Konstantin Bogatyrev
@bogatyrev.bsky.social
- LSE Fellow in political behaviour at @lsegovernment.bsky.social
- PhD from Bocconi (2025)
- working on electoral accountability for illiberals & authoritarians + quant methods
- 🏳️🌈 he/they
https://sites.google.com/view/konstantin-bogatyrev/
- PhD from Bocconi (2025)
- working on electoral accountability for illiberals & authoritarians + quant methods
- 🏳️🌈 he/they
https://sites.google.com/view/konstantin-bogatyrev/
Pinned
New working paper! In this research note, @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social, and I present the first systematic test that causally identifies the electoral consequences of state-sponsored homophobia:
osf.io/preprints/os...
🧵Thread
osf.io/preprints/os...
🧵Thread
🚨Working paper alert🚨 This was the first project I started in my PhD, blessed with amazing co-authors! Glad to finally share our findings. Long story short: even largely symbolic and declarative state-sponsored homophobia can translate into real political behavior 👇
Join our department as an AP! Happy to share my experience at LSE if you reach out 👇
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
November 25, 2025 at 9:25 AM
Join our department as an AP! Happy to share my experience at LSE if you reach out 👇
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
V happy to see this paper out with @chrisclaassen.bsky.social at @bjpols.bsky.social .
We argue that nostalgia for Britain's past is an important, distinct opinion dimension which has meaningful consequences for party evaluations and vote choice.
We argue that nostalgia for Britain's past is an important, distinct opinion dimension which has meaningful consequences for party evaluations and vote choice.
NEWS -
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
November 24, 2025 at 3:29 PM
V happy to see this paper out with @chrisclaassen.bsky.social at @bjpols.bsky.social .
We argue that nostalgia for Britain's past is an important, distinct opinion dimension which has meaningful consequences for party evaluations and vote choice.
We argue that nostalgia for Britain's past is an important, distinct opinion dimension which has meaningful consequences for party evaluations and vote choice.
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
🚨 New article alert!
Congratulations to our LSE Fellow, Dr @bogatyrev.bsky.social and his co-authors for the publication of their latest article, 'The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Anti-LGBTQ Measures' in @thejop.bsky.social.
Read the article 👇🏽
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Congratulations to our LSE Fellow, Dr @bogatyrev.bsky.social and his co-authors for the publication of their latest article, 'The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Anti-LGBTQ Measures' in @thejop.bsky.social.
Read the article 👇🏽
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Anti-LGBTQ Measures | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
www.journals.uchicago.edu
November 24, 2025 at 2:20 PM
🚨 New article alert!
Congratulations to our LSE Fellow, Dr @bogatyrev.bsky.social and his co-authors for the publication of their latest article, 'The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Anti-LGBTQ Measures' in @thejop.bsky.social.
Read the article 👇🏽
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Congratulations to our LSE Fellow, Dr @bogatyrev.bsky.social and his co-authors for the publication of their latest article, 'The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Anti-LGBTQ Measures' in @thejop.bsky.social.
Read the article 👇🏽
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
New paper: Triply Robust Panel Estimators (TROP) by @susanathey.bsky.social @guidoimbens.bsky.social Zhaonan Qu @vivianodavide.bsky.social.
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
November 23, 2025 at 10:39 PM
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
Happy that our paper with @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, and @lstoetze.bsky.social found a home at @thejop.bsky.social. You can read it here 👇
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us
November 22, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Happy that our paper with @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, and @lstoetze.bsky.social found a home at @thejop.bsky.social. You can read it here 👇
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us
Our paper just got accepted in the @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 and is now on the journal website: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... For me personally, it's a milestone: my first paper accepted after a peer review!
November 22, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Our paper just got accepted in the @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 and is now on the journal website: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... For me personally, it's a milestone: my first paper accepted after a peer review!
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
We're now up to Reviewer #15
Reviewer #13 agreed? Either this is going to be one really complicated R&R or the journal is having a hard time finding reviewers.
November 20, 2025 at 6:14 PM
We're now up to Reviewer #15
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
As AI becomes ever more sophisticated, its effects on those (like me) who use online surveys and experiments may be dire. (As one coauthor called it -- the botpocalypse!) The second POAL methods brief by the excellent @laurenleek.eu digs deeper into the problem. Very important reading!
"Safeguarding data quality is no longer a single checkpoint but an end-to-end pipeline - one that reallocates substantial resources from sampling to continuous fraud monitoring"
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
www.poal.co.uk
November 18, 2025 at 12:17 PM
As AI becomes ever more sophisticated, its effects on those (like me) who use online surveys and experiments may be dire. (As one coauthor called it -- the botpocalypse!) The second POAL methods brief by the excellent @laurenleek.eu digs deeper into the problem. Very important reading!
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
The Maduro regime is not in a position to design, or even participate in, an institutional framework that could guide Venezuela back to democracy. With no golden parachute in sight, he's digging in. My piece @foreignpolicy.com on off-ramps from dictatorship
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/19/m...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/19/m...
