Sebastian van Baalen
@sebastianvanbaalen.se
Associate Professor at the Dep. of Peace & Conflict Research, Uppsala University (@uupeace.bsky.social). Researching dynamics of civil war, rebel governance, civil resistance, electoral violence, postwar violence, Côte d’Ivoire.
www.sebastianvanbaalen.se
www.sebastianvanbaalen.se
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🆕 Excited that @andresuribe.bsky.social and my joint work is out 🔓 open-access in @cpsjournal.bsky.social We study under what conditions rebels succeed in establishing rebel governance in areas dominated by the state. A thread 🧵
Conflictsky @polviolencepapers.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1177/0010...
Conflictsky @polviolencepapers.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1177/0010...
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Intrastate armed conflicts have increasingly internationalized. In TraCe Working Paper No. 7, Frederik Schissler, @felixbethke.bsky.social, @hannapfeifer.bsky.social, Constantin Ruhe, @reginesonja.bsky.social & Jonas Wolff systematically assess this trend.
👉 www.trace-center.de/publikatione...
👉 www.trace-center.de/publikatione...
January 30, 2026 at 12:25 PM
Intrastate armed conflicts have increasingly internationalized. In TraCe Working Paper No. 7, Frederik Schissler, @felixbethke.bsky.social, @hannapfeifer.bsky.social, Constantin Ruhe, @reginesonja.bsky.social & Jonas Wolff systematically assess this trend.
👉 www.trace-center.de/publikatione...
👉 www.trace-center.de/publikatione...
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
I came to Minneapolis to report on what's going on, and one of the main questions I showed up with is "just what is the scale of the resistance?" After all, we're all used to the news calling Portland a "war zone" or whatever when it's just some protests in one part of town.
January 22, 2026 at 3:58 AM
I came to Minneapolis to report on what's going on, and one of the main questions I showed up with is "just what is the scale of the resistance?" After all, we're all used to the news calling Portland a "war zone" or whatever when it's just some protests in one part of town.
Proud that 🇸🇪 Sweden is among the countries targeted by the Trump administration for standing up for the soverignty of our Danish neighbours!
Trump says eight European countries face 10% tariff for opposing US control of Greenland – Europe live
Trump says eight European countries face 10% tariff for opposing US control of Greenland – Europe live
Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands and Finland will face tariffs from 1 February
www.theguardian.com
January 17, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Proud that 🇸🇪 Sweden is among the countries targeted by the Trump administration for standing up for the soverignty of our Danish neighbours!
📨 If you have suggestions or requests, feel free to reach out here or submit an issue on GitHub.
January 14, 2026 at 3:57 PM
📨 If you have suggestions or requests, feel free to reach out here or submit an issue on GitHub.
🛠️ The package is still under development, and I’d be very happy to hear from people who might want:
• additional templates
• small usability improvements
• features tailored to teaching or publication workflows
• additional templates
• small usability improvements
• features tailored to teaching or publication workflows
January 14, 2026 at 3:57 PM
🛠️ The package is still under development, and I’d be very happy to hear from people who might want:
• additional templates
• small usability improvements
• features tailored to teaching or publication workflows
• additional templates
• small usability improvements
• features tailored to teaching or publication workflows
📊 The idea is simple: instead of spending time fighting with Word shapes or TikZ, you choose a template (e.g. single or multi-step mechanisms, parallel pathways, moderators, confounders), add your variable labels, and get a consistent causal process plot.
January 14, 2026 at 3:57 PM
📊 The idea is simple: instead of spending time fighting with Word shapes or TikZ, you choose a template (e.g. single or multi-step mechanisms, parallel pathways, moderators, confounders), add your variable labels, and get a consistent causal process plot.
📦 I got tired of constantly battling TikZ or Word for decent causal diagrams, so decided to do something about it. Here is a first public version of 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘁, an R package for creating clean, publication-ready causal diagrams with minimal effort. #rstats
github.com/sebastianvan...
github.com/sebastianvan...
GitHub - sebastianvanbaalen/causalplot: Create Causal Diagrams Using A Simple Convencience Function
Create Causal Diagrams Using A Simple Convencience Function - sebastianvanbaalen/causalplot
github.com
January 14, 2026 at 3:57 PM
📦 I got tired of constantly battling TikZ or Word for decent causal diagrams, so decided to do something about it. Here is a first public version of 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘁, an R package for creating clean, publication-ready causal diagrams with minimal effort. #rstats
github.com/sebastianvan...
github.com/sebastianvan...
