Pascal
pascallth.bsky.social
Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social
Political analyst

Right makes might

Substack: https://pascallth.substack.com/
Reposted by Pascal
And an opportunity to make this point again
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
November 25, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Reposted by Pascal
New: Three new ex-pupils come forward, on the record, to say Farage's racism as a teenager was targeted, persistent and nasty. Farage has denied targeting any individuals - but two of the men tell us they recall Farage abusing Peter Ettedgui.

w/ Dan Boffey, @drblacklock.bsky.social
Three more ex-pupils at school with Nigel Farage reject ‘banter’ claims
Exclusive: Dulwich college contemporaries ‘rubbish’ Reform UK leader’s suggestion alleged racist taunts not intended to hurt
www.theguardian.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:17 PM
And an opportunity to make this point again
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
November 25, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Reposted by Pascal
"Any idea that a sizable chunk of frozen Russian sovereign assets could be split between Russia and the United States as part of a peace deal is fundamentally wrong in law and in principle," said Iryna Mudra, deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's office in charge of legal matters.
Ukraine rejects using Russian assets as bargaining chip in peace talks
"Keeping the assets permanently 'on ice' or turning them into a bargaining chip between Russia and another power only prolongs the conflict," Iryna Mudra, deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's...
kyivindependent.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Reposted by Pascal
My latest this week on the essential role that Europe plays in peace talks for Ukraine and how a narrative of Europe being 'sidelined' misses the point
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
The myth of European powerlessness in Ukraine talks
A peace deal without Europe is impossible
pascallth.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:11 PM
I wonder if putting a huge chunk of green in the East under Russian control might hurt Europe's food security
Great map of European soil -- so many different things to pick up on.
November 25, 2025 at 10:23 AM
My latest this week on the essential role that Europe plays in peace talks for Ukraine and how a narrative of Europe being 'sidelined' misses the point
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
The myth of European powerlessness in Ukraine talks
A peace deal without Europe is impossible
pascallth.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Reported removal of limits on Ukrainian army is good, but most of it is still left open

Still, shows the idea Ukraine had to accept what was on offer last week was wrong
November 24, 2025 at 3:02 PM
The Geneva talks are really a case of reconstructing a joint transatlantic position on Ukraine after last week's split
The big take away from the Geneva talks is that this is no longer a take it or leave it ultimatum issued to Ukraine. Furthermore, as much as this was a "Russian proposal," the Kremlin also didn't just say yes either. They were also noncommittal, wanting revisions. It looks like Geneva talks will...
November 24, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Several headlines on the theme of 'progress in Ukraine peace talks'

But we know that the new text will likely be rejected by Russia, meaning we are no closer to peace

The real story is US-Europe reconciliation talks
November 24, 2025 at 7:48 AM
This is probably right in terms of how Washington sees it, but the opposite could actually be true - a leader who is weak at home will struggle much more to sell an unpopular deal and so has less room to make concessions
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing a challenge to his presidency as major corruption allegations rock the wartime leader’s innermost circle just as Washington ramps up pressure for him to agree to an unfavorable peace deal.
Zelensky has never been more vulnerable. Trump just upped the pressure.
It is the greatest challenge to Zelensky since the invasion as people demand a reorganization of a system that allowed corruption to flourish as they suffered.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 22, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Reposted by Pascal
⚡️Update: UK, France, Germany to join US-Ukraine talks in Switzerland.

Representatives from the U.K., France, and Germany will discuss Trump's new peace proposal at upcoming talks in Switzerland, the AFP reported. European officials will join a U.S. and Ukrainian delegation in Geneva on Nov. 23.
US-Ukraine 'consultations' on Trump's peace deal to begin in Switzerland 'in coming days,' Umerov says
Nine Ukrainian officials, including Andriy Yermak, Head of the President's Office, and Kyrylo Budanov, the country's military intelligence chief, are set to attend the meeting, according to a presiden...
kyivindependent.com
November 22, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Reposted by Pascal
On Holodomor Remembrance Day, Ukrainians light a candle at 4 pm
and place it on the windowsill to honor the millions who died in the 1932-1933 famine.

