Andrew Watt
andrewwatteu.bsky.social
Andrew Watt
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social

General Director, European Trade Union Institute
@etui.bsky.social

Formerly www.imk-boeckler.de

EU economic governance, comparative political economy, European integration, socio-ecological transition, wage bargaining
Deutschland-Versteher
Vietnam .. more

Economics 58%
Political science 32%

If you had the slightest doubt as to how to interpret Rubio's speech at the MSC, you just need to see who he visits afterwards.
bsky.app/profile/eura...

That Rubio received a standing ovation & gushing praise shows how ill served Europe is by its transatlantic-oriented foreign policy elite network

Reposted by Andrew Watt

After Munich speech, Rubio visits Trump allies in Slovakia and Hungary
After Munich speech, Rubio visits Trump allies in Slovakia and Hungary
The visits come a day after Rubio called on Europeans to defend "Western civilisation"
dlvr.it

Interlude

Somebody picked this book up today at the bookshop ...
but then got distracted by the games and didn't make it to the checkout.
😜
Rubio just made a speech to the European defense community in Munich that did not mention Ukraine. Or democracy. Or US business deals with Russia. Or the administration's plans to support the European far right. But there were lots of nice words about our common civilization.

bsky.app/profile/luca...
Lucas Guttenberg is rightly sceptical about what I call 👆 a "patchwork rug" : replacing a fragmented single market "by inaction" with one fragmented "by design",
The idea to unblock the Single Market deepening agenda with a multi-speed approach a.k.a. Enhanced Cooperation seems extremely weird to me both in principle and politically especially if the goal is "One Market".

Here is why:
After years of resistance, leaders finally say EU should go at different speeds
Summit in Belgian castle sees governments acknowledge Europe urgently needs to change the way it functions if it’s not going to be left behind.
www.politico.eu

Reposted by Andrew Watt

The idea to unblock the Single Market deepening agenda with a multi-speed approach a.k.a. Enhanced Cooperation seems extremely weird to me both in principle and politically especially if the goal is "One Market".

Here is why:
After years of resistance, leaders finally say EU should go at different speeds
Summit in Belgian castle sees governments acknowledge Europe urgently needs to change the way it functions if it’s not going to be left behind.
www.politico.eu

Indeed.

Not immediately, ofc, but EU debt could gradually rise to a much higher share of GDP, backed by ECB, no problem.

True.
Although here the point was more about creating EU-level debt (eurobonds), which could actually mean being more stringent about national-level debt.

Reposted by Jacky Fayolle

My take on the meeting of EU leaders: a missed opportunity to launch an investment-led recovery

open.substack.com/pub/andrewwa...

If you want analysis of European economic and employment issues in your inbox - roughly weekly, I hope! - you can sign up for a free substack subscription.
Belgian castles in the air
A missed opportunity for competitiveness through investment
open.substack.com

Reposted by Jacky Fayolle

Of all the decisions that Trump's ignorance, venality and lust for power have led him to take, this could well be the most damaging. The full-on revert to fossil fuels this presages brings the threat of devastating climate change closer still.
Breaking News: The Trump administration repealed the bedrock scientific finding that greenhouse gases threaten human life and well being, meaning that the EPA can no longer regulate them. nyti.ms/4rSszQu
Breaking News: The Trump administration repealed the bedrock scientific finding that greenhouse gases threaten human life and well being, meaning that the EPA can no longer regulate them. nyti.ms/4rSszQu

Beyond the specific focus on Trump, it is pretty astounding how widespread and deeply-held is the belief that the Right is the only reliable steward of the economy while Left governments are a recipe for economic disaster.

In US at least, the centre left seems bad at politics rather than economics.
We now have data from Trump's first full year in office. Let's review the performance of Trump and the two parties since 1989 and a new age of globalization began.

However you cut the data Trump continues to have worst jobs record of last six Presidents. 1/
We now have data from Trump's first full year in office. Let's review the performance of Trump and the two parties since 1989 and a new age of globalization began.

However you cut the data Trump continues to have worst jobs record of last six Presidents. 1/

An idea whose time is at least 15 years overdue...
#Eurobonds
Emmanuel Macron calls for the issuance of "future-oriented Eurobonds" to finance strategic projects and challenge the hegemony of the US dollar.

"The global market, in fact, is increasingly afraid of the American dollar. It's looking for alternatives. Let's offer it European debt."
Emmanuel Macron : « C’est le moment pour l’UE de lancer une capacité commune d’endettement, à travers des eurobonds »
A deux jours d’une rencontre des chefs d’Etat et de gouvernement de l’UE à Bruxelles, le président de la République appelle les Vingt-Sept, dans un entretien au « Monde » et à plusieurs journaux europ...
www.lemonde.fr
Emmanuel Macron calls for the issuance of "future-oriented Eurobonds" to finance strategic projects and challenge the hegemony of the US dollar.

