Holly Breslin
hollybreslin.bsky.social
Holly Breslin
@hollybreslin.bsky.social
🇺🇸 / 🇪🇺 citizen Zionist Reform Jew who loves all things EU / US / Israeli politics, technology and defence
Reposted by Holly Breslin
Six-member Core Europe: a bad good idea
Six-member Core Europe: a bad good idea
In the ever-evolving theatre of European politics, Germany has once again taken the stage with a proposal that sounds like a plot twist from a bureaucratic thriller. Enter the “E6,” a core group of six leading EU economies – Germany, France, Poland, Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands – championed by German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and his French counterpart, Roland Lescure. Unveiled in late January 2026 amid a video conference that felt more like a Zoom happy hour for fiscal heavyweights, the idea is to create a “two-speed” Europe. The E6 would bypass the EU’s glacial consensus model, where every decision requires the nod from all 27 members, to accelerate progress on defence cooperation, capital markets union, euro strengthening, and securing critical raw materials. The motives? Pure pragmatism laced with urgency. With geopolitical storm clouds gathering – Russia’s shadow lingering, China’s economic might flexing, and a potentially isolationist America under Trump 2.0 – the duo argues that the EU’s decision-making paralysis is a luxury Europe can no longer afford. Klingbeil, at a Berlin event, declared it “time for differentiated integration,” envisioning the E6 as a pacemaker for the bloc’s sluggish heart. These six nations, accounting for about 70% of the EU’s GDP, would lead the charge, inviting others to tag along later. It’s sold as a booster shot for sovereignty and competitiveness, a way to make Europe less dependent on external powers and more nimble in a multipolar world. Who could argue with that? At first glance, the allure is undeniable. And beautiful as a six-blade knife. Efficiency in EU decision-making? Sign me up! The current system, where a single veto from Budapest or The Hague can derail continent-wide initiatives, often looks like a killer switch embedded in the EU software. A streamlined core could cut through the red tape, fostering quicker deals on defence procurement or raw material supply chains. In an era of hybrid threats and economic warfare, a faster Europe might just be the tonic needed to keep the union from unravelling like a cheap sweater. But peel back the layers, and the geopolitical signals this sends are as subtle as a foghorn in a library. To the world – and crucially, to the EU’s own periphery – the E6 whispers that the union has bitten off more than it can chew. After decades of enlargement, from the original six to today’s 27, this core suggests a tacit admission: we’ve expanded too much, time to slim down. Geographically, it fractures the map into a triptych of unease. There’s the shiny E6 nucleus in the west and center; the pragmatic Nordics – Sweden, Finland, Denmark and the Baltics – already eyeing tighter integration among themselves; and then the sprawling southern and central expanse, from Hungary through Romania down to Greece and Cyprus. This “third Europe” is a patchwork quilt of divergent interests, less inclined to cozy up in harmony. Take the Visegrad Group as a cautionary tale: Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary’s alliance has sputtered like a vintage Lada, derailed by electoral mood swings and clashing capitals. One election cycle, they’re united against Brussels; the next, they’re at each other’s throats. This vast territory? We might dub it “Macedonia” – not the ancient empire of Alexander, but the fruit salad, a tutti-frutti mishmash of flavors that clash more than complement. Handing such division on a silver platter would be a geopolitical bonanza for adversaries: a gift-wrapped invitation for Putin (or his successor) to meddle in the east, Erdogan (or his) to stir the Mediterranean pot, and Xi to exploit economic fissures with Belt and Road baits. Moreover, the E6 itself is a study in inconsistency, a club where the members might not even agree on the dress code. Spain and Poland sit at opposite poles on migration – Madrid’s more open arms versus Warsaw’s fortified borders – or defence, with varying commitments to NATO spending. Even the Franco-German engine chugs unevenly: witness the Mercosur trade deal, where France frets over Amazon deforestation and beef imports, while Germany eyes export bonanzas for its auto giants. Such rifts dwarf those between, say, Poland and Romania, who share more in historical scars and security anxieties. And why isolate Belgium? Is it petty payback for Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s principled stand against confiscating Russian assets? Excluding Denmark, meanwhile, is like dangling Arctic bait before a resurgent Trump or his veep JD Vance – eager as ever to grab Greenland, and possibly also Iceland and Svalbard. Yet, let’s end on a constructive note, lest we descend into pure pessimism. Europe does need a core, or rather it consist of a core of 27-strong union, bolstered by a vibrant periphery of candidates – not just the eastern hopefuls like Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans, but potential northern and western expansions. Better decision-making demands not exclusionary cliques, but superior proposals that unite rather than divide, emerging from the Berlaymont’s halls without the current whiff of discord. After all, it was Germany and France who handpicked the current Commission leadership. Perhaps a hearty mea culpa from Berlin and Paris would serve better than dismantling the edifice built over decades. In the end, Europe’s strength lies in its messy inclusivity, not a polished but perilous elite. Let’s not trade unity for speed – lest we crash. Caption: German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (L) and French Finance Minister Roland Lescure (R) arrive to speak to the media during the Eurogroup finance ministers attend a meeting in Brussels, Belgium, 19 January 2026. EPA/OLIVIER HOSLET
eualive.net
February 1, 2026 at 6:01 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
I talked to @anneapplebaum.bsky.social about the role that politicizing the public sector and civil service plays:
“It’s a red flag when you see so many people saying, My god. This is so illegal that we cannot, in good conscience, stick around any longer.”
www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/202...
Rise of the Trump Loyalist
The destruction of the civil service can destroy democracy, too.
www.theatlantic.com
January 31, 2026 at 3:19 PM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
here's the precinct data gist.github.com/elliottmorri...
tx sd 9 special results
tx sd 9 special results . GitHub Gist: instantly share code, notes, and snippets.
gist.github.com
February 1, 2026 at 6:27 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
You know who really ought to pay attention the result in TX Sen 9? Democratic leadership in Congress.
February 1, 2026 at 5:15 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
Two things can be true: we’re a competitive authoritarian state with all sorts of efforts to put a thumb on the scale of who has power AND we have sufficiently free and sufficiently fair elections that every month we see the party in power lose.
JUST IN: Democrats flip a red seat in the Texas Senate.

