HPR
@hpr69.bsky.social
I'm HPR. Cool ass dude, I like things, video games & being a cinemaphile about this, Space, and esp Politics
On the spectrum
He/Him, Cis, minor
pfp by @thewinterer.bsky.social
↙↙↙
On the spectrum
He/Him, Cis, minor
pfp by @thewinterer.bsky.social
↙↙↙
Pinned
Nailing the map to the wall
February 8, 2026 at 3:54 AM
Nailing the map to the wall
Reposted by HPR
one of the mind traps of late 2010s-early 2020s left of center online political keyboard warrioring was giving stalinists, maoists, most anarchists the time of day
they have reach parity w/liberals on twitter and bluesky and *some* academia settings, nowhere else, you seriously can just ignore them
they have reach parity w/liberals on twitter and bluesky and *some* academia settings, nowhere else, you seriously can just ignore them
February 8, 2026 at 3:41 AM
one of the mind traps of late 2010s-early 2020s left of center online political keyboard warrioring was giving stalinists, maoists, most anarchists the time of day
they have reach parity w/liberals on twitter and bluesky and *some* academia settings, nowhere else, you seriously can just ignore them
they have reach parity w/liberals on twitter and bluesky and *some* academia settings, nowhere else, you seriously can just ignore them
Reposted by HPR
look if actual R voters, not just Indys, are starting to vote Dem in any numbers at all shit’s gonna get real wonky in the fall
Just by looking at a cursory glance of the turnout by precinct, this doesn't look like a case of Democratic areas turning out more than Republican areas.
In fact, the opposite. Chasity Martinez won by winning over a bunch of Trump voters
In fact, the opposite. Chasity Martinez won by winning over a bunch of Trump voters
February 8, 2026 at 3:35 AM
look if actual R voters, not just Indys, are starting to vote Dem in any numbers at all shit’s gonna get real wonky in the fall
Reposted by HPR
Dems are now overperforming the 2024 lean of red districts by, uh, 30+ points in special elections
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
RESULT: Democrat Chasity Martinez wins a special election for a legislative seat in Louisiana, 62% to 38%.
This was a district that Trump carried by 13% last year, so a big overperformance by Dems, but the seat was already Dem-held.
This was a district that Trump carried by 13% last year, so a big overperformance by Dems, but the seat was already Dem-held.
February 8, 2026 at 3:18 AM
Dems are now overperforming the 2024 lean of red districts by, uh, 30+ points in special elections
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
Reposted by HPR
You know, just winning Trump +10+ districts in the South by 20-30 points.
Haha what the fuck
February 8, 2026 at 2:45 AM
You know, just winning Trump +10+ districts in the South by 20-30 points.
Reposted by HPR
the real answer here is congress is constitutional incapable of thinking more than two minutes ahead
it's kind of depressing that no one on the Democratic side of Congress has written to the state department to ask about the meeting with AB seperatists
February 8, 2026 at 1:36 AM
the real answer here is congress is constitutional incapable of thinking more than two minutes ahead
Reposted by HPR
They have no idea whats coming
Just by looking at a cursory glance of the turnout by precinct, this doesn't look like a case of Democratic areas turning out more than Republican areas.
In fact, the opposite. Chasity Martinez won by winning over a bunch of Trump voters
In fact, the opposite. Chasity Martinez won by winning over a bunch of Trump voters
February 8, 2026 at 3:19 AM
They have no idea whats coming
Reposted by HPR
Everyday I get more bullish Shapiro can get us the state senate
Governor hopeful Stacy Garrity says she’d work with Trump administration on Pennsylvania’s elections www.witf.org/2026/02/06/g...
Governor hopeful Stacy Garrity says she’d work with Trump administration on Pennsylvania’s elections | WITF
Republican gubernatorial hopeful Stacy Garrity said Friday afternoon that she would cooperate with President Donald Trump’s administration in ru […]
www.witf.org
February 8, 2026 at 3:22 AM
Everyday I get more bullish Shapiro can get us the state senate
Reposted by HPR
Southern racial polarization buckling tonite? Midwestern suburban collapse tonite queen? Latino thermonuclear reversion?
