Jeff
@jefft.bsky.social
Seattle-based. Interested in housing. Really more of a reply guy than a poster, but the good kind of reply guy.
Our next mayor. Wow.
Waiting for the L8 at 5th and Denny… Can’t wait to break out the red paint!
November 12, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Our next mayor. Wow.
This is the biggest counter to Stancilism: the cost of becoming a homeowner literally doubled from 2020 to 2022.
If your picture of stable financial success in adulthood includes homeownership, it makes sense to feel incredibly discouraged and frustrated about your prospects.
If your picture of stable financial success in adulthood includes homeownership, it makes sense to feel incredibly discouraged and frustrated about your prospects.
Americans are still experiencing sticker-shock when it comes to housing, with mortgage payments about double pre-covid levels.
My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart
My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart
November 11, 2025 at 3:53 PM
This is the biggest counter to Stancilism: the cost of becoming a homeowner literally doubled from 2020 to 2022.
If your picture of stable financial success in adulthood includes homeownership, it makes sense to feel incredibly discouraged and frustrated about your prospects.
If your picture of stable financial success in adulthood includes homeownership, it makes sense to feel incredibly discouraged and frustrated about your prospects.
This is the most blackpilling theory of the current trajectory. Rightwing "populist" morons inflict widespread economic pain -> voters become more zero-sum and reactionary -> elect more right-wing populist morons -> more economic pain.
Indeed! Let me add that Brexit has led to levelling up by levelling down and this has -- if anything -- benefitted right-wing populists.
brexitcost.org/brexitcost.pdf
brexitcost.org/brexitcost.pdf
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
This is the most blackpilling theory of the current trajectory. Rightwing "populist" morons inflict widespread economic pain -> voters become more zero-sum and reactionary -> elect more right-wing populist morons -> more economic pain.
Reposted by Jeff
Monday drop.
WILSON LEADS FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL ELECTION!
It's neck and neck heading into the final count! She leads by 91 votes!
Only about 10,000 ballots remain, per reporting from @kromandavid.bsky.social. Cured ballots from the weekend will be counted tomorrow.
WILSON LEADS FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL ELECTION!
It's neck and neck heading into the final count! She leads by 91 votes!
Only about 10,000 ballots remain, per reporting from @kromandavid.bsky.social. Cured ballots from the weekend will be counted tomorrow.
November 10, 2025 at 11:54 PM
Monday drop.
WILSON LEADS FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL ELECTION!
It's neck and neck heading into the final count! She leads by 91 votes!
Only about 10,000 ballots remain, per reporting from @kromandavid.bsky.social. Cured ballots from the weekend will be counted tomorrow.
WILSON LEADS FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL ELECTION!
It's neck and neck heading into the final count! She leads by 91 votes!
Only about 10,000 ballots remain, per reporting from @kromandavid.bsky.social. Cured ballots from the weekend will be counted tomorrow.
This is sort of interesting. Who's the last Dem VP nominee who did NOT end up letting us down big time?
Al Gore fumbled the bag in 2000, probably by alienating voters. John Edwards: creep. Joe Biden? This whole mess, especially picking Harris as VP. Walz? Meh. Kaine and Lieberman: see below.
Al Gore fumbled the bag in 2000, probably by alienating voters. John Edwards: creep. Joe Biden? This whole mess, especially picking Harris as VP. Walz? Meh. Kaine and Lieberman: see below.
Whether it's Joe Lieberman going MAGA or Tim Kaine caving in on ACA, both vice-presidential nominees turned out to be assholes.
November 10, 2025 at 5:20 PM
This is sort of interesting. Who's the last Dem VP nominee who did NOT end up letting us down big time?
Al Gore fumbled the bag in 2000, probably by alienating voters. John Edwards: creep. Joe Biden? This whole mess, especially picking Harris as VP. Walz? Meh. Kaine and Lieberman: see below.
Al Gore fumbled the bag in 2000, probably by alienating voters. John Edwards: creep. Joe Biden? This whole mess, especially picking Harris as VP. Walz? Meh. Kaine and Lieberman: see below.
More evidence for my thesis on millennial superiority at media literacy: boomers and Gen X got pwned by cable news, especially Fox news, in the 2000s. Millennials watched it happen and learned to be skeptical media consumers.