Taylor Rehmet wins against Leigh Wambsganss, a conservative activist who helped lead right-wing efforts to take over TX school boards.

With all early vote, and 95% of precincts, in, Dem up 57/43.

Trump won this seat by 17% in Tarrant County.
February 1, 2026 at 6:28 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
3. An expiration date does matter hence 3rd term talk. Doesn't have to achieve a 3rd term to stall decline.
4. Civil resistance weakens perception of strength which matters a lot.
5. State capacity decline (which I argue is tied to Trump's hate for being a sucker) also matters. Eventually...

2/2
February 1, 2026 at 6:39 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
Some key points from this excellent short piece by @jeffkopstein.bsky.social & Hanson:

1. This is a patrimonial regime that is undoing modern statehood.
2. Gaffes, dementia, inconsistencies, and the courts won't stop it. Some of these actually bolster it.

1/2
America Is Now a Family Business
Trump is transforming the constitutional republic into a patrimonial regime before our eyes.
www.persuasion.community
February 1, 2026 at 6:39 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
New on the personalist regime:

From an IR perspective, from @seva.bsky.social

hegemon.substack.com/p/taking-glo...

From a comparative perspective, from Stephen E Hanson & @jeffkopstein.bsky.social

www.persuasion.community/p/the-patrim...
America Is Now a Family Business
Trump is transforming the constitutional republic into a patrimonial regime before our eyes.
www.persuasion.community
January 27, 2026 at 4:42 PM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
You might think nobody's trying to rig township auditor or local water board races (and you'd be wrong, tiny local offices are *most* susceptible to shenanigans). But it's all run off the same system, the same procedures, agencies, workers, laws etc. You can't really break only part of that machine.
February 1, 2026 at 6:42 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
There are more than half a million elected offices in the United States. There are tens of thousands of elections conducted ever year other than those on the November biennial.

Fun fact: that works out to about one elected office for every 500 American adults.
I will say that one of the reasons I'm deeply frustrated with the "like they're ever going to have elections again" doomerism is that it's big "oh so you REALLY only think there are elections every 4 years, or 2 at best?"

man the number of elections we've been having this whole time.
February 1, 2026 at 6:33 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
One day, the regime's white elephant monuments erected in the nation's capital will be eyed for demolition as a symbol of past oppression.

