Jonathan Parker
@drjparker.bsky.social
Political scientist, lecturer UofG. Parties, elections, Spanish & Scottish politics. Consensus democracy at any cost. Views my own.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Labour is desperately trying to appeal to Reform supporters. In October, we asked people in the UK if they perceive a party as a "party for someone like them". Only very few people say this for both Labour and Reform. The correlation is negative. Labour is chasing an electorate that does not exist.
November 21, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Labour is desperately trying to appeal to Reform supporters. In October, we asked people in the UK if they perceive a party as a "party for someone like them". Only very few people say this for both Labour and Reform. The correlation is negative. Labour is chasing an electorate that does not exist.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
“Let me be really clear – every minute that’s not spent talking about and dealing with the cost of living is a minute wasted of the political work of this government” is actually really good advice from the Prime Minister. If only he'd listen to himself.
November 18, 2025 at 3:25 PM
“Let me be really clear – every minute that’s not spent talking about and dealing with the cost of living is a minute wasted of the political work of this government” is actually really good advice from the Prime Minister. If only he'd listen to himself.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Don't worry, more gimmicky policies based on a simple reading of issue polling will sort this out
NEW from Ipsos
Satisfaction with the PM remains unchanged since September, continuing to be the worst ever recorded by Ipsos for a Prime Minister, going back to 1977…
Satisfaction with the PM remains unchanged since September, continuing to be the worst ever recorded by Ipsos for a Prime Minister, going back to 1977…
November 16, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Don't worry, more gimmicky policies based on a simple reading of issue polling will sort this out
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Great research opportunity for anyone working on #Albania and #migration.
Apply by 24 November & feel free to boost and share!
www.wfd.org/vacancy-cons...
Apply by 24 November & feel free to boost and share!
www.wfd.org/vacancy-cons...
Researcher to explore and analyse migration trends in Albania
www.wfd.org
November 14, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Great research opportunity for anyone working on #Albania and #migration.
Apply by 24 November & feel free to boost and share!
www.wfd.org/vacancy-cons...
Apply by 24 November & feel free to boost and share!
www.wfd.org/vacancy-cons...
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
My first piece is out now: I argue Reform are the natural conclusion of 80 years of regressive immigration politics in Britain
Check it out, subscribe, and let me know what you think 😄: mikebankole.substack.com/p/reform-uk-...
Check it out, subscribe, and let me know what you think 😄: mikebankole.substack.com/p/reform-uk-...
Reform UK: A Monster Made by Labour and the Conservatives
Attempts to present Reform as an aberration miss the point: it’s the natural conclusion of eighty years of regressive immigration politics in Britain.
mikebankole.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 10:39 AM
My first piece is out now: I argue Reform are the natural conclusion of 80 years of regressive immigration politics in Britain
Check it out, subscribe, and let me know what you think 😄: mikebankole.substack.com/p/reform-uk-...
Check it out, subscribe, and let me know what you think 😄: mikebankole.substack.com/p/reform-uk-...
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Five parties within 11 percent of each other with a plurality based electoral system, Britain? Five? That's insane.
Our latest Westminster voting intention (19-20 Oct) has the Greens on their highest figure ever recorded by YouGov
Reform UK: 26% (-1 from 12-13 Oct)
Labour: 20% (=)
Conservatives: 17% (=)
Lib Dems: 15% (-1)
Greens: 15% (+2)
SNP: 4% (+1)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Reform UK: 26% (-1 from 12-13 Oct)
Labour: 20% (=)
Conservatives: 17% (=)
Lib Dems: 15% (-1)
Greens: 15% (+2)
SNP: 4% (+1)
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
October 21, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Five parties within 11 percent of each other with a plurality based electoral system, Britain? Five? That's insane.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Indeed. A thing which is deeply weird about the government at the moment is how they will do something where you go 'makes sense, this will help you turn things around' and then they will immediately relapse. It's like they're trying and failing to quit smoking.
September 27, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Indeed. A thing which is deeply weird about the government at the moment is how they will do something where you go 'makes sense, this will help you turn things around' and then they will immediately relapse. It's like they're trying and failing to quit smoking.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
“The experiment nuances it by showing that the SD could have won support for a pro-immigration platform, if they had moralised their messaging. The study shows that by framing pro-immigration policies as a matter of what is ‘fair’ and ‘decent’, they can compete with anti-immigration messages.”