Zoomers are now pickling their brains on short form video slop.
Zoomers are now pickling their brains on short form video slop.
A study earlier this month found that America’s more fragmented media landscape — particularly the takeoff of cable news — accounts for fully one third of the increase in cultural conflict in the US since the year 2000.
November 10, 2025 at 2:28 PM
More evidence for my thesis on millennial superiority at media literacy: boomers and Gen X got pwned by cable news, especially Fox news, in the 2000s. Millennials watched it happen and learned to be skeptical media consumers.
Zoomers are now pickling their brains on short form video slop.
Zoomers are now pickling their brains on short form video slop.
Why is this so true??? JFC
November 8, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Why is this so true??? JFC
Wow Trump coming out in favor of "just give people money".
Big, if true.
Big, if true.
Marxist/Leninist Mamdani: buses should be cheaper
Capitalist icon Trump: YOU HAVE NOTHING TO LOSE BUT YOUR CHAINS
Capitalist icon Trump: YOU HAVE NOTHING TO LOSE BUT YOUR CHAINS
November 8, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Wow Trump coming out in favor of "just give people money".
Big, if true.
Big, if true.
If the remaining ballots break just like today's batch, then that would put Wilson over the top... By less than 1,000 votes, or less than half a percent.
Wilson-mentum is real.
The gap in the Seattle Mayor's race has narrowed to just 4,300 votes, or 1.88%.
The gap in the Seattle Mayor's race has narrowed to just 4,300 votes, or 1.88%.
November 8, 2025 at 12:11 AM
If the remaining ballots break just like today's batch, then that would put Wilson over the top... By less than 1,000 votes, or less than half a percent.
The new Seattle City Council is shaping up to be pretty evenly balanced between @theurbanist.org -endorsed YIMBYs and NIMBYs.
Red= solid NIMBY (D1, D4, D7)
Yellow= NIMBY...ish (D3, D5)
Green= solid YIMBY (D6, AL)
Blue= flipped YIMBY (D2, AL)
Is this roughly accurate? An unstable 5-4 NIMBY edge?
Red= solid NIMBY (D1, D4, D7)
Yellow= NIMBY...ish (D3, D5)
Green= solid YIMBY (D6, AL)
Blue= flipped YIMBY (D2, AL)
Is this roughly accurate? An unstable 5-4 NIMBY edge?
November 6, 2025 at 4:22 AM
The new Seattle City Council is shaping up to be pretty evenly balanced between @theurbanist.org -endorsed YIMBYs and NIMBYs.
Red= solid NIMBY (D1, D4, D7)
Yellow= NIMBY...ish (D3, D5)
Green= solid YIMBY (D6, AL)
Blue= flipped YIMBY (D2, AL)
Is this roughly accurate? An unstable 5-4 NIMBY edge?
Red= solid NIMBY (D1, D4, D7)
Yellow= NIMBY...ish (D3, D5)
Green= solid YIMBY (D6, AL)
Blue= flipped YIMBY (D2, AL)
Is this roughly accurate? An unstable 5-4 NIMBY edge?
This is like the conclusion to an Encyclopedia Brown mystery, where he's caught Bugs Meany in a contradiction, unravelling his whole alibi.
Defense says that the officer's testimony was "very questionable" because he said the sandwich both exploded in spray of mustard and onions and also landed in its wrapper on the ground.
November 5, 2025 at 9:20 PM
This is like the conclusion to an Encyclopedia Brown mystery, where he's caught Bugs Meany in a contradiction, unravelling his whole alibi.
Incredible new frontiers in free speech on the other site.
Kat from the Free Press calls a post on the Argument "repulsive."
Jerusalem responds.
Kat: "Whoa whoa whoa it's unfortunate that you would police public response in this way."
Hasn't @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social written about this?
Kat from the Free Press calls a post on the Argument "repulsive."
Jerusalem responds.
Kat: "Whoa whoa whoa it's unfortunate that you would police public response in this way."
Hasn't @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social written about this?
October 31, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Incredible new frontiers in free speech on the other site.
Kat from the Free Press calls a post on the Argument "repulsive."
Jerusalem responds.
Kat: "Whoa whoa whoa it's unfortunate that you would police public response in this way."
Hasn't @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social written about this?
