@jcfin.bsky.social
Jesus, the economy is pumping. With such low hiring is it all coming from priductivity? Is ai actually starting to bleed through into the data? www.atlantafed.org/-/media/Imag...
www.atlantafed.org
January 8, 2026 at 5:22 PM
Jesus, the economy is pumping. With such low hiring is it all coming from priductivity? Is ai actually starting to bleed through into the data? www.atlantafed.org/-/media/Imag...
Reposted
Whoa. This new GDPval score for GPT-5.2 is something.
GDPval is probably the most economically relevant measure of AI ability, suggesting that in head-to-head competition with human experts on tasks that require 4-8 hours for a human to do, GPT-5.2 wins 71% of the time as judged by other humans.
GDPval is probably the most economically relevant measure of AI ability, suggesting that in head-to-head competition with human experts on tasks that require 4-8 hours for a human to do, GPT-5.2 wins 71% of the time as judged by other humans.
December 11, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Whoa. This new GDPval score for GPT-5.2 is something.
GDPval is probably the most economically relevant measure of AI ability, suggesting that in head-to-head competition with human experts on tasks that require 4-8 hours for a human to do, GPT-5.2 wins 71% of the time as judged by other humans.
GDPval is probably the most economically relevant measure of AI ability, suggesting that in head-to-head competition with human experts on tasks that require 4-8 hours for a human to do, GPT-5.2 wins 71% of the time as judged by other humans.
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I understand MAGA is insisting the signature isn't Trump's but the WSJ piece nicely shows how the signature matches other letters he signed.
September 8, 2025 at 10:10 PM
I understand MAGA is insisting the signature isn't Trump's but the WSJ piece nicely shows how the signature matches other letters he signed.
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I'm not sure which is more damning, that the Atlantic is running essays like this unedited, or the appalling possibility that this *was* edited.
read this article if you want to feel like what it's like to read punditry that is completely shadowboxing the author's fantasy
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
The Abundance Delusion
I mean, what even is a Democrat at this point?
www.theatlantic.com
September 8, 2025 at 3:22 PM
I'm not sure which is more damning, that the Atlantic is running essays like this unedited, or the appalling possibility that this *was* edited.
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My entire life the pattern has been
1. Republican president ruins economy.
2. We elect Dems to fix it.
3. Republicans obstruct pace of progress and people get frustrated with Dems.
4. We elect a Republican president
5. Go back to step 1.
1. Republican president ruins economy.
2. We elect Dems to fix it.
3. Republicans obstruct pace of progress and people get frustrated with Dems.
4. We elect a Republican president
5. Go back to step 1.
September 8, 2025 at 1:39 PM
My entire life the pattern has been
1. Republican president ruins economy.
2. We elect Dems to fix it.
3. Republicans obstruct pace of progress and people get frustrated with Dems.
4. We elect a Republican president
5. Go back to step 1.
1. Republican president ruins economy.
2. We elect Dems to fix it.
3. Republicans obstruct pace of progress and people get frustrated with Dems.
4. We elect a Republican president
5. Go back to step 1.
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Klein lays out what he thinks the message and tactics should be (while acknowledging he is not sure if this will work politically)
September 7, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Klein lays out what he thinks the message and tactics should be (while acknowledging he is not sure if this will work politically)
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Reminder (my personal bias is somewhere around 2, maybe slightly lower, but higher than 3).
September 5, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Reminder (my personal bias is somewhere around 2, maybe slightly lower, but higher than 3).
Reposted
"The United States paid nothing for these Shares" is an interesting way of describing "the U.S. released $8.9B in CHIPS funding intended for Intel in exchange for $8.9B in stock."
Perhaps Congress could've demanded shares for CHIPS money, but POTUS adding this ad hoc is simply unconstitutional.
Perhaps Congress could've demanded shares for CHIPS money, but POTUS adding this ad hoc is simply unconstitutional.
The President of the United States is a gangster shaking down anyone who won’t pay up
August 22, 2025 at 10:46 PM
"The United States paid nothing for these Shares" is an interesting way of describing "the U.S. released $8.9B in CHIPS funding intended for Intel in exchange for $8.9B in stock."
Perhaps Congress could've demanded shares for CHIPS money, but POTUS adding this ad hoc is simply unconstitutional.
Perhaps Congress could've demanded shares for CHIPS money, but POTUS adding this ad hoc is simply unconstitutional.
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Just an innocent bystander, no doubt just out walking his dog.
August 13, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Just an innocent bystander, no doubt just out walking his dog.
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For all the hopes of an AI-driven productivity boom, its just not showing up in reality.
August 9, 2025 at 5:13 PM
For all the hopes of an AI-driven productivity boom, its just not showing up in reality.
