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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Lions @ Chiefs injury report:

Chiefs have all players available.

Lions down a starting CB, Alim McNeill, who hasn't played at all this season, and two special teamers.

They also have a lengthy Questionable list, with two players who Did Not Practice (DNP) at all this week.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

All of Philly tonight:

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Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

Step one of my "crazy, longshot Giants playoff scenario" was upsetting the Eagles tonight...

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 3d

The New York Giants actually have lower odds than the Jets in FTN's playoff sims at just 1.1% -- the difference between the two conferences and a much harder schedule will do that. Hey, Jaxson Dart is kinda fun, though!

Let's go ahead and get THEM into the postseason too, why not.

A hypothetical scenario showing the New York Giants getting into the playoffs at 9-8.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

The New York Football Giants--who have a 0.1% chance to win the Super Bowl, tied for last place--are 9 minutes and 41 seconds away from taking down the 4th ranked team.

They took down the 7th ranked Chargers two weeks ago.

They lost to the Saints--a fellow 0.1 %'er--in between these two games.

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

*Updated with all the teams this time!*

Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?

Bills still leading, but lost 3 percentage points
Lions gained 2.5
Eagles lost 2.1
Chiefs gained 0.5, despite losing to the Jags

There are 13(!!) teams with Super Bowl odds under 1%. We are 5 weeks into the season.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

Yeah, makes sense. I’m using your function to return actual rankings from actual results, which it works for, but wasn’t its primary use case.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

Yeah, it's coin flip as final tiebreaker as default. I ran it a few times while creating this graphic, and noticed that team logos were shifting around 🤣

So I have the final tiebreaker as points scored.

nflseedR::nfl_standings(
schedules_subset,
ranks = "CONF",
tiebreaker_depth = "POINTS")

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟲 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯

🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: GB -14 vs CIN
🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: JAX -1.5 vs SEA
💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: DET @ KC (52.5 total)
😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: CLE @ PIT (37.5 total)

What game are you watching this week? 👀

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

Eh, week 1 is hard. Obviously record first, then strength of schedule (not very useful here), strength of victory (point diff), and finally total points scored.

Or at least I think that's how it goes. I'm using a premade function from nflverse.com that @mrcaseb.com made.

nflverse

nflverse is a collection of data and R packages designed for NFL analytics! - nflverse

nflverse.com

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Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Nate Tice @natetice.bsky.social · 2d

Tyquan Thornton's routes this year

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

Damn. Was filtering some teams out, for reasons, and forgot to remove that filter. Here's the updated version!! Miami is one of 13 teams under 1%!! But they're not the bottom team!

bsky.app/profile/jose...

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

*Updated with all the teams this time!*

Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?

Bills still leading, but lost 3 percentage points
Lions gained 2.5
Eagles lost 2.1
Chiefs gained 0.5, despite losing to the Jags

There are 13(!!) teams with Super Bowl odds under 1%. We are 5 weeks into the season.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

*Updated with all the teams this time!*

Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?

Bills still leading, but lost 3 percentage points
Lions gained 2.5
Eagles lost 2.1
Chiefs gained 0.5, despite losing to the Jags

There are 13(!!) teams with Super Bowl odds under 1%. We are 5 weeks into the season.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 2d

Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?

Bills still leading, but lost 3 percentage points
Lions gained 2.5
Eagles lost 2.1
Chiefs gained 0.5, despite losing to the Jags

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 3d

NFC Edition!

Wow, the NFC has been crazy this year!! Lions started off as the 15th ranked team, and now are 4th!
Commanders with a rough fall, but back on the upswing.
Seahawks with some nice movement too!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 3d

Ever wanted to see how conference seeding changes on a week-to-week basis? Well, here you go!

AFC Edition

Steelers, Jags, and Chiefs with some wild movement.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 3d

Now *this* is what analytics is all about!!!

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 3d

The New York Jets are the last winless team, as they've somehow underperformed their rock-bottom expectations. Their season is stone-cold dead. Their playoff odds are down to 2.1% on FTN.

2.1% isn't zero, though! What might that 2.1% look like?

A theoretical AFC scenario which has the Jets making the playoffs at 10-7.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 3d

Hey @doug-analytics.bsky.social!! You see this?!! There's still a chance!!

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 3d

Built this one back in the good ol' days when participation data was free! It was defunct for awhile until @ftnfantasy.com put out their charted all-22 participation data.

It's a lot of information all in one graphic.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 3d

Defense!

Nohl Williams goes in on 6 DB snaps almost exclusively this season, and certainly in this game. All were 3rd downs and presumably long.

CRW replaced Hicks for a drive, and Cook for two drives. Only got 2 total second half snaps.

I'm not seeing any meaningful patterns in the DL snaps.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 3d

Week 5 KC @ JAX Pillboxes!

Basically, if Brashard Smith is in, he's getting the ball.
Pacheco remains a 1st and 2nd down back.

Did you all realize the Chiefs 4th quarter go ahead TD drive didn't have any 3rd downs? Also, three 3 TE sets in a row.

No 6 OT snaps this game.

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Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 3d

He got bumped, for sure, but that ball had left his hands prior to the bump...

Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Ben Baldwin @rbsdm.com · 3d

Week 5 Objective NFL Power Rankings

If your power ranking doesn't still have the Chiefs in the top 5, are you even trying?

(note: Rams too high here because they play the no-Lamar Ravens next)