Kat from the Free Press calls a post on the Argument "repulsive."
Jerusalem responds.
Kat: "Whoa whoa whoa it's unfortunate that you would police public response in this way."
Hasn't @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social written about this?
This was an entirely unexpected, encouraging, and fascinating read.
I don't know, I don't have a hot take except, wow. Good.
I don't know, I don't have a hot take except, wow. Good.
1/ We need to have a chat about Seattle Police and how they're handling the No Kings protests. They've been really… good. It's a marked departure in both tone and tactics from SPD's approach to protests in the past, and I think it could be a model for police forces nationwide.
…
…
Nearly 90,000 join Seattle’s ‘No Kings’ march
Rep. Pramila Jayapal called the moment a test of whether America can keep its republic.
www.king5.com
October 19, 2025 at 4:58 AM
This was an entirely unexpected, encouraging, and fascinating read.
I don't know, I don't have a hot take except, wow. Good.
I don't know, I don't have a hot take except, wow. Good.
Every Mariners batter: "well he's 2 for 20 in the postseason but one of those was the crucial go-ahead run in that 2-1 win last week."
Every Blue Jay: "he's 9 for 20 this series with OPS of 1.400, and has homered off this Seattle pitcher 5 times this year."
How is this series even tied?? 😭
Every Blue Jay: "he's 9 for 20 this series with OPS of 1.400, and has homered off this Seattle pitcher 5 times this year."
How is this series even tied?? 😭
October 17, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Every Mariners batter: "well he's 2 for 20 in the postseason but one of those was the crucial go-ahead run in that 2-1 win last week."
Every Blue Jay: "he's 9 for 20 this series with OPS of 1.400, and has homered off this Seattle pitcher 5 times this year."
How is this series even tied?? 😭
Every Blue Jay: "he's 9 for 20 this series with OPS of 1.400, and has homered off this Seattle pitcher 5 times this year."
How is this series even tied?? 😭
I can't believe number 61 was in fact "dumped here" to this pretty lonely mariners fan in Comerica Park.
And then he whipped out the 62 version 😭
And then he whipped out the 62 version 😭
Fan wearing a "Dump Here" jersey with 61 caught Cal's HR 🔥
Immediately changes into an identical 62 jersey
Immediately changes into an identical 62 jersey
October 8, 2025 at 2:28 AM
I can't believe number 61 was in fact "dumped here" to this pretty lonely mariners fan in Comerica Park.
And then he whipped out the 62 version 😭
And then he whipped out the 62 version 😭
This is really good.
All of these efforts of course run into challenges with the fractal divisions of the country, and depend on their creators' judgment calls about where to draw more distinctions.
Here, WA and OR painted with a much broader brush than CA and AZ, for instance.
All of these efforts of course run into challenges with the fractal divisions of the country, and depend on their creators' judgment calls about where to draw more distinctions.
Here, WA and OR painted with a much broader brush than CA and AZ, for instance.
This is the most accurate depiction of the Midwest to date. Wichita has always felt like the last Midwest city while also being the first plains city.
October 7, 2025 at 6:29 PM
This is really good.
All of these efforts of course run into challenges with the fractal divisions of the country, and depend on their creators' judgment calls about where to draw more distinctions.
Here, WA and OR painted with a much broader brush than CA and AZ, for instance.
All of these efforts of course run into challenges with the fractal divisions of the country, and depend on their creators' judgment calls about where to draw more distinctions.
Here, WA and OR painted with a much broader brush than CA and AZ, for instance.
Oof. Cal and Julio team up for 6 hits, while the entire rest of the team can't muster a single hit in 28 at-bats?
Brutal.
Brutal.
October 5, 2025 at 4:08 AM
Oof. Cal and Julio team up for 6 hits, while the entire rest of the team can't muster a single hit in 28 at-bats?
Brutal.
Brutal.