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Important piece from @yguichaoua.bsky.social @wlacher.bsky.social. As someone who is wondering whether she should continue to teach "International conflict management" rename the class "conflict making" or eliminate it, I'd like to offer a friendly critique. 1/11 dissentmagazine.org/article/the-...
The Demise of Conflict Studies - Dissent Magazine
An entire industry specializing in mediation, peacekeeping, disarmament, and transitional justice has become largely obsolete.
dissentmagazine.org
January 13, 2026 at 11:58 AM
Important piece from @yguichaoua.bsky.social @wlacher.bsky.social. As someone who is wondering whether she should continue to teach "International conflict management" rename the class "conflict making" or eliminate it, I'd like to offer a friendly critique. 1/11 dissentmagazine.org/article/the-...
As a CRS member this sounds like an excellent idea! Perhaps a round table on the topic would be a good idea?
January 13, 2026 at 7:26 PM
As a CRS member this sounds like an excellent idea! Perhaps a round table on the topic would be a good idea?
Looks very useful! Thank you 😊
November 11, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Looks very useful! Thank you 😊
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Developed a new #RStats package to access sub-national boundary spatial data (UN OCHA COD and geoBoundaries datasets) from the excellent fieldmaps project. Using #DuckDB and #geoarrow to efficiently query remote parquet and convert to sf #RSpatial #GIS
github.com/epicentre-ms...
github.com/epicentre-ms...
GitHub - epicentre-msf/fieldmaps: R Interface to Fieldmaps Data
R Interface to Fieldmaps Data. Contribute to epicentre-msf/fieldmaps development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
November 4, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
dear US friends, when a sitting president (re)builds the seat of government, it almost always means the president has no intention of leaving at the end of term. your African friends with decades of experience
October 24, 2025 at 1:39 PM
dear US friends, when a sitting president (re)builds the seat of government, it almost always means the president has no intention of leaving at the end of term. your African friends with decades of experience
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Any American medium that fails to cover the largest protests in American history is failing in the basic mission of informing the public about the facts.
#NoKings
#NoKings
October 18, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Any American medium that fails to cover the largest protests in American history is failing in the basic mission of informing the public about the facts.
#NoKings
#NoKings
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
notice the general mood of the timeline? how everyone is in a good mood and there’s a lot less misery and dooming? how there’s a lot of “we’re going to beat these assholes”?
anyway that’s why these events are important
anyway that’s why these events are important
October 18, 2025 at 6:54 PM
notice the general mood of the timeline? how everyone is in a good mood and there’s a lot less misery and dooming? how there’s a lot of “we’re going to beat these assholes”?
anyway that’s why these events are important
anyway that’s why these events are important
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
I'm of the view that, when @adamprz.bsky.social writes about democracy, we should pay a lot of attention... adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/musings-1
September 30, 2025 at 6:18 PM
I'm of the view that, when @adamprz.bsky.social writes about democracy, we should pay a lot of attention... adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/musings-1
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Przeworski says it cleanly, clearly, and convincingly.
What then must we do?
www.dissentmagazine.org/article/how-...
What then must we do?
www.dissentmagazine.org/article/how-...
September 27, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Przeworski says it cleanly, clearly, and convincingly.
What then must we do?
www.dissentmagazine.org/article/how-...
What then must we do?
www.dissentmagazine.org/article/how-...
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
DEBATT | Det är vårt ansvar att yttra oss, skriver 122 experter inom fred, säkerhet, utveckling, folkrätt och mänskliga rättigheter. www.dagensarena.se/opinion/sver...
Sverige lever inte upp till internationella åtaganden att förhindra folkmord | Dagens Arena
Det är vårt ansvar att yttra oss, skriver 122 experter.
www.dagensarena.se
September 24, 2025 at 7:50 AM
DEBATT | Det är vårt ansvar att yttra oss, skriver 122 experter inom fred, säkerhet, utveckling, folkrätt och mänskliga rättigheter. www.dagensarena.se/opinion/sver...
