Tom Farrell
@tomfarrellpm.bsky.social
Adopted Scouser. Grew up in Africa with Americans. Studied Politics & International Relations with a focus on Global Security. Arsenal fan. Views my own.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
Worth remembering when looking at the horrific scenes in the US right now that both Reform and the Tories have pledged to bring in ICE-style organisations to the UK if they win power
January 24, 2026 at 10:33 PM
Worth remembering when looking at the horrific scenes in the US right now that both Reform and the Tories have pledged to bring in ICE-style organisations to the UK if they win power
Reposted by Tom Farrell
Yes. I think replies like this show the effectiveness of Blair and Corbyn both in defining “Old Labour” as something it wasn’t. But the actual reality and failure mode of “the governments run by the Labour right before 1994” were, well, like what we have now.
Starmer is running on Old Labour government apparently?
The pro-Starmer people on here are just visibly working backwards from their own self-perception and self-regard. I Am Sensible, all my critics are not. No, you are just defending a dysfunctional Old Labour government, sorry.
January 22, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Yes. I think replies like this show the effectiveness of Blair and Corbyn both in defining “Old Labour” as something it wasn’t. But the actual reality and failure mode of “the governments run by the Labour right before 1994” were, well, like what we have now.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
In a speech to the World Economic Forum, Mark Carney says middle powers such as Canada must accept that the rules-based international order is effectively dead, and great power rivalry with is here to stay. Key excerpt:
January 20, 2026 at 3:48 PM
In a speech to the World Economic Forum, Mark Carney says middle powers such as Canada must accept that the rules-based international order is effectively dead, and great power rivalry with is here to stay. Key excerpt:
Reposted by Tom Farrell
Why is Donald Trump changing his mind every five minutes and saying completely mad stuff an embarrassment for Keir Starmer? It feels like it should chiefly be seen as an embarrassment for the United States.
January 20, 2026 at 12:23 PM
Why is Donald Trump changing his mind every five minutes and saying completely mad stuff an embarrassment for Keir Starmer? It feels like it should chiefly be seen as an embarrassment for the United States.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
We should know by now not to respond to one of Trump’s weekend posts as a definitive statement of policy. The content is as outrageous as it is absurd. For that reason there will be strong pushback from markets, Congress, perhaps Supreme Court as well as European governments.
January 17, 2026 at 7:44 PM
We should know by now not to respond to one of Trump’s weekend posts as a definitive statement of policy. The content is as outrageous as it is absurd. For that reason there will be strong pushback from markets, Congress, perhaps Supreme Court as well as European governments.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
1/ Something which I don't think gets articulated clearly often enough is that a system where countries generally respect international sovereignty and territorial integrity is not pure charity or morality by the United States, but in its direct interests.
Despite it being the strongest bear.
Despite it being the strongest bear.
January 17, 2026 at 10:24 AM
1/ Something which I don't think gets articulated clearly often enough is that a system where countries generally respect international sovereignty and territorial integrity is not pure charity or morality by the United States, but in its direct interests.
Despite it being the strongest bear.
Despite it being the strongest bear.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
Good policy will almost always get you good comms, as long as you don't eff the latter up. Good comms will never get you good policy. Governments are re-elected on the basis of success and failure in policy. So focus on policy and get good people to communicate it.
One of the most astounding things about this government is their failure to grasp the primary lesson from the last one was so obviously "Don't mess about with Comms all the time, just do stuff that will probably work".
This is why there's a whole chapter in my book about the damage the grid has done to policy making.
January 17, 2026 at 10:14 AM
Good policy will almost always get you good comms, as long as you don't eff the latter up. Good comms will never get you good policy. Governments are re-elected on the basis of success and failure in policy. So focus on policy and get good people to communicate it.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
And I think liberals should stop taking the bait and ceding ground on immigration.
Immigration is good. Multiculturalism is good. Free trade is good. Stop being embarrassed to say so.
Immigration is good. Multiculturalism is good. Free trade is good. Stop being embarrassed to say so.
December 31, 2025 at 11:31 PM
And I think liberals should stop taking the bait and ceding ground on immigration.
Immigration is good. Multiculturalism is good. Free trade is good. Stop being embarrassed to say so.
