Ian Stevens
@ianstev91.bsky.social
Former teacher and lawyer, Liberal, pro-Europe.🇪🇺
Reposted by Ian Stevens
“Leave support is falling. That’s an opportunity the PM should seize before pro-Europe challengers for the Labour leadership do”
Sound advice from Tom Baldwin
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Sound advice from Tom Baldwin
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
A warning for Keir Starmer: Brexit is falling apart, but if you are not bold on Europe, your Labour rivals will be | Tom Baldwin
Leave support is falling. That’s an opportunity the PM should seize before pro-Europe challengers for the Labour leadership do, says Tom Baldwin, author of Keir Starmer, The Biography
www.theguardian.com
December 18, 2025 at 8:54 AM
“Leave support is falling. That’s an opportunity the PM should seize before pro-Europe challengers for the Labour leadership do”
Sound advice from Tom Baldwin
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Sound advice from Tom Baldwin
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by Ian Stevens
The 'betrayal of Brexit' response to rejoining Erasmus is obviously predictable, and stupid (Brexit = leaving EU). But what's more striking is how *dated* it seems, like someone still waving a 'Thatcher out' placard.
December 17, 2025 at 8:13 PM
The 'betrayal of Brexit' response to rejoining Erasmus is obviously predictable, and stupid (Brexit = leaving EU). But what's more striking is how *dated* it seems, like someone still waving a 'Thatcher out' placard.
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Reposted by Ian Stevens
A good piece which adds to my sense that the political cost of dramatically reducing immigration and even reaching net emigration, is likely to be far greater for the government in terms of the impact on the economy, taxation and public services than the alternative
New post just out:
"The Overshoot"
Net migration is collapsing, and will fall further over the coming years. We could even have net emigration.
What does that mean for the country and the political narrative as we head towards the next election?
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
"The Overshoot"
Net migration is collapsing, and will fall further over the coming years. We could even have net emigration.
What does that mean for the country and the political narrative as we head towards the next election?
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
The Overshoot
What happens to politics, and the country, as net migration collapses?
open.substack.com
December 16, 2025 at 10:00 AM
A good piece which adds to my sense that the political cost of dramatically reducing immigration and even reaching net emigration, is likely to be far greater for the government in terms of the impact on the economy, taxation and public services than the alternative
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Dedicated to all those who say Ted tried to fool the British people by saying it was merely a Common Market.
Second, Heath was right when he said that Europe was always about much more than trade and, frankly, this is the case that Starmer should be making now. Wilson’s retreat from East of Suez was a recognition that we were a European power. Again that’s even truer now.
December 14, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Dedicated to all those who say Ted tried to fool the British people by saying it was merely a Common Market.
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Excellent piece
Among the many gems:
"for all that there has been some improvement in the tone of the UK-EU relationship under Labour, the domestic narrative remains one of suspicious, sullen instrumentalism."
Among the many gems:
"for all that there has been some improvement in the tone of the UK-EU relationship under Labour, the domestic narrative remains one of suspicious, sullen instrumentalism."
Is the tide turning? New post on my Brexit & Brexitism Blog. Renewed talk of a customs union may well come to nothing, but rapidly changing geo-politics mean the UK needs urgently to face up to the failure of the entire Brexit ‘strategy’: chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2025/12/is-t...
December 12, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Excellent piece
Among the many gems:
"for all that there has been some improvement in the tone of the UK-EU relationship under Labour, the domestic narrative remains one of suspicious, sullen instrumentalism."
Among the many gems:
"for all that there has been some improvement in the tone of the UK-EU relationship under Labour, the domestic narrative remains one of suspicious, sullen instrumentalism."
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Sobering but acute analysis.
"The US can no longer be relied on... Rather any US involvement will be transactional, and the UK needs to rapidly unpick 80 years of defence integration with, and dependence on, the US."
✍️ Andrew Dorman on Starmer's defence dilemma & the US National Security Strategy
ukandeu.ac.uk/starmers-def...
✍️ Andrew Dorman on Starmer's defence dilemma & the US National Security Strategy
ukandeu.ac.uk/starmers-def...
Starmer’s defence dilemma - UK in a changing Europe
Andrew M Dorman reflects on UK defence policy and argues that while the UK must deintegrate its defence capabilities from the US and implement the recommendations of this year's Strategic Defence Revi...
ukandeu.ac.uk
December 12, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Sobering but acute analysis.
Reposted by Ian Stevens
I can’t help thinking that when, in future, people ask what UK political leaders said as it became undeniable that US saw European liberal democracy as its no1 strategic foe, Starmer and others will regret that the answer is “not much, shuffled awkwardly, looked at their feet”.
