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Christopher Blair

@chriswblair.bsky.social

1.8K followers 1.3K following 55 posts

Assistant Prof at Princeton Politics | Ph.D. at UPenn | Alum at UVA | Borders, Militancy, Forced Displacement, Climate Change, Foreign Policy http://www.chriswblair.com

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

🚨🚨🚨🚨 New WP (with @benckrick.bsky.social @austinlw.bsky.social) available at the ESOC working paper series:

esoc.princeton.edu/wp39

Title: Refugee Repatriation and Conflict: Evidence from the Maximum Pressure Sanctions

Abstract: How does refugee return shape conflict in migrants’ destination communities? We argue that conditions inducing repatriation bear critically on the consequences of return. When refugees return because of worsening conditions in host countries, they are often marginalized and destitute. In this setting, mass return risks amplifying conflict in returnee-receiving communities. We test this theory leveraging the Trump administration’s sudden re-imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018. These “Maximum Pressure” sanctions decimated the Iranian economy and spurred mass return of Afghan refugees from Iran. Exploiting historical returnee settlement patterns and the plausibly exogenous timing of the sanctions, we estimate the causal effect of large-scale refugee repatriation on violence. We find that the returnee influx increased insurgent violence in returnees’ destination communities. We find suggestive evidence for an opportunity cost mechanism. Sanctions-induced currency depreciation reduced household incomes in returnee-receiving areas, lowering reservation wages and driving up insurgent recruitment. We also find evidence that Iran retaliated against the sanctions by escalating support for Afghan insurgent factions. While insurgent violence increased in repatriation communities, there was no effect on communal conflict.

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Reposted by Cas Mudde, Jan W. Mueller, Norbert Schwarz , and 28 more Cas Mudde, Jan W. Mueller, Norbert Schwarz, Brendan Nyhan, Tom Clark, Scott L. Greer, Robert W. Wallace, Rosemary A. Joyce, Marina Jirotka, David Rothschild, Eric Goldman, Christian E. Weller, Daniel W. Drezner, Melanie C. Green, David R. Miller, Lesley Bartlett, Paolo Beria, Stacy D. VanDeveer, Michael D. McDonald, Jason Lyall, Aurélien Mondon, Ann Bartow, Colm O’Cinneíde, Blair Fix, Tim Fish, Claire Sécail, Daxton R. Stewart, Olivier Mannoni, Nancy M. Wingfield, Christopher Blair, James M. Thomas

Kurt @flglchicago.bsky.social · 2d

Here’s video of the incident

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Reposted by Michael Kevane, Rebecca Tushnet, Christopher Blair , and 1 more Michael Kevane, Rebecca Tushnet, Christopher Blair, David Darmofal

Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · 19d

Tom Homan was investigated for accepting $50,000 from undercover FBI agents. Trump's DOJ shut it down.

The FBI and Justice officials closed the investigation, which a Justice Department appointee had called a “deep state” probe in early 2025.
www.msnbc.com/msnbc/news/t...

Tom Homan was investigated for accepting $50,000 from undercover FBI agents. Trump's DOJ shut it down.

The FBI and Justice officials closed the investigation, which a Justice Department appointee had called a “deep state” probe in early 2025.

www.msnbc.com

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 22d

I was quite pessimistic about the trajectory of American democracy in my last response to a Brightline Watch survey.

Clearly I was not sufficiently pessimistic.

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Sep 4

This looks so interesting! Congrats

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Reposted by Christopher Blair

Mara Revkin @mararevkin.bsky.social · Jul 10

Excited to share a new open-access article with @benckrick.bsky.social @jonpetkun.bsky.social in @iojournal.bsky.social, "Civilian Harm & Military Legitimacy" www.cambridge.org/core/journal.... This project started in 2018 Mosul, Iraq’s 2nd largest city, in the aftermath of a 9-month battle … 1/7

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Atul Gawande @agawande.bsky.social · Jul 1

STAGGERING: This new study of 133 countries is the first to estimate the impact of all USAID’s work. In 2 decades, it has saved *92M* lives. Current cuts, if not reversed, are forecast to cost up to *14M* lives thru 2030. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Jun 13

I just emailed you! Happy to help debug code offline if it'd be helpful.

Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Jun 13

I'd try using reghdfe rather than xtreg

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Reposted by Anna G. Busse, Jörg Peters, Sam Jones , and 5 more Anna G. Busse, Jörg Peters, Sam Jones, Anna Grzymała-Busse, Timo M. Kauppinen, Alexandra Cirone, Christopher Blair, Jake Anders

Dan de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · May 14

🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨

What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?

We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.

Two main contributions...

🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc

good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description

Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description

tinyurl.com

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · May 6

Ah, thought I shared the gift link. Try this: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump Administration Offers Migrants $1,000 to Voluntarily Leave

The Trump administration is offering undocumented migrants $1,000 and paid travel if they agree to leave the US voluntarily, the latest effort to ramp up mass deportations and slash enforcement costs.

www.bloomberg.com

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · May 5

Agreed! I think this move is a political gambit to inflate deportation numbers.

My quote in the article touches on this - paying people to return home is not likely to keep them from attempting to migrate again

And even if the admin doesn’t care about conflict in origin countries, we should!

