Frank Kuhn
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frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn
@frankkuhn.bsky.social

Doctoral Researcher @PRIF.org // former Nuclear Scholar @poni.csis.org and Project Coordinator @cntrarmscontrol.org // Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control // Cold War History // Military Technology, Operations and Strategy // Opinions my own // .. more

Business 42%
Neuroscience 12%

”A corollary to the inescapable physicality of war is that if invasions of Cuba or Greenland are put into action, we will see buildups at various bases across the US, as we did in the Caribbean, or as we did in the fall of 2021, as Vladimir Putin prepared to attack Ukraine.“

Reposted by Frank Kühn

I don't think there was. And even if, don‘t forget there are AEGIS destroyers in Spain and the two AEGIS Ashore sites in Eastern Europe, as I wrote in 2023. The “capability gap” did not exist back then and does not exist today, even though you can argue that Arrow 3 is now a sensible procurement.
Arrow 3: Eine fragliche Beschaffung - PRIF BLOG
Die Bundesregierung beschafft für rund vier Milliarden Euro das Raketenabwehrsystem Arrow 3. International sorgt das für Stirnrunzeln.
blog.prif.org

Guilty as charged.
The form you all have to fill out after every Oreshnik firing

Colin Powell: ”I felt that we were wasting a lot of money on nuclear weapons. We really didn’t need any more. The Army did not need to have nuclear weapons. We could make the rubble bounce everywhere now.”

Reposted by Frank Kühn

The form you all have to fill out after every Oreshnik firing

Newly declassified transcripts of Putin-Bush conversations obtained by @nsarchive.bsky.social – fascinating:

President Bush: The Cold War was a time of suspicion, competition and diminishing each other.

President Putin: You did the diminishing part very well.

📂 nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/337...

Great thread! There is also a short explainer on electronic warfare by the Smithsonian channel which is pretty good.
This Aircraft Is a Marvel of Electronic Warfare
YouTube video by Smithsonian Channel
www.youtube.com

Reposted by Frank Kühn

Die USA bräuchten Grönland für ihre nationale Sicherheit, so US-Präsident Trump. Diese Sicherheitsgründe sind nur vorgeschoben, meint Michael Paul @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social. »Grönland ist für Trump der größtmögliche territoriale Deal, den er erzielen kann.« www.tagesschau.de/ausland/euro...
US-Ansprüche auf Grönland: "Die Sicherheitsgründe sind vorgeschoben"
US-Präsident Trump begründet seinen Anspruch auf Grönland mit einem Vordringen Russlands und Chinas. Der Arktis-Experte Michael Paul hält das für einen Vorwand. Im Interview erklärt er, welche Problem...
www.tagesschau.de

“U.S. military aircraft movements through the United Kingdom this week are consistent with preparations for a maritime interdiction operation targeting a Venezuelan-linked oil tanker, according to open-source analysis [...].”
U.S. Special Forces to seize tanker near Europe
According to reports from CBS, U.S. forces are planning to seize the tanker Marinera, formerly known as Bella 1, rather than sink it.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk

Keith Payne as written a good article on this: “[R]ational decision-making can underlie behavior that is judged to be ‘unreasonable,’ shocking, and even criminal by an observer because that behavior is so far removed from any shared norms and standards.”
The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction
In most Cold War-style analyses of deterrence, leaders are assumed to be rational and willing to engage in cost-benefit calculations when making policy decisions. Yet, the assumption of rationali...
www.tandfonline.com

Important point by @ryanevans.bsky.social on supposedly 'irrational actors’: “[T]he claim of irrationality functioned as an alibi for an expert class unwilling to update its own view of how the world now works, with the post-Cold War era dead and decomposing.“
Trump’s Venezuelan Regime Change: Why Do People Keep Getting Him Wrong on Foreign Policy?
A number of thoughtful observers argued President Donald Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. I was never convinced. On our podcast and in
warontherocks.com

Reposted by Frank Kühn

I'd still like to know technologically (or systemically?) how the Russian antiaircraft systems in Venezuela failed to function. cc @maurogilli.bsky.social @attackerman.bsky.social

Asking for a few friendly continents.

via @stollmeyer.bsky.social
During Fiona Hill's testimony to Congress on Oct 14, 2019, she described how Trump and Putin discussed exchanging Ukraine for Venezuela. The quid pro quo was if Trump refuses to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, Putin would not help Venezuela (a Russian ally) resist a US takeover.
1/Leaders are abducted/allies are threatened but pundits and governments are scratching their heads on what the US is doing. Danish PM on Greenland "It makes absolutely no sense". Why? Because actors using old IR models when we need a new lens. Enter neo-royalism.
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
Denmark's PM urges Trump to 'stop the threats' of annexing Greenland
The prime minister of Denmark called on Trump to “stop the threats” of the U.S. annexing Greenland after renewed comments garnered international attention.
abcnews.go.com

