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Peter Fallesen

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H-index: 18
Psychology 26%
Political science 20%
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by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/ryom...
ryomogi.bsky.social
Ryohei Mogi @ryomogi.bsky.social · 29d
Do you know year of Fire Horse? And do you know the total fertility rate dropped 26% in the last fire horse year in Japan?

My new blog post explains how the superstition changed fertility pattern in the last Fire Horse Years (1906, 1966) in Japan.

2026 will be Fire Horse...
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, David Peetz, Karen Benjamin Guzzo

zparolin.bsky.social
New WP: We study how minimum wage increases affect poverty and food hardship in the U.S from 1981-2019. Different from recent work, we study the Supplemental Poverty Measure + two measures of food hardship, factor in cost-of-living differences, and more. www.iza.org/publications...
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Fabrizio Bernardi

europeansocreview.bsky.social
🚀✨The Editorial Board of ESR is growing!

We’re happy to welcome PeterFallesen @pfallesen.bsky.social

( ROCKWOOL Foundation, Denmark) as a new Associate Editor!!

We are thrilled to welcome Peter to the Editorial Board and look forward to working together!

academic.oup.com/esr/pages/Ed...
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Philip N. Cohen, Baptiste Coulmont

ryomogi.bsky.social
Do you know year of Fire Horse? And do you know the total fertility rate dropped 26% in the last fire horse year in Japan?

My new blog post explains how the superstition changed fertility pattern in the last Fire Horse Years (1906, 1966) in Japan.

2026 will be Fire Horse...
1 4 17

by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
I’ll be at the pre-conference workshop on Tuesday
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Mark J. Brandt, Jo Barraket , and 2 more

katyaoivanova.bsky.social
Our #Sociology department is looking for an #AssistantProfessor in the field of Social Inequality (with the possibility for a permanent contract).

www.academictransfer.com/en/jobs/3546...

@sociologytiu.bsky.social @tilburg-university.bsky.social @academic-chatter.bsky.social #academicjobs
Universitair Docent in de Sociologie van Sociale Ongelijkheid
Tilburg University | Tilburg School of Social and Behavioral Sciences is op zoek naar een Universitair Docent in de Sociologie van Sociale Ongelijkheid, Departement Sociologie, locatie Tilburg.
www.academictransfer.com
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Emilio Zagheni

mpidr.bsky.social
🚨Job Offer🚨PhD Student Position
The @lshtm.bsky.social, in partnership with the @mpidr.bsky.social is opening an 18-month Research Assistant position, with the successful candidate embarking on a PhD program at LSHTM.
www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61...
@ezagheni.bsky.social #phd #jobs #demography
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen

mussino.bsky.social
Bologna is calling
EAPS.nl | Call for Submissions
EAPS.nl
www.eaps.nl
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen

signesvallfors.bsky.social
PhD studentship with quantitative focus: su.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
su.varbi.com
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Martin Kreidl , and 1 more

sociologyoxford.bsky.social
🚨 New Job Alert! 🚨

Join Dr @ewabatyra.bsky.social as a Postdoc Researcher in Demography!

Contribute to a global study on disparities in reproductive behaviour, focusing on childbearing age & fertility levels 👨‍👩‍👦‍👦

Apply now 👉 www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/event/postdo...
We're hiring: Postdoctoral Researcher in Demography, deadline: 30 September 2025
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Judith N. Shklar, Christopher J. Sullivan , and 4 more

albalanau.bsky.social
Soon to open offer for a *funded* PhD to study child poverty dynamics at @demosocupf.bsky.social @upf.edu If you have an interest in quantitative methods, social policy and child poverty this may be for you! Feel free to reach out for enquiries
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by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
Helt enig

by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
Nok for tidligt at konkludere, men vi må forvente en stigning inden for en årrække når den del af faldet, der skyldes udsættelse pga øget uddannelsesoptag blandt yngre kvinder, begynder at blive indhentet
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by Simon Hix — Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, David M. Farrell, Maarten Vink

simonhix.bsky.social
This is a fabulous response by my colleague Kevin Munger to "that" Economist piece about the EUI.