February 8, 2026 at 3:25 AM
Southern racial polarization buckling tonite? Midwestern suburban collapse tonite queen? Latino thermonuclear reversion?
Reposted by HPR
We're all desensitized to Democratic overperformances in special elections, but there does seem to have been a pretty significant shift in the past month
Dems are now overperforming the 2024 lean of red districts by, uh, 30+ points in special elections
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
RESULT: Democrat Chasity Martinez wins a special election for a legislative seat in Louisiana, 62% to 38%.
This was a district that Trump carried by 13% last year, so a big overperformance by Dems, but the seat was already Dem-held.
This was a district that Trump carried by 13% last year, so a big overperformance by Dems, but the seat was already Dem-held.
February 8, 2026 at 3:25 AM
We're all desensitized to Democratic overperformances in special elections, but there does seem to have been a pretty significant shift in the past month
Reposted by HPR
Theyre gonna lose the House and the Senate in November
February 8, 2026 at 3:24 AM
Theyre gonna lose the House and the Senate in November
Total GOP elimination in 2026
Final results in the Louisiana #HD60 (Trump+13) special election:
Chasity Martinez (D)- 62%
Brad Daigle (R)- 38%
Martinez holds this Trump+13 seat for the Democrats and puts in a nearly 40 point overperformance from 2024 in the process
Chasity Martinez (D)- 62%
Brad Daigle (R)- 38%
Martinez holds this Trump+13 seat for the Democrats and puts in a nearly 40 point overperformance from 2024 in the process
February 8, 2026 at 3:35 AM
Total GOP elimination in 2026
Reposted by HPR
NYT confirming MS NOW reporting:
Prosecutors began investigating Renee Good's killing, then Washington told them to stop.
Federal prosecutors had a warrant to collect evidence from Good's vehicle, but Trump leaders said to drop it. About a dozen prosecutors have since departed.
Prosecutors began investigating Renee Good's killing, then Washington told them to stop.
Federal prosecutors had a warrant to collect evidence from Good's vehicle, but Trump leaders said to drop it. About a dozen prosecutors have since departed.
Prosecutors Began Investigating Renee Good’s Killing. Washington Told Them to Stop.
www.nytimes.com
February 7, 2026 at 8:10 PM
NYT confirming MS NOW reporting:
Prosecutors began investigating Renee Good's killing, then Washington told them to stop.
Federal prosecutors had a warrant to collect evidence from Good's vehicle, but Trump leaders said to drop it. About a dozen prosecutors have since departed.
Prosecutors began investigating Renee Good's killing, then Washington told them to stop.
Federal prosecutors had a warrant to collect evidence from Good's vehicle, but Trump leaders said to drop it. About a dozen prosecutors have since departed.
Reposted by HPR
When Republicans do it / When Democrats do it
February 7, 2026 at 11:41 PM
When Republicans do it / When Democrats do it
Reposted by HPR
I’m doing exactly the same thing I did the week before, and the week before, and the week before. What changed is that you guys a found a way to rationalize the hostility again, because you WANT to be hostile. You’re no different than the Republicans who slowly convinced themselves Jan. 6 was a hoax
it was fun for a minute when he was doing his face turn
February 7, 2026 at 11:25 PM
I’m doing exactly the same thing I did the week before, and the week before, and the week before. What changed is that you guys a found a way to rationalize the hostility again, because you WANT to be hostile. You’re no different than the Republicans who slowly convinced themselves Jan. 6 was a hoax
Reposted by HPR
Whatever. I don’t care who it is as long as they ruin the lives of the people in charge now.
February 7, 2026 at 11:41 PM
Whatever. I don’t care who it is as long as they ruin the lives of the people in charge now.