December 10, 2025 at 9:38 AM
I can’t help thinking that when, in future, people ask what UK political leaders said as it became undeniable that US saw European liberal democracy as its no1 strategic foe, Starmer and others will regret that the answer is “not much, shuffled awkwardly, looked at their feet”.
Reposted by Ian Stevens
New Home Office impact assessment finds that cutting skilled and social care visas will cost the UK up to £10 billion with a central estimate of -£5.4 billion.
It would be good if this got even a fraction of the coverage devoted to the endless debate about boats, flags and Turkish barber shops
It would be good if this got even a fraction of the coverage devoted to the endless debate about boats, flags and Turkish barber shops
December 9, 2025 at 2:36 PM
New Home Office impact assessment finds that cutting skilled and social care visas will cost the UK up to £10 billion with a central estimate of -£5.4 billion.
It would be good if this got even a fraction of the coverage devoted to the endless debate about boats, flags and Turkish barber shops
It would be good if this got even a fraction of the coverage devoted to the endless debate about boats, flags and Turkish barber shops
Reposted by Ian Stevens
This is the best analysis I’ve read about Trump’s alignment with Putin, and the future for Ukraine and Europe
And it accords with my optimism. On the ground, Ukraine and Europe can resist the globalist oligarchs
arthursnell.substack.com/p/americas-w...
And it accords with my optimism. On the ground, Ukraine and Europe can resist the globalist oligarchs
arthursnell.substack.com/p/americas-w...
America's Weakness, Europe's Strength
The 'new' national security strategy is the admission of defeat from a declining country
arthursnell.substack.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:03 PM
This is the best analysis I’ve read about Trump’s alignment with Putin, and the future for Ukraine and Europe
And it accords with my optimism. On the ground, Ukraine and Europe can resist the globalist oligarchs
arthursnell.substack.com/p/americas-w...
And it accords with my optimism. On the ground, Ukraine and Europe can resist the globalist oligarchs
arthursnell.substack.com/p/americas-w...
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Plane from London to Rome connected with an American flight today. So there were lots of US citizens on board looking forward to enjoying the delights of Europe.
Felt like asking them... do you have any idea what the president of your country is trying to do to us? The damage he has in mind?
Felt like asking them... do you have any idea what the president of your country is trying to do to us? The damage he has in mind?
December 7, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Plane from London to Rome connected with an American flight today. So there were lots of US citizens on board looking forward to enjoying the delights of Europe.
Felt like asking them... do you have any idea what the president of your country is trying to do to us? The damage he has in mind?
Felt like asking them... do you have any idea what the president of your country is trying to do to us? The damage he has in mind?
Reposted by Ian Stevens
A propos: www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/new...
December 7, 2025 at 7:23 PM
A propos: www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/new...
Reposted by Ian Stevens
The Trump National Security Strategy is bonkers in many ways but this objective stood out:
"Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations"
Making their strategy of supporting radical right and extremist parties explicit.
"Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations"
Making their strategy of supporting radical right and extremist parties explicit.
December 5, 2025 at 12:06 PM
The Trump National Security Strategy is bonkers in many ways but this objective stood out:
"Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations"
Making their strategy of supporting radical right and extremist parties explicit.
"Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations"
Making their strategy of supporting radical right and extremist parties explicit.
Reposted by Ian Stevens
European reaction to the new American national strategy document
The headline, the main takeaway from a European viewpoint is this:
The transatlantic relationship as we know it is over. Yes, we kinda knew this. But this is now official US White House policy. Not a sppech, not a statement. The West as it used to be no longer exists.
The transatlantic relationship as we know it is over. Yes, we kinda knew this. But this is now official US White House policy. Not a sppech, not a statement. The West as it used to be no longer exists.
December 5, 2025 at 11:47 AM
European reaction to the new American national strategy document
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Reposted by Ian Stevens
I think that Labour resetting (more) towards the EU is very likely but I think the chances of Labour screwing that up are extremely likely.
December 3, 2025 at 11:14 AM
I think that Labour resetting (more) towards the EU is very likely but I think the chances of Labour screwing that up are extremely likely.
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Column. British politicians do a lot claiming to face the world as it is, while their actions speak of yearning for the world as it was. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Fear of facing the future has British politics stuck in the past | Rafael Behr
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves claim to be dealing with the world as it is, but seem to yearn for a world that has disappeared, says the Guardian columnist Rafael Behr
www.theguardian.com
December 3, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Column. British politicians do a lot claiming to face the world as it is, while their actions speak of yearning for the world as it was. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Today the news will be about the government's proposals for juries.