Reposted
US labor productivity rebounded in Q2, creeping up to a new all-time high after dropping significantly in Q1
Overall productivity growth has still been noticeably faster post-COVID than pre-COVID
Overall productivity growth has still been noticeably faster post-COVID than pre-COVID
August 8, 2025 at 12:57 PM
US labor productivity rebounded in Q2, creeping up to a new all-time high after dropping significantly in Q1
Overall productivity growth has still been noticeably faster post-COVID than pre-COVID
Overall productivity growth has still been noticeably faster post-COVID than pre-COVID
Reposted
"why are stocks rising instead of falling because Orange Man Bad" maybe because guidance raises outnumbered guidance cuts by 60 reports last week, 99th percentile since 2001. Absolute number of guidance hikes was 84, in the 98.9th percentile for all weeks since 2001. Crazy strong!
August 4, 2025 at 2:35 PM
"why are stocks rising instead of falling because Orange Man Bad" maybe because guidance raises outnumbered guidance cuts by 60 reports last week, 99th percentile since 2001. Absolute number of guidance hikes was 84, in the 98.9th percentile for all weeks since 2001. Crazy strong!
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HUGE: The Trump administration will no longer permit any solar or wind projects on federal lands unless they produce more energy-per-acre than coal, gas or nuclear power plants.
Solar and wind literally produce less energy per acre, so simply this may just kill off any project on federal lands.
Solar and wind literally produce less energy per acre, so simply this may just kill off any project on federal lands.
Interior Order Chokes Off Permits for Solar and Wind on Federal Lands
The department creates a seemingly impossible new permitting criteria for renewable energy.
heatmap.news
August 2, 2025 at 2:18 AM
HUGE: The Trump administration will no longer permit any solar or wind projects on federal lands unless they produce more energy-per-acre than coal, gas or nuclear power plants.
Solar and wind literally produce less energy per acre, so simply this may just kill off any project on federal lands.
Solar and wind literally produce less energy per acre, so simply this may just kill off any project on federal lands.
If Trump had said the level of revisions is far out of line than typical and changes are needed at the bls to be more accurate, would that have been accurate? Obviously he made it political, but the below implies this last report was very abnormal. Usually abnormal means rough times #econ
August 2, 2025 at 1:44 PM
If Trump had said the level of revisions is far out of line than typical and changes are needed at the bls to be more accurate, would that have been accurate? Obviously he made it political, but the below implies this last report was very abnormal. Usually abnormal means rough times #econ
Reposted
My prediction is that in that scenario, he blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which puts out employment data. Calls them corrupt, run by Democrats, out to get him. Fires people there, insists their numbers cannot be trusted, White House puts out its own fictitious data to make Trump look good
April 17, 2025 at 11:54 AM
My prediction is that in that scenario, he blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which puts out employment data. Calls them corrupt, run by Democrats, out to get him. Fires people there, insists their numbers cannot be trusted, White House puts out its own fictitious data to make Trump look good
Looks like we owe adp job numbers an apology
August 1, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Looks like we owe adp job numbers an apology
Reposted
July 16, 2025 at 4:55 PM
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In fact, young men with a college degree now have the same unemployment rate as young men who didn’t go to college, completely erasing the graduate employment premium.
Whereas a healthy premium remains for young women.
Whereas a healthy premium remains for young women.
July 18, 2025 at 2:48 PM
In fact, young men with a college degree now have the same unemployment rate as young men who didn’t go to college, completely erasing the graduate employment premium.
Whereas a healthy premium remains for young women.
Whereas a healthy premium remains for young women.
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here are four different images of the new york skyline trump has auctioned for charity
July 18, 2025 at 2:10 AM
here are four different images of the new york skyline trump has auctioned for charity
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The second answer is that the tariffs ARE showing up in the data, just subtly so far. Yesterday's CPI numbers showed clear evidence of tariffs hitting certain categories, like appliances. Data from the Harvard Pricing Lab shows that prices for imported goods have risen sharply.
July 16, 2025 at 1:33 PM
The second answer is that the tariffs ARE showing up in the data, just subtly so far. Yesterday's CPI numbers showed clear evidence of tariffs hitting certain categories, like appliances. Data from the Harvard Pricing Lab shows that prices for imported goods have risen sharply.
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Interesting study findings here on GLP1s and neurodegenerative diseases. No real benefits for mild cognitive impairment, Parkinson's(but wide CI) but seemingly significant benefits for dementia(HR 0.63! CI 0.50-0.81) and ischemic CVA.
Would love some RCT data on dementia and GLP1 anytime now!
Would love some RCT data on dementia and GLP1 anytime now!
July 15, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Interesting study findings here on GLP1s and neurodegenerative diseases. No real benefits for mild cognitive impairment, Parkinson's(but wide CI) but seemingly significant benefits for dementia(HR 0.63! CI 0.50-0.81) and ischemic CVA.
Would love some RCT data on dementia and GLP1 anytime now!
Would love some RCT data on dementia and GLP1 anytime now!
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Real consumer spending dead stopped growing in 2025, per @jaredb-econ.bsky.social.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...
#NumbersDay #EconSky
econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...
July 13, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Real consumer spending dead stopped growing in 2025, per @jaredb-econ.bsky.social.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...
#NumbersDay #EconSky
econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...