'drawing lessons should be done with caution and involves pitfalls for British politicians'. We hear a lot about how the Social Democrats succeeded on immigration in Denmark?
But is it a model we should emulate? @kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social explains. ukandeu.ac.uk/denmarks-mig...
But is it a model we should emulate? @kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social explains. ukandeu.ac.uk/denmarks-mig...
Denmark’s migration policy – an example to follow? - UK in a changing Europe
Kristina Bakkær Simonsen explains why countries feel they have something to learn from Denmark's strict migration policy, but argues that there are many key pitfalls.
ukandeu.ac.uk
September 25, 2025 at 6:07 PM
“The experiment nuances it by showing that the SD could have won support for a pro-immigration platform, if they had moralised their messaging. The study shows that by framing pro-immigration policies as a matter of what is ‘fair’ and ‘decent’, they can compete with anti-immigration messages.”
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Imagine you're in a weird romcom where Paul Hollywood is your rival. Do you go "let's have a bread baking competition" or do you emphasise your own relative strengths?
Because that in short has been the central problem with the traditional two's approach to anti-immigration voters and Reform UK.
Because that in short has been the central problem with the traditional two's approach to anti-immigration voters and Reform UK.
September 22, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Imagine you're in a weird romcom where Paul Hollywood is your rival. Do you go "let's have a bread baking competition" or do you emphasise your own relative strengths?
Because that in short has been the central problem with the traditional two's approach to anti-immigration voters and Reform UK.
Because that in short has been the central problem with the traditional two's approach to anti-immigration voters and Reform UK.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.
Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens).
Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).
These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).
These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
September 3, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Going to start calling other things that are exclusively British 'European-style'.
European-style 'Greggs'
European-style 'House of Lords'
European-style 'red telephone boxes'
European-style 'Doctor Who'
European-style 'Isthmian Premier Division'
European-style 'Kent'
European-style 'Greggs'
European-style 'House of Lords'
European-style 'red telephone boxes'
European-style 'Doctor Who'
European-style 'Isthmian Premier Division'
European-style 'Kent'
You mean the 'European-style "supplementary vote"' that was used for mayoral elections before the Conservatives changed it to FPTP in the (as it turned out, forlorn) hope that it might help them win lots more contests? That 'European style "supplementary vote"'?
July 13, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Going to start calling other things that are exclusively British 'European-style'.
European-style 'Greggs'
European-style 'House of Lords'
European-style 'red telephone boxes'
European-style 'Doctor Who'
European-style 'Isthmian Premier Division'
European-style 'Kent'
European-style 'Greggs'
European-style 'House of Lords'
European-style 'red telephone boxes'
European-style 'Doctor Who'
European-style 'Isthmian Premier Division'
European-style 'Kent'
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Here, @timbale.bsky.social does a great job spelling out why virtually every expert on the far right (that I have heard from) rejects “hard right” as terminology for these parties and their ideology. Editors should really stop this nonsense.
Far-right parties are doing well – so it’s important that we see them for what they are. Yet, in the UK, the label ‘hard right’ is catching on. Why is debateable. But, argues, @timbale.bsky.social, this misdescription sanitises far-right parties, and we should push back against it
bit.ly/4eLRBeC
bit.ly/4eLRBeC
Why we need to halt ‘hard right’ in its tracks
Far-right parties are doing well – so it’s important that we see them for what they are. Yet, in the UK, the label ‘hard right’ is catching on. Why is debateable. But, argues Tim Bale, it’s a misdescr...
bit.ly
July 10, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Here, @timbale.bsky.social does a great job spelling out why virtually every expert on the far right (that I have heard from) rejects “hard right” as terminology for these parties and their ideology. Editors should really stop this nonsense.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
For SD Parties this means that as long as their program is economically to the left, it does not matter much to working class voters what it includes culturally e.g. on immigration. In contrast, educated middle class voters will punish a program for being less culturally progressive.