🕯️4 pm in Ukraine
November 22, 2025 at 2:07 PM
For a guy who is an ideological ally of Trump, this is probably as close to a rebuke as we can expect
Polish President Nawrocki on X: 'The emerging proposals to end Russia's war against Ukraine must take into account the fact that Russia is a country that does not honour agreements. The price of peace cannot in any way be the achievement of strategic goals by the aggressor: the Russian Federation.'
November 22, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Sounds like Zelensky won't bow to the threats from Washington
6/ We did not betray Ukraine in February 2022 and will not do it now, Zelenskyy said. He stated he is not alone in this difficult moment, that Ukrainians believe in their state and are united, which will help achieve dignified peace in negotiations with partners.
November 21, 2025 at 3:27 PM
'Support' is a very broad term

Likely means suspending intelligence sharing, which is unhelpful but doesn't stop Ukraine fighting

Nuclear option would be vetoing transfer of US equipment bought by other countries for Ukraine
November 21, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Reposted by Pascal
President Zelensky is currently holding a call with France’s Macron, Germany’s Merz and UK’s Starmer, the Ukrainian president’s office tells me. They are working to develop counter points to the Trump peace proposal that is very pro-Russian & filled with demands that are red lines for Kyiv & Europe.
November 21, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Good time to buy defence stocks then
Oil, gas & European defence stocks fall in response to US support for the plan.
- @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu says will “discuss the situation both w European leaders & w other leaders here at the sidelines of the G20”
- @eucopresident.consilium.europa.eu says plan not been "officially" shared with EU
November 21, 2025 at 10:54 AM
US input is very minimal here, which mostly consists of a greatest hits compilation from a Russia Today broadcast

Really vague provisions to support Ukraine's security, sharp detail to undermine it and no real brakes on Russia relaunching the war in just a few years
www.ft.com/content/79ee...
Read the full text of Trump’s 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan
Proposed deal would limit size of Ukrainian forces and calls on Kyiv to withdraw troops from eastern Donetsk
www.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Reposted by Pascal
Yes, Zelensky is under huge domestic pressure these days. However, the pressure isn't to "settle the war" but to show he'll accept anticorruption institutions' work. Watch for whether he fires Yermak rather than whether he'll agree to whatever "peace" plan Ru and Witkoff came up with.
November 19, 2025 at 3:10 PM
A very revealing remark in that report from a White House official - that what Europe thinks doesn't matter to them, only what Ukraine will accept

But when the financial and military support for Ukraine is coming from Europe, our view has quite a big impact on what Ukraine will accept
Ukraine is now in a position where it would have to accept a deal to end the war, no matter the terms. According to Politico, citing White House sources, the Trump team agreed on a plan with Moscow without involving Ukraine or Europe.
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
November 19, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Left-wing party takes mayoral post in Copenhagen from Social Democrats who held it for over 100 years
cphpost.dk/2025-11-19/n...
Sisse Marie Welling (SF) will be the new Mayor of Copenhagen. Social Democrats lose the capital after over 100 years - The Copenhagen Post
Sisse Marie Welling from Socialistisk Folkeparti (SF, the Socialist People’s Party) was appointed as the new lord mayor of Copenhagen. She announced the result at Copenhagen City Hall after overnight ...
cphpost.dk
November 19, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Timing will also likely be related to gains in Pokrovsk - to convince the Americans that Russia will win regardless
Maybe I’ve become more cynical with age, but it’s curious how Russia re-engages with peace talks whenever there’s the whiff of possible new US sanctions
November 19, 2025 at 9:02 AM
'Dmitriev expressed optimism about the deal's chances of success because, unlike past efforts, "we feel the Russian position is really being heard."'

Brace for another disaster of a 'peace' deal

www.axios.com/2025/11/19/u...
Scoop: U.S. secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine war
"We feel the Russian position is really being heard," Russia's envoy told Axios.
www.axios.com
November 19, 2025 at 8:18 AM
While in France Zelensky met with some local fishermen who donated fishing nets to help protect against drones

They gave him one of their gilets
November 18, 2025 at 9:29 PM