Please read this thread so as to be informed about the actual practical problems in the criminal justice system - problems which will not be solved by this misconceived and illiberal tinkering.
Please read this thread so as to be informed about the actual practical problems in the criminal justice system - problems which will not be solved by this misconceived and illiberal tinkering.
Here is a list of reasons why some of my hearings and trials this year have been delayed and kicked off into the long grass, stuck in our record court backlog. Serious allegations which will now be tried *years* after the event. 🧵👇
December 2, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Today the news will be about the government's proposals for juries.
Please read this thread so as to be informed about the actual practical problems in the criminal justice system - problems which will not be solved by this misconceived and illiberal tinkering.
Please read this thread so as to be informed about the actual practical problems in the criminal justice system - problems which will not be solved by this misconceived and illiberal tinkering.
Reposted by Ian Stevens
What a Public Inquiry Into Russian Influence in British Politics Must Also Investigate: Boris Johnson and Alexander Lebedev
If you think the Nathan Gill conviction is bad, wait to you hear about another Leave campaigner and his connections to Putin's inner circle
open.substack.com/pub/pdjukes/...
If you think the Nathan Gill conviction is bad, wait to you hear about another Leave campaigner and his connections to Putin's inner circle
open.substack.com/pub/pdjukes/...
What a Public Inquiry Into Russian Influence in British Politics Must Also Investigate: Boris Johnson and Alexander Lebedev
If you think the Gill conviction is bad, linking the Reform UK Party leader's closest aide to the Kremlin, wait to you hear about another Leave campaigner and his connections to Putin's inner circle
open.substack.com
December 1, 2025 at 12:00 PM
What a Public Inquiry Into Russian Influence in British Politics Must Also Investigate: Boris Johnson and Alexander Lebedev
If you think the Nathan Gill conviction is bad, wait to you hear about another Leave campaigner and his connections to Putin's inner circle
open.substack.com/pub/pdjukes/...
If you think the Nathan Gill conviction is bad, wait to you hear about another Leave campaigner and his connections to Putin's inner circle
open.substack.com/pub/pdjukes/...
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Why is Glasman in Labour, not Reform? Because these are the sort of ideas Farage's lot would come out with on a bad day.
Not sure - 14 years into project - Blue Labour ever previously set out actual proposals before, so this is new
1. Abolish Treasury
2. Leave ECHR
3. Closr/refound half of unis
4. Double army size for anti-EU alliance with Ukraine
5. PM to lead grooming inquiry with arrest powers + televised trials
1. Abolish Treasury
2. Leave ECHR
3. Closr/refound half of unis
4. Double army size for anti-EU alliance with Ukraine
5. PM to lead grooming inquiry with arrest powers + televised trials
November 30, 2025 at 8:02 AM
Why is Glasman in Labour, not Reform? Because these are the sort of ideas Farage's lot would come out with on a bad day.
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Brexit reminders. New post on my Brexit & Brexitism Blog. Brexit may not be in the headlines, but many current news stories carry reminders of it, including the Hallett Inquiry report, the Gill scandal, the Budget & the latest net migration figures: chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2025/11/brex...
November 28, 2025 at 7:24 AM
Brexit reminders. New post on my Brexit & Brexitism Blog. Brexit may not be in the headlines, but many current news stories carry reminders of it, including the Hallett Inquiry report, the Gill scandal, the Budget & the latest net migration figures: chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2025/11/brex...
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Kinnock voice - "I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions....and you end up in the grotesque chaos of a Labour government, a *Labour* government, rejecting visas for homeless 8 yr olds trying to joing their parents"
November 28, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Kinnock voice - "I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions....and you end up in the grotesque chaos of a Labour government, a *Labour* government, rejecting visas for homeless 8 yr olds trying to joing their parents"
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Funny to think a year ago, most Tory MPs thought Starmer had a clever but cynical plan to bank the changes Sunak made on immigration and declare victory, rather than to keep holing himself under the waterline.
PM describes net migration of 205k as "a step in the right direction". His govt has no public position on a sustainable level of immigration is, nor any known process to decide what, why & how. Starmer is now implying he wants it significantly lower
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Net migration drop ‘step in the right direction’ – Starmer
Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has fallen sharply since then.
www.standard.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Funny to think a year ago, most Tory MPs thought Starmer had a clever but cynical plan to bank the changes Sunak made on immigration and declare victory, rather than to keep holing himself under the waterline.
Reposted by Ian Stevens
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
November 27, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)