Nicolas Van de Sijpe
nicvdsijpe.bsky.social
Nicolas Van de Sijpe
@nicvdsijpe.bsky.social
Empirical economist @ Sheffield. Working on/recently worked on: (anticipated) discrimination, IV, development finance institutions, foreign aid. https://sites.google.com/site/nicolasvandesijpe/research Widowed dad of 2.
A great movie weekend, with Prey (I love the original Predator but Prey might be better!) and Laputa: Castle in the Sky (maybe my favourite Ghibli).
November 22, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
After more than 10 years of “the Danish Model”, nativism is hegemonic in the country, the far right polls near level highs again, and the Social Democrats lost Copenhagen and poll at historic low.

European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!

Me in @theguardian.com
The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark | Cas Mudde
This week’s local elections are the latest reminder that when social democrats move rightwards, they’re making a mistake, says academic and author Cas Mudde
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
VERY funny that Labour are being pointlessly cruel and haemorrhaging support from their base and yet none of what they're offering is ever going to be enough for the people whose approval they're seeking, WHO could have predicted it
November 20, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
happy cloudflare outage day to all who celebrate
November 18, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Great podcast on the lore behind the first Back to the Future movie podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
WHAT WENT WRONG
TV & Film Podcast · Updated Weekly · What Went Wrong covers Hollywood’s most notoriously disastrous movie productions, digging into the behind-the-scenes insanity of everything from massive flops to r...
podcasts.apple.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Coverage of the refugee proposals demonstrates why we have such a broken political system. Endless focus on left-wing anger and right-wing support. Basically nothing on whether the reforms will work. They will not, which is why we'll still be here having the same debate in three years.
November 18, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Another missed opportunity to make a principled argument that people who have lived here a significant period of time during which they have contributed in various ways should have certain rights. In many cases these people will be in long-term relationships with UK nationals with dependent children
Reform’s plan to cut EU citizens’ benefits would risk trade war with Europe, Labour claims – UK politics live
Reform’s plan to cut EU citizens’ benefits would risk trade war with Europe, Labour claims – UK politics live
As Reform announces what it claims are £25bn in savings through cuts, Labour says ‘Farage’s fantasy numbers don’t add up’ Good morning. Yesterday, as the government announced drastic plans to curb the number of asylum seekers able to stay in the UK, it was accused of adopting the politics of Reform UK, the anti-immigration party with a big lead in the opinion polls. In response, ministers argued that Labour would be doing even worse if it just ignored the legitimate concerns of voters who are supporting Nigel Farage’s party. But, when mainstream parties move on to the territory of the more extreme parties, they often respond with a further lurch to the right, and we will see an example of that today. Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, is holding a press conference where he is going to announce proposals that cover immigration and the budget (the other huge announcement preoccupying Westminster politics at the moment). As Peter Walker reports, Farage will propose spending cuts which he clams would save £25bn a year. The virtual elimination of all foreign aid spending. Currently aid spending runs at almost £14bn a year, but Reform would slash this to £1bn. Removing the right of EU nationals living in the UK to claim benefits, which Reform UK says would save £6bn. Increasing the cost of the NHS surcharge, the fee paid by non-UK residents when they get a visa to stay in the UK. This would rise form £1,035 to £2,718 a year, which Reform UK says would save £5bn. Nigel Farage’s fantasy numbers don’t add up, and he’d leave British taxpayers footing a hefty bill. Farage is happy to slap British shoppers with higher prices at the checkouts by risking a trade war with Europe. He’d betray working people and hammer British businesses who want to trade with the EU. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
This is the point. Policy *should not* be adjusted or fine-tuned in response to minor forecasting judgements. Decisions about whether or not to break a prominent manifesto promise *should not* depend on minor forecasting judgements. This stuff matters. We've got to do better than this.
I know it’s always like this. But one striking thing from the budget kite flying and kite pulling back in, is how major policy decisions are constantly being buffeted around by iterative forecast changes.
All feels a bit of a silly way to be making major economic policy & political decisions.
November 14, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
A win for economics (who predicted this), a loss for Britain
New @nberpubs: "The Economic Impact of Brexit" www.nber.org/papers/w34459
"by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time." 😲
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
"These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%." www.nber.org/papers/w34459 #EconSky
The Economic Impact of Brexit
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 10, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
"There is simply no sign of a fiscal catastrophe from the 'Boriswave'. Recent migrants are very likely to be employed, paying tax and seem to be contributing to British society..it will help, rather than hurt, Britain’s fiscal position."