Maduro Needs a Golden Parachute
The only way to avoid war in Venezuela may be if its leader doesn’t fear leaving office.
foreignpolicy.com
November 19, 2025 at 10:12 PM
The Maduro regime is not in a position to design, or even participate in, an institutional framework that could guide Venezuela back to democracy. With no golden parachute in sight, he's digging in. My piece @foreignpolicy.com on off-ramps from dictatorship
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/19/m...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/19/m...
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
Was not aware that prolific did ID validation in their recruitment which at least allow us to say that the/a real respondent did exist at some point.
I disagree. AFAIK, this was not run on Prolific, and we already have the majority of Sean's recommendations in place.
Ongoing Panelist Validation ✅
Throttling Mechanisms ✅
Panelist Professionalism ✅
Panelist Quality Checks ✅
Location Checks ✅
Identity Validation ✅
Secure Software 🟠 (partial)
Ongoing Panelist Validation ✅
Throttling Mechanisms ✅
Panelist Professionalism ✅
Panelist Quality Checks ✅
Location Checks ✅
Identity Validation ✅
Secure Software 🟠 (partial)
November 18, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Was not aware that prolific did ID validation in their recruitment which at least allow us to say that the/a real respondent did exist at some point.
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
"academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who created it... The dominant four collectively generated... $12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024."
November 18, 2025 at 6:48 AM
"academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who created it... The dominant four collectively generated... $12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024."
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
I doubt that I will ever be able to include a better footnote.
November 17, 2025 at 5:07 PM
I doubt that I will ever be able to include a better footnote.
Can't stop recommending this paper to my master's students!
Now out @apsrjournal.bsky.social with page numbers! 🫒
We advance a new argument on how economic crises fuel support for far-right parties in left-behind places by tapping into long-standing community narratives
shorturl.at/bA55v
@catherinedevries.bsky.social
We advance a new argument on how economic crises fuel support for far-right parties in left-behind places by tapping into long-standing community narratives
shorturl.at/bA55v
@catherinedevries.bsky.social
November 17, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Can't stop recommending this paper to my master's students!
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
🌱 How do environmental protests affect public option? And what if they are disruptive? We have a 💫 new study 💫 out in the BJPS about public support for environmental protests. (cc @catherinedevries.bsky.social , @simonvanteutem.bsky.social ) Summary below 👇
NEW -
Public Support for Pro-environment and Environment-Critical Movements - https://cup.org/3XzCAEJ
- @dirckdekleer.bsky.social, @catherinedevries.bsky.social & @simonvanteutem.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Public Support for Pro-environment and Environment-Critical Movements - https://cup.org/3XzCAEJ
- @dirckdekleer.bsky.social, @catherinedevries.bsky.social & @simonvanteutem.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
November 17, 2025 at 9:22 AM
🌱 How do environmental protests affect public option? And what if they are disruptive? We have a 💫 new study 💫 out in the BJPS about public support for environmental protests. (cc @catherinedevries.bsky.social , @simonvanteutem.bsky.social ) Summary below 👇
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
3/The mistreatment of women in economics has long been an open secret. I have felt the obligation to discuss sexism in the profession with every female graduate student I have had starting as an Assistant Professor to this day.
November 15, 2025 at 4:32 PM
3/The mistreatment of women in economics has long been an open secret. I have felt the obligation to discuss sexism in the profession with every female graduate student I have had starting as an Assistant Professor to this day.
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
I personally think this is a "harder problem" than we care to admit.
So, are you a (social) scientist struggling with this situation? A break between what you _want_ to study (a causal process) and what you feel you _can_ credibly study (a correlation)?
Here are some readings that might help. 👇
So, are you a (social) scientist struggling with this situation? A break between what you _want_ to study (a causal process) and what you feel you _can_ credibly study (a correlation)?
Here are some readings that might help. 👇
Doing non-causal inference (and being explicit about it), yet using a causal word as second word in the title.
If you pay Nature € 10.690, they will publish this in Nature Ageing.
I can tell you what I think of that for free.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
If you pay Nature € 10.690, they will publish this in Nature Ageing.
I can tell you what I think of that for free.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
November 11, 2025 at 11:24 AM
I personally think this is a "harder problem" than we care to admit.
So, are you a (social) scientist struggling with this situation? A break between what you _want_ to study (a causal process) and what you feel you _can_ credibly study (a correlation)?
Here are some readings that might help. 👇
So, are you a (social) scientist struggling with this situation? A break between what you _want_ to study (a causal process) and what you feel you _can_ credibly study (a correlation)?