July 7, 2025 at 9:50 AM
For SD Parties this means that as long as their program is economically to the left, it does not matter much to working class voters what it includes culturally e.g. on immigration. In contrast, educated middle class voters will punish a program for being less culturally progressive.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
What Abou-Chadi et al. show here is not just that conservative migration positions won't help social-democrats to attract voters, but also that left positions on retirement (that is allowing for early retirement) make social-democrats most attractive (and right positions make them less attracitve).
July 7, 2025 at 6:10 PM
What Abou-Chadi et al. show here is not just that conservative migration positions won't help social-democrats to attract voters, but also that left positions on retirement (that is allowing for early retirement) make social-democrats most attractive (and right positions make them less attracitve).
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Just received news that 27 people have been arrested in Parliament Square under the Terrorism Act 2000 for holding signs saying "I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action".
This is real police state behaviour.
This is real police state behaviour.
July 5, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Just received news that 27 people have been arrested in Parliament Square under the Terrorism Act 2000 for holding signs saying "I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action".
This is real police state behaviour.
This is real police state behaviour.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
This is profoundly illiberal. Yvette Cooper has always had authoritarian tendencies but this is outrageous.
Met police arrest activists holding signs referring to Palestine Action
Officers arrest protesters day after direct action group banned as terrorist organisation
www.theguardian.com
July 5, 2025 at 4:04 PM
This is profoundly illiberal. Yvette Cooper has always had authoritarian tendencies but this is outrageous.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
The fault and the blame for the damage that may be done by vote splitting lies with those parties that, for completely self-serving reasons, have failed to abolish the disgraceful FPTP system, not those refusing to be cowed into submission. If you're worried about the threat, give us real democracy!
July 3, 2025 at 11:40 PM
The fault and the blame for the damage that may be done by vote splitting lies with those parties that, for completely self-serving reasons, have failed to abolish the disgraceful FPTP system, not those refusing to be cowed into submission. If you're worried about the threat, give us real democracy!
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
This quite dramatic poll is:
Best ever Scottish Green share polled on all votes (big pinch of salt); not best seat projection due to SNP pressure on proportionality
Worst Conservative share I've ever seen on all votes; catastrophically dire seat projection, first time I've had them single-digits.
Best ever Scottish Green share polled on all votes (big pinch of salt); not best seat projection due to SNP pressure on proportionality
Worst Conservative share I've ever seen on all votes; catastrophically dire seat projection, first time I've had them single-digits.
New Scottish Parliament poll, Ipsos 12-18 Jun (changes vs 25-31 Jan 24(!)):
List:
SNP ~ 26% (-7)
Lab ~ 22% (-9)
RUK ~ 16% (+14)
Grn ~ 15% (+4)
Con ~ 10% (-3)
LD ~ 8% (+1)
Alba ~ 2% (+1)
Const:
SNP ~ 34% (-5)
Lab ~ 23% (-7)
RUK ~ 14% (+13)
Con ~ 10% (-4)
Grn ~ 9% (+3)
LD ~ 9% (+2)
Alba ~ 1% (nc)
List:
SNP ~ 26% (-7)
Lab ~ 22% (-9)
RUK ~ 16% (+14)
Grn ~ 15% (+4)
Con ~ 10% (-3)
LD ~ 8% (+1)
Alba ~ 2% (+1)
Const:
SNP ~ 34% (-5)
Lab ~ 23% (-7)
RUK ~ 14% (+13)
Con ~ 10% (-4)
Grn ~ 9% (+3)
LD ~ 9% (+2)
Alba ~ 1% (nc)
July 1, 2025 at 4:21 PM
This quite dramatic poll is:
Best ever Scottish Green share polled on all votes (big pinch of salt); not best seat projection due to SNP pressure on proportionality
Worst Conservative share I've ever seen on all votes; catastrophically dire seat projection, first time I've had them single-digits.
Best ever Scottish Green share polled on all votes (big pinch of salt); not best seat projection due to SNP pressure on proportionality
Worst Conservative share I've ever seen on all votes; catastrophically dire seat projection, first time I've had them single-digits.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
This why first-past-the-post is such a terrible system for electing a government.
