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Michael Tobis (mt)

@mtobis.bsky.social

3.2K followers 2.2K following 1.9K posts

PhD atmospheric/oceanic sciences 1996 but a bit rusty. Opinionated. Main topics: climate, sustainability, Canada, AI and ML, journalism. Also: roots music, art, healthy plant-based food. Please think like a planet! https://initforthegold.blogspot.com

initforthegold.blogspot.com

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · May 24

Climate change summarized.

"Carbon is Forever"

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Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)

Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · 1d

Please enjoy this executive at one of America's biggest gas companies openly admitting that expanding supply leads to increased demand for fossil fuels

He is not wrong: frantic expansion of fossil fuel supply worsens climate change. Tax it, cut subsidies, wind it down

www.ft.com/content/5ba8...

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https://www.ft.com/content/5ba8caec-61d3-4aa9-a877-9b200ef4b5b0

Will Jordan, chief legal and policy officer at EQT, a leading US gas producer, also thought that any glut would be temporary, and said US demand was also rising on the boom in power-hungry artificial intelligence data centres.

Recommended

Oil & Gas industry
BP’s new chair signals more asset sales and demands faster restructuring

“Supply leads demand — you put the supply on the market and demand gets created.,” he said. “Over the long term we’re very bullish.”

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 1d

46 mm according to our rain gauge!

Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)

Eleanor Bick @elbdot.bsky.social · 2d

All AI is doing is SEVERELY raising the value of books again, because with the countless bot-written articles echoing nonsense as FACTS, human-written books before the 2020s are now the only reliable source I can trust for my biological and scientific research 😭

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 2d

Line of much need heavy rain “training” over our town. :-)

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 2d

Fair enough. Withdrawn. Thanks for the correction.

Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

“AI” will save us. Let’s definitely put all our resources into “AI”.

Facebook AI offers insight into “how many donuts are in a dozen?”

Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

#graphicdujour

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

How far “off the charts” is September 2025? Sea surface temps are in this area of the North Pacific. >1.6C or ~3F above normal on average over this huge area.
I’d say even more alarming than the actual anomaly is the trend since 2010. In 15 years the anomaly jumped more than 2F! 3/

Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)

Merriam-Webster @merriam-webster.com · 8d

We are thrilled to announce that our NEW Large Language Model will be released on 11.18.25.

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Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)

Graham Cummins @grahamiancummins.bsky.social · 3d

The most important thing about AI is that after the investment bubble bursts, the class of idiots and conmen that bet the farm on it (many of whom also tried to bet the farm on crypto etc) stop being the people we let decide how our whole society allocates resources.

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Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)

Mark Vossler, MD (he/him) @markvmd.bsky.social · 3d

Carbon capture is the filtered cigarette of our time

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

We had total drought for about six weeks but we’ve had a substantial rain once a week or so for the last little while.

Another event likely tomorrow. Abnormal, very few clouds, so soil is still very dry, but not as bad as you have it.

Nice to be back in touch.

Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

:-(

Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

Monthly records did fall in Ontario

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

However, referring to deniers in the past dense is extremely over-optimistic.

I have recently been included in two active climate denier groups on Facebook. They are not chastened in any way by events.

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

Right, as I keep saying, physical reality is under no obligation to be moderate.

But yes, of course imagining impacts in advance is much harder than extrapolating climate physics.

Alas, these are early days. Ecosystems are at the edge of adaptability; they will soon be far beyond that edge.

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

High latitudes warm faster than other land areas. This was expected in advance. The result goes back as far as Charney 1979 (see excerpt below). It wasn't a secret; rather it was often communicated.

If policy people don't "widely understand" science (clearly they don't!) that's a separate issue.

Text from 1979 paper; includes "All the GCM's predict larger surface delta-T at high latitudes."

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Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)

Vintage Obscura Radio @vintageobscura.net · 4d

The Judy Roberts Band - Never Was Love[US, Funk/Jazz](1979)
https://redd.it/2w2bno
https://youtu.be/y58ZyPRW6BI

The Judy Roberts Band - Never Was Love[US, Funk/Jazz](1979)

youtu.be

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

Regarding your article - we seem to have taken a turn toward the worst scenario (#3) recently.

People are thinking nationally rather than globally, and the consequences are bad on many axes.

Recent election results in Czechia adds to the list of countries that have shockingly lost perspective.

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

The persistence/growth of penury under conditions of unprecedented aggregate global wealth is certainly striking!

We have permitted luxury beef cattle to outbid hungry humans for agricultural output. What has failed isn’t “abundance”!

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

If things get desperate nothing prevents coal from coming back.

Growth may fail, or (consider “AI”) imaginary growth may dominate for some time, but the climate mostly cares how much fossil carbon we burn, not what the balance sheets say.

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

Official records say no, but it was about 15 C above normal.

Reposted by Michael Tobis (mt)

Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 29d

Exactly. Very well and clearly stated.

I was for decades a gradualist who insisted than without enough gradual action, gradualism would become untenable.

We’ve hit that point. Physical reality is under no obligation to be moderate.

Still we’re not powerless to make matters less (or more) awful.

Alex Steffen @alexsteffen.bsky.social · 29d

We no longer live in a world capable of delivering an orderly transition — where collective action could limit the worsening of the planetary crisis enough that modest adaptation measures could prevent disruption of societal continuity — but that doesn't mean we've lost all agency.

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

We will find out what >3C abrupt warming and almost 10 billion people looks like. It’s unlikely to be pretty.

Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

Modest and gradual actions have not been sufficiently implemented while the opportunity existed.

There is no longer any way that the future can emerge in a continuous way from the present. I don’t like this but it’s true.

Physics and biology are under no obligation to be politically moderate.

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Michael Tobis (mt) @mtobis.bsky.social · 3d

#graphicdujour

Aarne Granlund @aarnegranlund.bsky.social · 3d

"All global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade."

#Sufficiency

www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/s...

Limiting warming to the Paris Agreement targets requires rapid, deep, and in most cases, immediate reductions in GHG emissions. Net-zero is achieved with emissions reductions, as shown in the graphic. Implemented policies overshoot the targets.

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