Immigration is good. Multiculturalism is good. Free trade is good. Stop being embarrassed to say so.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
Important point: university isn't just for posh kids; Erasmus+ gives non-posh kids same chance as posh kids to study abroad, which they otherwise wdn't have; & covers vocational & other non-university training & education exchanges. And if more students come to the UK, that increases UK soft power.
I wish the Brexit dinosaurs would stop this "Erasmus is for posh kids" crap. Half the young population goes to university, these days, in UK and most of EU. And most of the half that doesn't is also eligible for Erasmus+, which covers schools, further education, adult learners and in-work training.
December 18, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Important point: university isn't just for posh kids; Erasmus+ gives non-posh kids same chance as posh kids to study abroad, which they otherwise wdn't have; & covers vocational & other non-university training & education exchanges. And if more students come to the UK, that increases UK soft power.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
A “Reform vs Not Reform” strategy is only going to work for Labour if they are seen as credibly “not Reform” by LD/Green curious voters. Every hardline intervention on immigration weakens that credibility but without persuading Reform curious voters.
December 12, 2025 at 12:35 PM
A “Reform vs Not Reform” strategy is only going to work for Labour if they are seen as credibly “not Reform” by LD/Green curious voters. Every hardline intervention on immigration weakens that credibility but without persuading Reform curious voters.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
‘The challenge of bloc politics is primarily around maximising strength within your own bloc… while staying moderate enough to avoid scaring voters in the other bloc into coordinating themselves more effectively & turning out in higher numbers.’ @samfr.bsky.social
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Six lessons from the 2024 election
And what they mean for the next one
samf.substack.com
December 3, 2025 at 8:49 AM
‘The challenge of bloc politics is primarily around maximising strength within your own bloc… while staying moderate enough to avoid scaring voters in the other bloc into coordinating themselves more effectively & turning out in higher numbers.’ @samfr.bsky.social
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Reposted by Tom Farrell
If people become insecure, we find they’re three times more likely to desert Labour than if they become more concerned about immigration. Around one-third of Britons felt economically insecure as of April 2025.
Focusing on immigration is a ‘red herring’ when financial security is so foundational.
Focusing on immigration is a ‘red herring’ when financial security is so foundational.
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
If people become insecure, we find they’re three times more likely to desert Labour than if they become more concerned about immigration. Around one-third of Britons felt economically insecure as of April 2025.
Focusing on immigration is a ‘red herring’ when financial security is so foundational.
Focusing on immigration is a ‘red herring’ when financial security is so foundational.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
Utterly surreal that a key part of the pre Budget narrative from the government hasn’t been ‘Russian planes keep buzzing the Essex coast, US support for NATO is looking shaky, and thanks to the Tories our army fits in Old Trafford - that’s why we need to raise taxes’.
November 26, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Utterly surreal that a key part of the pre Budget narrative from the government hasn’t been ‘Russian planes keep buzzing the Essex coast, US support for NATO is looking shaky, and thanks to the Tories our army fits in Old Trafford - that’s why we need to raise taxes’.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
If every leak were 'the Chancellor wants to do three big fiscal consolidations in her 2024, 2025 and 2026 budgets, so that by 2029 debt, interest rates, NHS waiting lists and the court backlog will be falling'....fine and good!
November 25, 2025 at 5:01 PM
If every leak were 'the Chancellor wants to do three big fiscal consolidations in her 2024, 2025 and 2026 budgets, so that by 2029 debt, interest rates, NHS waiting lists and the court backlog will be falling'....fine and good!
Reposted by Tom Farrell
The obvious best reply is to launch an EU-Ukraine negotiated peace deal w a return to 2000 borders and that Russia disarms and gives up its nukes
FT: 'The Trump administration has told Ukrainian and European officials there is little room to negotiate on its plan to end Russia’s war. "We are not negotiating details", US army secretary Daniel Driscoll told European ambassadors and western officials at a volatile meeting in Kyiv late on Friday.
November 22, 2025 at 10:36 AM
The obvious best reply is to launch an EU-Ukraine negotiated peace deal w a return to 2000 borders and that Russia disarms and gives up its nukes
Reposted by Tom Farrell
I just revisited Tony Blair's 'forces of conservativism' conference speech in 1999 - two years into office. It's such a clear headed narration that balances people's continued frustration and what the government had delivered.
November 17, 2025 at 12:35 AM
I just revisited Tony Blair's 'forces of conservativism' conference speech in 1999 - two years into office. It's such a clear headed narration that balances people's continued frustration and what the government had delivered.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
The Prime Minister said in September that we are at a fork in the road. These asylum proposals suggest we have taken the wrong turning.