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · May 5

A new Trump administration policy offers cash to migrants undertaking "self-deportation." It was a pleasure to speak with @bloomberg.com on some of the potential pitfalls of this approach, building on my research on a cash-for-repatriation scheme in Pakistan

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Refugee Return and Conflict: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

We estimate the causal effect of a large-scale cash assistance program for refugee returnees on conflict in Afghanistan. The program led to a significant increa

papers.ssrn.com

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Reposted by Christopher Blair

Jeffrey Swindle @jeffreyswindle.bsky.social · Apr 30

This dataset is truly awesome. Check out this example map (especially Latin America) from their report introducing the dataset. Thanks to the authors & contributors! @chriswblair.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social

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Reposted by Andreas De Block, Christopher Blair

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Apr 14

COLLINS: Can President Bukele weigh in on this? Do you plan to return Garcia?

BUKELE: How can I smuggle a terrorist into the United States? Of course I'm not going to do it. The question is preposterous

TRUMP: These are sick people

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Apr 6

on.ft.com/42gQ4HA How Gatsby foretold Trump’s America

How Gatsby foretold Trump’s America

A century after it was published, F Scott Fitzgerald’s masterpiece is more relevant than ever. Sarah Churchwell on the trouble with ‘careless people’

on.ft.com

Reposted by Christopher Blair

Sam Wang @samwang.bsky.social · Apr 1

As my colleagues and I wrote in the Daily Princetonian last week, we all have to stand up for our science, and not accept this attack on universities. www.dailyprincetonian.com/article/2025...

To stop intimidation, Eisgruber needs your help

When targeting one institution is a bald attempt to divide and conquer, as is the case with Columbia, it is essential for a coalition or group of institutions and individuals to stand up together.&nbs...

www.dailyprincetonian.com

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Reposted by Gerhard Krinner, Tony Gallagher, Marlene Wind , and 4 more Gerhard Krinner, Tony Gallagher, Marlene Wind, Federico Finchelstein, James Rogers, Christopher Blair, Aurélien Eyquem

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Feb 28

Trump to Zelenskyy: "Don't tell us what we're gonna feel. You're in no position to dictate that. You're in no position to dictate what we're gonna feel. We're gonna feel very good and very strong. You're right now not in a very good position. You're gambling with World War 3."

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Reposted by Christopher Blair

Popehat Agitates And Irritates @kenwhite.bsky.social · Feb 28

Watching Putin’s little stooges try to bully Zelenskyy in our goddamned White House is pretty repulsive.

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

In the US, amidst a demoralizing political news cycle, the Trump admin has reinitiated the Maximum Pressure strategy on Iran, imposing renewed sanctions.

Our findings suggest growing pressure on Iran could result in another wave of mass Afghan repatriation, further destabilizing Afghanistan.

Trump team aims to bankrupt Iran with new "maximum pressure" plan

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

For policy, a number of recent developments are relevant.

Several European countries are contemplating forcibly repatriating Syrian refugees. Achieving Syrian returns by restricting hosting conditions for Syrian refugees may exacerbate instability in Syrian areas that receive returnees from Europe.

Danish plan to repatriate Syrian refugees sparks controversy

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

Why does this all matter?

For theory, we think the framework we develop is quite useful. Consequences of repatriation are intimately linked with the contexts of repatriation.

Returns resulting from worsening conditions in a host country are an important, overlooked phenomenon.

Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

One possible reason is that there was nothing for returnees and their non-migrant neighbors to fight over, like parochial access of one group but not the other to aid, land, resources.

Another possibility is that strong local institutions in returnee-receiving areas mitigated conflict.

Map of reliance on local institutions for dispute resolution.

Dispute resolutions offset risks of communal conflict stemming from return.

Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

What about communal violence?

Much prior evidence suggests mass repatriation increases communal disputes and local feuds.

To our surprise, we find no evidence that return was associated with ⬆️ communal conflict in this setting. If anything, returnees reported better relations.

Return had a small negative effect on communal tension as reported in a survey.

No effect of return on communal conflict as reported in administrative data.

Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

We develop a new measure of Iranian covert support networks in Afghanistan, using FOIA-ed information on Iranian facilitation routes and arms trafficking.

Violence during the Max Pressure period ⬆️ disproportionately in returnee-receiving communities linked to Iran-backed Taliban cells

Map of Iranian covert networks in Afghanistan.

Insurgent violence increased in Iran-linked areas during the Maximum Pressure period.

Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

Another possible explanation for the increase in insurgent violence also stands out.

Iran may have retaliated against U.S. sanctions by ratcheting up support for militant factions in Afghanistan, hindering US efforts to negotiate a peace and withdraw.

Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

We cannot directly observe Taliban recruitment designed to capitalize on these dynamics.

But: tactical shifts are suggestive. Insurgents flush with recruits can pull off riskier and deadlier ops using labor-intensive tactics (e.g., complex attacks) that require large teams of perps to conduct.

Positive effect of return on insurgent allocation in labor-intensive tactics.

Positive effect of return on insurgent allocation against hard, military targets.

Positive effect of return on lethality of labor-intensive tactics.

Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

We find evidence consistent with this interpretation.

In returnee-receiving communities, there was ⬆️ unemployment, ⬇️ economic perceptions, and ⬇️ consumption (as measured by nighttime luminosity)

Negative effect of return on economic perceptions.

Negative effect of return on nighttime luminosity.

Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

US Defense Dept. officials foresaw this possibility, and noted that large-scale returns of destitute Afghan refugees to Afghanistan at a time when the Taliban was interested in recruiting part-time fighters for the summer offensive would make these individuals targets of recruitment.

Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · Feb 26

Why did violence ⬆️ in repatriation-receiving communities?

One explanation relates to a classical political economy account -- opportunity costs

The sanctions-induced economic collapse in Iran meant returnees and their non-migrant neighbors were impoverished and vulnerable to insurgent recruitment