Per Nielsen
@perwagner.bsky.social
Economist and data scientist. Find my substack here: https://perwagner.substack.com
The only sure way to have peace is surrender. Lets not do that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVvgNs8tqI
The only sure way to have peace is surrender. Lets not do that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVvgNs8tqI
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Maybe the greatest example of the bizarro world in which we now live is that European states are maintaining the dangerous fiction that the US would fight for them, when the more likely use of US military force would be to kick Europe out of Greenland.
January 6, 2026 at 11:26 AM
Maybe the greatest example of the bizarro world in which we now live is that European states are maintaining the dangerous fiction that the US would fight for them, when the more likely use of US military force would be to kick Europe out of Greenland.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
They've made clear their profound hostility to Europe and European values. They've aligned with Russia over Ukraine and on the issue of NATO expansion. And now this - Miller, probably the single most consequential figure in the current administration, escalating on Greenland.
January 6, 2026 at 9:56 AM
They've made clear their profound hostility to Europe and European values. They've aligned with Russia over Ukraine and on the issue of NATO expansion. And now this - Miller, probably the single most consequential figure in the current administration, escalating on Greenland.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
It's not that NATO will collapse if the US invades Greenland; NATO is already dead. The Trump admin could not have been clearer about that over the last year. They refer to NATO as if they're not part of it. They've been threatening at least 1 NATO ally since they took office.
January 6, 2026 at 9:56 AM
It's not that NATO will collapse if the US invades Greenland; NATO is already dead. The Trump admin could not have been clearer about that over the last year. They refer to NATO as if they're not part of it. They've been threatening at least 1 NATO ally since they took office.
youtu.be/nzAcmc77js8?...
"Greenland will, in principle, be defended by NATO".
But, in practice, it will not. If he was serious about this, he would have left out the "in principle" qualifier.
"Greenland will, in principle, be defended by NATO".
But, in practice, it will not. If he was serious about this, he would have left out the "in principle" qualifier.
German Minister Says Greenland’s Protection Could Be Discussed Within NATO
YouTube video by The Indian Express
youtu.be
January 6, 2026 at 9:52 AM
youtu.be/nzAcmc77js8?...
"Greenland will, in principle, be defended by NATO".
But, in practice, it will not. If he was serious about this, he would have left out the "in principle" qualifier.
"Greenland will, in principle, be defended by NATO".
But, in practice, it will not. If he was serious about this, he would have left out the "in principle" qualifier.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
"International law died yesterday. And Europe helped kill it."
I think @davekeating.substack.com is essential reading these days:
"#vonderleyen completely ignored the fact that international law and the UN Charter had already, undeniably, been violated."
davekeating.substack.com/p/internatio...
I think @davekeating.substack.com is essential reading these days:
"#vonderleyen completely ignored the fact that international law and the UN Charter had already, undeniably, been violated."
davekeating.substack.com/p/internatio...
International law died yesterday. And Europe helped kill it.
Macron, Starmer and Meloni gave their stamp of approval to Trump's illegal invasion of Venezuela to run the country and take its oil. Who can take them seriously now on Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
davekeating.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 7:23 PM
"International law died yesterday. And Europe helped kill it."
I think @davekeating.substack.com is essential reading these days:
"#vonderleyen completely ignored the fact that international law and the UN Charter had already, undeniably, been violated."
davekeating.substack.com/p/internatio...
I think @davekeating.substack.com is essential reading these days:
"#vonderleyen completely ignored the fact that international law and the UN Charter had already, undeniably, been violated."
davekeating.substack.com/p/internatio...
Honestly, what would the EU and NATO countries do if the US just took over Greenland? Lets say, not outright annexation, but landing military in all major towns, taking over law enforcement and expelling danish military. Then claiming that they are just protecting Greenland from Russia/China because
January 5, 2026 at 5:47 PM
Honestly, what would the EU and NATO countries do if the US just took over Greenland? Lets say, not outright annexation, but landing military in all major towns, taking over law enforcement and expelling danish military. Then claiming that they are just protecting Greenland from Russia/China because
Reposted by Per Nielsen
I'm not one to cite Thucydides all the time, but the saying "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" bears repeating these days.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Turns out defending international law in a world of predators is impossible if you don't have sufficient force to defend yourself.
