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Paul Johnson

@paulrjohnson.net

1.6K followers 780 following 750 posts

Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him Website: https://paulrjohnson.net Github: https://github.com/paulj1989

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Nov 11

I recently wrote a blog post about the impact of clubs’ financial resources on football outcomes.

paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10...

The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.

Analysing Money’s Effect on Football Using Multilevel Regression – Paul Johnson

What if I told you that we can use statistics to laugh at the silly football teams too?

paulrjohnson.net

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Reposted by Paul Johnson

Annie Kelly @annieknk.bsky.social · 10d

With this ringing endorsement, if you'd like to understand what deeply evil nonsense the literal President of the United States is promoting now please do listen! on.soundcloud.com/0SJT1Mcqx8ks...

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 10d

Reducing the numbers of people coming to work and study in the UK will turn this around any second now.

Ipsos in the UK @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social · 10d

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos

📉22% is the lowest we’ve recorded for Labour since June 2009
📉14% is the lowest VI share we’ve ever seen (since 1976) for the Conservatives

Headline voting intention: September 2025
Reform UK 34%
Labour 22%
Conservative 14%
Lib Dems 12%
Green Party 12%
Other 6%
Reform lead = +12

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 13d

It is so incredibly grim that this is happening, that folks don't seem to believe it is happening (or do not appreciate the extent), and that Labour have been so weak in their response.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 13d

I have had a large number of people say they simply did not understand the extent without posting the actual examples. Hence my approach to doing so

It remains the case that compelling evidence of just how much we are tolerating has yet to wake up those with actual responsibility and power yo act.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 13d

Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 13d

It drives me insane that no one seems to be able to make a case for the North without demonizing London. I think everyone, including a lot of ordinary folks in London, could benefit from lifting up some of the big cities up North so they can compete with London.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 13d

Burnham’s positioning in the NS and Telegraph is essentially “I will continue to deny the constraints like Keir Starmer, while being even more explicitly hostile to London and the South, where a majority of parliamentary seats are”. Hard to see how that works well for Labour.

Michael @michaeljsc.bsky.social · 13d

not enthused by the Burnham Manifesto as set out here archive.is/9ylaW

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Mehmet Yavuz @yavuzmehmet.bsky.social · 29d

Excited to announce the publication of my article in Comparative Political Studies on how crises shape the ideological legitimation strategies of authoritarian regimes. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 15d

Southampton Football Club

The Ineffable Horror of Joe Muggs @joemuggs.bsky.social · 15d

What’s the most Tory-coded thing you actively love?

Me: Essex. Elgar. Country pubs.

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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 20d

Exactly this. If the Democrats win, they have to do more than just govern: they have to make sure that backsliding can never happen again. That will take more than just tinkering around the edges, otherwise there will be another Trump in the future.

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 20d

"the hard data suggests that the largest of the UK’s very real problems are no more being caused by mass immigration than they are by a group of charity fundraisers rowing past Great Yarmouth"

on.ft.com/3IsyVVu

@timharford.ft.com with his facts and reasonableness

The UK’s problems aren’t caused by immigration

It’s not hard to see how so many came to worry about the issue. But the data isn’t there

on.ft.com

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 20d

That's the one! Cheers.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 20d

What is the name of the bare bones #rstats package that replicates a lot of dplyr functionality? I've completely forgotten what it is called (and I am hoping I didn't make it up in my head).

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Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 21d

Chotiner interview with @lilymasonphd.bsky.social

www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...

Where Political Violence Comes From

Is our era of extreme partisanship to blame?

www.newyorker.com

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David Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 21d

The cowardice and complacency of so much of the UK political class in the face of what is both an obvious moral evil and a serious socio-political threat is as discrediting as it is dispiriting

Zoë Grünewald @zoegrunewald.bsky.social · 21d

Kemi Badenoch refusing to acknowledge that Tommy Robinson is "far-right", now on LBC, and refusing to condemn Elon Musk's words. In fact she says what Musk said *isn't* incitement. So what would be incitement then? How violent would his words have to be before he was deemed a threat to this country?