Full tortuous analogy in my latest Guardian article: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Full tortuous analogy in my latest Guardian article: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
June 27, 2025 at 8:44 AM
This why first-past-the-post is such a terrible system for electing a government.
Full tortuous analogy in my latest Guardian article: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Full tortuous analogy in my latest Guardian article: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
🚨 Are young women becoming more left-wing & young men more right-wing?
We analyzed 32 European countries (1990–2023).
📊 Some show growing gaps—others don’t.
📊 Gaps tend to be bigger where gender equality is higher.
w/ @hudde.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1093/esr/...
We analyzed 32 European countries (1990–2023).
📊 Some show growing gaps—others don’t.
📊 Gaps tend to be bigger where gender equality is higher.
w/ @hudde.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1093/esr/...
June 16, 2025 at 12:02 PM
🚨 Are young women becoming more left-wing & young men more right-wing?
We analyzed 32 European countries (1990–2023).
📊 Some show growing gaps—others don’t.
📊 Gaps tend to be bigger where gender equality is higher.
w/ @hudde.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1093/esr/...
We analyzed 32 European countries (1990–2023).
📊 Some show growing gaps—others don’t.
📊 Gaps tend to be bigger where gender equality is higher.
w/ @hudde.bsky.social
👉 doi.org/10.1093/esr/...
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
We deserves change. Glasgow deserves change.
I’m fighting to be Glasgow’s newest socialist Green MSP, but I’m not fighting alone.
Vote Ellie #1
Vote Iris #2
Vote Seonad #3
We have a future to fight for 💚
Follow @radicalglagreens.bsky.social for updates.
I’m fighting to be Glasgow’s newest socialist Green MSP, but I’m not fighting alone.
Vote Ellie #1
Vote Iris #2
Vote Seonad #3
We have a future to fight for 💚
Follow @radicalglagreens.bsky.social for updates.
June 16, 2025 at 11:54 AM
We deserves change. Glasgow deserves change.
I’m fighting to be Glasgow’s newest socialist Green MSP, but I’m not fighting alone.
Vote Ellie #1
Vote Iris #2
Vote Seonad #3
We have a future to fight for 💚
Follow @radicalglagreens.bsky.social for updates.
I’m fighting to be Glasgow’s newest socialist Green MSP, but I’m not fighting alone.
Vote Ellie #1
Vote Iris #2
Vote Seonad #3
We have a future to fight for 💚
Follow @radicalglagreens.bsky.social for updates.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
Given ongoing discussion over where Reform UK supporters in Scotland are switching from, he's a Sankey diagram showing voter flows between the 2019 GE, 2024 GE, and constituency voting intention for the 2026 SE.
84% of Reform UK voters have switched from the Tories or Labour, just 12% from the SNP.
84% of Reform UK voters have switched from the Tories or Labour, just 12% from the SNP.
June 12, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Given ongoing discussion over where Reform UK supporters in Scotland are switching from, he's a Sankey diagram showing voter flows between the 2019 GE, 2024 GE, and constituency voting intention for the 2026 SE.
84% of Reform UK voters have switched from the Tories or Labour, just 12% from the SNP.
84% of Reform UK voters have switched from the Tories or Labour, just 12% from the SNP.
Reposted by Jonathan Parker
🧵 Where do Reform votes come from?
Following Reform's chunky share in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, it's worth looking at where those votes come from. We're not getting much polling in Scotland lately, but we can check the most recent Survation and Norstat (2nd - 5th and 27th - 30th of May)...
Following Reform's chunky share in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, it's worth looking at where those votes come from. We're not getting much polling in Scotland lately, but we can check the most recent Survation and Norstat (2nd - 5th and 27th - 30th of May)...
June 7, 2025 at 10:47 AM
🧵 Where do Reform votes come from?
Following Reform's chunky share in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, it's worth looking at where those votes come from. We're not getting much polling in Scotland lately, but we can check the most recent Survation and Norstat (2nd - 5th and 27th - 30th of May)...
Following Reform's chunky share in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, it's worth looking at where those votes come from. We're not getting much polling in Scotland lately, but we can check the most recent Survation and Norstat (2nd - 5th and 27th - 30th of May)...