But the Monroe doctrine was renounced only in 2013, and even then, some argued that this was more of a symbol than substance...
The US Renounces the Monroe Doctrine?
On Monday, John Kerry declared that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Don’t believe him.
thediplomat.com
Whenever Trump does something crazy, people try to rationalize it. Now, they're saying it was Venezuela's "heavy, sour crude" that made him kidnap Maduro. I think the truth is much scarier and less strategic: He simply enjoys the feeling of power and humiliating his opponents.
The New START treaty doesn't expire until February 5. Stationing Oreshnik in Belarus prior to it's expiration is one last violation of the treaty. 🧵
Meine diesjährige Reise ins Baltikum geht dem Ende entgegen. Und es ist mir ein großes Bedürfnis zu sagen, was alle längst wissen sollten.

Russland bereitet sich auf einen Angriff gegen die NATO vor. Der Kreml schlägt alle diplomatischen Angebote aus. Dieses Russland ist unser Feind.

“President Donald Trump unveiled plans for a 'Trump-class’ battleship on Monday that will carry nuclear-armed cruise missiles — the first time a surface ship will be armed with such weapons since the Cold War.
Trump’s new ‘Trump-Class’ battleship will carry nuclear weapons
The president wants to outfit new surface ships with weapons that haven't been deployed since the Cold War.
www.politico.com

Thanks!

The new volume of “On the Horizon: A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation” edited by
@doreenhorschig.bsky.social for @poni.csis.org is finally out! 📘

I take a look at how DoD could use existing elements of the joint targeting process to reduce the risk of unintentional nuclear escalation.

Some thoughts on the new U.S. National Security Strategy, including from yours truly. 👇
The new Trump National Security Strategy breaks away from traditional American strategic goals and interests. In an extended #PRIFblog post, several PRIF researchers provide an overview of the strategy and contextualize it, shedding light on notable aspects in short commentaries.
The New US National Security Strategy: A Blog Analysis and Commentaries - PRIF BLOG
On December 4th the White House published its 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS). The document is mandated by law for every incoming administration and serves as a compass for US foreign and securi...
blog.prif.org

What‘s the source of these slides if I may ask?

Reposted by Frank Kühn

PRIF @prif.org · 23d
The new Trump National Security Strategy breaks away from traditional American strategic goals and interests. In an extended #PRIFblog post, several PRIF researchers provide an overview of the strategy and contextualize it, shedding light on notable aspects in short commentaries.
The New US National Security Strategy: A Blog Analysis and Commentaries - PRIF BLOG
On December 4th the White House published its 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS). The document is mandated by law for every incoming administration and serves as a compass for US foreign and securi...
blog.prif.org

Reposted by Frank Kühn

On the Horizon — written by @csis.org PONI’s 2025 Nuclear Scholars and edited by @doreenhorschig.bsky.social — offers fresh research on nuclear strategy, arms control & emerging tech from tomorrow’s experts.

Read it here: www.csis.org/analysis/hor...
On the Horizon, Vol. 8
The 2025 PONI Nuclear Scholars explore the future of nuclear strategy, offering perspectives from emerging experts on disruptive technology, intensifying geopolitical rivalries, and strategic stabilit...
www.csis.org

Musst du dir einen guten Paketshop suchen. Mein Kiosk um die Ecke hat Mo–Sa von 08:00–22:00 Uhr geöffnet, Sonntag von 11:00—20:00 Uhr. Leite meine Pakete direkt nach dort um. Gibt's auf dem Land nur vermutlich nicht. 😜

Ich sage nur „Abnutzungskrieg“. 😅

Reposted by Frank Kühn

"Für Europa kann es nur einen Weg nach vorne geben. Autonomie und eine Politik, die Amerika als das behandelt, was es niemals sein wollte: Eine Großmacht wie jede andere."

Letzte Meldung vor Weihnachten von @tobiaspfella.bsky.social und mir.
www.ipg-journal.de/rubriken/aus...
Wer glaubt an den Weihnachtsmann?
Die USA wandeln sich vom liberalen Hegemon zur revisionistischen Großmacht. Wer das ignoriert, lebt in einer Traumwelt.
www.ipg-journal.de

Reposted by Frank Kühn

Fascinating 1988 documentary showing Warsaw Pact officers observing NATO exercises among many other nuggets. youtu.be/PucaA4kxmBs?...
Frontline/TIME: The Defense of Europe (1988)
YouTube video by ScanRange
youtu.be