European weakness on full display by these horribly contorted responses from Merz, Macron and Starmer - neither condoning nor condemning US actions in Venezuela
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
January 5, 2026 at 2:55 PM
I'm not one to cite Thucydides all the time, but the saying "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" bears repeating these days.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
4/So what is going on? @segoddard.bsky.social and I argue the confusion is people using old models of global politics. This is not balancing or spheres of influence. It is international politics based on elite cliques rather than national interest i.e. neo-royalism.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System - Volume 79 Issue S1
www.cambridge.org
January 5, 2026 at 1:30 PM
4/So what is going on? @segoddard.bsky.social and I argue the confusion is people using old models of global politics. This is not balancing or spheres of influence. It is international politics based on elite cliques rather than national interest i.e. neo-royalism.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
It is not enough to simply say "I stand with the Danish PM".
What are European leaders willing to do to defend the Kingdom of Denmark from America?
1st question: will they finally agree to the French plan to station European troops in #Greenland now?
What are European leaders willing to do to defend the Kingdom of Denmark from America?
1st question: will they finally agree to the French plan to station European troops in #Greenland now?
Europe has two months to decide whether it will defend Denmark from US attack
"We'll worry about Greenland in about two months" Trump says after invading Venezuela, as White House policy chief Stephen Miller's wife suggests US occupation of the Danish territory is coming "soon"
davekeating.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 1:48 PM
It is not enough to simply say "I stand with the Danish PM".
What are European leaders willing to do to defend the Kingdom of Denmark from America?
1st question: will they finally agree to the French plan to station European troops in #Greenland now?
What are European leaders willing to do to defend the Kingdom of Denmark from America?
1st question: will they finally agree to the French plan to station European troops in #Greenland now?
Reposted by Per Nielsen
“In the past years,Cyprus got very close to the US, forming lots of defence relationships with them. That is going to cause tension if we're trying to create an EU that's independent of the US.We have Cyprus leading the EU presidency, and the US is building bases here. This is going to be a tension”
Cyprus’s EU presidency: seeking resilience in a new world order
Cyprus has assumed the presidency of the European Council at a volatile time for Europe, as international peace efforts struggle to end the war in Ukraine, the United States shifts its loyalties and…
www.rfi.fr
January 5, 2026 at 11:53 AM
“In the past years,Cyprus got very close to the US, forming lots of defence relationships with them. That is going to cause tension if we're trying to create an EU that's independent of the US.We have Cyprus leading the EU presidency, and the US is building bases here. This is going to be a tension”
Reposted by Per Nielsen
It's wild that the PM of a NATO member feels compelled to put out a statement like this vis-à-vis the US government.
January 4, 2026 at 8:23 PM
It's wild that the PM of a NATO member feels compelled to put out a statement like this vis-à-vis the US government.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Whenever Trump does something crazy, people try to rationalize it. Now, they're saying it was Venezuela's "heavy, sour crude" that made him kidnap Maduro. I think the truth is much scarier and less strategic: He simply enjoys the feeling of power and humiliating his opponents.
January 4, 2026 at 2:49 PM
Whenever Trump does something crazy, people try to rationalize it. Now, they're saying it was Venezuela's "heavy, sour crude" that made him kidnap Maduro. I think the truth is much scarier and less strategic: He simply enjoys the feeling of power and humiliating his opponents.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Not only have our European leaders refused to condemn Trump's illegal invasion of Venezuela and his plan to run it and take its oil, several (including Starmer, Macron & Meloni) seemed to give the invasion their stamp of approval.
A shameful day for Europe.
A shameful day for Europe.
A day that will live in infamy
The US has today bombed and invaded a sovereign country to execute regime change. European leaders are too terrified of Trump to condemn it. Will they react the same if the US invades Greenland?
davekeating.substack.com
January 4, 2026 at 2:27 AM
Not only have our European leaders refused to condemn Trump's illegal invasion of Venezuela and his plan to run it and take its oil, several (including Starmer, Macron & Meloni) seemed to give the invasion their stamp of approval.
A shameful day for Europe.
A shameful day for Europe.
In some ways, it seems the question we Europeans should be asking ourselves is: do we want to have a "sphere of influence" or do we wanna be someones "sphere of influence".
January 4, 2026 at 11:14 AM
In some ways, it seems the question we Europeans should be asking ourselves is: do we want to have a "sphere of influence" or do we wanna be someones "sphere of influence".
Reposted by Per Nielsen
From the wife of the White House Deputy Chief of Staff.
Europe, don't say you weren't warned.
Europe, don't say you weren't warned.
January 3, 2026 at 10:53 PM
From the wife of the White House Deputy Chief of Staff.
Europe, don't say you weren't warned.