We've seen this movie before.
Exclusive: President Trump wants to build a 250-foot-tall structure in D.C.

The planned Independence Arch is intended to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary.

It would also be taller than both the White House and the Lincoln Memorial.
Trump wants to build a 250-foot-tall arch, dwarfing the Lincoln Memorial
The president is eying a plot of land near Memorial Bridge. The art critic who proposed the idea called for a smaller arch or for Trump to pick a new site.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 31, 2026 at 3:18 PM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
“Perhaps most Gaulling” was right there….
January 31, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
The creation of a new EU Customs Agency is part of an ambitious overhaul of the bloc’s customs law to efficiently deal with an uncheckable amount of risky shipments.

EU institutions are now selecting a city to host the EUCA — here’s how they line up 👇

www.politico.eu/article/plac...
January 31, 2026 at 3:24 PM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
I can't believe I have to say this but journalism is not a crime.

Don Lemon
Georgia Fort
Jamael Lundy
Trahern Crews

These four journalists were doing their job.

And it's hard not to notice that all four are Black.

Reporting while Black is not a crime.
January 30, 2026 at 5:22 PM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
Even the movie Selma goes into this. It was specifically to provoke a response that would horrify the public.
Everyone needs to read “Waging a Good War.”

It’s short, informative, and explains the brilliant tactical reasoning that the civil rights leaders used - including “intentionally getting arrested.”
January 31, 2026 at 5:25 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
Synthesis: convince your local Democratic Party electeds to support proportional representation
January 31, 2026 at 5:48 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
The better idea is to get engaged with your Democratic Party at the local level.

Parties are pulled the direction by the most active groups in their foundations.

A vote for the Green Party without proportional representation empowers the fascists
We HAVE to leave the Dem Party behind right NOW.

They’re utterly corrupt, will never fight for us, fix damage done, or bring criminal charges against high powered/wealthy ppl including Trump.

I’ve suggested flooding the Green Party and pumping it with life. But if there’s a better idea let’s go.
January 31, 2026 at 5:34 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
to any members of the Chinese military who just got purged: Cool Zone is hiring and we NEED people with experience planning for a land war with India
share.google/7dcz1IAlZcOV...
Why Xi Jinping Has Purged His Top Military Leaders
China’s armed forces are in the midst of one of the most sweeping shakeups of the Xi Jinping era, with a steady stream of senior generals vanishing from public view or being formally purged. A corrupt...
share.google
January 31, 2026 at 5:52 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
January 31, 2026 at 6:06 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
In an interview with AFP, top EU official Teresa Ribera described her "shock" at the "terrifying" images of violence in Minneapolis www.france24.com/en/live-news...
Top EU official voices 'shock' at Minneapolis violence
Top EU official Teresa Ribera on Friday described her "shock" at the "terrifying" images of violence in Minneapolis where two American citizens were shot dead by federal agents enforcing an immigratio...
www.france24.com
January 31, 2026 at 6:42 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
This works best if you imagine a delusional eccentric who has watched too many motivational videos shouting at themselves in a mirror.
January 31, 2026 at 8:36 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
Elon Musk turned from business to politics in the early months of Donald Trump's presidency and also backed European far-right parties; now the blowback is killing his car business on the continent.
How Elon Musk cost Tesla the European market
Sales cratered in Europe after the car company CEO turned to politics.
www.politico.eu
January 31, 2026 at 8:57 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
"In this moment, political reliability is more important than product-market fit. Bezos can afford to lose $80 million on a stupid movie, or $100 million on a newspaper. What he can’t afford is to find himself on the wrong side of Trump."
All the President's Bozos
Bari Weiss, the Washington Post, the Melania movie, and Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit.
lnk.thebulwark.com
January 31, 2026 at 9:01 AM
Reposted by Holly Breslin
I spoke to WNYC's On The Media about the Verification, Deliberation, Accountability framework I've developed, and how, without major interventions, it predicts the inevitable slide of democracies into populism, conspiracy, and, finally, authoritarianism
www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm...
Videos of ICE Violence Are Plentiful. Accountability.… Not So Much. | On the Media | WNYC Studios
The Trump administration called Alex Pretti, who was shot and killed by federal officers, a “domestic terrorist.” And then bystander footage flooded the internet. On this week’s On th...
www.wnycstudios.org
January 31, 2026 at 9:01 AM