Here are some readings that might help. 👇
Not hard to make profit margins over 30% if you don't pay people who produce the content you sell, and their employers pay you for access
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
November 13, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Not hard to make profit margins over 30% if you don't pay people who produce the content you sell, and their employers pay you for access
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
This plot is from a different, evil world.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
November 13, 2025 at 2:37 PM
This plot is from a different, evil world.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
🚨New working paper: Compositional Effects, Internal Migration and Electoral Outcomes
osf.io/preprints/so...
#polisciresearch
osf.io/preprints/so...
#polisciresearch
November 13, 2025 at 1:13 PM
🚨New working paper: Compositional Effects, Internal Migration and Electoral Outcomes
osf.io/preprints/so...
#polisciresearch
osf.io/preprints/so...
#polisciresearch
If you sign up for Refine to proofread your papers, please use my referral link to create an account: www.refine.ink?ref=ay5ib2dh... That way we both can receive one free technical review!
November 11, 2025 at 1:56 PM
If you sign up for Refine to proofread your papers, please use my referral link to create an account: www.refine.ink?ref=ay5ib2dh... That way we both can receive one free technical review!
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
2500 paper submissions - what a huge success for @epssnet.bsky.social already. Big congratulations to @sarahobolt.bsky.social @simonhix.bsky.social @kenbenoit.bsky.social @macartan.bsky.social & everyone else involved in getting EPSS off the ground.
November 10, 2025 at 9:18 PM
2500 paper submissions - what a huge success for @epssnet.bsky.social already. Big congratulations to @sarahobolt.bsky.social @simonhix.bsky.social @kenbenoit.bsky.social @macartan.bsky.social & everyone else involved in getting EPSS off the ground.
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
🚨 New Version 🚨
The new and extended version of our paper on dealing with spatial unit roots in regressions, now
*forthcoming at the Stata Journal* under a new title!
w/ @essobecker.bsky.social @jvoth.bsky.social
Relevant to anyone who uses spatial data !
Link and more information in🧵(1/n)
The new and extended version of our paper on dealing with spatial unit roots in regressions, now
*forthcoming at the Stata Journal* under a new title!
w/ @essobecker.bsky.social @jvoth.bsky.social
Relevant to anyone who uses spatial data !
Link and more information in🧵(1/n)
November 5, 2025 at 8:35 PM
🚨 New Version 🚨
The new and extended version of our paper on dealing with spatial unit roots in regressions, now
*forthcoming at the Stata Journal* under a new title!
w/ @essobecker.bsky.social @jvoth.bsky.social
Relevant to anyone who uses spatial data !
Link and more information in🧵(1/n)
The new and extended version of our paper on dealing with spatial unit roots in regressions, now
*forthcoming at the Stata Journal* under a new title!
w/ @essobecker.bsky.social @jvoth.bsky.social
Relevant to anyone who uses spatial data !
Link and more information in🧵(1/n)
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
Book workshops are *fantastic.* Whether or not resources are an issue, the Zoom version (2-3 hours) works incredibly well and makes it much easier for participants to attend.
Other book workshop tips 🧵:
Other book workshop tips 🧵:
I wish more schools had money to organize book workshops. I have attended one today that was intellectually so stimulating. As any good book workshop, it will not only make the manuscript that was being discussed better, but it will make the future work of all the participants better.
November 7, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Book workshops are *fantastic.* Whether or not resources are an issue, the Zoom version (2-3 hours) works incredibly well and makes it much easier for participants to attend.
Other book workshop tips 🧵:
Other book workshop tips 🧵:
Maybe we could all “quarantine the morning to read and write” and send non-urgent emails only after lunch? :)
"He protects what he calls his “first-thing” hours: the stretch of morning when thought still moves unfiltered. No meetings before eleven if he can help it, and ideally, no email either."
"He protects what he calls his “first-thing” hours: the stretch of morning when thought still moves unfiltered. No meetings before eleven if he can help it, and ideally, no email either."
Daniel Ziblatt writes the way he studies democracy: with discipline, patience, and a refusal to look away from complexity.
He writes with the conviction that democracy depends on the continuous work of understanding.
🧵
New on Etched in Marble: catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/etched-in-...
He writes with the conviction that democracy depends on the continuous work of understanding.
🧵
New on Etched in Marble: catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/etched-in-...
Etched in Marble: Daniel Ziblatt on Writing, Struggle, and How Democracy Depends on Both
Writers on the Forces That Shape Us and the Writing That Endures
catherineeunicedevries.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Maybe we could all “quarantine the morning to read and write” and send non-urgent emails only after lunch? :)
"He protects what he calls his “first-thing” hours: the stretch of morning when thought still moves unfiltered. No meetings before eleven if he can help it, and ideally, no email either."
"He protects what he calls his “first-thing” hours: the stretch of morning when thought still moves unfiltered. No meetings before eleven if he can help it, and ideally, no email either."
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball!
This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
Economics Literature Search
Full-text search across 15,000+ papers from top economics journals and NBER working papers. Track how empirical methods have evolved over time.
paulgp.com
November 2, 2025 at 4:43 AM
Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball!
This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...