Europe, don't say you weren't warned.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
These freaks want territorial expansion and they know Trump will do everything he can to deliver.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
January 3, 2026 at 9:22 PM
These freaks want territorial expansion and they know Trump will do everything he can to deliver.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
A reminder: it doesn't have to be this way.
Mexico has a hell of a lot more to lose than Europe by angering Trump. Yet this is the response of its president just now.
This isn't a global phenomenon. Why have Europeans proven to be so uniquely cowardly over the past year?
Mexico has a hell of a lot more to lose than Europe by angering Trump. Yet this is the response of its president just now.
This isn't a global phenomenon. Why have Europeans proven to be so uniquely cowardly over the past year?
January 3, 2026 at 8:09 PM
A reminder: it doesn't have to be this way.
Mexico has a hell of a lot more to lose than Europe by angering Trump. Yet this is the response of its president just now.
This isn't a global phenomenon. Why have Europeans proven to be so uniquely cowardly over the past year?
Mexico has a hell of a lot more to lose than Europe by angering Trump. Yet this is the response of its president just now.
This isn't a global phenomenon. Why have Europeans proven to be so uniquely cowardly over the past year?
European politicians need to wake up. They can't both proclaim international law and also not condemn aggression against Venezuela as contrary to international law.
Or, maybe time has come to abandon the idea of international law, take the consequences of this and build an actual European
Or, maybe time has come to abandon the idea of international law, take the consequences of this and build an actual European
January 3, 2026 at 7:56 PM
European politicians need to wake up. They can't both proclaim international law and also not condemn aggression against Venezuela as contrary to international law.
Or, maybe time has come to abandon the idea of international law, take the consequences of this and build an actual European
Or, maybe time has come to abandon the idea of international law, take the consequences of this and build an actual European
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Selv om Nicolás Maduro er en blodig diktator, er det her et brud på de internationale love og regler. Trump mener tydeligvis, at han må gøre, hvad han vil i hele den vestlige halvkugle. Og det lover altså ikke godt for Grønland.
January 3, 2026 at 3:31 PM
Selv om Nicolás Maduro er en blodig diktator, er det her et brud på de internationale love og regler. Trump mener tydeligvis, at han må gøre, hvad han vil i hele den vestlige halvkugle. Og det lover altså ikke godt for Grønland.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Today it is #Venezuela. Tomorrow it may be #Greenland.
Based on the behaviour of our current European leaders today and throughout 2025, there is no reason to assume they would do anything other than immediately surrender and accept the annexation.
Based on the behaviour of our current European leaders today and throughout 2025, there is no reason to assume they would do anything other than immediately surrender and accept the annexation.
A day that will live in infamy
The US has today bombed and invaded a sovereign country to execute regime change. European leaders are too terrified of Trump to condemn it. Will they react the same if the US invades Greenland?
davekeating.substack.com
January 3, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Today it is #Venezuela. Tomorrow it may be #Greenland.
Based on the behaviour of our current European leaders today and throughout 2025, there is no reason to assume they would do anything other than immediately surrender and accept the annexation.
Based on the behaviour of our current European leaders today and throughout 2025, there is no reason to assume they would do anything other than immediately surrender and accept the annexation.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Updated "Wall of Shame:" EU countries have been sending a flood of goods to Russia via Kyrgyzstan for 4 years now. And the EU wonders why it's always fighting for a seat at the table on Ukraine. You want to be treated like an adult, start acting like one...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-wal...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-wal...
January 3, 2026 at 1:12 PM
Updated "Wall of Shame:" EU countries have been sending a flood of goods to Russia via Kyrgyzstan for 4 years now. And the EU wonders why it's always fighting for a seat at the table on Ukraine. You want to be treated like an adult, start acting like one...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-wal...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-wal...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Remarkable interpretation of US law.
Marco Rubio is reportedly saying Maduro will stand trial in US courts.
Which means it’s now the US administration’s position that US courts can hold foreign presidents, but not the US president, accountable for crimes.
Which means it’s now the US administration’s position that US courts can hold foreign presidents, but not the US president, accountable for crimes.
January 3, 2026 at 12:53 PM
Remarkable interpretation of US law.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
The ‘rules‑based international order’ was underwritten—again, with exceptions—by American military restraint and structured power. That era is over. If Europeans want to preserve it, military power is like a dinner jacket: when it’s required, nothing else will do.
January 3, 2026 at 11:57 AM
The ‘rules‑based international order’ was underwritten—again, with exceptions—by American military restraint and structured power. That era is over. If Europeans want to preserve it, military power is like a dinner jacket: when it’s required, nothing else will do.