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Asylum system in UK ‘out of control’ and dividing country, home secretary says
Shabana Mahmood to unveil new proposals modelled on Denmark’s controversial system
www.theguardian.com
November 16, 2025 at 5:45 PM
The Prime Minister said in September that we are at a fork in the road. These asylum proposals suggest we have taken the wrong turning.
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Reposted by Tom Farrell
Once again for those at the back - morally repugnant, politically catastrophic. It won't work, won't happen and will lose Labour even more support. Masterful.
Shabana Mahmood has vowed to end Britain’s “golden ticket” for asylum seekers by forcing people arriving illegally to wait 20 years before they can apply for permanent settlement
Shabana Mahmood: ‘Illegal migration is tearing Britain apart’
The home secretary is planning to introduce a 20-year wait for permanent stay to end a ‘golden ticket’ for asylum seekers
www.thetimes.com
November 16, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Once again for those at the back - morally repugnant, politically catastrophic. It won't work, won't happen and will lose Labour even more support. Masterful.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
I didn't say Trump is easy to beat. Presidential races are now close due to increasing partisan polarization. I said that Trump, the most unpopular president on record, is a bad politician who has been carried by external factors and, per data, has underperformed relative to normal Republicans.
Generally the dumbest political analysis you’ll ever see this deep into the Trump years will be from someone claiming “Trump is easy to beat”
Insane disqualifying cope to say he is a bad politician. How many times do you need to see him survive several things every week that would destroy every other politician’s career? External factors/bad opposition can’t explain that.
November 7, 2025 at 5:40 AM
I didn't say Trump is easy to beat. Presidential races are now close due to increasing partisan polarization. I said that Trump, the most unpopular president on record, is a bad politician who has been carried by external factors and, per data, has underperformed relative to normal Republicans.
Reposted by Tom Farrell
“every time theres a republican president the economy collapses” feels like pretty easy messaging on the economy
Congrats to everyone who put Republicans in charge "for the economy," the first three quarters of 2025 already had more layoffs than any of the years in which Biden or Obama was President except 2009 (when Dems were still cleaning up the prior Republican mess).
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 3, 2025 at 12:39 PM
“every time theres a republican president the economy collapses” feels like pretty easy messaging on the economy
Reposted by Tom Farrell
If Labour cannot denounce mass deportation of permanent residents, Idi Amin style, what is the point of them?
October 20, 2025 at 8:21 PM
If Labour cannot denounce mass deportation of permanent residents, Idi Amin style, what is the point of them?
On Labour's immigration announcement this afternoon...
Things it won't do...
- tangibly reduce immigration by the 2029 General Election
Things it will do...
- harm Labour's growth prospects
- continue to raise the salience on migration
- normalize the migration policy of Labour's main rivals
😬
Things it won't do...
- tangibly reduce immigration by the 2029 General Election
Things it will do...
- harm Labour's growth prospects
- continue to raise the salience on migration
- normalize the migration policy of Labour's main rivals
😬
In addition to the normative points, I am once again tapping the sign marked 'net immigration to the UK in 2029 will still be, in relative terms, very high, and the government needs to have a position that allows it to defend what the Actually Existing UK looks like'.
Just fuck off with this. How about start the conversation by highlighting how much immigrants contribute to the UK - not least by propping up the NHS and social care system!
Also - forced volunteering is not volunteering, it's unpaid labour.
Also - forced volunteering is not volunteering, it's unpaid labour.
September 29, 2025 at 5:28 PM
On Labour's immigration announcement this afternoon...
Things it won't do...
- tangibly reduce immigration by the 2029 General Election
Things it will do...
- harm Labour's growth prospects
- continue to raise the salience on migration
- normalize the migration policy of Labour's main rivals
😬
Things it won't do...
- tangibly reduce immigration by the 2029 General Election
Things it will do...
- harm Labour's growth prospects
- continue to raise the salience on migration
- normalize the migration policy of Labour's main rivals
😬
Reposted by Tom Farrell
Is it a surprise that voters question what Starmer really believes in when he says <picture 1> in the evening after having said <picture 2> in the morning?
September 26, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Is it a surprise that voters question what Starmer really believes in when he says <picture 1> in the evening after having said <picture 2> in the morning?