Analysis by @lgilbert.co

ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Lower migration is bad news for the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe
Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, and that the recent collapse in immigration will harm the UK's economic p...
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
What a people!
A French cyclist survived for three days after a horrendous 130-foot fall into a ravine, kept alive by the bottles of red wine he had in his shopping bag, police said.
Cyclist falls down 130-foot ravine in France, survives 3 days by drinking wine he had in shopping bag
A helicopter airlifted him to hospital, with a rescue doctor calling his survival "a miracle."
cbsn.ws
October 31, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Academics in Assyria in the 7th c BC complain that admin is preventing them from doing research and teaching
November 3, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
“Foster is now calling for “proper stress testing” of any proposed changes to immigration policy to ensure there is “a clear understanding of the human impact...” www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Windrush commissioner: Black Britons asking if UK is ‘going backwards’
Rev Clive Foster says rhetoric targeting legal migrants makes some wonder if history is repeating itself
www.theguardian.com
October 26, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Not thousands -- these policies would mean deporting hundreds of thousands if not millions of people from the UK www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Labour demands clarity on Tory plan to strip thousands of right to stay in UK
Anna Turley says legally settled people threatened by Katie Lam’s proposals deserve urgent clarification
www.theguardian.com
October 26, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Encouraging. Seems many Conservatives don’t actually want to be the BNP plus plus Idi Amin tribute party. Maybe because such a toxic stance is deeply unpopular. Maybe because it is deeply wrong and cuts against core British values.
October 23, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
NEW - Starmer on Katy Lam: "I can't tell you how much I disagree with her.

"People who are lawfully in this country, who have been working in our communities, our neighbours... to reach in and remove them from our country - for 'cultural reasons'. That is how far the Conservative party has sunk."
October 23, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
(if anyone would like to maybe start some sort of campaigning or pressure group of and on behalf of immigrants with ILR and settled status in Britain then I would be interested in helping, or indeed trying to get it off the ground myself, email in bio, etc)
October 22, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Draft Tory legislation on removing indefinite leave to remain is insane.

Would chuck out those not earning over £38K - including many pensioners!

+ social protections seems to include child benefit, so load of people with (British!) kids!

They'd remove my sis & mum who've been here 50 years.
October 22, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Here Lam explicitly sets out her proposal - which is official Conservative Party policy - to deport long-standing legal permanent residents who have *ever* claimed any benefit, including the state pension or child benefit (even if the child is British), or who earn less than £39K.
October 21, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
you can currently claim at least partial child benefits if you're earning up to 80k so that would be, in theory.......basically all parents on ILR and settled status? wtaf
Here Lam explicitly sets out her proposal - which is official Conservative Party policy - to deport long-standing legal permanent residents who have *ever* claimed any benefit, including the state pension or child benefit (even if the child is British), or who earn less than £39K.
October 22, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Tragically, once you introduce costly signaling, all mathematics is impure.

COMIC ◆ www.smbc-comics.com/comic/signal-4
PATREON ◆ www.patreon.com/ZachWeinersm...
STORE ◆ smbc-store.myshopify.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Worth saying that despite asking for more than 12 hours we’ve had nothing back from Labour on this
A Conservative MP tipped as a future party leader has been condemned for saying large numbers of legally settled families must be deported, in order to ensure the UK is mostly “culturally coherent”.

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Tory MP criticised after demanding legally settled families be deported
Katie Lam said move would make UK ‘culturally coherent’ and that a large number of people ‘need to go home’
www.theguardian.com
October 20, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
This in FT this morning 👇
October 20, 2025 at 6:34 AM