JCHS has a webinar in 30 minutes on how overly restrictive fire safety regulations are ... Overly restrictive and strangling apartment supply. Seems informed by the work of @holz-bau.bsky.social and @stephenjacobsmith.com .
harvard.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
harvard.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Building for Safety: Assessing Fire Codes in Multifamily Housing. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
While buildings codes have reduced the risk of dangerous fires in multifamily homes over time, some common aspects of fire codes, such as requiring two staircases in buildings taller than three storie...
harvard.zoom.us
October 3, 2025 at 3:45 PM
JCHS has a webinar in 30 minutes on how overly restrictive fire safety regulations are ... Overly restrictive and strangling apartment supply. Seems informed by the work of @holz-bau.bsky.social and @stephenjacobsmith.com .
harvard.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
harvard.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Jeff
5 years ago today: Seattle still had rivets locked into swings to prevent kids from playing outdoors. Many months after it was clear that it was mostly transmitted via aerosols, which was 100x worse indoors, rather than on UV-drenched surfaces outdoors.
Still mad about this public health failure.
Still mad about this public health failure.
September 29, 2025 at 12:09 AM
5 years ago today: Seattle still had rivets locked into swings to prevent kids from playing outdoors. Many months after it was clear that it was mostly transmitted via aerosols, which was 100x worse indoors, rather than on UV-drenched surfaces outdoors.
Still mad about this public health failure.
Still mad about this public health failure.
The vibes on the water taxi to the penultimate mariners regular season game: immaculate.
September 28, 2025 at 1:03 AM
The vibes on the water taxi to the penultimate mariners regular season game: immaculate.
Incredible icon-like Nayib Bukele clocks in the Salvadorean bakery. How have I never noticed these before?
More numerous than the tributes to San Óscar Arnulfo Romero.
More numerous than the tributes to San Óscar Arnulfo Romero.
September 27, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Incredible icon-like Nayib Bukele clocks in the Salvadorean bakery. How have I never noticed these before?
More numerous than the tributes to San Óscar Arnulfo Romero.
More numerous than the tributes to San Óscar Arnulfo Romero.
Oh wow.
You've likely seen the new $100,000 penalty on high-skill immigrant workers.
Here's the next, separate bomb the White House is dropping on high skill immigration, to be officially published *tomorrow*.
tl;dr: Most H-1Bs now inaccessible for entry-level jobs, e.g. new grads from US universities.
Here's the next, separate bomb the White House is dropping on high skill immigration, to be officially published *tomorrow*.
tl;dr: Most H-1Bs now inaccessible for entry-level jobs, e.g. new grads from US universities.
public-inspection.federalregister.gov
September 23, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Oh wow.
This suggests a very obvious potential confounder that also makes the new advice so dangerous: if maternal fever itself poses a risk to fetal health, we'd see the positive correlation between Tylenol and ASD; *and* that means "toughing it out" is much worse than reducing the fever with Tylenol.
So, here's what makes it even more ridiculous:
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
This is a study that shows that if you have a fever in the seond trimester and don't take fever-reducing medication (which means acetaminophen)...guess what your child is more likely to be.
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
This is a study that shows that if you have a fever in the seond trimester and don't take fever-reducing medication (which means acetaminophen)...guess what your child is more likely to be.
Prenatal fever and autism risk
Some studies suggest that prenatal infection increases risk of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). This study was undertaken in a prospective cohort in Norway to examine whether we could find evidence t...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
September 23, 2025 at 2:01 AM
This suggests a very obvious potential confounder that also makes the new advice so dangerous: if maternal fever itself poses a risk to fetal health, we'd see the positive correlation between Tylenol and ASD; *and* that means "toughing it out" is much worse than reducing the fever with Tylenol.
Noticed this on my ride in today. Routes toward South Lake Union (Amazonia) were weirdly deserted even at 8:40.
It seems a lot of people in Seattle are still doing the TWTh schedule in office, and either M, F, or both from home.
www.wsj.com/lifestyle/wo...
It seems a lot of people in Seattle are still doing the TWTh schedule in office, and either M, F, or both from home.
www.wsj.com/lifestyle/wo...
The Rush to Return to the Office Is Stalling
Microsoft, Paramount and other companies are stepping up calls to show up at work. Many of their employees are still phoning it in.
www.wsj.com
September 22, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Noticed this on my ride in today. Routes toward South Lake Union (Amazonia) were weirdly deserted even at 8:40.
It seems a lot of people in Seattle are still doing the TWTh schedule in office, and either M, F, or both from home.
www.wsj.com/lifestyle/wo...
It seems a lot of people in Seattle are still doing the TWTh schedule in office, and either M, F, or both from home.
www.wsj.com/lifestyle/wo...