Excellent text by Henrique Garbino on why leaving the Ottawa convention is a bad idea! ⤵️
theloop.ecpr.eu/are-landmine...
theloop.ecpr.eu/are-landmine...
Are landmines legitimate self-defence? The folly of leaving the Ottawa Convention
The Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel landmines is under serious challenge. In 2025, six state parties — Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland and Ukraine — began the procedure to withdra...
theloop.ecpr.eu
September 24, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Excellent text by Henrique Garbino on why leaving the Ottawa convention is a bad idea! ⤵️
theloop.ecpr.eu/are-landmine...
theloop.ecpr.eu/are-landmine...
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
This is absurd. But to be honest, we all should have left academia.edu ages ago because of their spamming. Their "AI-generated professional podcasts" of papers are another very good reason to delete your account. Good riddance!
September 21, 2025 at 8:52 AM
This is absurd. But to be honest, we all should have left academia.edu ages ago because of their spamming. Their "AI-generated professional podcasts" of papers are another very good reason to delete your account. Good riddance!
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
New publication alert: "Legacies of Repression and Resistance in Early 20th Century Europe", at Comparative Political Studies. With @andrearuggeri.bsky.social and @apvjustino.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Legacies of Repression and Resistance in Early 20th Century Europe - Andrea Ruggeri, Laia Balcells, Patricia Justino, 2025
Authoritarian and violent experiences affect the institutional settings of post-dictatorial regimes. However, we still lack a comprehensive knowledge on how loc...
journals.sagepub.com
September 7, 2025 at 2:19 AM
New publication alert: "Legacies of Repression and Resistance in Early 20th Century Europe", at Comparative Political Studies. With @andrearuggeri.bsky.social and @apvjustino.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
The International Association of Genocide Scholars has adopted (with 90% of its members in favor) a resolution calling what’s happening in Gaza a genocide genocidescholars.org/wp-content/u...
genocidescholars.org
September 1, 2025 at 8:18 PM
The International Association of Genocide Scholars has adopted (with 90% of its members in favor) a resolution calling what’s happening in Gaza a genocide genocidescholars.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Sánchez: Europe’s response to war in Gaza has been a ‘failure’
Sánchez: Europe’s response to war in Gaza has been a ‘failure’
Spanish prime minister says double standards over Gaza and Ukraine threaten to undermine the west’s global standing
*
‘You need solidarity and consistency’: Pedro Sánchez on the EU, Trump and fighting the far right
Europe and the west’s double standards over the wars in Ukraine and Gaza threaten to undermine its global standing, the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has warned, describing the response to Israel’s assault on the Palestinian territory as one of the darkest episodes of international relations in the 21st century.
In an interview with the Guardian before talks with UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, in London on Wednesday, the socialist leader also said the US under Donald Trump was trying to end the post-second world war, rules-based global order it had originally created. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
September 3, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Sánchez: Europe’s response to war in Gaza has been a ‘failure’
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
“People who are experts in the study of genocide can see this situation for what it is,” Melanie O’Brien, the organization’s president and a professor of international law at the University of Western Australia, told The Associated Press.
September 1, 2025 at 1:09 PM
“People who are experts in the study of genocide can see this situation for what it is,” Melanie O’Brien, the organization’s president and a professor of international law at the University of Western Australia, told The Associated Press.
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
Frankly I’m surprised more comparativists aren’t saying, “Aw that’s so cute. America’s having its first little premature rumor and speculation frenzy about the autocrat’s death after his public absence for a brief period” (common in authoritarian regimes)
August 30, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Frankly I’m surprised more comparativists aren’t saying, “Aw that’s so cute. America’s having its first little premature rumor and speculation frenzy about the autocrat’s death after his public absence for a brief period” (common in authoritarian regimes)
Reposted by Sebastian van Baalen
The precise moment when and where in recent weeks America crossed that invisible line from democracy into authoritarianism can and will be debated by future historians, but it’s clear that the line itself has been crossed. www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/america-ti...
America Tips Into Fascism
Today is different than before.
www.doomsdayscenario.co
August 25, 2025 at 3:32 PM
The precise moment when and where in recent weeks America crossed that invisible line from democracy into authoritarianism can and will be debated by future historians, but it’s clear that the line itself has been crossed. www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/america-ti...