Perhaps @spignal.bsky.social and @jhooper.bsky.social might be interested!

kevinmunger.substack.com/p/i-guess-th...
I guess that makes me...Horace Slughorn?
or maybe the centaur named "Firenze"
kevinmunger.substack.com
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by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
New albums from The Armed and from Alex G both been in high rotation in my headphones
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Rebecca Sear, Martin Kreidl , and 1 more

ryomogi.bsky.social
[New finding!]

Ryohei Mogi, Ryota Mugiyama, & Alyce Raybould (@alyceraybould.bsky.social ) has shown that individuals without a romantic partner are more likely to revise their fertility desires downward.‪

‬
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by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
Gambetta and Herzog wrote a book that indirectly tried to parse out the mechanisms by looking at Islamic extremism press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
Engineers of Jihad
A groundbreaking investigation into why so many Islamic radicals are engineers
press.princeton.edu
3 1 40

Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Philip N. Cohen, Valerie Mueller , and 2 more

karenguzzo.bsky.social
Want to know why demographers aren't panicking over low birth rates? @lesja.bsky.social, @shelleydclark.bsky.social, & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com explaining the faulty logic that underlies the low birth rate-induced population panic than fuels the pronatalism movement. 1/n
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
8 59 140

Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Ken Caldeira, David S. Cohen , and 1 more

nytpitchbot.bsky.social
A Nazi owns Twitter, right wing billionaires own the Wall Street Journal and the LA Times, and CBS is run by a right wing nepo baby who just fired one of the network’s biggest stars for criticizing Donald Trump. Here’s why America has a left-wing media bias problem.
98 4.8K 16K

by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
Implications: when studying how events (disasters, policy changes, etc.) affect birth outcomes, we must account for conception rate changes. What looks like changing health might result simply from parts of the population changing conceptive behavior. 4/4

by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
More generally, underlying baseline risk matters for magnitudes. We find that temporal variation in conceptions explains around 8% of preterm birth fluctuations for White mothers, and 12-15% for Black mothers. 3/4
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by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
Using US birth data (2010-2019), we show that a conception "shock" creates a wave pattern: fewer conceptions → fewer preterm births beginning from 5 months later → but more from 9 months before rates normalize. 2/4
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by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
🔴New working paper with @marcocozzani.bsky.social and @juhoharkonen.bsky.social. We describe the temporal link between conception timing and preterm birth rates. When conception rates fluctuate, preterm birth proportions shift predictably but with different magnitudes depending on baseline risk. 1/4
labdisia.disia.unifi.it
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by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
Congrats Zach!
1

by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
but no difference across post-dissolution living arrangements, including for joint living and parents' subsequent partner status. With M.N. Nielsen and M. Gähler. [2/2]

by Peter Fallesen

pfallesen.bsky.social
Our article on parental union dissolution and children’s emotional and behavioral problems appears in the most recent issue of @sfjournal.bsky.social. We find a longterm increase in SDQ score following parental union dissolution [1/2]

academic.oup.com/sf/article/1...
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen

jayvanbavel.bsky.social
Much of that distortion can be traced back to a few hyperactive users
-Just 10% of users produce 97% of political tweets
-A mere 0.1% of users share 80% of fake news
This leads us to believe that society is more polarized, angry, & deluded than it really is. www.theguardian.com/books/2025/j...
Are a few people ruining the internet for the rest of us?
Why does the online world seem so toxic compared with normal life? Our research shows that a small number of divisive accounts could be responsible – and offers a way out
www.theguardian.com
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Markus Jäntti, Marco Albertini , and 1 more

populationeu.bsky.social
Despite living in wealthy societies, too many children still grow up in poverty.

What can be done—nationally and locally—to change this?

Read our latest Policy Brief for the #Mapineq project by @janierola.net & @mjantti.bsky.social and find it out!

🔗 tinyurl.com/54bwznh9
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen, Richard Shaw

Reckless disregard for the truth coming from cops, doctors, and scientists: A rant.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/06/24/r...
Reckless disregard for the truth coming from cops, doctors, and scientists: A rant. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
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Reposted by: Peter Fallesen

arnoutvanderijt.bsky.social
As some of you guessed, the two models are statistically indistinguishable. The answer is Model 1, but there was no way to tell from the data. I was very surprised when I first saw this. Here we show that this confounding of heterogeneity and reinforcement is general: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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References

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