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 21d

This is outstanding. And, while research doesn’t get much of a hearing these days on identity issues, everything in it is consistent with piles of research. Anti-racism norms don’t drop from the sky. They are built and buttressed by elites drawing red lines. They can be eroded when elites don’t.

Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 23d

superb column from @stephenkb.bsky.social

“racism does not diminish through rising GDP but through the willingness of politicians to argue against it….”

www.ft.com/content/fbbd...

Starmer and Badenoch are handling the far-right march all wrong

A look back to the days of Enoch Powell suggests a better model

www.ft.com

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Reposted by Paul Johnson

Cas Ⓜ️udde @casmudde.bsky.social · 21d

“If you would look away from the words of Charlie Kirk, from what else would you look away?”

Ta-Nehisi Coates nailes it again.

Charlie Kirk, Redeemed: A Political Class Finds Its Lost Cause

By ignoring the rhetoric and actions of the Turning Point USA founder, pundits and politicians are sanitizing his legacy.

www.vanityfair.com

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Reposted by Paul Johnson

Tom Usher @tomusher.bsky.social · 22d

I think really all my life all I’ve ever seen and heard is pretending bad things are actually good and good things are actually bad from politicians and the political media. But the reaction to this weekends protest is maybe some of the most powerful pretending I’ve ever seen

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Michael Hobbes @michaelhobbes.bsky.social · 23d

This is similar to the myth that health conspiracism is driven by dissatisfaction with the American healthcare system. Countries with the best healthcare systems in the world also have very large anti-vaxx movements! In both cases the problem is more closely related to information environments.

Dorian Lynskey @dorianlynskey.bsky.social · 23d

The myth that racism is primarily driven by economic conditions must die, especially on the left. It is a misdiagnosis and a kind of excuse

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d

Calling in sick because I had to replace my coffee beans with baked beans.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d

Follow-up: What is our position on drinking pre-workout like a morning coffee?

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d

Is it okay to call in sick because you don't have any coffee beans?

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d

Is it okay to call in sick because you don't have any coffee beans?

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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 23d

There is a serious failure in UK govt, politics & media to take sufficiently seriously what Musk said & meant with "fight back or die"

= Violence (interethnic civil war) is inevitable so pre-emptive violence - vs migrants, minorities & political opponents - is necessary to avoid existential erasure

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 24d

The common sense meaning should make this Elon Musk's "rivers of blood" moment

Though I think he goes further than Enoch Powell in a couple of important ways

Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 24d

Elon Musk spoke by video to Tommy Robinson's anti-immigrant rally in the UK today.

"You're in a fundamental situation here where, whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming to you," said Musk. "You either fight back or you die."

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d

Chess is the game where you don't have any hair and you cheat your way to victory.

Reposted by Paul Johnson

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 23d

Fetterman simultaneously telling people who study authoritarianism to shut up while revealing he has never read anything they have written

jen sometimes aph 🌻 @bunnibytz.bsky.social · 23d

via @mkraju.bsky.social

Fetterman: “If you actually compare [Trump] to an actual autocrat, it is not just that… This is not an autocrat. This is a product of a democratic election.”

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d

Why don't the teams just play good? Have they considered that tactic? #epl-live

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Tom Saunders @tomsaunders.me · 26d

The Art of Data Visualization with ggplot2: A free online book by @nrennie.bsky.social that guides us through the entire process of creating plots, including why certain decisions were made, using real datasets that have been part of #TidyTuesday. Very excited to get stuck into this one. #rstats

The Art of Data Visualization with ggplot2

The TidyTuesday Cookbook

nrennie.rbind.io

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Reposted by Paul Johnson

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 23d

Not that anyone in politics listens to research, but there is a bucket of research (including some excellent recent studies) which show exactly this. Voters listen to leaders and respond to what they say.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 23d

As I say, it really does demonstrate why political leadership on racism matters - a non-trivial chunk of people will follow where leaders of their big party move. Heath and Wilson proved that in 1968, and Starmer and Badenoch are proving it in 2025.

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