
Some observatoons from my newly enshittified Facebook “reels” feed:
Foremost, rightwing propaganda is pitched to a high-school kock mentality.
The vast majority of rightwing videos are narrated by hot young men and hot young women.
The dominant attitude is smug superiority. But that’s not all…
Foremost, rightwing propaganda is pitched to a high-school kock mentality.
The vast majority of rightwing videos are narrated by hot young men and hot young women.
The dominant attitude is smug superiority. But that’s not all…
January 15, 2026 at 8:16 PM
Some observatoons from my newly enshittified Facebook “reels” feed:
Foremost, rightwing propaganda is pitched to a high-school kock mentality.
The vast majority of rightwing videos are narrated by hot young men and hot young women.
The dominant attitude is smug superiority. But that’s not all…
Foremost, rightwing propaganda is pitched to a high-school kock mentality.
The vast majority of rightwing videos are narrated by hot young men and hot young women.
The dominant attitude is smug superiority. But that’s not all…
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
The 2026 State of the World discussion featuring Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky launched today and will continue through January 19. Thrills, spills, chills, shills, peccadillos, armadillos... the faster the world spins, the faster we spin the yarns. tinyurl.com/sotw2026 #sotw26
January 7, 2026 at 12:26 AM
The 2026 State of the World discussion featuring Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky launched today and will continue through January 19. Thrills, spills, chills, shills, peccadillos, armadillos... the faster the world spins, the faster we spin the yarns. tinyurl.com/sotw2026 #sotw26
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
"A hegemon that abuses its power and bullies others must be left in its own corner.
Resisting…is essential… [T]here may be no alternative to economic and social ostracism — no recourse but a policy of containment."
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
Resisting…is essential… [T]here may be no alternative to economic and social ostracism — no recourse but a policy of containment."
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
America’s New Age of Empire
Joseph E. Stiglitz thinks the rest of the world should plan for the worst and pursue a policy of containment of the US.
www.project-syndicate.org
January 10, 2026 at 8:01 AM
"A hegemon that abuses its power and bullies others must be left in its own corner.
Resisting…is essential… [T]here may be no alternative to economic and social ostracism — no recourse but a policy of containment."
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
Resisting…is essential… [T]here may be no alternative to economic and social ostracism — no recourse but a policy of containment."
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
Due to a glitch in the algorithm Facebook is now showing me the vile explicitly racist hate videos that aren’t meant for people like you and me.
Most reasonable people don’t see this stuff and have no idea where all the fascist ideation is coming from.
In case you didn’t know, it’s Facebook.
Most reasonable people don’t see this stuff and have no idea where all the fascist ideation is coming from.
In case you didn’t know, it’s Facebook.
January 10, 2026 at 2:29 AM
Due to a glitch in the algorithm Facebook is now showing me the vile explicitly racist hate videos that aren’t meant for people like you and me.
Most reasonable people don’t see this stuff and have no idea where all the fascist ideation is coming from.
In case you didn’t know, it’s Facebook.
Most reasonable people don’t see this stuff and have no idea where all the fascist ideation is coming from.
In case you didn’t know, it’s Facebook.
I don't have advice for Americans right now.
Given the US abandonment of not least UNFCCC and IPCC but even, for practical purposes, NATO, I think we in the rest of the world should discuss frankly how to minimize the damage and hold on to what we can of what's left of civilization and nature.
Given the US abandonment of not least UNFCCC and IPCC but even, for practical purposes, NATO, I think we in the rest of the world should discuss frankly how to minimize the damage and hold on to what we can of what's left of civilization and nature.
January 8, 2026 at 4:32 PM
I don't have advice for Americans right now.
Given the US abandonment of not least UNFCCC and IPCC but even, for practical purposes, NATO, I think we in the rest of the world should discuss frankly how to minimize the damage and hold on to what we can of what's left of civilization and nature.
Given the US abandonment of not least UNFCCC and IPCC but even, for practical purposes, NATO, I think we in the rest of the world should discuss frankly how to minimize the damage and hold on to what we can of what's left of civilization and nature.
Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)