Reposted by HPR
on the balance i think partisan gerrymandering is bad but the only way it ends is if democrats weaponize it against republicans everywhere they can. wiping out republican lawmakers in blue states might bring the GOP to the table to end the practice.
February 7, 2026 at 2:35 PM
on the balance i think partisan gerrymandering is bad but the only way it ends is if democrats weaponize it against republicans everywhere they can. wiping out republican lawmakers in blue states might bring the GOP to the table to end the practice.
Reposted by HPR
Polling Canada Federal Model Update:
🔴 LPC: 204 (+35)
🔵 CPC: 107 (-37)
⚜️ BQ: 26 (+4)
🟠 NDP: 4 (-3)
🟢 GPC: 2 (+1)
(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)
- February 7, 2026 -
Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
🔴 LPC: 204 (+35)
🔵 CPC: 107 (-37)
⚜️ BQ: 26 (+4)
🟠 NDP: 4 (-3)
🟢 GPC: 2 (+1)
(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)
- February 7, 2026 -
Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
Liberals Surge On The Model Amid Massive Polling Spike
Poilievre trails by twenty-nine points on preferred Prime Minister as the seat gap expands
open.substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 1:16 PM
Polling Canada Federal Model Update:
🔴 LPC: 204 (+35)
🔵 CPC: 107 (-37)
⚜️ BQ: 26 (+4)
🟠 NDP: 4 (-3)
🟢 GPC: 2 (+1)
(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)
- February 7, 2026 -
Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
🔴 LPC: 204 (+35)
🔵 CPC: 107 (-37)
⚜️ BQ: 26 (+4)
🟠 NDP: 4 (-3)
🟢 GPC: 2 (+1)
(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)
- February 7, 2026 -
Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
Reposted by HPR
Every single day for four years I have thought about the fact that the "left" party in 1920s/30s Germany looked at the nazis and then looked at the "liberal" party & said "well obviously our real enemy are the liberals & we'll cheer when the nazis toss them out of power"
Time is a flat circle
Time is a flat circle
February 7, 2026 at 6:02 PM
Every single day for four years I have thought about the fact that the "left" party in 1920s/30s Germany looked at the nazis and then looked at the "liberal" party & said "well obviously our real enemy are the liberals & we'll cheer when the nazis toss them out of power"
Time is a flat circle
Time is a flat circle
got a nice game pickup today.
February 7, 2026 at 6:29 PM
got a nice game pickup today.
Reposted by HPR
This is a blockbuster report. Last spring, the National Security Agency (NSA) detected evidence of an unusual phone call between an individual associated with foreign intelligence and a person close to Donald Trump, according to a whistleblower’s attorney briefed on the existence of the call.
NSA detected phone call between foreign intelligence and a person close to Trump
Whistleblower says that Tulsi Gabbard blocked agency from sharing report and delivered it to White House chief of staff
www.theguardian.com
February 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM
This is a blockbuster report. Last spring, the National Security Agency (NSA) detected evidence of an unusual phone call between an individual associated with foreign intelligence and a person close to Donald Trump, according to a whistleblower’s attorney briefed on the existence of the call.
Reposted by HPR
Virginia State Senator Louise Lucas is just a delight on every level
February 7, 2026 at 3:36 AM
Virginia State Senator Louise Lucas is just a delight on every level
Reposted by HPR
February 6, 2026 at 7:57 PM
Reposted by HPR
worth noting that if any of Virginia's 4 or California's 7 Republican reps want to save their seats, I am EXTREMELY confident that Speaker Jeffries could get a no-frills single issue national gerrymandering ban over to the Senate by let's say close of business Wednesday. Just say the word.
February 7, 2026 at 3:46 PM
worth noting that if any of Virginia's 4 or California's 7 Republican reps want to save their seats, I am EXTREMELY confident that Speaker Jeffries could get a no-frills single issue national gerrymandering ban over to the Senate by let's say close of business Wednesday. Just say the word.