"The global market, in fact, is increasingly afraid of the American dollar. It's looking for alternatives. Let's offer it European debt."
Emmanuel Macron : « C’est le moment pour l’UE de lancer une capacité commune d’endettement, à travers des eurobonds »
A deux jours d’une rencontre des chefs d’Etat et de gouvernement de l’UE à Bruxelles, le président de la République appelle les Vingt-Sept, dans un entretien au « Monde » et à plusieurs journaux europ...
www.lemonde.fr

I do get your point. But history suggests that, once due process is abandoned, even if the original impulse is emancipatory, n the end the supposed cure proves to be worse than the disease.

One doesn't have to be a raving neoliberal to realise that there would, in fact, be negative knock-on effects. It's not just an abstract legal principle.
But I understand the sentiment too. The rules of the game need to be changed to limit their power and redistribute resources.

Buy European clauses in public procurement and state subsidy regines certainly raise issues. But I agree with Sandor. Their blanket rejection from first principles is naive and misguided in a world characterised by strategic players and discrepancies between short and long run interests.
Some Europeans have still not caught up to a world profoundly shaped by Chinas industrial policy.

A lot of hard pushback on targeted buy-European because it would reduce European competitiveness and product quality.

Reality, created by China, would disagree.

1/

Reposted by Andrew Watt

Some Europeans have still not caught up to a world profoundly shaped by Chinas industrial policy.

A lot of hard pushback on targeted buy-European because it would reduce European competitiveness and product quality.

Reality, created by China, would disagree.

1/

Boots on the ground on the day is only one of a range of techniques.
And boots only need to be deployed where suppressing, say, 10% of the vote for Democrats can tip the result.
A couple of ostentatious ICE people/vehicles (or impersonators) outside a polling station is cheap and likely effective.

What is the basis for your view that "Trump hasn't got the resources to undermine the mid-term elections in themselves"? I sincerely hope you are right, alas I am not so sure. He will certainly try because, unless there is a major turnaround, he is headed for a defeat.

The Epstein revelations are shocking and this shameful past requires proper investigation. But let that not distract us from crimes being committed today and the harm and suffering they will cause in the near future! These are of a whole different order of magnitude and could still be prevented.
As cuts in international aid continue worldwide, a new study projects 22.6 million people will die by 2030, including 5.4 million children under the age of five.
➡️ https://l.euronews.com/saqz

Reposted by Andrew Watt

As cuts in international aid continue worldwide, a new study projects 22.6 million people will die by 2030, including 5.4 million children under the age of five.
➡️ https://l.euronews.com/saqz

A welcome and important development in Portugal 👇.
More broadly, in EU countries and at EU level, the democratic forces need to engage with each other pragmatically to craft policy solutions that deliver for citizens. Gridlock (France) and delay (EP vote on Mercosur) just benefit the far-right.
🚨🚨Striking but welcome development in Portugese politics: To stop the explosive growth of the ultranationalist #Chega party, Portugal’s leading conservatives are doing the previously unthinkable: endorsing the center-left candidate for president. 🧵
www.politico.eu/article/port...
Portugal’s conservatives back left-wing candidate to avoid a far-right president
Center-right leaders are taking pains to publicly reject the ultranationalist contender ahead of the country’s Feb. 8 vote.
www.politico.eu
🚨🚨Striking but welcome development in Portugese politics: To stop the explosive growth of the ultranationalist #Chega party, Portugal’s leading conservatives are doing the previously unthinkable: endorsing the center-left candidate for president. 🧵
www.politico.eu/article/port...
Portugal’s conservatives back left-wing candidate to avoid a far-right president
Center-right leaders are taking pains to publicly reject the ultranationalist contender ahead of the country’s Feb. 8 vote.
www.politico.eu

Indeed, what is welcome is that reality is being faced. For sure there will be distributional EU-political consequences which need to be handled carefully - and one can rightly fear that they will not be.

Equally, for many Europeans it is a welcome development that a naive faith held by European policymakers in special relationships, manifest destinies and the like has met the cold light of day.

He's a pilot with real flying exoerience. Where he may clash with orthodoxy is on taking off and, more troublingly, landing.
Kevin Warsh may be chameleonic but is not an unknown species and has real Federal Reserve experience. Where he may clash with orthodoxy is on interest rates and, more troublingly, independence
What will Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve look like?
Donald Trump’s nominee was an inflation hawk—until he wasn’t
econ.st

Reposted by Andrew Watt

Kevin Warsh may be chameleonic but is not an unknown species and has real Federal Reserve experience. Where he may clash with orthodoxy is on interest rates and, more troublingly, independence
What will Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve look like?
Donald Trump’s nominee was an inflation hawk—until he wasn’t
econ.st